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Metals are often used in environments that are conducive to corrosion, which leads to a reduction in their mechanical properties and durability. Coatings are applied to corrosion-prone metals such as aluminum alloys to inhibit the destructive surface process of corrosion in a passive or active way. Standard anticorrosive coatings function as a physical barrier between the material and the corrosive environment and provide passive protection only when intact. In contrast, active protection prevents or slows down corrosion even when the main barrier is damaged. The most effective industrially used active corrosion inhibition for aluminum alloys is provided by chromate conversion coatings. However, their toxicity and worldwide restriction provoke an urgent need for finding environmentally friendly corrosion preventing systems. A promising approach to replace the toxic chromate coatings is to embed particles containing nontoxic inhibitor in a passive coating matrix. This work presents the development and optimization of effective anticorrosive coatings for the industrially important aluminum alloy, AA2024-T3 using this approach. The protective coatings were prepared by dispersing mesoporous silica containers, loaded with the nontoxic corrosion inhibitor 2-mercaptobenzothiazole, in a passive sol-gel (SiOx/ZrOx) or organic water-based layer. Two types of porous silica containers with different sizes (d ≈ 80 and 700 nm, respectively) were investigated. The studied robust containers exhibit high surface area (≈ 1000 m² g-1), narrow pore size distribution (dpore ≈ 3 nm) and large pore volume (≈ 1 mL g-1) as determined by N2 sorption measurements. These properties favored the subsequent adsorption and storage of a relatively large amount of inhibitor as well as its release in response to pH changes induced by the corrosion process. The concentration, position and size of the embedded containers were varied to ascertain the optimum conditions for overall anticorrosion performance. Attaining high anticorrosion efficiency was found to require a compromise between delivering an optimal amount of corrosion inhibitor and preserving the coating barrier properties. This study broadens the knowledge about the main factors influencing the coating anticorrosion efficiency and assists the development of optimum active anticorrosive coatings doped with inhibitor loaded containers.
Data dependencies, or integrity constraints, are used to improve the quality of a database schema, to optimize queries, and to ensure consistency in a database. In the last years conditional dependencies have been introduced to analyze and improve data quality. In short, a conditional dependency is a dependency with a limited scope defined by conditions over one or more attributes. Only the matching part of the instance must adhere to the dependency. In this paper we focus on conditional inclusion dependencies (CINDs). We generalize the definition of CINDs, distinguishing covering and completeness conditions. We present a new use case for such CINDs showing their value for solving complex data quality tasks. Further, we define quality measures for conditions inspired by precision and recall. We propose efficient algorithms that identify covering and completeness conditions conforming to given quality thresholds. Our algorithms choose not only the condition values but also the condition attributes automatically. Finally, we show that our approach efficiently provides meaningful and helpful results for our use case.
Current climate warming is affecting arctic regions at a faster rate than the rest of the world. This has profound effects on permafrost that underlies most of the arctic land area. Permafrost thawing can lead to the liberation of considerable amounts of greenhouse gases as well as to significant changes in the geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology of the corresponding landscapes, which may in turn act as a positive feedback to the climate system. Vast areas of the east Siberian lowlands, which are underlain by permafrost of the Yedoma-type Ice Complex, are particularly sensitive to climate warming because of the high ice content of these permafrost deposits. Thermokarst and thermal erosion are two major types of permafrost degradation in periglacial landscapes. The associated landforms are prominent indicators of climate-induced environmental variations on the regional scale. Thermokarst lakes and basins (alasses) as well as thermo-erosional valleys are widely distributed in the coastal lowlands adjacent to the Laptev Sea. This thesis investigates the spatial distribution and morphometric properties of these degradational features to reconstruct their evolutionary conditions during the Holocene and to deduce information on the potential impact of future permafrost degradation under the projected climate warming. The methodological approach is a combination of remote sensing, geoinformation, and field investigations, which integrates analyses on local to regional spatial scales. Thermokarst and thermal erosion have affected the study region to a great extent. In the Ice Complex area of the Lena River Delta, thermokarst basins cover a much larger area than do present thermokarst lakes on Yedoma uplands (20.0 and 2.2 %, respectively), which indicates that the conditions for large-area thermokarst development were more suitable in the past. This is supported by the reconstruction of the development of an individual alas in the Lena River Delta, which reveals a prolonged phase of high thermokarst activity since the Pleistocene/Holocene transition that created a large and deep basin. After the drainage of the primary thermokarst lake during the mid-Holocene, permafrost aggradation and degradation have occurred in parallel and in shorter alternating stages within the alas, resulting in a complex thermokarst landscape. Though more dynamic than during the first phase, late Holocene thermokarst activity in the