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With the growing size and use of night light time series from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (DNB), it is important to understand the stability of the dataset. All satellites observe differences in pixel values during repeat observations. In the case of night light data, these changes can be due to both environmental effects and changes in light emission. Here we examine the stability of individual locations of particular large scale light sources (e.g., airports and prisons) in the monthly composites of DNB data from April 2012 to September 2017. The radiances for individual pixels of most large light emitters are approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of typically 15-20% of the mean. Greenhouses and flares, however, are not stable sources. We observe geospatial autocorrelation in the monthly variations for nearby sites, while the correlation for sites separated by large distances is small. This suggests that local factors contribute most to the variation in the pixel radiances and furthermore that averaging radiances over large areas will reduce the total variation. A better understanding of the causes of temporal variation would improve the sensitivity of DNB to lighting changes.
The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, ‘(in) that’, instead of (en) el que, ‘(in) which’, in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu’ux (‘where’) is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region.
Variational bayesian inference for nonlinear hawkes process with gaussian process self-effects
(2022)
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time-continuous point processes with history dependence. Here, we propose an extended model where the self-effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory types and follow a Gaussian Process. Whereas previous work either relies on a less flexible parameterization of the model, or requires a large amount of data, our formulation allows for both a flexible model and learning when data are scarce. We continue the line of work of Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes, and derive an inference algorithm by performing inference on an aggregated sum of Gaussian Processes. Approximate Bayesian inference is achieved via data augmentation, and we describe a mean-field variational inference approach to learn the model parameters. To demonstrate the flexibility of the model we apply our methodology on data from different domains and compare it to previously reported results.
This article proposes several conceptual frameworks for examining the widespread use of classical intertexts depicting the supernatural in popular media. Whether the supernatural is viewed as reality or simply a trope, it represents the human capacity and desire to explore worlds and meanings beyond the obvious and mundane. Representations of classical gods, heroes, and monsters evoke the power of mythic stories to probe and explain human psychology, social concerns, philosophical questions, and religious beliefs, including belief about the paranormal and supernatural. The entertainment value of popular media allows creators and audiences to engage with larger issues in non-dogmatic and playful ways that help them negotiate tensions among various beliefs and identities. This paper also gives an overview of the other articles in this journal issue, showing overlapping themes and patterns that connect with these tensions. By combining knowledge of classical myths in their original contexts with knowledge about contemporary culture, classical scholars contribute unique perspectives about why classical intertexts dominate in popular media today.
Relationships between climate, species composition, and species richness are of particular importance for understanding how boreal ecosystems will respond to ongoing climate change. This study aims to reconstruct changes in terrestrial vegetation composition and taxa richness during the glacial Late Pleistocene and the interglacial Holocene in the sparsely studied southeastern Yakutia (Siberia) by using pollen and sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) records. Pollen and sedaDNA metabarcoding data using the trnL g and h markers were obtained from a sediment core from Lake Bolshoe Toko. Both proxies were used to reconstruct the vegetation composition, while metabarcoding data were also used to investigate changes in plant taxa richness. The combination of pollen and sedaDNA approaches allows a robust estimation of regional and local past terrestrial vegetation composition around Bolshoe Toko during the last similar to 35,000 years. Both proxies suggest that during the Late Pleistocene, southeastern Siberia was covered by open steppe-tundra dominated by graminoids and forbs with patches of shrubs, confirming that steppe-tundra extended far south in Siberia. Both proxies show disturbance at the transition between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene suggesting a period with scarce vegetation, changes in the hydrochemical conditions in the lake, and in sedimentation rates. Both proxies document drastic changes in vegetation composition in the early Holocene with an increased number of trees and shrubs and the appearance of new tree taxa in the lake's vicinity. The sedaDNA method suggests that the Late Pleistocene steppe-tundra vegetation supported a higher number of terrestrial plant taxa than the forested Holocene. This could be explained, for example, by the "keystone herbivore" hypothesis, which suggests that Late Pleistocene megaherbivores were able to maintain a high plant diversity. This is discussed in the light of the data with the broadly accepted species-area hypothesis as steppe-tundra covered such an extensive area during the Late Pleistocene.
Ecological niche models (ENMs) are often used to investigate how climatic variables from known occurrence records can estimate potential species range distribution. Although climate-based ENMs provide critical baseline information, the inclusion of non-climatic predictors related to vegetation cover might generate more realistic scenarios. This assumption is particularly relevant for species with life-history traits related to forest habitats and sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we developed ENMs for 36 Atlantic Forest endemic birds considering two sets of predictor variables: (i) climatic variables only and (ii) climatic variables combined with the percentage of remaining native vegetation. We hypothesized that the inclusion of native vegetation data would decrease the potential range distribution of forest-dependent species by limiting their occurrence in regions harboring small areas of native vegetation habitats, despite otherwise favorable climatic conditions. We also expected that habitat restriction in the climate-vegetation models would be more pronounced for highly forest-dependent birds. The inclusion of vegetation data in the modeling procedures restricted the final distribution ranges of 22 out of 36 modeled species, while the 14 remaining presented an expansion of their ranges. We observed that species with high and medium forest dependency showed higher restriction in range size predictions between predictor sets than species with low forest dependency, which showed no alteration or range expansion. Overall, our results suggest that ENMs based on climatic and landscape variables may be a useful tool for conservationists to better understand the dynamic of bird species distributions in threatened and highly fragmented regions such as the Atlantic Forest hotspot.(c) 2021 Associacao Brasileira de Cie circumflex accent ncia Ecol ogica e Conservacao. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Shrub encroachment has far-reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning. We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound-specific carbon (delta C-13) and deuterium (delta D) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (delta(13)Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution. We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n-alkane distributions and the delta C-13 and delta(13)Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our delta D record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO(2) concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad-scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling-resistant taxa. In addition, grain-size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.
ndividuelle Selbstbestimmung ist Kernelement der Menschenwürde und damit ein Höchstwert der Verfassung. Dennoch scheint sich ihr Schutz auf die Abwesenheit des Staates zu beschränken. Tatsächlich ist sie zahlreichen Gefährdungen ausgesetzt. Der Beitrag will darum ihren Schutz auf das gebotene Niveau heben. Art. 1 Abs. 1 GG verpflichtet den Staat nicht nur zur Achtung, sondern auch zum Schutz der Menschenwürde. Will er diesen Auftrag ernstnehmen, muss er sich entsprechend in den Dienst der Selbstbestimmung seiner Bürger stellen. Dazu darf und muss er ihnen bisweilen Grenzen setzen, um ihre Verantwortungsfähigkeit zu fördern.
We present an X-ray-optical cross-correlator for the soft (> 150 eV) up to the hard X-ray regime based on a molybdenum-silicon superlattice. The cross-correlation is done by probing intensity and position changes of superlattice Bragg peaks caused by photoexcitation of coherent phonons. This approach is applicable for a wide range of X-ray photon energies as well as for a broad range of excitation wavelengths and requires no external fields or changes of temperature. Moreover, the cross-correlator can be employed on a 10 ps or 100 fs time scale featuring up to 50% total X-ray reflectivity and transient signal changes of more than 20%. (C) 2016 Author(s).