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We introduce and study a Lévy walk (LW) model of particle spreading with a finite propagation speed combined with soft resets, stochastically occurring periods in which an harmonic external potential is switched on and forces the particle towards a specific position. Soft resets avoid instantaneous relocation of particles that in certain physical settings may be considered unphysical. Moreover, soft resets do not have a specific resetting point but lead the particle towards a resetting point by a restoring Hookean force. Depending on the exact choice for the LW waiting time density and the probability density of the periods when the harmonic potential is switched on, we demonstrate a rich emerging response behaviour including ballistic motion and superdiffusion. When the confinement periods of the soft-reset events are dominant, we observe a particle localisation with an associated non-equilibrium steady state. In this case the stationary particle probability density function turns out to acquire multimodal states. Our derivations are based on Markov chain ideas and LWs with multiple internal states, an approach that may be useful and flexible for the investigation of other generalised random walks with soft and hard resets. The spreading efficiency of soft-rest LWs is characterised by the first-passage time statistic.
Background:
Children’s spontaneous focusing on numerosity (SFON) is related to numerical skills. This study aimed to examine (1) the developmental trajectory of SFON and (2) the interrelations between SFON and early numerical skills at pre-school as well as their influence on arithmetical skills at school.
Method:
Overall, 1868 German pre-school children were repeatedly assessed until second grade. Nonverbal intelligence, visual attention, visuospatial working memory, SFON and numerical skills were assessed at age five (M = 63 months, Time 1) and age six (M = 72 months, Time 2), and arithmetic was assessed at second grade (M = 95 months, Time 3).
Results:
SFON increased significantly during pre-school. Path analyses revealed interrelations between SFON and several numerical skills, except number knowledge. Magnitude estimation and basic calculation skills (Time 1 and Time 2), and to a small degree number knowledge (Time 2), contributed directly to arithmetic in second grade. The connection between SFON and arithmetic was fully mediated by magnitude estimation and calculation skills at pre-school.
Conclusion:
Our results indicate that SFON first and foremost influences deeper understanding of numerical concepts at pre-school and—in contrast to previous findings –affects only indirectly children’s arithmetical development at school.
Studies have revealed mixed results on how antidepressant drugs affect lipid profiles of patients with major depression disorder (MDD). Even less is known about how patients respond to a switch of antidepressant medication with respect to their metabolic profile. For this, effects of a switch in antidepressants medication on lipid markers were studied in MDD patients. 15 participants (females = 86.67%; males = 13.33%; age: 49.45 ± 7.45 years) with MDD and a prescribed switch in their antidepressant medication were recruited at a psychosomatic rehabilitation clinic. Participants were characterized (with questionnaires and blood samples) at admission to the rehabilitation clinic (baseline, T0) and followed up with a blood sample two weeks (T1) later. HDL, LDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides were determined (T0), and their change analyzed (Wilcoxon test) at follow up (T1). Decrements in HDL (p = 0.041), LDL (p < 0.001), and total cholesterol (p < 0.001) were observed two weeks after a switch in antidepressant medication. Triglycerides showed no difference (p = 0.699). Overall, LDL, HDL, and total cholesterol are affected by a change in antidepressant drugs in patients with MDD. These observations are of clinical relevance for medical practitioners in the planning and management of treatment strategies for MDD patients.
