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How biased are our models?
(2021)
Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.
The phi(ev) is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation P-cum ranging from less than 5mm to more than 80 mm. Because of the high uncertainty of phi(ev) associated with the hydrograph separation method, phi(ev) is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on (theta) over bar (ini): during dry conditions phi(ev) is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of (theta) over bar (ini) = 34 vol % phi(ev) can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of phi(ev) with P-cum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results.
How insoluble inclusions and intersecting layers affect the leaching process within potash seams
(2021)
Potash seams are a valuable resource containing several economically interesting, but also highly soluble minerals. In the presence of water, uncontrolled leaching can occur, endangering subsurface mining operations. In the present study, the influence of insoluble inclusions and intersecting layers on leaching zone evolution was examined by means of a reactive transport model. For that purpose, a scenario analysis was carried out, considering different rock distributions within a carnallite-bearing potash seam. The results show that reaction-dominated systems are not affected by heterogeneities at all, whereas transport-dominated systems exhibit a faster advance in homogeneous rock compositions. In return, the ratio of permeated rock in vertical direction is higher in heterogeneous systems. Literature data indicate that most natural potash systems are transport-dominated. Accordingly, insoluble inclusions and intersecting layers can usually be seen as beneficial with regard to reducing hazard potential as long as the mechanical stability of leaching zones is maintained. Thereby, the distribution of insoluble areas is of minor impact unless an inclined, intersecting layer occurs that accelerates leaching zone growth in one direction. Moreover, it is found that the saturation dependency of dissolution rates increases the growth rate in the long term, and therefore must be considered in risk assessments.
Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation
(2019)
Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately lbn urban residents (30% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO2 emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10.
Geochemical processes change the microstructure of rocks and thereby affect their physical behaviour at the macro scale. A micro-computer tomography (micro-CT) scan of a typical reservoir sandstone is used to numerically examine the impact of three spatial alteration patterns on pore morphology, permeability and elastic moduli by correlating precipitation with the local flow velocity magnitude. The results demonstrate that the location of mineral growth strongly affects the permeability decrease with variations by up to four orders in magnitude. Precipitation in regions of high flow velocities is characterised by a predominant clogging of pore throats and a drastic permeability reduction, which can be roughly described by the power law relation with an exponent of 20. A continuous alteration of the pore structure by uniform mineral growth reduces the permeability comparable to the power law with an exponent of four or the Kozeny-Carman relation. Preferential precipitation in regions of low flow velocities predominantly affects smaller throats and pores with a minor impact on the flow regime, where the permeability decrease is considerably below that calculated by the power law with an exponent of two. Despite their complete distinctive impact on hydraulics, the spatial precipitation patterns only slightly affect the increase in elastic rock properties with differences by up to 6.3% between the investigated scenarios. Hence, an adequate characterisation of the spatial precipitation pattern is crucial to quantify changes in hydraulic rock properties, whereas the present study shows that its impact on elastic rock parameters is limited. The calculated relations between porosity and permeability, as well as elastic moduli can be applied for upscaling micro-scale findings to reservoir-scale models to improve their predictive capabilities, what is of paramount importance for a sustainable utilisation of the geological subsurface.
Ore precipitation in porphyry copper systems is generally characterized by metal zoning (Cu-Mo to Zn-Pb-Ag), which is suggested to be variably related to solubility decreases during fluid cooling, fluid-rock interactions, partitioning during fluid phase separation and mixing with external fluids. Here, we present new advances of a numerical process model by considering published constraints on the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility of Cu, Pb and Zn in the ore fluid. We quantitatively investigate the roles of vapor-brine separation, halite saturation, initial metal contents, fluid mixing and remobilization as first-order controls of the physical hydrology on ore formation. The results show that the magmatic vapor and brine phases ascend with different residence times but as miscible fluid mixtures, with salinity increases generating metal-undersaturated bulk fluids. The release rates of magmatic fluids affect the location of the thermohaline fronts, leading to contrasting mechanisms for ore precipitation: higher rates result in halite saturation without significant metal zoning, lower rates produce zoned ore shells due to mixing with meteoric water. Varying metal contents can affect the order of the final metal precipitation sequence. Redissolution of precipitated metals results in zoned ore shell patterns in more peripheral locations and also decouples halite saturation from ore precipitation.
