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Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an ‘uncertainty-aware’ framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
Der vorliegende Abschlussbericht umfasst die Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Evaluation der Werkstatt „Schule leiten“. Bei dieser Werkstatt handelt es sich um ein 18-monatiges Fortbildungsangebot für Schulleitungen, das durch die Deutsche Schulakademie konzipiert und in Kooperation mit dem saarländischen Kultusministerium für Bildung und Kultur sowie dem saarländischen Landesinstitut für Pädagogik und Medien durchgeführt wurde. Im Zeitraum 2016–2020 absolvierten jeweils zwei Personen des Schulleitungsteams allgemeinbildender Schulen erstmalig in insgesamt drei Durchgängen verschiedene Angebote der Werkstatt. Weiterhin erhielten die Teilnehmenden die Aufgaben, im Zuge ihres Fortbildungsbesuches ein individuelles Schulentwicklungsprojekt zu planen, zu entwickeln und unter Anleitung der Werkstatt in der Schule zu implementieren. Zur Überprüfung der wahrgenommenen Qualität sowie der Wirksamkeit des Fortbildungsangebotes wurde die Universität Potsdam, Arbeitsbereich Prof. Dr. Dirk Richter, beauftragt. Der vorliegende Bericht präsentiert die Evaluationsergebnisse der Durchgänge 2 und 3.
Im Zentrum der Evaluation stehen die folgenden Forschungsfragen: (1) Wie beurteilen die Teilnehmenden die Qualität der Werkstatt „Schule leiten“? (2) Inwiefern hat die Werkstatt „Schule leiten“ dazu beigetragen, die Leitungskompetenzen (u.a. Einstellungen und Führungshandeln) der Teilnehmenden zu stärken? sowie (3) Wie haben sich schulische Strukturen und Prozesse zur Förderung von Schulentwicklung in den teilnehmenden Schulen durch die Werkstatt „Schule leiten“ verändert? Zur Beantwortung der Fragestellungen wurden eine Reihe schriftlicher Befragungen mit den teilnehmenden Schulleitungen sowie den Lehrkräften der teilnehmenden Schulen durchgeführt. Diese Befragungen erfolgten sowohl begleitend zum Fortbildungsprogramm (nach Absolvieren der einzelnen Angebote) sowie in einem Prä-Post-Follow-Up-Design. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen einer qualitativen Begleitstudie verschiedene Personen (Schulleitung, Mitglieder des Schulleitungsteams, Lehrkräfte) von insgesamt fünf Schulen über drei Zeitpunkte dazu befragt, wie die Planung, Entwicklung und Implementation der Schulentwicklungsprojekte erfolgten.
Die Befunde der Evaluation deuten insgesamt darauf hin, dass die Qualität der Werkstatt „Schule leiten“ als Gesamtprogramm sowie die einzelnen Angebote der Werkstatt sehr positiv bewertet werden. Dabei nehmen die Teilnehmenden von Durchgang 2 die Werkstatt in einer Reihe von Merkmalen positiver wahr als die Teilnehmenden von Durchgang 3. Weiterhin deuten die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass sich bestimmte Facetten des Führungshandelns der Teilnehmenden im zeitlichen Verlauf positiv verändert haben. Hierfür existieren Hinweise sowohl aus Perspektive der Teilnehmenden selbst als auch aus Perspektive der Lehrkräfte ihrer Schulen. Motivationale Merkmale der Teilnehmenden sowie Aspekte des Führungshandelns, die sich auf Tätigkeiten zur Unterstützung der innerschulischen Kooperation beziehen, bleiben aus Perspektive der Teilnehmenden hingegen weitestgehend konstant. Hinsichtlich der Veränderungen schulischer Strukturen zur Schulentwicklung deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine positive Entwicklung der wahrgenommenen Offenheit gegenüber Kooperation im Kollegium aus Perspektive der Lehrkräfte hin. Die Befunde der qualitativen Begleitstudie liefern weitere Informationen über die wahrgenommene Qualität der Werkstatt sowie über Veränderungen aufseiten der Teilnehmenden und der schulischen Strukturen.
