Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften
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Cities play a vital role in the global climate change mitigation agenda. City population density is one of the key factors that influence urban energy consumption and the subsequent GHG emissions. However, previous research on the relationship between population density and GHG emissions led to contradictory results due to urban/rural definition conundrum and the varying methodologies for estimating GHG emissions. This work addresses these ambiguities by employing the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) and utilizing the gridded CO2 emissions data. Our results, derived from the analysis of all inhabited areas in the US, show a sub-linear relationship between population density and the total emissions (i.e. the sum of on-road and building emissions) on a per capita basis. Accordingly, we find that doubling the population density would entail a reduction in the total CO2 emissions in buildings and on-road sectors typically by at least 42%. Moreover, we find that population density exerts a higher influence on on-road emissions than buildings emissions. From an energy consumption point of view, our results suggest that on-going urban sprawl will lead to an increase in on-road energy consumption in cities and therefore stresses the importance of developing adequate local policy measures to limit urban sprawl. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In order to achieve meaningful climate protection targets at the global scale, each country is called to set national energy policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions. By calculating the monthly heating energy demand of dwellings in the Netherlands, our case study country, we contrast the results with the corresponding aspired national targets. Considering different future population scenarios, renovation measures and temperature variations, we show that a near zero energy demand in 2050 could only be reached with very ambitious renovation measures. While the goal of reducing the energy demand of the building sector by 50% until 2030 compared to 1990 seems feasible for most provinces and months in the minimum scenario, it is impossible in our scenario with more pessimistic yet still realistic assumptions regarding future developments. Compared to the current value, the annual renovation rate per province would need to be at least doubled in order to reach the 2030 target independent of reasonable climatic and population changes in the future. Our findings also underline the importance of policy measures as the annual renovation rate is a key influencing factor regarding the reduction of the heating energy demand in dwellings. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The electricity system is particularly susceptible to climate change due to the close interconnectedness between electricity production, consumption and climate. This study provides a country based relative analysis of 21 European countries' electricity system susceptibility to climate change. Taking into account 14 quantitative influencing factors, the susceptibility of each country is examined both for the current and projected system with the result being a relative ranked index. Luxembourg and Greece are the most susceptible relatively due in part to their inability to meet their own electricity consumption demand with inland production, and the fact that the majority of their production is from more susceptible sources, primarily combustible fuels. Greece experiences relatively warm mean temperatures, which are expected to increase in the future leading to greater summer electricity consumption, increasing susceptibility. Norway was found to be the least susceptible, relatively, due to its consistent production surplus, which is primarily from hydro (a less susceptible source) and a likely decrease of winter electricity consumption as temperatures rise due to climate change. The findings of this study enable countries to identify the main factors that increase their electricity system susceptibility and proceed with adaptation measures that are the most effective in decreasing susceptibility.