The Argentine-German Geodetic Observatory (AGGO) is one of the very few sites in the Southern Hemisphere equipped with comprehensive cutting-edge geodetic instrumentation. The employed observation techniques are used for a wide range of geophysical applications. The data set provides gravity time series and selected gravity models together with the hydrometeorological monitoring data of the observatory. These parameters are of great interest to the scientific community, e.g. for achieving accurate realization of terrestrial and celestial reference frames. Moreover, the availability of the hydrometeorological products is beneficial to inhabitants of the region as they allow for monitoring of environmental changes and natural hazards including extreme events. The hydrological data set is composed of time series of groundwater level, modelled and observed soil moisture content, soil temperature, and physical soil properties and aquifer properties. The meteorological time series include air temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and derived reference evapotranspiration. These data products are extended by gravity models of hydrological, oceanic, La Plata estuary, and atmospheric effects. The quality of the provided meteorological time series is tested via comparison to the two closest WMO (World Meteorological Organization) sites where data are available only in an inferior temporal resolution. The hydrological series are validated by comparing the respective forward-modelled gravity effects to independent gravity observations reduced up to a signal corresponding to local water storage variation. Most of the time series cover the time span between April 2016 and November 2018 with either no or only few missing data points. The data set is available at https://doi.org/10.588/GFZ.5.4.2018.001 (Mikolaj et al., 2018).
The new in situ geodynamic laboratory established in the framework of the ICDP Eger project aims to develop the most modern, comprehensive, multiparameter laboratory at depth for studying earthquake swarms, crustal fluid flow, mantle-derived CO2 and helium degassing, and processes of the deep biosphere. In order to reach a new level of high-frequency, near-source and multiparameter observation of earthquake swarms and related phenomena, such a laboratory comprises a set of shallow boreholes with high-frequency 3-D seismic arrays as well as modern continuous real-time fluid monitoring at depth and the study of the deep biosphere.
This laboratory is located in the western part of the Eger Rift at the border of the Czech Republic and Germany (in the West Bohemia–Vogtland geodynamic region) and comprises a set of five boreholes around the seismoactive zone. To date, all monitoring boreholes have been drilled. This includes the seismic monitoring boreholes S1, S2 and S3 in the crystalline units north and east of the major Nový Kostel seismogenic zone, borehole F3 in the Hartoušov mofette field and borehole S4 in the newly discovered Bažina maar near Libá. Supplementary borehole P1 is being prepared in the Neualbenreuth maar for paleoclimate and biological research. At each of these sites, a borehole broadband seismometer will be installed, and sites S1, S2 and S3 will also host a 3-D seismic array composed of a vertical geophone chain and surface seismic array. Seismic instrumenting has been completed in the S1 borehole and is in preparation in the remaining four monitoring boreholes. The continuous fluid monitoring site of Hartoušov includes three boreholes, F1, F2 and F3, and a pilot monitoring phase is underway. The laboratory also enables one to analyze microbial activity at CO2 mofettes and maar structures in the context of changes in habitats. The drillings into the maar volcanoes contribute to a better understanding of the Quaternary paleoclimate and volcanic activity.
The new in situ geodynamic laboratory established in the framework of the ICDP Eger project aims to develop the most modern, comprehensive, multiparameter laboratory at depth for studying earthquake swarms, crustal fluid flow, mantle-derived CO2 and helium degassing, and processes of the deep biosphere. In order to reach a new level of high-frequency, near-source and multiparameter observation of earthquake swarms and related phenomena, such a laboratory comprises a set of shallow boreholes with high-frequency 3-D seismic arrays as well as modern continuous real-time fluid monitoring at depth and the study of the deep biosphere.
