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After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.
Introduction:
Decision making results not only from logical analyses, but seems to be further guided by the ability to perceive somatic information (interoceptive accuracy). Relations between interoceptive accuracy and decision making have been exclusively studied in adults and with regard to complex, uncertain situations (as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT).
Methods:
In the present study, 1454 children (6-11 years) were examined at two time points (approximately 1 year apart) using an IGT as well as a delay-of-gratification task for sweets-items and toy-items. Interoceptive accuracy was measured using a child-adapted version of the Heartbeat Perception Task.
Results:
The present results revealed that children with higher, as compared to lower, interoceptive accuracy showed more advantageous choices in the IGT and delayed more sweets-items, but not toy-items, in a delay-of-gratification task at time point 2 but not at time point 1. However, no longitudinal relation between interoceptive accuracy and decision making 1 year later could be shown.
Discussion:
Results indicate that interoceptive accuracy relates to decision-making abilities in situations of varying complexity already in middle childhood, and that this link might consolidate across the examined 1-year period. Furthermore, the association of interoceptive accuracy and the delay of sweets-items might have implications for the regulation of body weight at a later age.
Reference values and validation of the 1-minute sit-to-stand test in healthy 5-16-year-old youth
(2021)
Objectives:
It is essential to have simple, reliable and valid tests to measure children's functional capacity in schools or medical practice. The 1-minute sit-to-stand (STS) test is a quick fitness test requiring little equipment or space that is increasingly used in both healthy populations and those with chronic disease. We aimed to provide age-specific and sex-specific reference values of STS test in healthy children and adolescents and to evaluate its short-term reliability and construct validity.
Design setting and participants:
Cross-sectional convenience sample from six public schools and one science fair in central Europe. Overall, 587 healthy participants aged 5-16 years were recruited and divided into age groups of 3 years each.
Outcomes:
1-minute STS. To evaluate short-term reliability, some children performed the STS test twice. To evaluate construct validity, some children also performed a standing long jump (SLJ) and a maximal incremental exercise test.
Results:
Data from 547 youth aged 5-16 years were finally included in the analyses. The median number of repetitions in 1 min in males (females) ranged from 55 [95% CI: 38 to 72] (53 [95% CI: 35 to 76]) in 14-16-year olds to 59 [95% CI: 41 to 77] (60 [95% CI: 38 to 77]) in 8-10-year olds. Children who repeated STS showed a learning effect of on average 4.8 repetitions more than the first test (95% limits of agreement: -6.7 to 16.4). Moderate correlations were observed between the STS and the SLJ (r=0.48) tests and the maximal exercise test (r=0.43).
Conclusions:
The reported STS reference values can be used to interpret STS test performance in children and adolescents. The STS appears to have good test- retest reliability, but a learning effect of about 10%. The association of STS with other measures of physical fitness should be further explored in a larger study and technical standards for its conduct are needed.
The current paradigm of cosmic-ray (CR) origin states that the greater part of galactic CRs is produced by supernova remnants. The interaction of supernova ejecta with the interstellar medium after a supernova's explosions results in shocks responsible for CR acceleration via diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). We use particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations and a combined PIC-magnetohydrodynamic (PIC-MHD) technique to investigate whether DSA can occur in oblique high Mach number shocks. Using the PIC method, we follow the formation of the shock and determine the fraction of the particles that gets involved in DSA. With this result, we use PIC-MHD simulations to model the large-scale structure of the plasma and the magnetic field surrounding the shock and find out whether or not the reflected particles can generate upstream turbulence and trigger DSA. We find that the feasibility of this process in oblique shocks depends strongly on the Alfvenic Mach number, and the DSA process is more likely to be triggered at high Mach number shocks.
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.
Climate Benefits of Cleaner Energy Transitions in East and South Asia Through Black Carbon Reduction
(2022)
The state of air pollution has historically been tightly linked to how we produce and use energy. Air pollutant emissions over Asia are now changing rapidly due to cleaner energy transitions; however, magnitudes of benefits for climate and air quality remain poorly quantified. The associated risks involve adverse health impacts, reduced agricultural yields, reduced freshwater availability, contributions to climate change, and economic costs. We focus particularly on climate benefits of energy transitions by making first-time use of two decades of high quality observations of atmospheric loading of light-absorbing black carbon (BC) over Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia) and relating these observations to changing energy, emissions, and economic trends in India and China. Our analysis reveals that absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) due to BC has decreased substantially, by 40% over Kanpur and 60% over Beijing between 2001 and 2017, and thus became decoupled from regional economic growth. Furthermore, the resultant decrease in BC emissions and BC AAOD over Asia is regionally coherent and occurs primarily due to transitions into cleaner energies (both renewables and fossil fuels) and not due to the decrease in primary energy supply or decrease in use of fossil use and biofuels and waste. Model simulations show that BC aerosols alone contribute about half of the surface temperature change (warming) of the total forcing due to greenhouse gases, natural and internal variability, and aerosols, thus clearly revealing the climate benefits due to a reduction in BC emissions, which would significantly reduce global warming. However, this modeling study excludes responses from natural variability, circulation, and sea ice responses, which cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may mask signals from BC aerosols. Our findings show additional benefits for climate (beyond benefits of CO2 reduction) and for several other issues of sustainability over South and East Asia, provide motivation for ongoing cleaner energy production, and consumption transitions, especially when they are associated with reduced emissions of air pollutants. Such an analysis connecting the trends in energy transitions and aerosol absorption loading, unavailable so far, is crucial for simulating the aerosol climate impacts over Asia which is quite uncertain.
The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several opportunities to work with event data and even for the most challenging task of comparing event time series with continuous time series. Here, the basic concept is introduced, the challenges are discussed, and the future perspectives are summarized.
A detailed investigation of the energy levels of perylene-3,4,9,10-tetracarboxylic tetraethylester as a representative compound for the whole family of perylene esters was performed. It was revealed via electrochemical measurements that one oxidation and two reductions take place. The bandgaps determined via the electrochemical approach are in good agreement with the optical bandgap obtained from the absorption spectra via a Tauc plot. In addition, absorption spectra in dependence of the electrochemical potential were the basis for extensive quantum-chemical calculations of the neutral, monoanionic, and dianionic molecules. For this purpose, calculations based on density functional theory were compared with post-Hartree-Fock methods and the CAM-B3LYP functional proved to be the most reliable choice for the calculation of absorption spectra. Furthermore, spectral features found experimentally could be reproduced with vibronic calculations and allowed to understand their origins. In particular, the two lowest energy absorption bands of the anion are not caused by absorption of two distinct electronic states, which might have been expected from vertical excitation calculations, but both states exhibit a strong vibronic progression resulting in contributions to both bands.