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Recent years witnessed a vast advent of stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives. The multitude of geochemical and physical proxies and a promise of a precise and accurate age model greatly appeal to palaeoclimatologists. Although substantial progress was made in speleothem-based palaeoclimate research and despite high-resolution records from low-latitudinal regions, proving that palaeo-environmental changes can be archived on sub-annual to millennial time scales our comprehension of climate dynamics is still fragmentary. This is in particular true for the summer monsoon system on the Indian subcontinent. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As this rainfall belt migrates northward during boreal summer, it brings monsoonal rainfall. ISM strength depends however on a variety of factors, including snow cover in Central Asia and oceanic conditions in the Indic and Pacific. Presently, many of the factors influencing the ISM are known, though their exact forcing mechanism and mutual relations remain ambiguous. Attempts to make an accurate prediction of rainfall intensity and frequency and drought recurrence, which is extremely important for South Asian countries, resemble a puzzle game; all interaction need to fall into the right place to obtain a complete picture. My thesis aims to create a faithful picture of climate change in India, covering the last 11,000 ka. NE India represents a key region for the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM, as it is here where the monsoon splits into a northwestward and a northeastward directed arm. The Meghalaya Plateau is the first barrier for northward moving air masses and receives excessive summer rainfall, while the winter season is very dry. The proximity of Meghalaya to the Tibetan Plateau on the one hand and the BoB on the other hand make the study area a key location for investigating the interaction between different forcings that governs the ISM. A basis for the interpretation of palaeoclimate records, and a first important outcome of my thesis is a conceptual model which explains the observed pattern of seasonal changes in stable isotopes (d18O and d2H) in rainfall. I show that although in tropical and subtropical regions the amount effect is commonly called to explain strongly depleted isotope values during enhanced rainfall, alone it cannot account for observed rainwater isotope variability in Meghalaya. Monitoring of rainwater isotopes shows no expected negative correlation between precipitation amount and d18O of rainfall. In turn I find evidence that the runoff from high elevations carries an inherited isotopic signature into the BoB, where during the ISM season the freshwater builds a strongly depleted plume on top of the marine water. The vapor originating from this plume is likely to memorize' and transmit further very negative d18O values. The lack of data does not allow for quantication of this plume effect' on isotopes in rainfall over Meghalaya but I suggest that it varies on seasonal to millennial timescales, depending on the runoff amount and source characteristics. The focal point of my thesis is the extraction of climatic signals archived in stalagmites from NE India. High uranium concentration in the stalagmites ensured excellent age control required for successful high-resolution climate reconstructions. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and grey-scale data allow unprecedented insights into millennial to seasonal dynamics of the summer and winter monsoon in NE India. ISM strength (i. e. rainfall amount) is recorded in changes in d18Ostalagmites. The d13C signal, reflecting drip rate changes, renders a powerful proxy for dry season conditions, and shows similarities to temperature-related changes on the Tibetan Plateau. A sub-annual grey-scale profile supports a concept of lower drip rate and slower stalagmite growth during dry conditions. During the Holocene, ISM followed a millennial-scale decrease of insolation, with decadal to centennial failures resulting from atmospheric changes. The period of maximum rainfall and enhanced seasonality corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Optimum observed in Europe. After a phase of rather stable conditions, 4.5 kyr ago, the strengthening ENSO system dominated the ISM. Strong El Nino events weakened the ISM, especially when in concert with positive Indian Ocean dipole events. The strongest droughts of the last 11 kyr are recorded during the past 2 kyr. Using the advantage of a well-dated stalagmite record at hand I tested the application of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to detect sub-annual to sub-decadal changes in element concentrations in stalagmites. The development of a large ablation cell allows for ablating sample slabs of up to 22 cm total length. Each analyzed element is a potential proxy for different climatic parameters. Combining my previous results with the LAICP- MS-generated data shows that element concentration depends not only on rainfall amount and associated leaching from the soil. Additional factors, like biological activity and hydrogeochemical conditions in the soil and vadose zone can eventually affect the element content in drip water and in stalagmites. I present a theoretical conceptual model for my study site to explain how climatic signals can be transmitted and archived in stalagmite carbonate. Further, I establish a first 1500 year long element record, reconstructing rainfall variability. Additionally, I hypothesize that volcanic eruptions, producing large amounts of sulfuric acid, can influence soil acidity and hence element mobilization.
