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Institute
- Extern (424) (remove)
We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology.
We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is – starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others – firm managers – determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.
The Arctic is the hot spot of the ongoing, global climate change. Over the last decades, near-surface temperatures in the Arctic have been rising almost four times faster than on global average. This amplified warming of the Arctic and the associated rapid changes of its environment are largely influenced by interactions between individual components of the Arctic climate system. On daily to weekly time scales, storms can have major impacts on the Arctic sea-ice cover and are thus an important part of these interactions within the Arctic climate. The sea-ice impacts of storms are related to high wind speeds, which enhance the drift and deformation of sea ice, as well as to changes in the surface energy budget in association with air mass advection, which impact the seasonal sea-ice growth and melt.
The occurrence of storms in the Arctic is typically associated with the passage of transient cyclones. Even though the above described mechanisms how storms/cyclones impact the Arctic sea ice are in principal known, there is a lack of statistical quantification of these effects. In accordance with that, the overarching objective of this thesis is to statistically quantify cyclone impacts on sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean over the last four decades. In order to further advance the understanding of the related mechanisms, an additional objective is to separate dynamic and thermodynamic cyclone impacts on sea ice and assess their relative importance. Finally, this thesis aims to quantify recent changes in cyclone impacts on SIC. These research objectives are tackled utilizing various data sets, including atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data as well as a coupled model simulation and a cyclone tracking algorithm.
Results from this thesis demonstrate that cyclones are significantly impacting SIC in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean from autumn to spring, while there are mostly no significant impacts in summer. The strength and the sign (SIC decreasing or SIC increasing) of the cyclone impacts strongly depends on the considered daily time scale and the region of the Atlantic Arctic Ocean. Specifically, an initial decrease in SIC (day -3 to day 0 relative to the cyclone) is found in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas, while SIC increases following cyclones (day 0 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) are mostly limited to the Barents and Kara Seas.
For the cold season, this results in a pronounced regional difference between overall (day -3 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) SIC-decreasing cyclone impacts in the Greenland Sea and overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in the Barents and Kara Seas. A cyclone case study based on a coupled model simulation indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms contribute to cyclone impacts on sea ice in winter. A typical pattern consisting of an initial dominance of dynamic sea-ice changes followed by enhanced thermodynamic ice growth after the cyclone passage was found. This enhanced ice growth after the cyclone passage most likely also explains the (statistical) overall SIC-increasing effects of cyclones in the Barents and Kara Seas in the cold season.
Significant changes in cyclone impacts on SIC over the last four decades have emerged throughout the year. These recent changes are strongly varying from region to region and month to month. The strongest trends in cyclone impacts on SIC are found in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas. Here, the magnitude of destructive cyclone impacts on SIC has approximately doubled over the last four decades. The SIC-increasing effects following the cyclone passage have particularly weakened in the Barents Sea in autumn. As a consequence, previously existing overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in this region in autumn have recently disappeared. Generally, results from this thesis show that changes in the state of the sea-ice cover (decrease in mean sea-ice concentration and thickness) and near-surface air temperature are most important for changed cyclone impacts on SIC, while changes in cyclone properties (i.e. intensity) do not play a significant role.
The increasing number of known exoplanets raises questions about their demographics and the mechanisms that shape planets into how we observe them today. Young planets in close-in orbits are exposed to harsh environments due to the host star being magnetically highly active, which results in high X-ray and extreme UV fluxes impinging on the planet. Prolonged exposure to this intense photoionizing radiation can cause planetary atmospheres to heat up, expand and escape into space via a hydrodynamic escape process known as photoevaporation. For super-Earth and sub-Neptune-type planets, this can even lead to the complete erosion of their primordial gaseous atmospheres. A factor of interest for this particular mass-loss process is the activity evolution of the host star. Stellar rotation, which drives the dynamo and with it the magnetic activity of a star, changes significantly over the stellar lifetime. This strongly affects the amount of high-energy radiation received by a planet as stars age. At a young age, planets still host warm and extended envelopes, making them particularly susceptible to atmospheric evaporation. Especially in the first gigayear, when X-ray and UV levels can be 100 - 10,000 times higher than for the present-day sun, the characteristics of the host star and the detailed evolution of its high-energy emission are of importance.