This laboratory is located in the western part of the Eger Rift at the border of the Czech Republic and Germany (in the West Bohemia-Vogtland geodynamic region) and comprises a set of five boreholes around the seismoactive zone. To date, all monitoring boreholes have been drilled. This includes the seismic monitoring boreholes S1, S2 and S3 in the crystalline units north and east of the major Novy Kostel seismogenic zone, borehole F3 in the Hartousov mofette field and borehole S4 in the newly discovered Bazina maar near Liba. Supplementary borehole P1 is being prepared in the Neualbenreuth maar for paleoclimate and biological research. At each of these sites, a borehole broadband seismometer will be installed, and sites S1, S2 and S3 will also host a 3-D seismic array composed of a vertical geophone chain and surface seismic array. Seismic instrumenting has been completed in the S1 borehole and is in preparation in the remaining four monitoring boreholes. The continuous fluid monitoring site of Hartousov includes three boreholes, F1, F2 and F3, and a pilot monitoring phase is underway. The laboratory also enables one to analyze microbial activity at CO2 mofettes and maar structures in the context of changes in habitats. The drillings into the maar volcanoes contribute to a better understanding of the Quaternary paleoclimate and volcanic activity.
Through its magnetic activity, the Sun governs the conditions in Earth's vicinity, creating space weather events, which have drastic effects on our space- and ground-based technology.
One of the most important solar magnetic features creating the space weather is the solar wind that originates from the coronal holes (CHs).
The identification of the CHs on the Sun as one of the source regions of the solar wind is therefore crucial to achieve predictive capabilities.
In this study, we used an unsupervised machine-learning method, k-means, to pixel-wise cluster the passband images of the Sun taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory in 171, 193, and 211 angstrom in different combinations.
Our results show that the pixel-wise k-means clustering together with systematic pre- and postprocessing steps provides compatible results with those from complex methods, such as convolutional neural networks.
More importantly, our study shows that there is a need for a CH database where a consensus about the CH boundaries is reached by observers independently.
This database then can be used as the "ground truth," when using a supervised method or just to evaluate the goodness of the models.
Deformation associated with plate convergence at subduction zones is accommodated by a complex system involving fault slip and viscoelastic flow. These processes have proven difficult to disentangle. The 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake occurred close to the Chilean coast within a dense network of continuously recording Global Positioning System stations, which provide a comprehensive history of surface strain. We use these data to assemble a detailed picture of a structurally controlled megathrust fault frictional patchwork and the three-dimensional rheological and time-dependent viscosity structure of the lower crust and upper mantle, all of which control the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation during postseismic deformation. These results enhance our understanding of subduction dynamics including the interplay of localized and distributed deformation during the subduction zone earthquake cycle.
Soil bacteria play a fundamental role in pedogenesis. However, knowledge about both the impact of climate and slope aspects on microbial communities and the consequences of these items in pedogenesis is lacking. Therefore, soil-bacterial communities from four sites and two different aspects along the climate gradient of the Chilean Coastal Cordillera were investigated. Using a combination of microbiological and physicochemical methods, soils that developed in arid, semi-arid, mediterranean, and humid climates were analyzed. Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Verrucomicrobia, and Planctomycetes were found to increase in abundance from arid to humid climates, while Actinobacteria and Gemmatimonadetes decreased along the transect. Bacterial-community structure varied with climate and aspect and was influenced by pH, bulk density, plant-available phosphorus, clay, and total organic-matter content. Higher bacterial specialization was found in arid and humid climates and on the south-facing slope and was likely promoted by stable microclimatic conditions. The presence of specialists was associated with ecosystem-functional traits, which shifted from pioneers that accumulated organic matter in arid climates to organic decomposers in humid climates. These findings provide new perspectives on how climate and slope aspects influence the composition and functional capabilities of bacteria, with most of these capabilities being involved in pedogenetic processes.
Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nagelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active thermokarst landforms in the Arctic and deliver a large amount of material to the Arctic Ocean. However, their contribution to the organic carbon (OC) budget is unknown. We provide the first estimate of the contribution of RTSs to the nearshore OC budget of the Yukon Coast, Canada, and describe the evolution of coastal RTSs between 1952 and 2011 in this area. We (1) describe the evolution of RTSs between 1952 and 2011; (2) calculate the volume of eroded material and stocks of OC mobilized through slumping, including soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC); and (3) estimate the OC fluxes mobilized through slumping between 1972 and 2011. We identified RTSs using high- resolution satellite imagery from 2011 and geocoded aerial photographs from 1952 and 1972. To estimate the volume of eroded material, we applied spline interpolation on an airborne lidar dataset acquired in July 2013. We inferred the stocks of mobilized SOC and DOC from existing related literature. Our results show a 73% increase in the number of RTSs and 14% areal expansion between 1952 and 2011. In the study area, RTSs displaced at least 16.6 x 10(6) m(3) of material, 53% of which was ice, and mobilized 145.9 x 10(6) kg of OC. Between 1972 and 2011, 49 RTSs displaced 8.6 x 10(3) m(3) yr(-1) of material, adding 0.6% to the OC flux released by coastal retreat along the Yukon Coast. Our results show that the contribution of RTSs to the nearshore OC budget is non-negligible and should be included when estimating the quantity of OC released from the Arctic coast to the ocean.
