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A digital filter is introduced which treats the problem of predictability versus time averaging in a continuous, seamless manner. This seamless filter (SF) is characterized by a unique smoothing rule that determines the strength of smoothing in dependence on lead time. The rule needs to be specified beforehand, either by expert knowledge or by user demand. As a result, skill curves are obtained that allow a predictability assessment across a whole range of time-scales, from daily to seasonal, in a uniform manner. The SF is applied to downscaled SEAS5 ensemble forecasts for two focus regions in or near the tropical belt, the river basins of the Karun in Iran and the Sao Francisco in Brazil. Both are characterized by strong seasonality and semi-aridity, so that predictability across various time-scales is in high demand. Among other things, it is found that from the start of the water year (autumn), areal precipitation is predictable with good skill for the Karun basin two and a half months ahead; for the Sao Francisco it is only one month, longer-term prediction skill is just above the critical level.
This paper analyzes a specific section of Martial’s Apophoreta (Book 14), the ‘list’ of fourteen literary works that the poet-persona suggests to the reader as potentially suitable presents to give to friends on the occasion of the Saturnalia. It focuses strictly on the literary aspects of the poems and their underlying carnivalesque poetics. This includes an assessment of the logic of the poems’ arrangement and alleged inconsistencies. It is suggested that the section be read as a complex statement of Martial’s on various works and genres of Greek and Roman literature. The last couplet of the section (14.196), a certain Calvus’ work ‘On the use of cold water’ (De aquae frigidae usu), which is unidentifiable, receives particular attention, for previous scholarship has wasted a lot of ink on guessing what kind of work this may have been, thereby losing touch with the rich (meta-)poetics the couplet actually conveys.
Obligate human pathogenic Neisseria gonorrhoeae are the second most frequent bacterial cause of sexually transmitted diseases. These bacteria invade different mucosal tissues and occasionally disseminate into the bloodstream. Invasion into epithelial cells requires the activation of host cell receptors by the formation of ceramide-rich platforms. Here, we investigated the role of sphingosine in the invasion and intracellular survival of gonococci. Sphingosine exhibited an anti-gonococcal activity in vitro. We used specific sphingosine analogs and click chemistry to visualize sphingosine in infected cells. Sphingosine localized to the membrane of intracellular gonococci. Inhibitor studies and the application of a sphingosine derivative indicated that increased sphingosine levels reduced the intracellular survival of gonococci. We demonstrate here, that sphingosine can target intracellular bacteria and may therefore exert a direct bactericidal effect inside cells.
A review of source models to further the understanding of the seismicity of the Groningen field
(2022)
The occurrence of felt earthquakes due to gas production in Groningen has initiated numerous studies and model attempts to understand and quantify induced seismicity in this region. The whole bandwidth of available models spans the range from fully deterministic models to purely empirical and stochastic models. In this article, we summarise the most important model approaches, describing their main achievements and limitations. In addition, we discuss remaining open questions and potential future directions of development.
The integration of MOOCs into the Moroccan Higher Education (MHE) took place in 2013 by developing different partnerships and projects at national and international levels. As elsewhere, the Covid-19 crisis has played an important role in accelerating distance education in MHE. However, based on our experience as both university professors and specialists in educational engineering, the effective execution of the digital transition has not yet been implemented. Thus, in this article, we present a retrospective feedback of MOOCs in Morocco, focusing on the policies taken by the government to better support the digital transition in general and MOOCs in particular. We are therefore seeking to establish an optimal scenario for the promotion of MOOCs, which emphasizes the policies to be considered, and which recalls the importance of conducting a delicate articulation taking into account four levels, namely environmental, institutional, organizational and individual. We conclude with recommendations that are inspired by the Moroccan academic contex that focus on the major role that MOOCs plays for university students and on maintaining lifelong learning.
The computation of such synthetic GFs is computationally and operationally demanding. As a consequence, the onthe-fly recalculation of synthetic GFs in each iteration of an optimisation is time-consuming and impractical. Therefore, the pre-calculation and efficient storage of synthetic GFs on a dense grid of source to receiver combinations enables the efficient lookup and utilisation of GFs in time-critical scenarios. We present a Python-based framework and toolkit - Pyrocko-GF - that enables the pre-calculation of synthetic GF stores, which are independent of their numerical calculation method and GF transfer function. The framework aids in the creation of such GF stores by interfacing a suite of established numerical forward modelling codes in seismology (computational back ends). So far, interfaces to back ends for layered Earth model cases have been provided; however, the architecture of Pyrocko-GF is designed to cover back ends for other geometries (e.g. full 3-D heterogeneous media) and other physical quantities (e.g. gravity, pressure, tilt). Therefore, Pyrocko-GF defines an extensible GF storage format suitable for a wide range of GF types, especially handling elasticity and wave propagation problems. The framework assists with visualisations, quality control, and the exchange of GF stores, which is supported through an online platform that provides many pre-calculated GF stores for local, regional, and global studies. The Pyrocko-GF toolkit comes with a well-documented application programming interface (API) for the Python programming language to efficiently facilitate forward modelling of geophysical processes, e.g. synthetic waveforms or static displacements for a wide range of source models.