We study the diffusive motion of a particle in a subharmonic potential of the form U(x) = |x|( c ) (0 < c < 2) driven by long-range correlated, stationary fractional Gaussian noise xi ( alpha )(t) with 0 < alpha <= 2. In the absence of the potential the particle exhibits free fractional Brownian motion with anomalous diffusion exponent alpha. While for an harmonic external potential the dynamics converges to a Gaussian stationary state, from extensive numerical analysis we here demonstrate that stationary states for shallower than harmonic potentials exist only as long as the relation c > 2(1 - 1/alpha) holds. We analyse the motion in terms of the mean squared displacement and (when it exists) the stationary probability density function. Moreover we discuss analogies of non-stationarity of Levy flights in shallow external potentials.
Classroom noise impairs students' cognition and learning. At a first glance, it seems useful to prevent the negative effects of noise on academic learning by wearing noise-cancelling (NC) headphones during class. The literature and guidelines emphasize the academic benefits of wearing NC headphones (decreased auditory distraction, increased concentration, learning improvement, and decreased distress). These benefits are particularly expected for students with special needs. None of the recommendations to wear NC headphones during class refer to any empirical studies, indicating a potential research gap and lack of evidence. Therefore, the question arises: Is there any empirical evidence supporting academic benefits of wearing NC headphones during class for typically developing students or students with special needs? A total of 13 empirical studies (quantitative and qualitative) were identified through a systematic scoping review of the existing literature. A wide range of outcomes (cognition, learning, academic performance, behaviour, and emotions) were reported related to the use of NC headphones. Most of the studies refer to specific groups of students with special needs (learning disabilities, autism, ADHD, etc.). In view of the limited number of studies, small sample sizes, and lack of replication studies, all studies give the impression of being pilot studies on the academic benefits of wearing NC headphones. The practice of wearing NC headphones during class is an understudied topic. The current body of evidence does not meet the standards for evidence-based practices in both general and special education. Implications for educational practice and future research are discussed.
This study examines the access to healthcare for children and adolescents with three common chronic diseases (type-1 diabetes (T1D), obesity, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)) within the 4th (Delta), 5th (Omicron), and beginning of the 6th (Omicron) wave (June 2021 until July 2022) of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany in a cross-sectional study using three national patient registries. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire was given to parents of pediatric patients (<21 years) during the routine check-ups. The questionnaire contains self-constructed items assessing the frequency of healthcare appointments and cancellations, remote healthcare, and satisfaction with healthcare. In total, 905 parents participated in the T1D-sample, 175 in the obesity-sample, and 786 in the JIA-sample. In general, satisfaction with healthcare (scale: 0–10; 10 reflecting the highest satisfaction) was quite high (median values: T1D 10, JIA 10, obesity 8.5). The proportion of children and adolescents with canceled appointments was relatively small (T1D 14.1%, JIA 11.1%, obesity 20%), with a median of 1 missed appointment, respectively. Only a few parents (T1D 8.6%; obesity 13.1%; JIA 5%) reported obstacles regarding health services during the pandemic. To conclude, it seems that access to healthcare was largely preserved for children and adolescents with chronic health conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.