Solar photocatalysis is the one of leading concepts of research in the current paradigm of sustainable chemical industry. For actual practical implementation of sunlight-driven catalytic processes in organic synthesis, a cheap, efficient, versatile and robust heterogeneous catalyst is necessary. Carbon nitrides are a class of organic semiconductors who are known to fulfill these requirements.
First, current state of solar photocatalysis in economy, industry and lab research is overviewed, outlining EU project funding, prospective synthetic and reforming bulk processes, small scale solar organic chemistry, and existing reactor designs and prototypes, concluding feasibility of the approach.
Then, the photocatalytic aerobic cleavage of oximes to corresponding aldehydes and ketones by anionic poly(heptazine imide) carbon nitride is discussed. The reaction provides a feasible method of deprotection and formation of carbonyl compounds from nitrosation products and serves as a convenient model to study chromoselectivity and photophysics of energy transfer in heterogeneous photocatalysis.
Afterwards, the ability of mesoporous graphitic carbon nitride to conduct proton-coupled electron transfer was utilized for the direct oxygenation of 1,3-oxazolidin-2-ones to corresponding 1,3-oxazlidine-2,4-diones. This reaction provides an easier access to a key scaffold of diverse types of drugs and agrochemicals.
Finally, a series of novel carbon nitrides based on poly(triazine imide) and poly(heptazine imide) structure was synthesized from cyanamide and potassium rhodizonate. These catalysts demonstrated a good performance in a set of photocatalytic benchmark reactions, including aerobic oxidation, dual nickel photoredox catalysis, hydrogen peroxide evolution and chromoselective transformation of organosulfur precursors.
Concluding, the scope of carbon nitride utilization for net-oxidative and net-neutral photocatalytic processes was expanded, and a new tunable platform for catalyst synthesis was discovered.
Basaltic fissure eruptions, such as on Hawai'i or on Iceland, are thought to be driven by the lateral propagation of feeder dikes and graben subsidence. Associated solid earth processes, such as deformation and structural development, are well studied by means of geophysical and geodetic technologies. The eruptions themselves, lava fountaining and venting dynamics, in turn, have been much less investigated due to hazardous access, local dimension, fast processes, and resulting poor data availability.
This thesis provides a detailed quantitative understanding of the shape and dynamics of lava fountains and the morphological changes at their respective eruption sites. For this purpose, I apply image processing techniques, including drones and fixed installed cameras, to the sequence of frames of video records from two well-known fissure eruptions in Hawai'i and Iceland. This way I extract the dimensions of multiple lava fountains, visible in all frames. By putting these results together and considering the acquisition times of the frames I quantify the variations in height, width and eruption velocity of the lava fountains. Then I analyse these time-series in both time and frequency domains and investigate the similarities and correlations between adjacent lava fountains. Following this procedure, I am able to link the dynamics of the individual lava fountains to physical parameters of the magma transport in the feeder dyke of the fountains.
The first case study in this thesis focuses on the March 2011 Pu'u'O'o eruption, Hawai'i, where a continuous pulsating behaviour at all eight lava fountains has been observed. The lava fountains, even those from different parts of the fissure that are closely connected, show a similar frequency content and eruption behaviour. The regular pattern in the heights of lava fountain suggests a controlling process within the magma feeder system like a hydraulic connection in the underlying dyke, affecting or even controlling the pulsating behaviour.
The second case study addresses the 2014-2015 Holuhraun fissure eruption, Iceland. In this case, the feeder dyke is highlighted by the surface expressions of graben-like structures and fault systems. At the eruption site, the activity decreases from a continuous line of fire of ~60 vents to a limited number of lava fountains. This can be explained by preferred upwards magma movements through vertical structures of the pre-eruptive morphology. Seismic tremors during the eruption reveal vent opening at the surface and/or pressure changes in the feeder dyke. The evolving topography of the cinder cones during the eruption interacts with the lava fountain behaviour. Local variations in the lava fountain height and width are controlled by the conduit diameter, the depth of the lava pond and the shape of the crater. Modelling of the fountain heights shows that long-term eruption behaviour is controlled mainly by pressure changes in the feeder dyke.