In this thesis, I study the impact of stellar activity evolution on the high-energy-induced atmospheric mass loss of young exoplanets. The PLATYPOS code was developed as part of this thesis to calculate photoevaporative mass-loss rates over time. The code, which couples parameterized planetary mass-radius relations with an analytical hydrodynamic escape model, was used, together with Chandra and eROSITA X-ray observations, to investigate the future mass loss of the two young multiplanet systems V1298 Tau and K2-198. Further, in a numerical ensemble study, the effect of a realistic spread of activity tracks on the small-planet radius gap was investigated for the first time. The works in this thesis show that for individual systems, in particular if planetary masses are unconstrained, the difference between a young host star following a low-activity track vs. a high-activity one can have major implications: the exact shape of the activity evolution can determine whether a planet can hold on to some of its atmosphere, or completely loses its envelope, leaving only the bare rocky core behind. For an ensemble of simulated planets, an observationally-motivated distribution of activity tracks does not substantially change the final radius distribution at ages of several gigayears. My simulations indicate that the overall shape and slope of the resulting small-planet radius gap is not significantly affected by the spread in stellar activity tracks. However, it can account for a certain scattering or fuzziness observed in and around the radius gap of the observed exoplanet population.
The icosahedral non-hydrostatic large eddy model (ICON-LEM) was applied around the drift track of the Multidisciplinary Observatory Study of the Arctic (MOSAiC) in 2019 and 2020. The model was set up with horizontal grid-scales between 100m and 800m on areas with radii of 17.5km and 140 km. At its lateral boundaries, the model was driven by analysis data from the German Weather Service (DWD), downscaled by ICON in limited area mode (ICON-LAM) with horizontal grid-scale of 3 km.
The aim of this thesis was the investigation of the atmospheric boundary layer near the surface in the central Arctic during polar winter with a high-resolution mesoscale model. The default settings in ICON-LEM prevent the model from representing the exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer in accordance to the MOSAiC observations. The implemented sea-ice scheme in ICON does not include a snow layer on sea-ice, which causes a too slow response of the sea-ice surface temperature to atmospheric changes. To allow the sea-ice surface to respond faster to changes in the atmosphere, the implemented sea-ice parameterization in ICON was extended with an adapted heat capacity term.
The adapted sea-ice parameterization resulted in better agreement with the MOSAiC observations. However, the sea-ice surface temperature in the model is generally lower than observed due to biases in the downwelling long-wave radiation and the lack of complex surface structures, like leads. The large eddy resolving turbulence closure yielded a better representation of the lower boundary layer under strongly stable stratification than the non-eddy-resolving turbulence closure. Furthermore, the integration of leads into the sea-ice surface reduced the overestimation of the sensible heat flux for different weather conditions.
The results of this work help to better understand boundary layer processes in the central Arctic during the polar night. High-resolving mesoscale simulations are able to represent temporally and spatially small interactions and help to further develop parameterizations also for the application in regional and global models.
With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind’s fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation – the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere.
By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.
Large parts of the Earth’s interior are inaccessible to direct observation, yet global geodynamic processes are governed by the physical material properties under extreme pressure and temperature conditions. It is therefore essential to investigate the deep Earth’s physical properties through in-situ laboratory experiments. With this goal in mind, the optical properties of mantle minerals at high pressure offer a unique way to determine a variety of physical properties, in a straight-forward, reproducible, and time-effective manner, thus providing valuable insights into the physical processes of the deep Earth. This thesis focusses on the system Mg-Fe-O, specifically on the optical properties of periclase (MgO) and its iron-bearing variant ferropericlase ((Mg,Fe)O), forming a major planetary building block. The primary objective is to establish links between physical material properties and optical properties. In particular the spin transition in ferropericlase, the second-most abundant phase of the lower mantle, is known to change the physical material properties. Although the spin transition region likely extends down to the core-mantle boundary, the ef-fects of the mixed-spin state, where both high- and low-spin state are present, remains poorly constrained.
In the studies presented herein, we show how optical properties are linked to physical properties such as electrical conductivity, radiative thermal conductivity and viscosity. We also show how the optical properties reveal changes in the chemical bonding. Furthermore, we unveil how the chemical bonding, the optical and other physical properties are affected by the iron spin transition. We find opposing trends in the pres-sure dependence of the refractive index of MgO and (Mg,Fe)O. From 1 atm to ~140 GPa, the refractive index of MgO decreases by ~2.4% from 1.737 to 1.696 (±0.017). In contrast, the refractive index of (Mg0.87Fe0.13)O (Fp13) and (Mg0.76Fe0.24)O (Fp24) ferropericlase increases with pressure, likely because Fe Fe interactions between adjacent iron sites hinder a strong decrease of polarizability, as it is observed with increasing density in the case of pure MgO. An analysis of the index dispersion in MgO (decreasing by ~23% from 1 atm to ~103 GPa) reflects a widening of the band gap from ~7.4 eV at 1 atm to ~8.5 (±0.6) eV at ~103 GPa. The index dispersion (between 550 and 870 nm) of Fp13 reveals a decrease by a factor of ~3 over the spin transition range (~44–100 GPa). We show that the electrical band gap of ferropericlase significantly widens up to ~4.7 eV in the mixed spin region, equivalent to an increase by a factor of ~1.7. We propose that this is due to a lower electron mobility between adjacent Fe2+ sites of opposite spin, explaining the previously observed low electrical conductivity in the mixed spin region. From the study of absorbance spectra in Fp13, we show an increasing covalency of the Fe-O bond with pressure for high-spin ferropericlase, whereas in the low-spin state a trend to a more ionic nature of the Fe-O bond is observed, indicating a bond weakening effect of the spin transition. We found that the spin transition is ultimately caused by both an increase of the ligand field-splitting energy and a decreasing spin-pairing energy of high-spin Fe2+.