Wheat alpha-amylase/trypsin inhibitors remain a subject of interest considering the latest findings showing their implication in wheat-related non-celiac sensitivity (NCWS). Understanding their functions in such a disorder is still unclear and for further study, the need for pure ATI molecules is one of the limiting problems. In this work, a simplified approach based on the successive fractionation of ATI extracts by reverse phase and ion exchange chromatography was developed. ATIs were first extracted from wheat flour using a combination of Tris buffer and chloroform/methanol methods. The separation of the extracts on a C18 column generated two main fractions of interest F1 and F2. The response surface methodology with the Doehlert design allowed optimizing the operating parameters of the strong anion exchange chromatography. Finally, the seven major wheat ATIs namely P01083, P17314, P16850, P01085, P16851, P16159, and P83207 were recovered with purity levels (according to the targeted LC-MS/MS analysis) of 98.2 ± 0.7; 98.1 ± 0.8; 97.9 ± 0.5; 95.1 ± 0.8; 98.3 ± 0.4; 96.9 ± 0.5, and 96.2 ± 0.4%, respectively. MALDI-TOF-MS analysis revealed single peaks in each of the pure fractions and the mass analysis yielded deviations of 0.4, 1.9, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.9, and 0.1% between the theoretical and the determined masses of P01083, P17314, P16850, P01085, P16851, P16159, and P83207, respectively. Overall, the study allowed establishing an efficient purification process of the most important wheat ATIs. This paves the way for further in-depth investigation of the ATIs to gain more knowledge related to their involvement in NCWS disease and to allow the absolute quantification in wheat samples.
Older adults with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) who in addition to their memory deficits also suffer from frontal-executive dysfunctions have a higher risk of developing dementia later in their lives than older adults with aMCI without executive deficits and older adults with non-amnestic MCI (naMCI). Handgrip strength (HGS) is also correlated with the risk of cognitive decline in the elderly. Hence, the current study aimed to investigate the associations between HGS and executive functioning in individuals with aMCI, naMCI and healthy controls. Older, right-handed adults with amnestic MCI (aMCI), non-amnestic MCI (naMCI), and healthy controls (HC) conducted a handgrip strength measurement via a handheld dynamometer. Executive functions were assessed with the Trail Making Test (TMT A&B). Normalized handgrip strength (nHGS, normalized to Body Mass Index (BMI)) was calculated and its associations with executive functions (operationalized through z-scores of TMT B/A ratio) were investigated through partial correlation analyses (i.e., accounting for age, sex, and severity of depressive symptoms). A positive and low-to-moderate correlation between right nHGS (rp (22) = 0.364; p = 0.063) and left nHGS (rp (22) = 0.420; p = 0.037) and executive functioning in older adults with aMCI but not in naMCI or HC was observed. Our results suggest that higher levels of nHGS are linked to better executive functioning in aMCI but not naMCI and HC. This relationship is perhaps driven by alterations in the integrity of the hippocampal-prefrontal network occurring in older adults with aMCI. Further research is needed to provide empirical evidence for this assumption.
One aspect of achieving a more sustainable chemical industry is the minimization of the usage of solvents and chemicals. Thus, optimization and development of chemical processes for large-scale production is favourably performed in small batches. The critical step in this approach is upscaling the batches from the small reaction systems to the large reactors mandatory for cost efficient production in an industrial environment. Scaling up the bulk volume always goes along with increasing the surface where the reaction medium is in contact with the confining vessel. Since volume scales proportional with the cubic dimension while the surface scales quadratic, their ratio is size-dependent. The influence of reaction vessel walls can change the reaction performance. A number of phenomena occurring at the surface-liquid interface can affect reaction rates and yields, resulting in possible difficulties in predicting and extrapolating from small size production scale to large industrial processes. The application of levitated droplets as a containerless reaction vessels provides a promising possibility to avoid the above-mentioned issues.
In the presented work, an efficient coupling of acoustically levitated droplets to an ion mobility (IM) spectrometer, operating at ambient conditions, was designed for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions. The design of the system comprises noncontact sampling and ionization of the droplet realised by laser desorption/ionization at 2,94 µm. The scope of the work includes fundamental studies covering understanding of laser irradiation of droplets enclosed in an acoustical field. Understanding of this phenomenon is crucial to comprehending the effects of temporal and spatial resolution of the generated ion plume that influence the resolution of the system.