This research consists of six chapters with four papers, including two first author and two co-author papers. It establishes a new method to analyse lava fountain dynamics by video monitoring. The comparison with the seismicity, geomorphologic and structural expressions of fissure eruptions shows a complex relationship between focussed flow through dykes, the morphology of the cinder cones, and the lava fountain dynamics at the vents of a fissure eruption.
Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death worldwide, and their prevalence is expected to rise in the coming years. Polymer-based artificial replacements have been widely used for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Coagulation and thrombus formation on the interfaces between the materials and the human physiological environment are key issues leading to the failure of the medical device in clinical implantation. The surface properties of the materials have a strong influence on the protein adsorption and can direct the blood cell adhesion behavior on the interfaces. Furthermore, implant-associated infections will be induced by bacterial adhesion and subsequent biofilm formation at the implantation site. Thus, it is important to improve the hemocompatibility of an implant by altering the surface properties. One of the effective strategies is surface passivation to achieve protein/cell repelling ability to reduce the risk of thrombosis.
This thesis consists of synthesis, functionalization, sterilization, and biological evaluation of bulk poly(glycerol glycidyl ether) (polyGGE), which is a highly crosslinked polyether-based polymer synthesized by cationic ring-opening polymerization. PolyGGE is hypothesized to be able to resist plasma protein adsorption and bacterial adhesion due to analogous chemical structure as polyethylene glycol and hyperbranched polyglycerol. Hydroxyl end groups of polyGGE provide possibilities to be functionalized with sulfates to mimic the anti-thrombogenic function of the endothelial glycocalyx.
PolyGGE was synthesized by polymerization of the commercially available monomer glycerol glycidyl ether, which was characterized as a mixture of mono-, di- and tri-glycidyl ether. Cationic ring opening-polymerization of this monomer was carried out by ultraviolet (UV) initiation of the photo-initiator diphenyliodonium hexafluorophosphate. With the increased UV curing time, more epoxides in the side chains of the monomers participated in chemical crosslinking, resulting in an increase of Young’s modulus, while the value of elongation at break of polyGGE first increased due to the propagation of the polymer chains then decreased with the increase of crosslinking density. Eventually, the chain propagation can be effectively terminated by potassium hydroxide aqueous solution. PolyGGE exhibited different tensile properties in hydrated conditions at body temperature compared to the values in the dry state at room temperature. Both Young’s modulus and values of elongation at break were remarkably reduced when tested in water at 37 °C, which was above the glass transition temperature of polyGGE. At physiological conditions, entanglements of the ployGGE networks unfolded and the free volume of networks were replaced by water molecules as softener, which increased the mobility of the polymer chains, resulting in a lower Young’s modulus.
Protein adsorption analysis was performed on polyGGE films with 30 min UV curing using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. PolyGGE could effectively prevent the adsorption of human plasma fibrinogen, albumin, and fibronectin at the interface of human plasma and polyGGE films. The protein resistance of polyGGE was comparable to the negative controls: the hemocompatible polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), showing its potential as a coating material for cardiovascular implants. Moreover, antimicrobial tests of bacterial activity using isothermal microcalorimetry and the microscopic image of direct bacteria culturing demonstrated that polyGGE could directly interfere biofilm formation and growth of both Gram-negative and antibiotic-resistant Gram-positive bacteria, indicating the potential application of polyGGE for combating the risk of hospital-acquired infections and preventing drug-resistant superbug spreading.
To investigate its cell compatibility, polyGGE films were extracted by different solvents (ethanol, chloroform, acetone) and cell culture medium. Indirect cytotoxicity tests showed extracted polyGGE films still had toxic effects on L929 fibroblast cells. High-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization mass spectrometry revealed the occurrence of organochlorine-containing compounds released during the polymer-cell culture medium interaction. A constant level of those organochlorine-containing compounds was confirmed from GGE monomer by a specific peak of C-Cl stretching in infrared spectra of GGE. This is assumed to be the main reason causing the increased cell membrane permeability and decreased metabolic activity, leading to cell death. Attempts as changing solvents were made to remove toxic substances, however, the release of these small molecules seems to be sluggish. The densely crosslinked polyGGE networks can possibly contribute to the trapping of organochlorine-containing compounds. These results provide valuable information for exploring the potentially toxic substances, leaching from polyGGE networks, and propose a feasible strategy for minimizing the cytotoxicity via reducing their crosslinking density.
