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Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.
Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories
(2021)
Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individualproteins are routinely garnered insingle-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies.They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells.Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data.Such time-series are most typically evaluated in terms of time-averaged mean-squareddisplacements (TAMSDs), which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Theirstatistical properties are different for differentphysical stochastic processes, thus allowing us toextract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of thestatistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implementand computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the TAMSD from itsensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations forBrownian motion (BM) to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets.By comparing the probability of deviations fordifferent data sets, we demonstrate how thetheoretical bound for BM reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. Weapply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracerbeads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Ouranalysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effectiveroutine test to reject the BM hypothesis and unveil relevant information on statistical propertiessuch as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations.
Thai MOOC academy
(2023)
Thai MOOC Academy is a national digital learning platform that has been serving as a mechanism for promoting lifelong learning in Thailand since 2017. It has recently undergone significant improvements and upgrades, including the implementation of a credit bank system and a learner’s eportfolio system interconnected with the platform. Thai MOOC Academy is introducing a national credit bank system for accreditation and management, which allows for the transfer of expected learning outcomes and educational qualifications between formal education, non-formal education, and informal education. The credit bank system has five distinct features, including issuing forgery-prevented certificates, recording learning results, transferring external credits within the same wallet, accumulating learning results, and creating a QR code for verification purposes. The paper discusses the features and future potential of Thai MOOC Academy, as it is extended towards a sandbox for the national credit bank system in Thailand.
Während des Praxissemesters sammeln Studierende ihre ersten längeren praktischen Erfahrungen als Lehrkraft. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass diese ersten Erfahrungen bereits prägend für die spätere Lehrtätigkeit sein können. Sei es als berufliche Orientierung oder als kleiner Schritt zur Herausbildung der eigenen Lehrpersönlichkeit. Herr Ingmar Thews widmet sich mit seiner Arbeit der wichtigen Frage, inwieweit Studierende Schule als Raum für „expansives“ oder „defensives“ Lernen erleben. Dabei führt er nach der subjektwissenschaftlichen Theorie von Klaus Holzkamp eine Inhaltsanalyse von Tonaufnahmen, welche während des Praxissemesters entstanden sind, durch. Die Ergebnisse bieten einen tieferen Einblick, wie Studierende Schule während ihrer Praxisphasen erleben. Dass defensives Lernen immer noch einen großen Teil der Erfahrungen der Studierenden ausmacht und zum Alltag von Schule gehört, ist eine Erkenntnis, die einen nachdenklich stimmen kann. Mit dem Seminarkonzept „Expansives Lernen fördern durch eine prozessorientierte Didaktik“ hat Herr Thews einen Rahmen geschaffen, der Studierenden die Möglichkeit gibt, über ihre negativen und positiven Erfahrungen zu sprechen und gleichzeitig über die Gestaltung expansiver Lernräume nachzudenken. Im Sinne einer prozessorientierten Didaktik würden wir uns freuen, wenn die Handreichung von Herrn Thews vielfältige Verwendung und Erweiterung in anderen Seminaren des Praxissemesters findet.
Compound inland flood events
(2022)
Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones, although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013 event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast-onset pluvial floods, which resulted in surface water flooding in some places due to limited capacities of the drainage systems and in destructive flash floods with high sediment loads and clogging in others, particularly in small steep catchments. Hence, different pathways, i.e. different routes that the water takes to reach (and potentially damage) receptors, in our case private households, can be identified in both events. They can thus be regarded as spatially compound flood events or compound inland floods. This paper analyses how differently affected residents coped with these different flood types (fluvial and pluvial) and their impacts while accounting for the different pathways (river flood, dike breach, surface water flooding and flash flood) within the compound events. The analyses are based on two data sets with 1652 (for the 2013 flood) and 601 (for the 2016 flood) affected residents who were surveyed around 9 months after each flood, revealing little socio-economic differences - except for income - between the two samples. The four pathways showed significant differences with regard to their hydraulic and financial impacts, recovery, warning processes, and coping and adaptive behaviour. There are just small differences with regard to perceived self-efficacy and responsibility, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support to improve property-level adaptation.