The set-up includes an acoustic trap, laser irradiation and ion manipulation electrostatic lenses operating at high voltage at ambient pressure. The complexity of the design needs to fully be considered for an effective ion transfer at the interface region between the levitated droplet and IM spectrometer. For sampling and ionization, two distinct laser pulse lengths were evaluated, ns and µs. Irradiation via µs laser pulses provides several advantages: i) the droplet volume is not extensively impinged, as in case of ns laser pulses, allowing the sampling of only the small volume of the droplet; ii) the lower fluence results in less pronounced oscillations of the droplet confined in the acoustic field. The droplet will not be dissipated out of the acoustic field leading to loss of the sample; iii) the mild laser irradiation results in better spatial and temporal ion plume confinement, leading to better resolution of the detected ion packets. Finally, this knowledge allows the application of ion optics necessary to induce ion flow between the droplet suspended in the acoustic field and the IM spectrometer. The ion optics, composed of 2 electrostatic lenses placed in the near vicinity of the droplet, allow effective focusing of the ion plume and its redirection directly to the IM spectrometer entrance. This novel coupling has proved to be successful for detection of some simple molecules ionizable at the 2.94 µm wavelength. To further demonstrate the applicability of the system, a proof-of-principle reaction was selected, fulfilling the requirements of the system, and was subjected to comprehensive investigation of its performance. Herein, the reaction between N-Boc cysteine methyl ester and allyl alcohol has been performed in a batch reactor and on-line monitored via 1H NMR to establish reaction propagation. With the additional assessment, it was confirmed that the thiol-ene coupling can be performed within first 20 minutes of the irradiation with a reaction yield above 50%, proving that the reaction can be applied as a study case to assess the possibilities of the developed system.
We collect a network dataset of tenured economics faculty in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. We rank the 100 institutions included with a minimum violation ranking. This ranking is positively and significantly correlated with the Times Higher Education ranking of economics institutions. According to the network ranking, individuals on average go down about 23 ranks from their doctoral institution to their employing institution. While the share of females in our dataset is only 15%, we do not observe a significant gender hiring gap (a difference in rank changes between male and female faculty). We conduct a robustness check with the Handelsblatt and the Times Higher Education ranking. According to these rankings, individuals on average go down only about two ranks. We do not observe a significant gender hiring gap using these two rankings (although the dataset underlying this analysis is small and these estimates are likely to be noisy). Finally, we discuss the limitations of the network ranking in our context.
Fitness, risk taking, and spatial behavior covary with boldness in experimental vole populations
(2022)
Individuals of a population may vary along a pace-of-life syndrome from highly fecund, short-lived, bold, dispersive “fast” types at one end of the spectrum to less fecund, long-lived, shy, plastic “slow” types at the other end. Risk-taking behavior might mediate the underlying life history trade-off, but empirical evidence supporting this hypothesis is still ambiguous. Using experimentally created populations of common voles (Microtus arvalis)—a species with distinct seasonal life history trajectories—we aimed to test whether individual differences in boldness behavior covary with risk taking, space use, and fitness. We quantified risk taking, space use (via automated tracking), survival, and reproductive success (via genetic parentage analysis) in 8 to 14 experimental, mixed-sex populations of 113 common voles of known boldness type in large grassland enclosures over a significant part of their adult life span and two reproductive events. Populations were assorted to contain extreme boldness types (bold or shy) of both sexes. Bolder individuals took more risks than shyer ones, which did not affect survival. Bolder males but not females produced more offspring than shy conspecifics. Daily home range and core area sizes, based on 95% and 50% Kernel density estimates (20 ± 10 per individual, n = 54 individuals), were highly repeatable over time. Individual space use unfolded differently for sex-boldness type combinations over the course of the experiment. While day ranges decreased for shy females, they increased for bold females and all males. Space use trajectories may, hence, indicate differences in coping styles when confronted with a novel social and physical environment. Thus, interindividual differences in boldness predict risk taking under near-natural conditions and have consequences for fitness in males, which have a higher reproductive potential than females. Given extreme inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in population density in the study species and its short life span, density-dependent fluctuating selection operating differently on the sexes might maintain (co)variation in boldness, risk taking, and pace-of-life.