Background
Relatively little is known about protective factors and the emergence and maintenance of positive outcomes in the field of adolescents with chronic conditions. Therefore, the primary aim of the study is to acquire a deeper understanding of the dynamic process of resilience factors, coping strategies and psychosocial adjustment of adolescents living with chronic conditions.
Methods/design
We plan to consecutively recruit N = 450 adolescents (12–21 years) from three German patient registries for chronic conditions (type 1 diabetes, cystic fibrosis, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis). Based on screening for anxiety and depression, adolescents are assigned to two parallel groups – “inconspicuous” (PHQ-9 and GAD-7 < 7) vs. “conspicuous” (PHQ-9 or GAD-7 ≥ 7) – participating in a prospective online survey at baseline and 12-month follow-up. At two time points (T1, T2), we assess (1) intra- and interpersonal resiliency factors, (2) coping strategies, and (3) health-related quality of life, well-being, satisfaction with life, anxiety and depression. Using a cross-lagged panel design, we will examine the bidirectional longitudinal relations between resiliency factors and coping strategies, psychological adaptation, and psychosocial adjustment. To monitor Covid-19 pandemic effects, participants are also invited to take part in an intermediate online survey.
Discussion
The study will provide a deeper understanding of adaptive, potentially modifiable processes and will therefore help to develop novel, tailored interventions supporting a positive adaptation in youths with a chronic condition. These strategies should not only support those at risk but also promote the maintenance of a successful adaptation.
Trial registration
German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), no. DRKS00025125. Registered on May 17, 2021.
Background
There is consistent evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with an increased psychosocial burden on children and adolescents and their parents. Relatively little is known about its particular impact on high-risk groups with chronic physical health conditions (CCs). Therefore, the primary aim of the study is to analyze the multiple impacts on health care and psychosocial well-being on these children and adolescents and their parents.
Methods
We will implement a two-stage approach. In the first step, parents and their underage children from three German patient registries for diabetes, obesity, and rheumatic diseases, are invited to fill out short questionnaires including questions about corona-specific stressors, the health care situation, and psychosocial well-being. In the next step, a more comprehensive, in-depth online survey is carried out in a smaller subsample.
Discussion
The study will provide insights into the multiple longer-term stressors during the COVID-19 pandemic in families with a child with a CC. The simultaneous consideration of medical and psycho-social endpoints will help to gain a deeper understanding of the complex interactions affecting family functioning, psychological well-being, and health care delivery.
In his “Essay on the Fluctuations in the Supplies of Gold” (1838) Humboldt presents a global history of the flow of precious metals from antiquity to the 19th century. This paper traces Humboldt’s economic thinking within his natural and historical research, starting with an outline of his educational background which incorporated late mercantilist and early liberal influences. It then discusses a world map and four charts drawn by Humboldt, which combine historical and contemporary statistical data into a cartographical vision of a global economic circuit. In a next step, the article explores Humboldt’s application of natural and historical research methods in the field of political economy, using the example of his 1838 essay. Finally, the article addresses Humboldt’s discussion of platinum, a precious metal whose limited natural distribution contradicted the idea of free global exchange.
Bacteria swim in sequences of straight runs that are interrupted by turning events. They drive their swimming locomotion with the help of rotating helical flagella. Depending on the number of flagella and their arrangement across the cell body, different run-and-turn patterns can be observed. Here, we present fluorescence microscopy recordings showing that cells of the soil bacterium Pseudomonas putida that are decorated with a polar tuft of helical flagella, can alternate between two distinct swimming patterns. On the one hand, they can undergo a classical push-pull-push cycle that is well known from monopolarly flagellated bacteria but has not been reported for species with a polar bundle of multiple flagella. Alternatively, upon leaving the pulling mode, they can enter a third slow swimming phase, where they propel themselves with their helical bundle wrapped around the cell body. A theoretical estimate based on a random-walk model shows that the spreading of a population of swimmers is strongly enhanced when cycling through a sequence of pushing, pulling, and wrapped flagellar configurations as compared to the simple push-pull-push pattern.