alas was not capable of degrading large portions of Pleistocene Ice Complex deposits and substantially altering the Yedoma relief. Further thermokarst development in existing alasses is restricted to thin layers of Holocene ice-rich alas sediments, because the Ice Complex deposits underneath the large primary thermokarst lakes have thawed completely and the underlying deposits are ice-poor fluvial sands. Thermokarst processes on undisturbed Yedoma uplands have the highest impact on the alteration of Ice Complex deposits, but will be limited to smaller areal extents in the future because of the reduced availability of large undisturbed upland surfaces with poor drainage. On Kurungnakh Island in the central Lena River Delta, the area of Yedoma uplands available for future thermokarst development amounts to only 33.7 %. The increasing proximity of newly developing thermokarst lakes on Yedoma uplands to existing degradational features and other topographic lows decreases the possibility for thermokarst lakes to reach large sizes before drainage occurs. Drainage of thermokarst lakes due to thermal erosion is common in the study region, but thermo-erosional valleys also provide water to thermokarst lakes and alasses. Besides these direct hydrological interactions between thermokarst and thermal erosion on the local scale, an interdependence between both processes exists on the regional scale. A regional analysis of extensive networks of thermo-erosional valleys in three lowland regions of the Laptev Sea with a total study area of 5,800 km² found that these features are more common in areas with higher slopes and relief gradients, whereas thermokarst development is more pronounced in flat lowlands with lower relief gradients. The combined results of this thesis highlight the need for comprehensive analyses of both, thermokarst and thermal erosion, in order to assess past and future impacts and feedbacks of the degradation of ice-rich permafrost on hydrology and climate of a certain region.
The present work is devoted to establishing of a new generation of self-healing anti-corrosion coatings for protection of metals. The concept of self-healing anticorrosion coatings is based on the combination of the passive part, represented by the matrix of conventional coating, and the active part, represented by micron-sized capsules loaded with corrosion inhibitor. Polymers were chosen as the class of compounds most suitable for the capsule preparation. The morphology of capsules made of crosslinked polymers, however, was found to be dependent on the nature of the encapsulated liquid. Therefore, a systematic analysis of the morphology of capsules consisting of a crosslinked polymer and a solvent was performed. Three classes of polymers such as polyurethane, polyurea and polyamide were chosen. Capsules made of these polymers and eight solvents of different polarity were synthesized via interfacial polymerization. It was shown that the morphology of the resulting capsules is specific for every polymer-solvent pair. Formation of capsules with three general types of morphology, such as core-shell, compact and multicompartment, was demonstrated by means of Scanning Electron Microscopy. Compact morphology was assumed to be a result of the specific polymer-solvent interactions and be analogues to the process of swelling. In order to verify the hypothesis, pure polyurethane, polyurea and polyamide were synthesized; their swelling behavior in the solvents used as the encapsulated material was investigated. It was shown that the swelling behavior of the polymers in most cases correlates with the capsules morphology. Different morphologies (compact, core-shell and multicompartment) were therefore attributed to the specific polymer-solvent interactions and discussed in terms of “good” and “poor” solvent. Capsules with core-shell morphology are formed when the encapsulated liquid is a “poor” solvent for the chosen polymer while compact morphologies are formed when the solvent is “good”. Multicompartment morphology is explained by the formation of infinite networks or gelation of crosslinked polymers. If gelation occurs after the phase separation in the system is achieved, core-shell morphology is present. If gelation of the polymer occurs far before crosslinking is accomplished, further condensation of the polymer due to the crosslinking may lead to the formation of porous or multicompartment morphologies. It was concluded that in general, the morphology of capsules consisting of certain polymer-solvent pairs can be predicted on the basis of polymer-solvent behavior. In some cases, the swelling behavior and morphology may not match. The reasons for that are discussed in detail in the thesis. The discussed approach is only capable of predicting capsule morphology for certain polymer-solvent pairs. In practice, the design of the capsules assumes the trial of a great number of polymer-solvent combinations; more complex systems consisting of three, four or even more components are often used. Evaluation of the swelling behavior of each component pair of such systems becomes unreasonable. Therefore, exploitation of the solubility parameter approach was found to be more useful. The latter allows consideration of the properties of each single component instead of the pair of components. In such a manner, the Hansen Solubility Parameter (HSP) approach was used for further analysis. Solubility spheres were constructed for polyurethane, polyurea and polyamide. For this a three-dimensional graph is plotted with dispersion, polar and hydrogen bonding components of solubility parameter, obtained from literature, as the orthogonal axes. The HSP of the solvents are used as the coordinates for the points on the HSP graph. Then a sphere with a certain radius is located on a graph, and the “good” solvents would be located inside the sphere, while the “poor” ones are located outside. Both the location of the sphere center and the sphere radius should be fitted according to the information on