Strength training is an important means for performance development in young rowers. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a 9-week equal volume heavy-resistance strength training (HRST) versus strength endurance training (SET) in addition to regular rowing training on primary (e.g., maximal strength/power) and secondary outcomes (e.g., balance) in young rowers. Twenty-six female elite adolescent rowers were assigned to an HRST (n = 12; age: 13.2 ± 0.5 yrs; maturity-offset: +2.0 ± 0.5 yrs) or a SET group (n = 14; age: 13.1 ± 0.5 yrs; maturity-offset: +2.1 ± 0.5 yrs). HRST and SET comprised lower- (i.e., leg press/knee flexion/extension), upper-limbs (i.e., bench press/pull; lat-pull down), and complex exercises (i.e., rowing ergometer). HRST performed four sets with 12 repetitions per set at an intensity of 75–95% of the one-repetition maximum (1-RM). SET conducted four sets with 30 repetitions per set at 50–60% of the 1-RM. Training volume was matched for overall repetitions × intensity × training per week. Pre-post training, tests were performed for the assessment of primary [i.e., maximal strength (e.g., bench pull/knee flexion/extension 1-RM/isometric handgrip test), muscle power (e.g., medicine-ball push test, triple hop, drop jump, and countermovement jump), anaerobic endurance (400-m run), sport-specific performance (700-m rowing ergometer trial)] and secondary outcomes [dynamic balance (Y-balance test), change-of-direction (CoD) speed (multistage shuttle-run test)]. Adherence rate was >87% and one athlete of each group dropped out. Overall, 24 athletes completed the study and no test or training-related injuries occurred. Significant group × time interactions were observed for maximal strength, muscle power, anaerobic endurance, CoD speed, and sport-specific performance (p ≤ 0.05; 0.45 ≤ d ≤ 1.11). Post hoc analyses indicated larger gains in maximal strength and muscle power following HRST (p ≤ 0.05; 1.81 ≤ d ≤ 3.58) compared with SET (p ≤ 0.05; 1.04 ≤ d ≤ 2.30). Furthermore, SET (p ≤ 0.01; d = 2.08) resulted in larger gains in sport-specific performance compared with HRST (p < 0.05; d = 1.3). Only HRST produced significant pre-post improvements for anaerobic endurance and CoD speed (p ≤ 0.05; 1.84 ≤ d ≤ 4.76). In conclusion, HRST in addition to regular rowing training was more effective than SET to improve selected measures of physical fitness (i.e., maximal strength, muscle power, anaerobic endurance, and CoD speed) and SET was more effective than HRST to enhance sport-specific performance gains in female elite young rowers.
In Alexander von Humboldts Tagebüchern seiner berühmten Forschungsreise durch Spanisch-Amerika finden sich Bemerkungen und Hinweise für künftige Leser seiner Reisedarstellungen zu Problemen der Verpflegung. Zumeist werden Engpässe und Missstände erwähnt sowie Fragen soziopolitischer Situation verdeutlicht. Sie beziehen sich auf Extrembedingungen in stadtfernen Gebieten und im Kontakt mit den indigenen Trägern und Helfern während der einzelnen Exkursionen. Die Darstellungen der alltäglichen Gegebenheiten sind zugleich eine interessante Quelle für Verhaltensmuster der verschiedenen Schichten der spanischkolonialen Gesellschaft wie der Forschungsreisenden, die mit den Schwierigkeiten umzugehen hatten, sich anzupassen verstanden oder ihre eigenen Verhaltensmuster entwickelt haben. Damit ermöglichen Humboldts Aufzeichnungen zugleich auch auf diesem Gebiet manchen Blick auf den seither erfolgten Kulturwandel.
Im vorspanischen Zentralkolumbien, vor allem in der Muisca-Kultur, wurden Hochreliefs auf Steinpatrizen zur Abformung von Wachsmatrizen für den Guss in verlorener Form benutzt, die Alexander von Humboldt irrtümlich für „Kalendersteine“ der Muisca hielt. Der wissenschaftsgeschichtliche Überblick beschäftigt sich mit den Ursachen dieses Irrtums und dessen Überwindung.
Design thinking is a well-established practical and educational approach to fostering high-level creativity and innovation, which has been refined since the 1950s with the participation of experts like Joy Paul Guilford and Abraham Maslow. Through real-world projects, trainees learn to optimize their creative outcomes by developing and practicing creative cognition and metacognition. This paper provides a holistic perspective on creativity, enabling the formulation of a comprehensive theoretical framework of creative metacognition. It focuses on the design thinking approach to creativity and explores the role of metacognition in four areas of creativity expertise: Products, Processes, People, and Places. The analysis includes task-outcome relationships (product metacognition), the monitoring of strategy effectiveness (process metacognition), an understanding of individual or group strengths and weaknesses (people metacognition), and an examination of the mutual impact between environments and creativity (place metacognition). It also reviews measures taken in design thinking education, including a distribution of cognition and metacognition, to support students in their development of creative mastery. On these grounds, we propose extended methods for measuring creative metacognition with the goal of enhancing comprehensive assessments of the phenomenon. Proposed methodological advancements include accuracy sub-scales, experimental tasks where examinees explore problem and solution spaces, combinations of naturalistic observations with capability testing, as well as physiological assessments as indirect measures of creative metacognition.