What are the consequences of unemployment and precarious employment for individuals' health in Europe? What are the moderating factors that may offset (or increase) the health consequences of labor-market risks? How do the effects of these risks vary across different contexts, which differ in their institutional and cultural settings? Does gender, regarded as a social structure, play a role, and how? To answer these questions is the aim of my cumulative thesis. This study aims to advance our knowledge about the health consequences that unemployment and precariousness cause over the life course. In particular, I investigate how several moderating factors, such as gender, the family, and the broader cultural and institutional context, may offset or increase the impact of employment instability and insecurity on individual health.
In my first paper, 'The buffering role of the family in the relationship between job loss and self-perceived health: Longitudinal results from Europe, 2004-2011', I and my co-authors measure the causal effect of job loss on health and the role of the family and welfare states (regimes) as moderating factors. Using EU-SILC longitudinal data (2004-2011), we estimate the probability of experiencing 'bad health' following a transition to unemployment by applying linear probability models and undertake separate analyses for men and women. Firstly, we measure whether changes in the independent variable 'job loss' lead to changes in the dependent variable 'self-rated health' for men and women separately. Then, by adding into the model different interaction terms, we measure the moderating effect of the family, both in terms of emotional and economic support, and how much it varies across different welfare regimes. As an identification strategy, we first implement static fixed-effect panel models, which control for time-varying observables and indirect health selection—i.e., constant unobserved heterogeneity. Secondly, to control for reverse causality and path dependency, we implement dynamic fixed-effect panel models, adding a lagged dependent variable to the model.
We explore the role of the family by focusing on close ties within households: we consider the presence of a stable partner and his/her working status as a source of social and economic support. According to previous literature, having a partner should reduce the stress from adverse events, thanks to the symbolic and emotional dimensions that such a relationship entails, regardless of any economic benefits. Our results, however, suggest that benefits linked to the presence of a (female) partner also come from the financial stability that (s)he can provide in terms of a second income. Furthermore, we find partners' employment to be at least as important as the mere presence of the partner in reducing the negative effect of job loss on the individual's health by maintaining the household's standard of living and decreasing economic strain on the family. Our results are in line with previous research, which has highlighted that some people cope better than others with adverse life circumstances, and the support provided by the family is a crucial resource in that regard.
We also reported an important interaction between the family and the welfare state in moderating the health consequences of unemployment, showing how the compensation effect of the family varies across welfare regimes. The family plays a decisive role in cushioning the adverse consequences of labor market risks in Southern and Eastern welfare states, characterized by less developed social protection systems and –especially the Southern – high level of familialism.
The first paper also found important gender differences concerning job loss, family and welfare effects. Of particular interest is the evidence suggesting that health selection works differently for men and women, playing a more prominent role for women than for men in explaining the relationship between job loss and self-perceived health. The second paper, 'Gender roles and selection mechanisms across contexts: A comparative analysis of the relationship between unemployment, self-perceived health, and gender.' investigates more in-depth the gender differential in health driven by unemployment.
Being a highly contested issue in literature, we aim to study whether men are more penalized than women or the other way around and the mechanisms that may explain the gender difference. To do that, we rely on two theoretical arguments: the availability of alternative roles and social selection. The first argument builds on the idea that men and women may compensate for the detrimental health consequences of unemployment through the commitment to 'alternative roles,' which can provide for the resources needed to fulfill people's socially constructed needs. Notably, the availability of alternative options depends on the different positions that men and women have in society.
Further, we merge the availability of the 'alternative roles' argument with the health selection argument. We assume that health selection could be contingent on people's social position as defined by gender and, thus, explain the gender differential in the relationship between unemployment and health. Ill people might be less reluctant to fall or remain (i.e., self-select) in unemployment if they have alternative roles. In Western societies, women generally have more alternative roles than men and thus more discretion in their labor market attachment. Therefore, health selection should be stronger for them, explaining why unemployment is less menace for women than for their male counterparts.