Digital terrain models (DTMs) are a fundamental source of information in Earth sciences. DTM-based studies, however, can contain remarkable biases if limitations and inaccuracies in these models are disregarded. In this work, four freely available datasets, including Shuttle Radar Topography Mission C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SRTM C-SAR V3 DEM), Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Map (ASTER GDEM V2), and two nationwide airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived DTMs (at 5-m and 1-m spatial resolution, respectively) were analysed in three geomorphologically contrasting, small (3–5 km2) catchments located in Mediterranean landscapes under intensive human influence (Mallorca Island, Spain). Vertical accuracy as well as the influence of each dataset’s characteristics on hydrological and geomorphological modelling applicability were assessed by using ground-truth data, classic geometric and morphometric parameters, and a recently proposed index of sediment connectivity. Overall vertical accuracy—expressed as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and normalised median deviation (NMAD)—revealed the highest accuracy for the 1-m (RMSE = 1.55 m; NMAD = 0.44 m) and 5-m LiDAR DTMs (RMSE = 1.73 m; NMAD = 0.84 m). Vertical accuracy of the SRTM data was lower (RMSE = 6.98 m; NMAD = 5.27 m), but considerably higher than for the ASTER data (RMSE = 16.10 m; NMAD = 11.23 m). All datasets were affected by systematic distortions. Propagation of these errors and coarse horizontal resolution caused negative impacts on flow routing, stream network, and catchment delineation, and to a lower extent, on the distribution of slope values. These limitations should be carefully considered when applying DTMs for catchment hydrogeomorphological modelling.
Macrophages have important protective functions during infection with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1). However, molecular mechanisms that restrict viral propagation and protect from severe disease are unclear. Here we show that macrophages take up HSV-1 via endocytosis and transport the virions into multivesicular bodies (MVBs). In MVBs, acid ceramidase (aCDase) converts ceramide into sphingosine and increases the formation of sphingosine-rich intraluminal vesicles (ILVs). Once HSV-1 particles reach MVBs, sphingosine-rich ILVs bind to HSV-1 particles, which restricts fusion with the limiting endosomal membrane and prevents cellular infection. Lack of aCDase in macrophage cultures or in Asah1(-/-) mice results in replication of HSV-1 and Asah1(-/-) mice die soon after systemic or intravaginal inoculation. The treatment of macrophages with sphingosine enhancing compounds blocks HSV-1 propagation, suggesting a therapeutic potential of this pathway. In conclusion, aCDase loads ILVs with sphingosine, which prevents HSV-1 capsids from penetrating into the cytosol.
Farber disease is a rare lysosomal storage disorder resulting from acid ceramidase deficiency and subsequent ceramide accumulation. No treatments for Farber disease are clinically available, and affected patients have a severely shortened lifespan. We have recently reported a novel acid ceramidase deficiency model that mirrors the human disease closely. Acid sphingomyelinase is the enzyme that generates ceramide upstream of acid ceramidase in the lysosomes. Using our acid ceramidase deficiency model, we tested if acid sphingomyelinase could be a potential novel therapeutic target for the treatment of Farber disease. A number of functional acid sphingomyelinase inhibitors are clinically available and have been used for decades to treat major depression. Using these as a therapeutic for Farber disease, thus, has the potential to improve central nervous symptoms of the disease as well, something all other treatment options for Farber disease can’t achieve so far. As a proof-of-concept study, we first cross-bred acid ceramidase deficient mice with acid sphingomyelinase deficient mice in order to prevent ceramide accumulation. Double-deficient mice had reduced ceramide accumulation, fewer disease manifestations, and prolonged survival. We next targeted acid sphingomyelinase pharmacologically, to test if these findings would translate to a setting with clinical applicability. Surprisingly, the treatment of acid ceramidase deficient mice with the acid sphingomyelinase inhibitor amitriptyline was toxic to acid ceramidase deficient mice and killed them within a few days of treatment. In conclusion, our study provides the first proof-of-concept that acid sphingomyelinase could be a potential new therapeutic target for Farber disease to reduce disease manifestations and prolong survival. However, we also identified previously unknown toxicity of the functional acid sphingomyelinase inhibitor amitriptyline in the context of Farber disease, strongly cautioning against the use of this substance class for Farber disease patients.