The implementation of learning scenarios is a diversely challenging, frequently purely manual and effortful undertaking. In this contribution a process based view is used in scenario generation to overcome communication, coordination and technical gaps. A framework is provided to identify, define and integrate technological artefacts and learning content as modular, reusable building blocks along a modeled production process. The specific contribution is twofold: 1) the theoretical framework represents a unique basis for modularization of content and technology in order to enhance reusability, 2) the model based scenario definition is a starting point for automated implementation of learning scenarios in industrial learning environments that has not been created before.
From MOOC to “2M-POC”
(2023)
IFP School develops and produces MOOCs since 2014. After the COVID-19 crisis, the demand of our industrial and international partners to offer continuous training to their employees increased drastically in an energy transition and sustainable mobility environment that finds itself in constant and rapid evolution. Therefore, it is time for a new format of digital learning tools to efficiently and rapidly train an important number of employees. To address this new demand, in a more and more digital learning environment, we have completely changed our initial MOOC model to propose an innovative SPOC business model mixing synchronous and asynchronous modules. This paper describes the work that has been done to transform our MOOCs to a hybrid SPOC model. We changed the format itself from a standard MOOC model of several weeks to small modules of one week average more adapted to our client’s demand. We precisely engineered the exchanges between learners and the social aspect all along the SPOC duration. We propose a multimodal approach with a combination of asynchronous activities like online module, exercises, and synchronous activities like webinars with experts, and after-work sessions. Additionally, this new format increases the number of uses of the MOOC resources by our professors in our own master programs.
With all these actions, we were able to reach a completion rate between 80 and 96% – total enrolled –, compared to the completion rate of 15 to 28% – total enrolled – as to be recorded in our original MOOC format. This is to be observed for small groups (50–100 learners) as SPOC but also for large groups (more than 2500 learners), as a Massive and Multimodal Private Online Course (“2M-POC”). Today a MOOC is not a simple assembly of videos, text, discussions forums and validation exercises but a complete multimodal learning path including social learning, personal followup, synchronous and asynchronous modules. We conclude that the original MOOC format is not at all suitable to propose efficient training to companies, and we must re-engineer the learning path to have a SPOC hybrid and multimodal training compatible with a cost-effective business model.
An ‛Aukward’ tale
(2017)
One hundred and seventy-three years ago, the last two Great Auks, Pinguinus impennis, ever reliably seen were killed. Their internal organs can be found in the collections of the Natural History Museum of Denmark, but the location of their skins has remained a mystery. In 1999, Great Auk expert Errol Fuller proposed a list of five potential candidate skins in museums around the world. Here we take a palaeogenomic approach to test which—if any—of Fuller’s candidate skins likely belong to either of the two birds. Using mitochondrial genomes from the five candidate birds (housed in museums in Bremen, Brussels, Kiel, Los Angeles, and Oldenburg) and the organs of the last two known individuals, we partially solve the mystery that has been on Great Auk scholars’ minds for generations and make new suggestions as to the whereabouts of the still-missing skin from these two birds.
The great auk was once abundant and distributed across the North Atlantic. It is now extinct, having been heavily exploited for its eggs, meat, and feathers. We investigated the impact of human hunting on its demise by integrating genetic data, GPS-based ocean current data, and analyses of population viability. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes of 41 individuals from across the species' geographic range and reconstructed population structure and population dynamics throughout the Holocene. Taken together, our data do not provide any evidence that great auks were at risk of extinction prior to the onset of intensive human hunting in the early 16th century. In addition, our population viability analyses reveal that even if the great auk had not been under threat by environmental change, human hunting alone could have been sufficient to cause its extinction. Our results emphasise the vulnerability of even abundant and widespread species to intense and localised exploitation.
