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Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.
Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
(2022)
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted.
We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall.
We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up.
We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
We present the discovery of a new double-detonation progenitor system consisting of a hot subdwarf B (sdB) binary with a white dwarf companion with a P (orb) = 76.34179(2) minutes orbital period. Spectroscopic observations are consistent with an sdB star during helium core burning residing on the extreme horizontal branch. Chimera light curves are dominated by ellipsoidal deformation of the sdB star and a weak eclipse of the companion white dwarf. Combining spectroscopic and light curve fits, we find a low-mass sdB star, M (sdB) = 0.383 +/- 0.028 M (circle dot) with a massive white dwarf companion, M (WD) = 0.725 +/- 0.026 M (circle dot). From the eclipses we find a blackbody temperature for the white dwarf of 26,800 K resulting in a cooling age of approximate to 25 Myr whereas our MESA model predicts an sdB age of approximate to 170 Myr. We conclude that the sdB formed first through stable mass transfer followed by a common envelope which led to the formation of the white dwarf companion approximate to 25 Myr ago. Using the MESA stellar evolutionary code we find that the sdB star will start mass transfer in approximate to 6 Myr and in approximate to 60 Myr the white dwarf will reach a total mass of 0.92 M (circle dot) with a thick helium layer of 0.17 M (circle dot). This will lead to a detonation that will likely destroy the white dwarf in a peculiar thermonuclear supernova. PTF1 J2238+7430 is only the second confirmed candidate for a double-detonation thermonuclear supernova. Using both systems we estimate that at least approximate to 1% of white dwarf thermonuclear supernovae originate from sdB+WD binaries with thick helium layers, consistent with the small number of observed peculiar thermonuclear explosions.
The study addresses the question, if observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter are driven by Arctic Sea ice decline alone or if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. We compare atmosphere-only model experiments with ECHAM6 to ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. The model sensitivity experiment is implemented as a set of four combinations of sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary conditions. Atmospheric circulation regimes are determined and evaluated in terms of their cyclone and blocking characteristics and changes in frequency during winter. As a prerequisite, ECHAM6 reproduces general features of circulation regimes very well. Tropospheric changes induced by the change of boundary conditions are revealed and further impacts on the large-scale circulation up into the stratosphere are investigated. In early winter, the observed increase of atmospheric blocking in the region between Scandinavia and the Urals are primarily related to the changes in sea surface temperatures. During late winter, we f nd a weakened polar stratospheric vortex in the reanalysis that further impacts the troposphere. In the model sensitivity study a climatologically weakened polar vortex occurs only if sea ice is reduced and sea surface temperatures are increased together. This response is delayed compared to the reanalysis. The tropospheric response during late winter is inconclusive in the model, which is potentially related to the weak and delayed response in the stratosphere. The model experiments do not reproduce the connection between early and late winter as interpreted from the reanalysis. Potentially explaining this mismatch, we identify a discrepancy of ECHAM6 to reproduce the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex through blocking induced upward propagation of planetary waves.
Simulating the space weather in the AU Mic system: stellar winds and extreme coronal mass ejections
(2022)
Two close-in planets have been recently found around the M-dwarf flare star AU Microscopii (AU Mic). These Neptune-sized planets (AU Mic b and c) seem to be located very close to the so-called "evaporation valley" in the exoplanet population, making this system an important target for studying atmospheric loss on exoplanets. This process, while mainly driven by high-energy stellar radiation, will be strongly mediated by the space environment surrounding the planets. Here we present an investigation of this last area, performing 3D numerical modeling of the quiescent stellar wind from AU Mic, as well as time-dependent simulations describing the evolution of a highly energetic coronal mass ejection (CME) event in this system. Observational constraints on the stellar magnetic field and properties of the eruption are incorporated in our models. We carry out qualitative and quantitative characterizations of the stellar wind, the emerging CMEs, as well as the expected steady and transient conditions along the orbit of both exoplanets. Our results predict extreme space weather for AU Mic and its planets. This includes sub-Alfvenic regions for the large majority of the exoplanet orbits, very high dynamic and magnetic pressure values in quiescence (varying within 10(2)-10(5) times the dynamic pressure experienced by Earth), and an even harsher environment during the passage of any escaping CME associated with the frequent flaring observed in AU Mic. These space weather conditions alone pose an immense challenge for the survival of exoplanetary atmospheres (if any) in this system.
