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Many widely used observational data sets are comprised of several overlapping instrument records. While data inter-calibration techniques often yield continuous and reliable data for trend analysis, less attention is generally paid to maintaining higher-order statistics such as variance and autocorrelation. A growing body of work uses these metrics to quantify the stability or resilience of a system under study and potentially to anticipate an approaching critical transition in the system. Exploring the degree to which changes in resilience indicators such as the variance or autocorrelation can be attributed to non-stationary characteristics of the measurement process – rather than actual changes in the dynamical properties of the system – is important in this context. In this work we use both synthetic and empirical data to explore how changes in the noise structure of a data set are propagated into the commonly used resilience metrics lag-one autocorrelation and variance. We focus on examples from remotely sensed vegetation indicators such as vegetation optical depth and the normalized difference vegetation index from different satellite sources. We find that time series resulting from mixing signals from sensors with varied uncertainties and covering overlapping time spans can lead to biases in inferred resilience changes. These biases are typically more pronounced when resilience metrics are aggregated (for example, by land-cover type or region), whereas estimates for individual time series remain reliable at reasonable sensor signal-to-noise ratios. Our work provides guidelines for the treatment and aggregation of multi-instrument data in studies of critical transitions and resilience.
Both horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios and the spatial autocorrelation method (SPAC) have proven to be valuable tools to gain insight into local site effects by ambient noise measurements. Here, the two methods are employed to assess the subsurface velocity structure at the Piano delle Concazze area on Mt Etna. Volcanic tremor records from an array of 26 broadband seismometers is processed and a strong variability of H/V ratios during periods of increased volcanic activity is found. From the spatial distribution of H/V peak frequencies, a geologic structure in the north-east of Piano delle Concazze is imaged which is interpreted as the Ellittico caldera rim. The method is extended to include both velocity data from the broadband stations and distributed acoustic sensing data from a co-located 1.5 km long fibre optic cable. High maximum amplitude values of the resulting ratios along the trajectory of the cable coincide with known faults. The outcome also indicates previously unmapped parts of a fault. The geologic interpretation is in good agreement with inversion results from magnetic survey data. Using the neighborhood algorithm, spatial autocorrelation curves obtained from the modified SPAC are inverted alone and jointly with the H/V peak frequencies for 1D shear wave velocity profiles. The obtained models are largely consistent with published models and were able to validate the results from the fibre optic cable.
The Andean Cordillera is a mountain range located at the western South American margin and is part of the Eastern- Circum-Pacific orogenic Belt. The ~7000 km long mountain range is one of the longest on Earth and hosts the second largest orogenic plateau in the world, the Altiplano-Puna plateau. The Andes are known as a non-collisional subduction-type orogen which developed as a result of the interaction between the subducted oceanic Nazca plate and the South American continental plate. The different Andean segments exhibit along-strike variations of morphotectonic provinces characterized by different elevations, volcanic activity, deformation styles, crustal thickness, shortening magnitude and oceanic plate geometry. Most of the present-day elevation can be explained by crustal shortening in the last ~50 Ma, with the shortening magnitude decreasing from ~300 km in the central (15°S-30°S) segment to less than half that in the southern part (30°S-40°S). Several factors were proposed that might control the magnitude and acceleration of shortening of the Central Andes in the last 15 Ma. One important factor is likely the slab geometry. At 27-33°S, the slab dips horizontally at ~100 km depth due to the subduction of the buoyant Juan Fernandez Ridge, forming the Pampean flat-slab. This horizontal subduction is thought to influence the thermo-mechanical state of the Sierras Pampeanas foreland, for instance, by strengthening the lithosphere and promoting the thick-skinned propagation of deformation to the east, resulting in the uplift of the Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks. The flat-slab has migrated southwards from the Altiplano latitude at ~30 Ma to its present-day position and the processes and consequences associated to its passage on the contemporaneous acceleration of the shortening rate in Central Andes remain unclear. Although the passage of the flat-slab could offer an explanation to the acceleration of the shortening, the timing does not explain the two pulses of shortening at about 15 Ma and 4 Ma that are suggested from geological observations. I hypothesize that deformation in the Central Andes is controlled by a complex interaction between the subduction dynamics of the Nazca plate and the dynamic strengthening and weakening of the South American plate due to several upper plate processes. To test this hypothesis, a detailed investigation into the role of the flat-slab, the structural inheritance of the continental plate, and the subduction dynamics in the Andes is needed. Therefore, I have built two classes of numerical thermo-mechanical models: (i) The first class of models are a series of generic E-W-oriented high-resolution 2D subduction models thatinclude flat subduction in order to investigate the role of the subduction dynamics on the temporal variability of the shortening rate in the Central Andes at Altiplano latitudes (~21°S). The shortening rate from the models was then validated with the observed tectonic shortening rate in the Central Andes. (ii) The second class of models are a series of 3D data-driven models of the present-day Pampean flat-slab configuration and the Sierras Pampeanas (26-42°S). The models aim to investigate the relative contribution of the present-day flat subduction and inherited structures in the continental lithosphere on the strain localization. Both model classes were built using the advanced finite element geodynamic code ASPECT.