polymer swelling behavior in a number of solvents. According to the existing correlation between the capsule morphology and swelling behavior of polymers, the solvents located inside the solubility sphere of a polymer give capsules with compact morphologies. The solvents located outside the solubility sphere of the solvent give either core-shell or multicompartment capsules in combination with the chosen polymer. Once the solubility sphere of a polymer is found, the solubility/swelling behavior is approximated to all possible substances. HSP theory allows therefore prediction of polymer solubility/swelling behavior and consequently the capsule morphology for any given substance with known HSP parameters on the basis of limited data. The latter makes the theory so attractive for application in chemistry and technology, since the choice of the system components is usually performed on the basis of a large number of different parameters that should mutually match. Even slight change of the technology sometimes leads to the necessity to find the analogue of this or that solvent in a sense of solvency but carrying different chemistry. Usage of the HSP approach in this case is indispensable. In the second part of the work examples of the HSP application for the fabrication of capsules with on-demand-morphology are presented. Capsules with compact or core-shell morphology containing corrosion inhibitors were synthesized. Thus, alkoxysilanes possessing long hydrophobic tail, combining passivating and water-repelling properties, were encapsulated in polyurethane shell. The mechanism of action of the active material required core-shell morphology of the capsules. The new hybrid corrosion inhibitor, cerium diethylhexyl phosphate, was encapsulated in polyamide shells in order to facilitate the dispersion of the substance and improve its adhesion to the coating matrix. The encapsulation of commercially available antifouling agents in polyurethane shells was carried out in order to control its release behavior and colloidal stability. Capsules with compact morphology made of polyurea containing the liquid corrosion inhibitor 2-methyl benzothiazole were synthesized in order to improve the colloidal stability of the substance. Capsules with compact morphology allow slower release of the liquid encapsulated material compared to the core-shell ones. If the “in-situ” encapsulation is not possible due to the reaction of the oil-soluble monomer with the encapsulated material, a solution was proposed: loading of the capsules should be performed after monomer deactivation due to the accomplishment of the polymerization reaction. Capsules of desired morphologies should be preformed followed by the loading step. In this way, compact polyurea capsules containing the highly effective but chemically active corrosion inhibitors 8-hydroxyquinoline and benzotriazole were fabricated. All the resulting capsules were successfully introduced into model coatings. The efficiency of the resulting “smart” self-healing anticorrosion coatings on steel and aluminium alloy of the AA-2024 series was evaluated using characterization techniques such as Scanning Vibrating Electron Spectroscopy, Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy and salt-spray chamber tests.
Cargo transport by molecular motors is ubiquitous in all eukaryotic cells and is typically driven cooperatively by several molecular motors, which may belong to one or several motor species like kinesin, dynein or myosin. These motor proteins transport cargos such as RNAs, protein complexes or organelles along filaments, from which they unbind after a finite run length. Understanding how these motors interact and how their movements are coordinated and regulated is a central and challenging problem in studies of intracellular transport. In this thesis, we describe a general theoretical framework for the analysis of such transport processes, which enables us to explain the behavior of intracellular cargos based on the transport properties of individual motors and their interactions. Motivated by recent in vitro experiments, we address two different modes of transport: unidirectional transport by two identical motors and cooperative transport by actively walking and passively diffusing motors. The case of cargo transport by two identical motors involves an elastic coupling between the motors that can reduce the motors’ velocity and/or the binding time to the filament. We show that this elastic coupling leads, in general, to four distinct transport regimes. In addition to a weak coupling regime, kinesin and dynein motors are found to exhibit a strong coupling and an enhanced unbinding regime, whereas myosin motors are predicted to attain a reduced velocity regime. All of these regimes, which we derive both by analytical calculations and by general time scale arguments, can be explored experimentally by varying the elastic coupling strength. In addition, using the time scale arguments, we explain why previous studies came to different conclusions about the effect and relevance of motor-motor interference. In this way, our theory provides a general and unifying framework for understanding the dynamical behavior of two elastically coupled molecular motors. The second mode of transport studied in this thesis is cargo transport by actively pulling and passively diffusing motors. Although these passive motors do not participate in active transport, they strongly enhance the overall cargo run length. When an active motor unbinds, the cargo is still tethered to the filament by the passive motors, giving the unbound motor the chance to rebind and continue its active walk. We develop a stochastic description for such cooperative behavior and explicitly derive the enhanced run length for a cargo transported by one actively pulling and one passively diffusing motor. We generalize our description to the case of several pulling and diffusing motors and find an exponential increase of the run length with the number of involved motors.