Sulfamic acid/ N-Methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) were selected as the reagents for the sulfation of polyGGE surfaces. Fourier transform attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FT-IR) was used to monitor the functionalization kinetics and the results confirmed the successful sulfate grafting on the surface of polyGGE with the covalent bond -C-O-S-. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was used to determine the element composition on the surface and the cross-section of the functionalized polyGGE and sulfation within 15 min guarantees the sulfation only takes place on the surface while not occurring in the bulk of the polymer. The concentration of grafted sulfates increased with the increasing reaction time. The hydrophilicity of the surface of polyGGE was highly increased due to the increase of negatively charged end groups. Three sterilization techniques including autoclaving, gamma irradiation, and ethylene oxide (EtO) sterilization were used for polyGGE sulfates. Results from ATR-FT-IR and Toluidine Blue O quantitative assay demonstrated the total loss of the sulfates after autoclave sterilization, which was also confirmed by the increased water contact angle. Little influence on the concentration of sulfates was found for gamma-irradiated and autoclaving sterilized polyGGE sulfates. To investigate the thermal influence on polyGGE sulfates, one strategy was to use poly(hydroxyethyl acrylate) sulfates (PHEAS) for modeling. The thermogravimetric analysis profile of PHEAS demonstrated that sulfates are not thermally stable independent of the substrate materials and decomposition of sulfates occurs at around 100 °C. Although gamma irradiation also showed little negative effect on the sulfate content, the color change in the polyGGE sulfates indicates chemical or physical change might occur in the polymer. EtO sterilization was validated as the most suitable sterilization technique to maintain the chemical structure of polyGGE sulfates.
In conclusion, the conducted work proved that bulk polyGGE can be used as an antifouling coating material and shows its antimicrobial potential. Sulfates functionalization can be effectively realized using sulfamic acid/NMP. EtO sterilization is the most suitable sterilization technique for grafted sulfates. Besides, this thesis also offers a good strategy for the analysis of toxic leachable substances using suitable physicochemical characterization techniques. Future work will focus on minimizing/eliminating the release of toxic substances via reducing the crosslinking density. Another interesting aspect is to study whether grafted sulfates can meet the need for anti-thrombogenicity.
In biological cells, the long-range intracellular traffic is powered by molecular motors which transport various cargos along microtubule filaments. The microtubules possess an intrinsic direction, having a 'plus' and a 'minus' end. Some molecular motors such as cytoplasmic dynein walk to the minus end, while others such as conventional kinesin walk to the plus end. Cells typically have an isopolar microtubule network. This is most pronounced in neuronal axons or fungal hyphae. In these long and thin tubular protrusions, the microtubules are arranged parallel to the tube axis with the minus ends pointing to the cell body and the plus ends pointing to the tip. In such a tubular compartment, transport by only one motor type leads to 'motor traffic jams'. Kinesin-driven cargos accumulate at the tip, while dynein-driven cargos accumulate near the cell body. We identify the relevant length scales and characterize the jamming behaviour in these tube geometries by using both Monte Carlo simulations and analytical calculations. A possible solution to this jamming problem is to transport cargos with a team of plus and a team of minus motors simultaneously, so that they can travel bidirectionally, as observed in cells. The presumably simplest mechanism for such bidirectional transport is provided by a 'tug-of-war' between the two motor teams which is governed by mechanical motor interactions only. We develop a stochastic tug-of-war model and study it with numerical and analytical calculations. We find a surprisingly complex cooperative motility behaviour. We compare our results to the available experimental data, which we reproduce qualitatively and quantitatively.
Microswimmers, i.e. swimmers of micron size experiencing low Reynolds numbers, have received a great deal of attention in the last years, since many applications are envisioned in medicine and bioremediation. A promising field is the one of magnetic swimmers, since magnetism is biocom-patible and could be used to direct or actuate the swimmers. This thesis studies two examples of magnetic microswimmers from a physics point of view.