This paper investigates the predictions of the Derivational Complexity Hypothesis by studying the acquisition of wh-questions in 4- and 5-year-old Akan-speaking children in an experimental approach using an elicited production and an elicited imitation task. Akan has two types of wh-question structures (wh-in-situ and wh-ex-situ questions), which allows an investigation of children’s acquisition of these two question structures and their preferences for one or the other. Our results show that adults prefer to use wh-ex-situ questions over wh-in-situ questions. The results from the children show that both age groups have the two question structures in their linguistic repertoire. However, they differ in their preferences in usage in the elicited production task: while the 5-year-olds preferred the wh-in-situ structure over the wh-ex-situ structure, the 4-year-olds showed a selective preference for the wh-in-situ structure in who-questions. These findings suggest a developmental change in wh-question preferences in Akan-learning children between 4 and 5 years of age with a so far unobserved u-shaped developmental pattern. In the elicited imitation task, all groups showed a strong tendency to maintain the structure of in-situ and ex-situ questions in repeating grammatical questions. When repairing ungrammatical ex-situ questions, structural changes to grammatical in-situ questions were hardly observed but the insertion of missing morphemes while keeping the ex-situ structure. Together, our findings provide only partial support for the Derivational Complexity Hypothesis.
Active use of social networking sites (SNSs) has long been assumed to benefit users' well-being. However, this established hypothesis is increasingly being challenged, with scholars criticizing its lack of empirical support and the imprecise conceptualization of active use. Nevertheless, with considerable heterogeneity among existing studies on the hypothesis and causal evidence still limited, a final verdict on its robustness is still pending. To contribute to this ongoing debate, we conducted a week-long randomized control trial with N = 381 adult Instagram users recruited via Prolific. Specifically, we tested how active SNS use, operationalized as picture postings on Instagram, affects different dimensions of well-being. The results depicted a positive effect on users' positive affect but null findings for other well-being outcomes. The findings broadly align with the recent criticism against the active use hypothesis and support the call for a more nuanced view on the impact of SNSs. <br /> Lay Summary Active use of social networking sites (SNSs) has long been assumed to benefit users' well-being. However, this established assumption is increasingly being challenged, with scholars criticizing its lack of empirical support and the imprecise conceptualization of active use. Nevertheless, with great diversity among conducted studies on the hypothesis and a lack of causal evidence, a final verdict on its viability is still pending. To contribute to this ongoing debate, we conducted a week-long experimental investigation with 381 adult Instagram users. Specifically, we tested how posting pictures on Instagram affects different aspects of well-being. The results of this study depicted a positive effect of posting Instagram pictures on users' experienced positive emotions but no effects on other aspects of well-being. The findings broadly align with the recent criticism against the active use hypothesis and support the call for a more nuanced view on the impact of SNSs on users.
Background
Earlier studies have shown that balance training (BT) has the potential to induce performance enhancements in selected components of physical fitness (i.e., balance, muscle strength, power, speed). While there is ample evidence on the long-term effects of BT on components of physical fitness in youth, less is known on the short-term or acute effects of single BT sessions on selected measures of physical fitness.
Objective
To examine the acute effects of different balance exercise types on balance, change-of-direction (CoD) speed, and jump performance in youth female volleyball players.
Methods
Eleven female players aged 14 years participated in this study. Three types of balance exercises (i.e., anterior, posterolateral, rotational type) were conducted in randomized order. For each exercise, 3 sets including 5 repetitions were performed. Before and after the performance of the balance exercises, participants were tested for their static balance (center of pressure surface area [CoP SA] and velocity [CoP V]) on foam and firm surfaces, CoD speed (T-Half test), and vertical jump height (countermovement jump [CMJ] height). A 3 (condition: anterior, mediolateral, rotational balance exercise type) × 2 (time: pre, post) analysis of variance was computed with repeated measures on time.
Results
Findings showed no significant condition × time interactions for all outcome measures (p > 0.05). However, there were small main effects of time for CoP SA on firm and foam surfaces (both d = 0.38; all p < 0.05) with no effect for CoP V on both surface conditions (p > 0.05). For CoD speed, findings showed a large main effect of time (d = 0.91; p < 0.001). However, for CMJ height, no main effect of time was observed (p > 0.05).