A fine-grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three-dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south-western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5Ð5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS rainfall-induced landslides; soil creep; hydrological modelling; Vorarlberg; Austria; pressure propagation
This Thesis puts its focus on the physics of neutron stars and its description with methods of numerical relativity. In the first step, a new numerical framework the Whisky2D code will be developed, which solves the relativistic equations of hydrodynamics in axisymmetry. Therefore we consider an improved formulation of the conserved form of these equations. The second part will use the new code to investigate the critical behaviour of two colliding neutron stars. Considering the analogy to phase transitions in statistical physics, we will investigate the evolution of the entropy of the neutron stars during the whole process. A better understanding of the evolution of thermodynamical quantities, like the entropy in critical process, should provide deeper understanding of thermodynamics in relativity. More specifically, we have written the Whisky2D code, which solves the general-relativistic hydrodynamics equations in a flux-conservative form and in cylindrical coordinates. This of course brings in 1/r singular terms, where r is the radial cylindrical coordinate, which must be dealt with appropriately. In the above-referenced works, the flux operator is expanded and the 1/r terms, not containing derivatives, are moved to the right-hand-side of the equation (the source term), so that the left hand side assumes a form identical to the one of the three-dimensional (3D) Cartesian formulation. We call this the standard formulation. Another possibility is not to split the flux operator and to redefine the conserved variables, via a multiplication by r. We call this the new formulation. The new equations are solved with the same methods as in the Cartesian case. From a mathematical point of view, one would not expect differences between the two ways of writing the differential operator, but, of course, a difference is present at the numerical level. Our tests show that the new formulation yields results with a global truncation error which is one or more orders of magnitude smaller than those of alternative and commonly used formulations. The second part of the Thesis uses the new code for investigations of critical phenomena in general relativity. In particular, we consider the head-on-collision of two neutron stars in a region of the parameter space where two final states a new stable neutron star or a black hole, lay close to each other. In 1993, Choptuik considered one-parameter families of solutions, S[P], of the Einstein-Klein-Gordon equations for a massless scalar field in spherical symmetry, such that for every P > P⋆, S[P] contains a black hole and for every P < P⋆, S[P] is a solution not containing singularities. He studied numerically the behavior of S[P] as P → P⋆ and found that the critical solution, S[P⋆], is universal, in the sense that it is approached by all nearly-critical solutions regardless of the particular family of initial data considered. All these phenomena have the common property that, as P approaches P⋆, S[P] approaches a universal solution S[P⋆] and that all the physical quantities of S[P] depend only on |P − P⋆|. The first study of critical phenomena concerning the head-on collision of NSs was carried out by Jin and Suen in 2007. In particular, they considered a series of families of equal-mass NSs, modeled with an ideal-gas EOS, boosted towards each other and varied the mass of the stars, their separation, velocity and the polytropic index in the EOS. In this way they could observe a critical phenomenon of type I near the threshold of black-hole formation, with the putative solution being a nonlinearly oscillating star. In a successive work, they performed similar simulations but considering the head-on collision of Gaussian distributions of matter. Also in this case they found the appearance of type-I critical behaviour, but also performed a perturbative analysis of the initial distributions of matter and of the merged object. Because of the considerable difference found in the eigenfrequencies in the two cases, they concluded that the critical solution does not represent a system near equilibrium and in particular not a perturbed Tolmann-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) solution. In this Thesis we study the dynamics of the head-on collision of two equal-mass NSs using a setup which is as similar as possible to the one considered above. While we confirm that the merged object exhibits a type-I critical behaviour, we also argue against the conclusion that the critical solution cannot be described in terms of equilibrium solution. Indeed, we show that, in analogy with what is found in, the critical solution is effectively a perturbed unstable solution of the TOV equations. Our analysis also considers fine-structure of the scaling relation of type-I critical phenomena and we show that it exhibits oscillations in a similar way to the one studied in the context of scalar-field critical collapse.