The first main finding of this work is to suggest that the temporal variability of shortening in the Central Andes is primarily controlled by the subduction dynamics of the Nazca plate while it penetrates into the mantle transition zone. These dynamics depends on the westward velocity of the South American plate that provides the main crustal shortening force to the Andes and forces the trench to retreat. When the subducting plate reaches the lower mantle, it buckles on it-self until the forced trench retreat causes the slab to steepen in the upper mantle in contrast with the classical slab-anchoring model. The steepening of the slab hinders the trench causing it to resist the advancing South American plate, resulting in the pulsatile shortening. This buckling and steepening subduction regime could have been initiated because of the overall decrease in the westwards velocity of the South American plate. In addition, the passage of the flat-slab is required to promote the shortening of the continental plate because flat subduction scrapes the mantle lithosphere, thus weakening the continental plate. This process contributes to the efficient shortening when the trench is hindered, followed by mantle lithosphere delamination at ~20 Ma. Finally, the underthrusting of the Brazilian cratonic shield beneath the orogen occurs at ~11 Ma due to the mechanical weakening of the thick sediments covered the shield margin, and due to the decreasing resistance of the weakened lithosphere of the orogen.
The second main finding of this work is to suggest that the cold flat-slab strengthens the overriding continental lithosphere and prevents strain localization. Therefore, the deformation is transmitted to the eastern front of the flat-slab segment by the shear stress operating at the subduction interface, thus the flat-slab acts like an indenter that “bulldozes” the mantle-keel of the continental lithosphere. The offset in the propagation of deformation to the east between the flat and steeper slab segments in the south causes the formation of a transpressive dextral shear zone. Here, inherited faults of past tectonic events are reactivated and further localize the deformation in an en-echelon strike-slip shear zone, through a mechanism that I refer to as “flat-slab conveyor”. Specifically, the shallowing of the flat-slab causes the lateral deformation, which explains the timing of multiple geological events preceding the arrival of the flat-slab at 33°S. These include the onset of the compression and of the transition between thin to thick-skinned deformation styles resulting from the crustal contraction of the crust in the Sierras Pampeanas some 10 and 6 Myr before the Juan Fernandez Ridge collision at that latitude, respectively.
Earthquake modeling is the key to a profound understanding of a rupture. Its kinematics or dynamics are derived from advanced rupture models that allow, for example, to reconstruct the direction and velocity of the rupture front or the evolving slip distribution behind the rupture front. Such models are often parameterized by a lattice of interacting sub-faults with many degrees of freedom, where, for example, the time history of the slip and rake on each sub-fault are inverted. To avoid overfitting or other numerical instabilities during a finite-fault estimation, most models are stabilized by geometric rather than physical constraints such as smoothing.
As a basis for the inversion approach of this study, we build on a new pseudo-dynamic rupture model (PDR) with only a few free parameters and a simple geometry as a physics-based solution of an earthquake rupture. The PDR derives the instantaneous slip from a given stress drop on the fault plane, with boundary conditions on the developing crack surface guaranteed at all times via a boundary element approach. As a side product, the source time function on each point on the rupture plane is not constraint and develops by itself without additional parametrization. The code was made publicly available as part of the Pyrocko and Grond Python packages. The approach was compared with conventional modeling for different earthquakes. For example, for the Mw 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, the effects of geometric changes in the rupture surface on the slip and slip rate distributions could be reproduced by simply projecting stress vectors. For the Mw 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, strike-slip earthquake, we also modelled rupture propagation using the 2D Eikonal equation and assuming a linear relationship between rupture and shear wave velocity. This allowed us to give a deeper and faster propagating rupture front and the resulting upward refraction as a new possible explanation for the apparent supershear observed at the Earth's surface.
The thesis investigates three aspects of earthquake inversion using PDR: (1) to test whether implementing a simplified rupture model with few parameters into a probabilistic Bayesian scheme without constraining geometric parameters is feasible, and whether this leads to fast and robust results that can be used for subsequent fast information systems (e.g., ground motion predictions). (2) To investigate whether combining broadband and strong-motion seismic records together with near-field ground deformation data improves the reliability of estimated rupture models in a Bayesian inversion. (3) To investigate whether a complex rupture can be represented by the inversion of multiple PDR sources and for what type of earthquakes this is recommended.
I developed the PDR inversion approach and applied the joint data inversions to two seismic sequences in different tectonic settings. Using multiple frequency bands and a multiple source inversion approach, I captured the multi-modal behaviour of the Mw 8.2 2021 South Sandwich subduction earthquake with a large, curved and slow rupturing shallow earthquake bounded by two faster and deeper smaller events. I could cross-validate the results with other methods, i.e., P-wave energy back-projection, a clustering analysis of aftershocks and a simple tsunami forward model.
The joint analysis of ground deformation and seismic data within a multiple source inversion also shed light on an earthquake triplet, which occurred in July 2022 in SE Iran. From the inversion and aftershock relocalization, I found indications for a vertical separation between the shallower mainshocks within the sedimentary cover and deeper aftershocks at the sediment-basement interface. The vertical offset could be caused by the ductile response of the evident salt layer to stress perturbations from the mainshocks.
The applications highlight the versatility of the simple PDR in probabilistic seismic source inversion capturing features of rather different, complex earthquakes. Limitations, as the evident focus on the major slip patches of the rupture are discussed as well as differences to other finite fault modeling methods.