When two initially thermal many-body systems start to interact strongly, their transient states quickly become non-Gibbsian, even if the systems eventually equilibrate. To see beyond this apparent lack of structure during the transient regime, we use a refined notion of thermality, which we call g-local. A system is g-locally thermal if the states of all its small subsystems are marginals of global thermal states. We numerically demonstrate for two harmonic lattices that whenever the total system equilibrates in the long run, each lattice remains g-locally thermal at all times, including the transient regime. This is true even when the lattices have long-range interactions within them. In all cases, we find that the equilibrium is described by the generalized Gibbs ensemble, with three-dimensional lattices requiring special treatment due to their extended set of conserved charges. We compare our findings with the well-known two-temperature model. While its standard form is not valid beyond weak coupling, we show that at strong coupling it can be partially salvaged by adopting the concept of a g-local temperature.
This review discusses picosecond ultrasonics experiments using ultrashort hard x-ray probe pulses to extract the transient strain response of laser-excited nanoscopic structures from Bragg-peak shifts. This method provides direct, layer-specific, and quantitative information on the picosecond strain response for structures down to few-nm thickness. We model the transient strain using the elastic wave equation and express the driving stress using Gruneisen parameters stating that the laser-induced stress is proportional to energy density changes in the microscopic subsystems of the solid, i.e., electrons, phonons and spins. The laser-driven strain response can thus serve as an ultrafast proxy for local energy-density and temperature changes, but we emphasize the importance of the nanoscale morphology for an accurate interpretation due to the Poisson effect. The presented experimental use cases encompass ultrathin and opaque metal-heterostructures, continuous and granular nanolayers as well as negative thermal expansion materials, that each pose a challenge to established all-optical techniques.
The unmixed debris of Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus in the form of a pair of halo stellar overdensities
(2022)
In the first billion years after its formation, the galaxy underwent several mergers with dwarf satellites of various masses. The debris of Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE), the galaxy responsible for the last significant merger of the Milky Way, dominates the inner halo and has been suggested to be the progenitor of both the Hercules-Aquila Cloud (HAC) and Virgo Overdensity (VOD). We combine SEGUE, APOGEE, Gaia, and StarHorse distances to characterize the chemodynamical properties and verify the link between HAC, VOD, and GSE. We find that the orbital eccentricity distributions of the stellar overdensities and GSE are comparable. We also find that they have similar, strongly peaked, metallicity distribution functions, reinforcing the hypothesis of common origin. Furthermore, we show that HAC and VOD are indistinguishable from the prototypical GSE population within all chemical-abundance spaces analyzed. All these evidences combined provide a clear demonstration that the GSE merger is the main progenitor of the stellar populations found within these halo overdensities.
Understanding the origin of inefficient photocurrent generation in organic solar cells with low energy offset remains key to realizing high-performance donor-acceptor systems. Here, we probe the origin of field-dependent free-charge generation and photoluminescence in wnon-fullereneacceptor (NFA)-based organic solar cells using the polymer PM6 and the NFA Y5-a non-halogenated sibling to Y6, with a smaller energetic offset to PM6. By performing time-delayed collection field (TDCF) measurements on a variety of samples with different electron transport layers and active layer thickness, we show that the fill factor and photocurrent are limited by field-dependent free charge generation in the bulk of the blend. We also introduce a new method of TDCF called m-TDCF to prove the absence of artifacts from non-geminate recombination of photogenerated and dark charge carriers near the electrodes. We then correlate free charge generation with steady-state photoluminescence intensity and find perfect anticorrelation between these two properties. Through this, we conclude that photocurrent generation in this low-offset system is entirely controlled by the field-dependent dissociation of local excitons into charge-transfer states. (c) 2023 Author(s).
Following excited-state chemical shifts in molecular ultrafast x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy
(2022)
Imaging the charge flow in photoexcited molecules would provide key information on photophysical and photochemical processes. Here the authors demonstrate tracking in real time after photoexcitation the change in charge density at a specific site of 2-thiouracil using time-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The conversion of photon energy into other energetic forms in molecules is accompanied by charge moving on ultrafast timescales. We directly observe the charge motion at a specific site in an electronically excited molecule using time-resolved x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (TR-XPS). We extend the concept of static chemical shift from conventional XPS by the excited-state chemical shift (ESCS), which is connected to the charge in the framework of a potential model. This allows us to invert TR-XPS spectra to the dynamic charge at a specific atom. We demonstrate the power of TR-XPS by using sulphur 2p-core-electron-emission probing to study the UV-excited dynamics of 2-thiouracil. The method allows us to discover that a major part of the population relaxes to the molecular ground state within 220-250 fs. In addition, a 250-fs oscillation, visible in the kinetic energy of the TR-XPS, reveals a coherent exchange of population among electronic states.