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Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active landforms in the Arctic; their number has increased significantly over the past decades. While processes initiating discrete RTSs are well identified, the major terrain controls on the development of coastal RTSs at a regional scale are not yet defined. Our research reveals the main geomorphic factors that determine the development of RTSs along a 238km segment of the Yukon Coast, Canada. We (1) show the current extent of RTSs, (2) ascertain the factors controlling their activity and initiation, and (3) explain the spatial differences in the density and areal coverage of RTSs. We mapped and classified 287 RTSs using high-resolution satellite images acquired in 2011. We highlighted the main terrain controls over their development using univariate regression trees model. Coastal geomorphology influenced both the activity and initiation of RTSs: active RTSs and RTSs initiated after 1972 occurred primarily on terrains with slope angles greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. The density and areal coverage of RTSs were constrained by the volume and thickness of massive ice bodies. Differences in rates of coastal change along the coast did not affect the model. We infer that rates of coastal change averaged over a 39year period are unable to reflect the complex relationship between RTSs and coastline dynamics. We emphasize the need for large-scale studies of RTSs to evaluate their impact on the ecosystem and to measure their contribution to the global carbon budget. Plain Language Summary Retrogressive thaw slumps, henceforth slumps are a type of landslides that occur when permafrost thaws. Slumps are active landforms: they develop quickly and extend over several hectares. Satellite imagery allows to map such slumps over large areas. Our research shows where slumps develop along a 238 km segment of the Yukon Coast in Canada and explains which environments are most suitable for slump occurrence. We found that active and newly developed slumps were triggered where coastal slopes were greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. We explain that coastal erosion influences the development of slumps by modifying coastal slopes. We found that the highest density of slumps as well as the largest slumps occurred on terrains with high amounts of ice bodies in the ground. This study provides tools to better identify areas in the Arctic that are prone to slump development.
Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last similar to 29 cal ka
(2017)
We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last similar to 29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO2 (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOCBr), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, delta(18) OCarb) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the most important climate systems, whose variability and driving mechanisms are of broad interest for academic and societal communities. Here, we present a well-dated high-resolution pollen analysis from a 4.82-m long sediment core taken from Basomtso, in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), which depicts the regional climate changes of the past millennium. Our results show that subalpine coniferous forest was dominant around Basomtso from ca. 867 to ca. 750 cal. yr BP, indicating a warm and semi-humid climate. The timberline in the study area significantly decreased from ca. 750 to ca.100 cal. yr BP, and a cold climate, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed. Since ca. 100 cal. yr BP, the vegetation type changed to forest-meadow with rising temperatures and moisture. Ordination analysis reveals that the migration of vegetation was dominated by regional temperatures and then by moisture. Further comparisons between the Basomtso pollen record and the regional temperature reconstructions underscore the relevance of the Basomtso record from the southeastern TP for regional and global climatologies. Our pollen based moisture reconstruction demonstrates the strong multicentennial-scale link to ISM variability, providing solid evidence for the increase of monsoonal strengths over the past four centuries. Spectral analysis indicates the potential influence of solar forcing. However, a closer relationship has been observed between multicentennial ISM variations and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs), suggesting that the variations in monsoonal precipitation over the southeastern TP are probably driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole on the multicentennial scale. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of past climate variables is a standard palaeoclimatic approach. Despite knowing that the spatial extent of the calibration-set affects the reconstruction result, guidance is lacking as to how to determine a suitable spatial extent of the pollen-climate calibration-set. In this study, past mean annual precipitation (P-ann) during the Holocene (since 11.5 cal ka BP) is reconstructed repeatedly for pollen records from Qinghai Lake (36.7 degrees N, 100.5 degrees E; north-east Tibetan Plateau), Gonghai Lake (38.9 degrees N, 112.2 degrees E; north China) and Sihailongwan Lake (42.3 degrees N, 126.6 degrees E; north-east China) using calibration-sets of varying spatial extents extracted from the modern pollen dataset of China and Mongolia (2559 sampling sites and 168 pollen taxa in total). Results indicate that the spatial extent of the calibration-set has a strong impact on model performance, analogue quality and reconstruction diagnostics (absolute value, range, trend, optimum). Generally, these effects are stronger with the modern analogue technique (MAT) than with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). With respect to fossil spectra from northern China, the spatial extent of calibration-sets should be restricted to radii between ca. 1000 and 1500 km because small-scale calibration-sets (<800 km radius) will likely fail to include enough spatial variation in the modern pollen assemblages to reflect the temporal range shifts during the Holocene, while too broad a scale calibration-set (>1500 km radius) will include taxa with very different pollen-climate relationships. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.