Finally, relying on the idea of different gender regimes, we extended these arguments to comparison across contexts. For example, in contexts where being a caregiver is assumed to be women's traditional and primary roles and the primary breadwinner role is reserved to men, unemployment is less stigmatized, and taking up alternative roles is more socially accepted for women than for men (Hp.1). Accordingly, social (self)selection should be stronger for women than for men in traditional contexts, where, in the case of ill-health, the separation from work is eased by the availability of alternative roles (Hp.2).
By focusing on contexts that are representative of different gender regimes, we implement a multiple-step comparative approach. Firstly, by using EU-SILC longitudinal data (2004-2015), our analysis tests gender roles and selection mechanisms for Sweden and Italy, representing radically different gender regimes, thus providing institutional and cultural variation. Then, we limit institutional heterogeneity by focusing on Germany and comparing East- and West-Germany and older and younger cohorts—for West-Germany (SOEP data 1995-2017). Next, to assess the differential impact of unemployment for men and women, we compared (unemployed and employed) men with (unemployed and employed) women. To do so, we calculate predicted probabilities and average marginal effect from two distinct random-effects probit models. Our first step is estimating random-effects models that assess the association between unemployment and self-perceived health, controlling for observable characteristics. In the second step, our fully adjusted model controls for both direct and indirect selection. We do this using dynamic correlated random-effects (CRE) models. Further, based on the fully adjusted model, we test our hypotheses on alternative roles (Hp.1) by comparing several contexts – models are estimated separately for each context. For this hypothesis, we pool men and women and include an interaction term between unemployment and gender, which has the advantage to allow for directly testing whether gender differences in the effect of unemployment exist and are statistically significant. Finally, we test the role of selection mechanisms (Hp.2), using the KHB method to compare coefficients across nested nonlinear models. Specifically, we test the role of selection for the relationship between unemployment and health by comparing the partially-adjusted and fully-adjusted models. To allow selection mechanisms to operate differently between genders, we estimate separate models for men and women.
We found support to our first hypotheses—the context where people are embedded structures the relationship between unemployment, health, and gender. We found no gendered effect of unemployment on health in the egalitarian context of Sweden. Conversely, in the traditional context of Italy, we observed substantive and statistically significant gender differences in the effect of unemployment on bad health, with women suffering less than men. We found the same pattern for comparing East and West Germany and younger and older cohorts in West Germany.
On the contrary, our results did not support our theoretical argument on social selection. We found that in Sweden, women are more selected out of employment than men. In contrast, in Italy, health selection does not seem to be the primary mechanism behind the gender differential—Italian men and women seem to be selected out of employment to the same extent. Namely, we do not find any evidence that health selection is stronger for women in more traditional countries (Hp2), despite the fact that the institutional and the cultural context would offer them a more comprehensive range of 'alternative roles' relative to men. Moreover, our second hypothesis is also rejected in the second and third comparisons, where the cross-country heterogeneity is reduced to maximize cultural differences within the same institutional context. Further research that addresses selection into inactivity is needed to evaluate the interplay between selection and social roles across gender regimes.
While the health consequences of unemployment have been on the research agenda for a pretty long time, the interest in precarious employment—defined as the linking of the vulnerable worker to work that is characterized by uncertainty and insecurity concerning pay, the stability of the work arrangement, limited access to social benefits, and statutory protections—has emerged only later. Since the 80s, scholars from different disciplines have raised concerns about the social consequences of de-standardization of employment relationships. However, while work has become undoubtedly more precarious, very little is known about its causal effect on individual health and the role of gender as a moderator. These questions are at the core of my third paper : 'Bad job, bad health? A longitudinal analysis of the interaction between precariousness, gender and self-perceived health in Germany'. Herein, I investigate the multidimensional nature of precarious employment and its causal effect on health, particularly focusing on gender differences.