Leadership plays an important role for the efficient and fair solution of social dilemmas but the effectiveness of a leader can vary substantially. Two main factors of leadership impact are the ability to induce high contributions by all group members and the (expected) fair use of power. Participants in our experiment decide about contributions to a public good. After all contributions are made, the leader can choose how much of the joint earnings to assign to herself; the remainder is distributed equally among the followers. Using machine learning techniques, we study whether the content of initial open statements by the group members predicts their behavior as a leader and whether groups are able to identify such clues and endogenously appoint a “good” leader to solve the dilemma. We find that leaders who promise fairness are more likely to behave fairly, and that followers appoint as leaders those who write more explicitly about fairness and efficiency. However, in their contribution decision, followers focus on the leader’s first-move contribution and place less importance on the content of the leader’s statements.
Access to digital finance
(2024)
Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated with differences across three countries and seven platforms. Using a novel dataset of successful fundraising on the most prominent platforms in the UK, Germany, and the USA, we find the underlying relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised for entrepreneurs is loglinear, with a coefficient less than one and concave to the origin. We identify significant variation in the average amount invested in each pitch across countries and platforms. Our findings have implications for market actors as well as regulators who set competitive frameworks.
Earthquake modeling is the key to a profound understanding of a rupture. Its kinematics or dynamics are derived from advanced rupture models that allow, for example, to reconstruct the direction and velocity of the rupture front or the evolving slip distribution behind the rupture front. Such models are often parameterized by a lattice of interacting sub-faults with many degrees of freedom, where, for example, the time history of the slip and rake on each sub-fault are inverted. To avoid overfitting or other numerical instabilities during a finite-fault estimation, most models are stabilized by geometric rather than physical constraints such as smoothing.
As a basis for the inversion approach of this study, we build on a new pseudo-dynamic rupture model (PDR) with only a few free parameters and a simple geometry as a physics-based solution of an earthquake rupture. The PDR derives the instantaneous slip from a given stress drop on the fault plane, with boundary conditions on the developing crack surface guaranteed at all times via a boundary element approach. As a side product, the source time function on each point on the rupture plane is not constraint and develops by itself without additional parametrization. The code was made publicly available as part of the Pyrocko and Grond Python packages. The approach was compared with conventional modeling for different earthquakes. For example, for the Mw 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, the effects of geometric changes in the rupture surface on the slip and slip rate distributions could be reproduced by simply projecting stress vectors. For the Mw 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, strike-slip earthquake, we also modelled rupture propagation using the 2D Eikonal equation and assuming a linear relationship between rupture and shear wave velocity. This allowed us to give a deeper and faster propagating rupture front and the resulting upward refraction as a new possible explanation for the apparent supershear observed at the Earth's surface.
The thesis investigates three aspects of earthquake inversion using PDR: (1) to test whether implementing a simplified rupture model with few parameters into a probabilistic Bayesian scheme without constraining geometric parameters is feasible, and whether this leads to fast and robust results that can be used for subsequent fast information systems (e.g., ground motion predictions). (2) To investigate whether combining broadband and strong-motion seismic records together with near-field ground deformation data improves the reliability of estimated rupture models in a Bayesian inversion. (3) To investigate whether a complex rupture can be represented by the inversion of multiple PDR sources and for what type of earthquakes this is recommended.
I developed the PDR inversion approach and applied the joint data inversions to two seismic sequences in different tectonic settings. Using multiple frequency bands and a multiple source inversion approach, I captured the multi-modal behaviour of the Mw 8.2 2021 South Sandwich subduction earthquake with a large, curved and slow rupturing shallow earthquake bounded by two faster and deeper smaller events. I could cross-validate the results with other methods, i.e., P-wave energy back-projection, a clustering analysis of aftershocks and a simple tsunami forward model.
The joint analysis of ground deformation and seismic data within a multiple source inversion also shed light on an earthquake triplet, which occurred in July 2022 in SE Iran. From the inversion and aftershock relocalization, I found indications for a vertical separation between the shallower mainshocks within the sedimentary cover and deeper aftershocks at the sediment-basement interface. The vertical offset could be caused by the ductile response of the evident salt layer to stress perturbations from the mainshocks.
The applications highlight the versatility of the simple PDR in probabilistic seismic source inversion capturing features of rather different, complex earthquakes. Limitations, as the evident focus on the major slip patches of the rupture are discussed as well as differences to other finite fault modeling methods.