Die Universität Potsdam verwaltet seit 2015 einen DFG-geförderten Publikationsfonds. In den Publikationsjahren 2015 und 2017 wurden Outputanalysen durchgeführt. Open Access ist seit 2018 ein zentraler Bestandteil des Mittelverteilungsmodells. Der Artikel thematisiert die zentralen Erkenntnisse der letzten fünf Jahre und illustriert die entstandene Infrastruktur. Außerdem werden aktuelle Herausforderungen und mögliche Lösungsansätze der Transformation auf dem Weg hin zu 100 Prozent Open Access thematisiert.
With the growing number of online learning resources, it becomes increasingly difficult and overwhelming to keep track of the latest developments and to find orientation in the plethora of offers. AI-driven services to recommend standalone learning resources or even complete learning paths are discussed as a possible solution for this challenge. To function properly, such services require a well-defined set of metadata provided by the learning resource. During the last few years, the so-called MOOChub metadata format has been established as a de-facto standard by a group of MOOC providers in German-speaking countries. This format, which is based on schema.org, already delivers a quite comprehensive set of metadata. So far, this set has been sufficient to list, display, sort, filter, and search for courses on several MOOC and open educational resources (OER) aggregators. AI recommendation services and further automated integration, beyond a plain listing, have special requirements, however. To optimize the format for proper support of such systems, several extensions and modifications have to be applied. We herein report on a set of suggested changes to prepare the format for this task.
Viele Informatikstudierende sammeln bereits vor ihrem Studium berufliche Erfahrungen im Informatikbereich, ohne dass diese inhaltlich und didaktisch im Studium berücksichtigt werden. Dieser Beitrag geht der Frage nach, welche Kompetenzen aus beruflichen Vorqualifikationen bei Informatikstudierenden existieren und wie diese in Bezug zu Anerkennungsoptionen gesetzt werden können. Betrachtet werden: die pauschale Anerkennung, die auf erworbenen Zertifikaten beruht; die individuelle Anerkennung, bei der individuell erworbene Kompetenzen nachgewiesen werden; die Adaption von individuellen Lernwegen, die Teilkompetenzen der Studierenden berücksichtigt. Es wird eine Interviewstudie vorgestellt, in der Kompetenzen für ein Sample von Informatikstudierenden mit Vorqualifikation als Fachinformatiker/in erhoben und eine Zuordnung zu den Anerkennungsoptionen vorgenommen wurde. Für die präzisere Gestaltung von Anerkennungsprozessen und zur kritischen Reflexion der eingesetzten hochschuldidaktischen Konzepte wurde eine empirische Basis geschaffen. Die vorhandenen Konzepte richten sich traditionell an Abiturienten/ innen mit sehr geringem Informatikhintergrund und berücksichtigen die tatsächlich existierende Heterogenität der Studienanfänger/innen nicht angemessen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Befragten aus ihrer Vorqualifikation relevante fachliche Kompetenzen mitbringen, die mit den Anerkennungsoptionen korrespondieren und deren Weiterentwicklung dienen können. Darüber hinaus werden aus überfachlichen Kompetenzen wie Selbststeuerungskompetenzen weitere Erkenntnisse zur Studiengestaltung gewonnen.
In 1924, the Berlin ophthalmologist Arthur Czellitzer (1871–1943) and like-minded members of the local Jewish community founded the Society for Jewish Family Research. A year later, the Society launched the journal Jüdische Familienforschung (Jewish Family Research), edited by Czellitzer. The Society was an outstanding platform of professional academic and amateur researchers and promoted a type of Jewish genealogy and family history that was shaped by the historical-medical discourse of the time. The concepts and methods of both the biological sciences and Wissenschaft des Judentums shaped and defined the academic approach to family research and history in Czellitzer’s and the Society’s work. The Society soon became the leading international association for the academic Jewish genealogical research. Despite of its brutal end in 1938, Arthur Czellitzer’s and the Society’s works, the issues raised, and the methods they created shape Jewish family research and genealogy until today.
When the Jewish Theological Seminary in Breslau opened its doors in 1854, it established a novel form of rabbinical education: the systematic combination of Jewish studies at the seminary in parallel with university studies. The Breslau seminary became the model for most later institutions for rabbinical training in Europe and the United States. The seminaries were the new sites of modern Jewish scholarship, especially the academic study of Judaism (Wissenschaft des Judentums). Their function and goal were to preserve, (re)organize, and transmit Jewish knowledge in the modern age. As such, they became central nodes in Jewish scholarly networks. This case study highlights the multi-nodal connections between the Conservative seminaries in Breslau, Philadelphia, New York, Budapest, and Vienna. At the same time, it is intended to provide an example of the potential of transnational and transfer studies for the history of the Jewish religious learning in Europe and the United States.