The first system to be studied are magnetic cells, which can be magnetic biohybrids (a swimming cell coupled with a magnetic synthetic component) or magnetotactic bacteria (naturally occurring bacteria that produce an intracellular chain of magnetic crystals). A magnetic cell can passively interact with external magnetic fields, which can be used for direction. The aim of the thesis is to understand how magnetic cells couple this magnetic interaction to their swimming strategies, mainly how they combine it with chemotaxis (the ability to sense external gradient of chemical species and to bias their walk on these gradients). In particular, one open question addresses the advantage given by these magnetic interactions for the magnetotactic bacteria in a natural environment, such as porous sediments. In the thesis, a modified Active Brownian Particle model is used to perform simulations and to reproduce experimental data for different systems such as bacteria swimming in the bulk, in a capillary or in confined geometries. I will show that magnetic fields speed up chemotaxis under special conditions, depending on parameters such as their swimming strategy (run-and-tumble or run-and-reverse), aerotactic strategy (axial or polar), and magnetic fields (intensities and orientations), but it can also hinder bacterial chemotaxis depending on the system.
The second example of magnetic microswimmer are rigid magnetic propellers such as helices or random-shaped propellers. These propellers are actuated and directed by an external rotating magnetic field. One open question is how shape and magnetic properties influence the propeller behavior; the goal of this research field is to design the best propeller for a given situation. The aim of the thesis is to propose a simulation method to reproduce the behavior of experimentally-realized propellers and to determine their magnetic properties. The hydrodynamic simulations are based on the use of the mobility matrix. As main result, I propose a method to match the experimental data, while showing that not only shape but also the magnetic properties influence the propellers swimming characteristics.
Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.
The light reactions of photosynthesis are carried out by a series of multiprotein complexes embedded in thylakoid membranes. Among them, photosystem I (PSI), acting as plastocyanin-ferderoxin oxidoreductase, catalyzes the final reaction. Together with light-harvesting antenna I, PSI forms a high-molecular-weight supercomplex of ~600 kDa, consisting of eighteen subunits and nearly two hundred co-factors. Assembly of the various components into a functional thylakoid membrane complex requires precise coordination, which is provided by the assembly machinery. Although this includes a small number of proteins (PSI assembly factors) that have been shown to play a role in the formation of PSI, the process as a whole, as well as the intricacy of its members, remains largely unexplored.
In the present work, two approaches were used to find candidate PSI assembly factors. First, EnsembleNet was used to select proteins thought to be functionally related to known PSI assembly factors in Arabidopsis thaliana (approach I), and second, co-immunoprecipitation (Co-IP) of tagged PSI assembly factors in Nicotiana tabacum was performed (approach II).
Here, the novel PSI assembly factors designated CO-EXPRESSED WITH PSI ASSEMBLY 1 (CEPA1) and Ycf4-INTERACTING PROTEIN 1 (Y4IP1) were identified. A. thaliana null mutants for CEPA1 and Y4IP1 showed a growth phenotype and pale leaves compared with the wild type. Biophysical experiments using pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) revealed insufficient electron transport on the PSII acceptor side. Biochemical analyses revealed that both CEPA1 and Y4IP1 are specifically involved in PSI accumulation in A. thaliana at the post-translational level but are not essential. Consistent with their roles as factors in the assembly of a thylakoid membrane protein complex, the two proteins localize to thylakoid membranes. Remarkably, cepa1 y4ip1 double mutants exhibited lethal phenotypes in early developmental stages under photoautotrophic growth. Finally, co-IP and native gel experiments supported a possible role for CEPA1 and Y4IP1 in mediating PSI assembly in conjunction with other PSI assembly factors (e.g., PPD1- and PSA3-CEPA1 and Ycf4-Y4IP1). The fact that CEPA1 and Y4IP1 are found exclusively in green algae and higher plants suggests eukaryote-specific functions. Although the specific mechanisms need further investigation, CEPA1 and Y4IP1 are two novel assembly factors that contribute to PSI formation.
Am 14. August 1980 begannen die Arbeiter*innen auf der Danziger Leninwerft einen Besetzungsstreik, in deren Folge die erste unabhängige Gewerkschaft Solidarność gegründet wurde. Einen Monat später am 17. September 1980 gingen auf der anderen Seite des „Eisernen Vorhangs“ die Arbeiter*innen der „AG Weser“ Werft in Bremen auf die Straße, um gegen den Verlust ihrer Arbeitsplätze zu protestieren. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt aus einer Perspektive „von unten“, wie seit den 1970er Jahren Betriebe in zwei unterschiedlichen politisch-ökonomischen Systeme auf technische Veränderungen und die verschärfte Konkurrenz auf dem Weltmarkt reagierten und verweist darauf, dass die Krisen in Ost und West Ende der 1970er Jahre eng miteinander verbunden waren.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.