With this paper, I aim at overcoming three major shortcomings of earlier studies: The first one regards the cross-sectional nature of data that prevents the authors from ruling out unobserved heterogeneity as a mechanism for the association between precarious employment and health. Indeed, several unmeasured individual characteristics—such as cognitive abilities—may confound the relationship between precarious work and health, leading to biased results. Secondly, only a few studies have directly addressed the role of gender in shaping the relationship. Moreover, available results on the gender differential are mixed and inconsistent: some found precarious employment being more detrimental for women's health, while others found no gender differences or stronger negative association for men. Finally, previous attempts to an empirical translation of the employment precariousness (EP) concept have not always been coherent with their theoretical framework. EP is usually assumed to be a multidimensional and continuous phenomenon; it is characterized by different dimensions of insecurity that may overlap in the same job and lead to different "degrees of precariousness." However, researchers have predominantly focused on one-dimensional indicators—e.g., temporary employment, subjective job insecurity—to measure EP and study the association with health. Besides the fact that this approach partially grasps the phenomenon's complexity, the major problem is the inconsistency of evidence that it has produced. Indeed, this line of inquiry generally reveals an ambiguous picture, with some studies finding substantial adverse effects of temporary over permanent employment, while others report only minor differences.
To measure the (causal) effect of precarious work on self-rated health and its variation by gender, I focus on Germany and use four waves from SOEP data (2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015). Germany is a suitable context for my study. Indeed, since the 1980s, the labor market and welfare system have been restructured in many ways to increase the German economy's competitiveness in the global market. As a result, the (standard) employment relationship has been de-standardized: non-standard and atypical employment arrangements—i.e., part-time work, fixed-term contracts, mini-jobs, and work agencies—have increased over time while wages have lowered, even among workers with standard work. In addition, the power of unions has also fallen over the last three decades, leaving a large share of workers without collective protection. Because of this process of de-standardization, the link between wage employment and strong social rights has eroded, making workers more powerless and more vulnerable to labor market risks than in the past. EP refers to this uneven distribution of power in the employment relationship, which can be detrimental to workers' health. Indeed, by affecting individuals' access to power and other resources, EP puts precarious workers at risk of experiencing health shocks and influences their ability to gain and accumulate health advantages (Hp.1).
Further, the focus on Germany allows me to investigate my second research question on the gender differential. Germany is usually regarded as a traditionalist gender regime: a context characterized by a configuration of roles. Here, being a caregiver is assumed to be women's primary role, whereas the primary breadwinner role is reserved for men. Although many signs of progress have been made over the last decades towards a greater equalization of opportunities and more egalitarianism, the breadwinner model has barely changed towards a modified version. Thus, women usually take on the double role of workers (the so-called secondary earner) and caregivers, and men still devote most of their time to paid work activities. Moreover, the overall upward trend towards more egalitarian gender ideologies has leveled off over the last decades, moving notably towards more traditional gender ideologies.
In this setting, two alternative hypotheses are possible. Firstly, I assume that the negative relationship between EP and health is stronger for women than for men. This is because women are systematically more disadvantaged than men in the public and private spheres of life, having less access to formal and informal sources of power. These gender-related power asymmetries may interact with EP-related power asymmetries resulting in a stronger effect of EP on women's health than on men's health (Hp.2).
An alternative way of looking at the gender differential is to consider the interaction that precariousness might have with men's and women's gender identities. According to this view, the negative relationship between EP and health is weaker for women than for men (Hp.2a). In a society with a gendered division of labor and a strong link between masculine identities and stable and well-rewarded job—i.e., a job that confers the role of primary family provider—a male worker with precarious employment might violate the traditional male gender role. Men in precarious jobs may perceive themselves (and by others) as possessing a socially undesirable characteristic, which conflicts with the stereotypical idea of themselves as the male breadwinner. Engaging in behaviors that contradict stereotypical gender identity may decrease self-esteem and foster feelings of inferiority, helplessness, and jealousy, leading to poor health.