Sediment records of three European lakes were investigated in order to reconstruct the regional climate development during the Lateglacial and Holocene, to investigate the response of local ecosystems to climatic fluctuations and human impact and to relate regional peculiarities of past climate development to climatic changes on a larger spatial scale. The Lake Hańcza (NE Poland) sediment record was studied with a focus on reconstructing the early Holocene climate development and identifying possible differences to Western Europe. Following the initial Holocene climatic improvement, a further climatic improvement occurred between 10 000 and 9000 cal. a BP. Apparently, relatively cold and dry climate conditions persisted in NE Poland during the first ca. 1500 years of the Holocene, most likely due to a specific regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Prevailing anticyclonic circulation linked to a high-pressure cell above the remaining Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) might have blocked the eastward propagation of warm and moist Westerlies and thus attenuated the early Holocene climatic amelioration in this region until the final decay of the SIS, a pattern different from climate development in Western Europe. The Lateglacial sediment record of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was investigated in order to study the regional climate development and the environmental response to rapid climatic fluctuations. While the temperature rise and environmental response at the onset of the Holocene took place quasi-synchronously, major leads and lags in proxy responses characterize the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial. In particular, the spread of coniferous woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the initial Lateglacial warming by ca. 500–750 years. Major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas took place synchronously with a change in vegetation, while the increase of detrital matter flux was delayed by about 150–300 years. Complex proxy responses are also detected for short-term Lateglacial climatic fluctuations. In summary, periods of abrupt climatic changes are characterized by complex and temporally variable proxy responses, mainly controlled by ecosystem inertia and the environmental preconditions. A second study on the Lake Mondsee sediment record focused on two small-scale climate deteriorations around 8200 and 9100 cal. a BP, which have been triggered by freshwater discharges to the North Atlantic, causing a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Combining microscopic varve counting and AMS 14C dating yielded a precise duration estimate (ca. 150 years) and absolute dating of the 8.2 ka cold event, both being in good agreement with results from other palaeoclimate records. Moreover, a sudden temperature overshoot after the 8.2 ka cold event was identified, also seen in other proxy records around the North Atlantic. This was most likely caused by enhanced resumption of the MOC, which also initiated substantial shifts of oceanic and atmospheric front systems. Although there is also evidence from other proxy records for pronounced recovery of the MOC and atmospheric circulation changes after the 9.1 ka cold event, no temperature overshoot is seen in the Lake Mondsee record, indicating the complex behaviour of the global climate system. The Holocene sediment record of Lake Iseo (northern Italy) was studied to shed light on regional earthquake activity and the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic impact on catchment erosion and detrital flux into the lake. Frequent small-scale detrital layers within the sediments reflect allochthonous sediment supply by extreme surface runoff events. During the early to mid-Holocene, increased detrital flux coincides with periods of cold and wet climate conditions, thus apparently being mainly controlled by climate variability. In contrast, intervals of high detrital flux during the late Holocene partly also correlate with phases of increased human impact, reflecting the complex influences on catchment erosion processes. Five large-scale event layers within the sediments, which are composed of mass-wasting deposits and turbidites, are supposed to have been triggered by strong local earthquakes. While the uppermost of these event layers is assigned to a documented adjacent earthquake in AD 1222, the four other layers are supposed to be related to previously undocumented prehistorical earthquakes.