Conclusions
Overall, our results indicated small-to-large changes in balance and CoD speed performances but not in CMJ height in youth female volleyball players, regardless of the balance exercise type. Accordingly, it is recommended to regularly integrate balance exercises before the performance of sport-specific training to optimize performance development in youth female volleyball players.
Background: High-intensity muscle actions have the potential to temporarily improve the performance which has been denoted as postactivation performance enhancement.
Objectives: This study determined the acute effects of different stretch-shortening (fast vs. low) and strength (dynamic vs. isometric) exercises executed during one training session on subsequent balance performance in youth weightlifters.
Materials and Methods: Sixteen male and female young weightlifters, aged 11.3±0.6years, performed four strength exercise conditions in randomized order, including dynamic strength (DYN; 3 sets of 3 repetitions of 10 RM) and isometric strength exercises (ISOM; 3 sets of maintaining 3s of 10 RM of back-squat), as well as fast (FSSC; 3 sets of 3 repetitions of 20-cm drop-jumps) and slow (SSSC; 3 sets of 3 hurdle jumps over a 20-cm obstacle) stretch-shortening cycle protocols. Balance performance was tested before and after each of the four exercise conditions in bipedal stance on an unstable surface (i.e., BOSU ball with flat side facing up) using two dependent variables, i.e., center of pressure surface area (CoP SA) and velocity (CoP V).
Results: There was a significant effect of time on CoP SA and CoP V [F(1,60)=54.37, d=1.88, p<0.0001; F(1,60)=9.07, d=0.77, p=0.003]. In addition, a statistically significant effect of condition on CoP SA and CoP V [F(3,60)=11.81, d=1.53, p<0.0001; F(3,60)=7.36, d=1.21, p=0.0003] was observed. Statistically significant condition-by-time interactions were found for the balance parameters CoP SA (p<0.003, d=0.54) and CoP V (p<0.002, d=0.70). Specific to contrast analysis, all specified hypotheses were tested and demonstrated that FSSC yielded significantly greater improvements than all other conditions in CoP SA and CoP V [p<0.0001 (d=1.55); p=0.0004 (d=1.19), respectively]. In addition, FSSC yielded significantly greater improvements compared with the two conditions for both balance parameters [p<0.0001 (d=2.03); p<0.0001 (d=1.45)].
Conclusion: Fast stretch-shortening cycle exercises appear to be more effective to improve short-term balance performance in young weightlifters. Due to the importance of balance for overall competitive achievement in weightlifting, it is recommended that young weightlifters implement dynamic plyometric exercises in the fast stretch-shortening cycle during the warm-up to improve their balance performance.
Earth’s surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort. More than half of the United States needs to at least double their protection within the next two decades. Thus, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.
Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
Adaptation to flood risk
(2017)
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Adaption von Lernwegen in adaptierten Lehrmaterialien für Studierende mit Berufsausbildungsabschluss
(2023)
Obwohl immer mehr Menschen nicht direkt ein Studium aufnehmen, sondern zuvor eine berufliche Ausbildung absolvieren, werden die in der Ausbildung erworbenen Kompetenzen von den Hochschulen inhaltlich und didaktisch meist ignoriert. Ein Ansatz, diese Kompetenzen zu würdigen, ist die formale Anrechnung von mitgebrachten Kompetenzen als (für den Studienabschluss erforderliche) Leistungspunkte. Eine andere Variante ist der Einsatz von speziell für die Zielgruppe der Studierenden mit Vorkenntnissen adaptiertem Lehr-Lernmaterial. Um darüber hinaus individuelle Unterschiede zu berücksichtigen, erlaubt eine weitere Adaption individueller Lernpfade den Lernenden, genau die jeweils fehlenden Kompetenzen zu erwerben. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir die exemplarische Entwicklung derartigen Materials anhand des Kurses „Datenbanken“ für die Zielgruppe der Studierenden mit einer abgeschlossenen Ausbildung zum Fachinformatiker bzw. zur Fachinformatikerin vor.