I develop a new indicator of EP that empirically translates a definition of EP as a multidimensional and continuous phenomenon. I assume that EP is a latent construct composed of seven dimensions of insecurity chosen according to the theory and previous empirical research: Income insecurity, social insecurity, legal insecurity, employment insecurity, working-time insecurity, representation insecurity, worker's vulnerability. The seven dimensions are proxied by eight indicators available in the four waves of the SOEP dataset. The EP composite indicator is obtained by performing a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) on the eight indicators. This approach aims to construct a summary scale in which all dimensions contribute jointly to the measured experience of precariousness and its health impact.
Further, the relationship between EP and 'general self-perceived health' is estimated by applying ordered probit random-effects estimators and calculating average marginal effect (further AME). Then, to control for unobserved heterogeneity, I implement correlated random-effects models that add to the model the within-individual means of the time-varying independent variables. To test the significance of the gender differential, I add an interaction term between EP and gender in the fully adjusted model in the pooled sample.
My correlated random-effects models showed EP's negative and substantial 'effect' on self-perceived health for both men and women. Although nonsignificant, the evidence seems in line with previous cross-sectional literature. It supports the hypothesis that employment precariousness could be detrimental to workers' health. Further, my results showed the crucial role of unobserved heterogeneity in shaping the health consequences of precarious employment. This is particularly important as evidence accumulates, yet it is still mostly descriptive.
Moreover, my results revealed a substantial difference among men and women in the relationship between EP and health: when EP increases, the risk of experiencing poor health increases much more for men than for women. This evidence falsifies previous theory according to whom the gender differential is contingent on the structurally disadvantaged position of women in western societies. In contrast, they seem to confirm the idea that men in precarious work could experience role conflict to a larger extent than women, as their self-standard is supposed to be the stereotypical breadwinner worker with a good and well-rewarded job. Finally, results from the multiple correspondence analysis contribute to the methodological debate on precariousness, showing that a multidimensional and continuous indicator can express a latent variable of EP.
All in all, complementarities are revealed in the results of unemployment and employment precariousness, which have two implications: Policy-makers need to be aware that the total costs of unemployment and precariousness go far beyond the economic and material realm penetrating other fundamental life domains such as individual health. Moreover, they need to balance the trade-off between protecting adequately unemployed people and fostering high-quality employment in reaction to the highlighted market pressures. In this sense, the further development of a (universalistic) welfare state certainly helps mitigate the adverse health effects of unemployment and, therefore, the future costs of both individuals' health and welfare spending. In addition, the presence of a working partner is crucial for reducing the health consequences of employment instability. Therefore, policies aiming to increase female labor market participation should be promoted, especially in those contexts where the welfare state is less developed.
Moreover, my results support the significance of taking account of a gender perspective in health research. The findings of the three articles show that job loss, unemployment, and precarious employment, in general, have adverse effects on men's health but less or absent consequences for women's health. Indeed, this suggests the importance of labor and health policies that consider and further distinguish the specific needs of the male and female labor force in Europe. Nevertheless, a further implication emerges: the health consequences of employment instability and de-standardization need to be investigated in light of the gender arrangements and the transforming gender relationships in specific cultural and institutional contexts. My results indeed seem to suggest that women's health advantage may be a transitory phenomenon, contingent on the predominant gendered institutional and cultural context. As the structural difference between men's and women's position in society is eroded, egalitarianism becomes the dominant normative status, so will probably be the gender difference in the health consequences of job loss and precariousness. Therefore, while gender equality in opportunities and roles is a desirable aspect for contemporary societies and a political goal that cannot be postponed further, this thesis raises a further and maybe more crucial question: What kind of equality should be pursued to provide men and women with both good life quality and equal chances in the public and private spheres? In this sense, I believe that social and labor policies aiming to reduce gender inequality in society should focus on improving women's integration into the labor market, implementing policies targeting men, and facilitating their involvement in the private sphere of life. Equal redistribution of social roles could activate a crucial transformation of gender roles and the cultural models that sustain and still legitimate gender inequality in Western societies.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.