Dryland vulnerability : typical patterns and dynamics in support of vulnerability reduction efforts
(2011)
The pronounced constraints on ecosystem functioning and human livelihoods in drylands are frequently exacerbated by natural and socio-economic stresses, including weather extremes and inequitable trade conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the relation between these stresses and the socio-ecological systems is important for advancing dryland development. The concept of vulnerability as applied in this dissertation describes this relation as encompassing the exposure to climate, market and other stresses as well as the sensitivity of the systems to these stresses and their capacity to adapt. With regard to the interest in improving environmental and living conditions in drylands, this dissertation aims at a meaningful generalisation of heterogeneous vulnerability situations. A pattern recognition approach based on clustering revealed typical vulnerability-creating mechanisms at global and local scales. One study presents the first analysis of dryland vulnerability with global coverage at a sub-national resolution. The cluster analysis resulted in seven typical patterns of vulnerability according to quantitative indication of poverty, water stress, soil degradation, natural agro-constraints and isolation. Independent case studies served to validate the identified patterns and to prove the transferability of vulnerability-reducing approaches. Due to their worldwide coverage, the global results allow the evaluation of a specific system’s vulnerability in its wider context, even in poorly-documented areas. Moreover, climate vulnerability of smallholders was investigated with regard to their food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Four typical groups of households were identified in this local dryland context using indicators for harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education and non-agricultural income. An elaborate validation relying on independently acquired information demonstrated the clear correlation between weather-related damages and the identified clusters. It also showed that household-specific causes of vulnerability were consistent with the mechanisms implied by the corresponding patterns. The synthesis of the local study provides valuable insights into the tailoring of interventions that reflect the heterogeneity within the social group of smallholders. The conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns were summarised in five methodological steps. They aim to motivate and to facilitate the application of the selected pattern recognition approach in future vulnerability analyses. The five steps outline the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. The precise definition of the hypotheses is essential to appropriately quantify the basic processes as well as to consistently interpret, validate and rank the clusters. In particular, the five steps reflect scale-dependent opportunities, such as the outcome-oriented aspect of validation in the local study. Furthermore, the clusters identified in Northeast Brazil were assessed in the light of important endogenous processes in the smallholder systems which dominate this region. In order to capture these processes, a qualitative dynamic model was developed using generalised rules of labour allocation, yield extraction, budget constitution and the dynamics of natural and technological resources. The model resulted in a cyclic trajectory encompassing four states with differing degree of criticality. The joint assessment revealed aggravating conditions in major parts of the study region due to the overuse of natural resources and the potential for impoverishment. The changes in vulnerability-creating mechanisms identified in Northeast Brazil are well-suited to informing local adjustments to large-scale intervention programmes, such as “Avança Brasil”. Overall, the categorisation of a limited number of typical patterns and dynamics presents an efficient approach to improving our understanding of dryland vulnerability. Appropriate decision-making for sustainable dryland development through vulnerability reduction can be significantly enhanced by pattern-specific entry points combined with insights into changing hotspots of vulnerability and the transferability of successful adaptation strategies.
The present thesis introduces an iterative expert-based Bayesian approach for assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the 2030 German new vehicle fleet and quantifying the impacts of their main drivers. A first set of expert interviews has been carried out in order to identify technologies which may help to lower car GHG emissions and to quantify their emission reduction potentials. Moreover, experts were asked for their probability assessments that the different technologies will be widely adopted, as well as for important prerequisites that could foster or hamper their adoption. Drawing on the results of these expert interviews, a Bayesian Belief Network has been built which explicitly models three vehicle types: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (which include mild and full Hybrid Electric Vehicles), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, and Battery Electric Vehicles. The conditional dependencies of twelve central variables within the BBN - battery energy, fuel and electricity consumption, relative costs, and sales shares of the vehicle types - have been quantified by experts from German car manufacturers in a second series of interviews. For each of the seven second-round interviews, an expert's individually specified BBN results. The BBN have been run for different hypothetical 2030 scenarios which differ, e.g., in regard to battery development, regulation, and fuel and electricity GHG intensities. The present thesis delivers results both in regard to the subject of the investigation and in regard to its method. On the subject level, it has been found that the different experts expect 2030 German new car fleet emission to be at 50 to 65% of 2008 new fleet emissions under the baseline scenario. They can be further reduced to 40 to 50% of the emissions of the 2008 fleet though a combination of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, a larger share of biofuels in the fuel mix, and a stricter regulation of car CO$_2$ emissions in the European Union. Technically, 2030 German new car fleet GHG emissions can be reduced to a minimum of 18 to 44% of 2008 emissions, a development which can not be triggered by any combination of measures modeled in the BBN alone but needs further commitment. Out of a wealth of existing BBN, few have been specified by individual experts through elicitation, and to my knowledge, none of them has been employed for analyzing perspectives for the future. On the level of methods, this work shows that expert-based BBN are a valuable tool for making experts' expectations for the future explicit and amenable to the analysis of different hypothetical scenarios. BBN can also be employed for quantifying the impacts of main drivers. They have been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for iterative stakeholder-based science approaches.