Natural gas hydrate occurrences contain predominantly methane; however, there are increasing reports of complex mixed gas hydrates and coexisting hydrate phases. Changes in the feed gas composition due to the preferred incorporation of certain components into the hydrate phase and an inadequate gas supply is often assumed to be the cause of coexisting hydrate phases. This could also be the case for the gas hydrate system in Qilian Mountain permafrost (QMP), which is mainly controlled by pores and fractures with complex gas compositions. This study is dedicated to the experimental investigations on the formation process of mixed gas hydrates based on the reservoir conditions in QMP. Hydrates were synthesized from water and a gas mixture under different gas supply conditions to study the effects on the hydrate formation process. In situ Raman spectroscopic measurements and microscopic observations were applied to record changes in both gas and hydrate phase over the whole formation process. The results demonstrated the effects of gas flow on the composition of the resulting hydrate phase, indicating a competitive enclathration of guest molecules into the hydrate lattice depending on their properties. Another observation was that despite significant changes in the gas composition, no coexisting hydrate phases were formed.
Understanding the key factors influencing the water quality of large river systems forms an important basis for the assessment and protection of cross-regional ecosystems and the implementation of adapted water management concepts. However, identifying these factors requires in-depth comprehension of the unique environmental systems, which can only be achieved by detailed water quality monitoring.
Within the scope of the joint science and sports event "Elbschwimmstaffel" (swimming relay on the river Elbe) in June/July 2017 organized by the German Ministry of Education and Research, water quality data were acquired along a 550 km long stretch of the Elbe River in Germany. During the survey, eight physiochemical water quality parameters were recorded in high spatial and temporal resolution with the BIOFISH multisensor system. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to identify and delineate processes influencing the water quality.
The BIOFISH dataset revealed that phytoplankton activity has a major impact on the water quality of the Elbe River in the summer months. The results suggest that phytoplankton biomass constitutes a substantial proportion of the suspended particles and that photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton is closely related to significant temporal changes in pH and oxygen saturation.
An evaluation of the BIOFISH data based on the combination of statistical analysis with weather and discharge data shows that the hydrological and meteorological history of the sampled water body was the main driver of phytoplankton dynamics. This study demonstrates the capacity of longitudinal river surveys with the BIOFISH or similar systems for water quality assessment, the identification of pollution sources and their utilization for online in situ monitoring of rivers.
Intercomparison of cosmic-ray neutron sensors and water balance monitoring in an urban environment
(2018)
Sensor-to-sensor variability is a source of error common to all geoscientific instruments that needs to be assessed before comparative and applied research can be performed with multiple sensors. Consistency among sensor systems is especially critical when subtle features of the surrounding terrain are to be identified. Cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) are a recent technology used to monitor hectometre-scale environmental water storages, for which a rigorous comparison study of numerous co-located sensors has not yet been performed. In this work, nine stationary CRNS probes of type "CRS1000" were installed in relative proximity on a grass patch surrounded by trees, buildings, and sealed areas. While the dynamics of the neutron count rates were found to be similar, offsets of a few percent from the absolute average neutron count rates were found. Technical adjustments of the individual detection parameters brought all instruments into good agreement. Furthermore, we found a critical integration time of 6 h above which all sensors showed consistent dynamics in the data and their RMSE fell below 1% of gravimetric water content. The residual differences between the nine signals indicated local effects of the complex urban terrain on the scale of several metres. Mobile CRNS measurements and spatial simulations with the URANOS neutron transport code in the surrounding area (25 ha) have revealed substantial sub-footprint heterogeneity to which CRNS detectors are sensitive despite their large averaging volume. The sealed and constantly dry structures in the footprint furthermore damped the dynamics of the CRNS-derived soil moisture. We developed strategies to correct for the sealed-area effect based on theoretical insights about the spatial sensitivity of the sensor. This procedure not only led to reliable soil moisture estimation during dry-out periods, it further revealed a strong signal of intercepted water that emerged over the sealed surfaces during rain events. The presented arrangement offered a unique opportunity to demonstrate the CRNS performance in complex terrain, and the results indicated great potential for further applications in urban climate research.
The Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) was established to investigate the regional impact of climate and land use change. TERENO-NE focuses on the Northeast German lowlands, for which a high vulnerability has been determined due to increasing temperatures and decreasing amounts of precipitation projected for the coming decades. To facilitate in-depth evaluations of the effects of climate and land use changes and to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the region, six sites were chosen for comprehensive monitoring. In addition, at selected sites, geoarchives were used to substantially extend the instrumental records back in time. It is this combination of diverse disciplines working across different time scales that makes the observatory TERENO-NE a unique observation platform. We provide information about the general characteristics of the observatory and its six monitoring sites and present examples of interdisciplinary research activities at some of these sites. We also illustrate how monitoring improves process understanding, how remote sensing techniques are fine-tuned by the most comprehensive ground-truthing site DEMMIN, how soil erosion dynamics have evolved, how greenhouse gas monitoring of rewetted peatlands can reveal unexpected mechanisms, and how proxy data provides a long-term perspective of current ongoing changes.
A comprehensive description of electromagnetic processes related to equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs) is essential for understanding their evolution and day-to-day variability. Recently, field-aligned currents (FACs) flowing at both western and eastern edges of EPDs were observed to be interhemispheric rather than anti-parallel about the dip equator, as suggested by previous theoretical studies. In this paper, we investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the FACs orientation using simultaneous measurements of electron density and magnetic field gathered by ESA’s Swarm constellation mission. By using empirical models, we assess the role of the Pedersen conductance in the preference of the FACs to close either in the northern or southern magnetic hemisphere. Here we show that the closure of the FACs agrees with an electrostatic regime determined by a hemispherical asymmetry of the Pedersen conductance. That is, the EPD-related FACs close at lower altitudes in the hemisphere with the highest conductivity. The evidence of this conclusion stands on the general agreement between the longitudinal and seasonal variability of both the conductivity and the FACs orientation.
Ice-rich permafrost has been subject to abrupt thaw and thermokarst formation in the past and is vulnerable to current global warming. The ice-rich permafrost domain includes Yedoma sediments that have never thawed since deposition during the late Pleistocene and Alas sediments that were formed by previous thermokarst processes during the Lateglacial and Holocene warming. Permafrost thaw unlocks organic carbon (OC) and minerals from these deposits and exposes OC to mineralization. A portion of the OC can be associated with iron (Fe), a redox-sensitive element acting as a trap for OC. Post-depositional thaw processes may have induced changes in redox conditions in these deposits and thereby affected Fe distribution and interactions between OC and Fe, with knock-on effects on the role that Fe plays in mediating present day OC mineralization. To test this hypothesis, we measured Fe concentrations and proportion of Fe oxides and Fe complexed with OC in unthawed Yedoma and previously thawed Alas deposits. Total Fe concentrations were determined on 1,292 sediment samples from the Yedoma domain using portable X-ray fluorescence; these concentrations were corrected for trueness using a calibration based on a subset of 144 samples measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry after alkaline fusion (R (2) = 0.95). The total Fe concentration is stable with depth in Yedoma deposits, but we observe a depletion or accumulation of total Fe in Alas deposits, which experienced previous thaw and/or flooding events. Selective Fe extractions targeting reactive forms of Fe on unthawed and previously thawed deposits highlight that about 25% of the total Fe is present as reactive species, either as crystalline or amorphous oxides, or complexed with OC, with no significant difference in proportions of reactive Fe between Yedoma and Alas deposits. These results suggest that redox driven processes during past thermokarst formation impact the present-day distribution of total Fe, and thereby the total amount of reactive Fe in Alas versus Yedoma deposits. This study highlights that ongoing thermokarst lake formation and drainage dynamics in the Arctic influences reactive Fe distribution and thereby interactions between Fe and OC, OC mineralization rates, and greenhouse gas emissions.