000 Informatik, Informationswissenschaft, allgemeine Werke
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In discrete manufacturing, the knowledge about causal relationships makes it possible to avoid unforeseen production downtimes by identifying their root causes. Learning causal structures from real-world settings remains challenging due to high-dimensional data, a mix of discrete and continuous variables, and requirements for preprocessing log data under the causal perspective. In our work, we address these challenges proposing a process for causal reasoning based on raw machine log data from production monitoring. Within this process, we define a set of transformation rules to extract independent and identically distributed observations. Further, we incorporate a variable selection step to handle high-dimensionality and a discretization step to include continuous variables. We enrich a commonly used causal structure learning algorithm with domain-related orientation rules, which provides a basis for causal reasoning. We demonstrate the process on a real-world dataset from a globally operating precision mechanical engineering company. The dataset contains over 40 million log data entries from production monitoring of a single machine. In this context, we determine the causal structures embedded in operational processes. Further, we examine causal effects to support machine operators in avoiding unforeseen production stops, i.e., by detaining machine operators from drawing false conclusions on impacting factors of unforeseen production stops based on experience.
In many businesses, firms are selling different types of products, which share mutual substitution effects in demand. To compute effective pricing strategies is challenging as the sales probabilities of each of a firm's products can also be affected by the prices of potential substitutes. In this paper, we analyze stochastic dynamic multi-product pricing models for the sale of perishable goods. To circumvent the limitations of time-consuming optimal solutions for highly complex models, we propose different relaxation techniques, which allow to reduce the size of critical model components, such as the state space, the action space, or the set of potential sales events. Our heuristics are able to decrease the size of those components by forming corresponding clusters and using subsets of representative elements. Using numerical examples, we verify that our heuristics make it possible to dramatically reduce the computation time while still obtaining close-to-optimal expected profits. Further, we show that our heuristics are (i) flexible, (ii) scalable, and (iii) can be arbitrarily combined in a mutually supportive way.
Currently available wearables are usually based on a single sensor node with integrated capabilities for classifying different activities. The next generation of cooperative wearables could be able to identify not only activities, but also to evaluate them qualitatively using the data of several sensor nodes attached to the body, to provide detailed feedback for the improvement of the execution. Especially within the application domains of sports and health-care, such immediate feedback to the execution of body movements is crucial for (re-) learning and improving motor skills. To enable such systems for a broad range of activities, generalized approaches for human motion assessment within sensor networks are required. In this paper, we present a generalized trainable activity assessment chain (AAC) for the online assessment of periodic human activity within a wireless body area network. AAC evaluates the execution of separate movements of a prior trained activity on a fine-grained quality scale. We connect qualitative assessment with human knowledge by projecting the AAC on the hierarchical decomposition of motion performed by the human body as well as establishing the assessment on a kinematic evaluation of biomechanically distinct motion fragments. We evaluate AAC in a real-world setting and show that AAC successfully delimits the movements of correctly performed activity from faulty executions and provides detailed reasons for the activity assessment.
The demand for peer-to-peer ridesharing services increased over the last years rapidly. To cost-efficiently dispatch orders and communicate accurate pick-up times is challenging as the current location of each available driver is not exactly known since observed locations can be outdated for several seconds. The developed trajectory visualization tool enables transportation network companies to analyze dispatch processes and determine the causes of unexpected delays. As dispatching algorithms are based on the accuracy of arrival time predictions, we account for factors like noise, sample rate, technical and economic limitations as well as the duration of the entire process as they have an impact on the accuracy of spatio-temporal data. To improve dispatching strategies, we propose a prediction approach that provides a probability distribution for a driver’s future locations based on patterns observed in past trajectories. We demonstrate the capabilities of our prediction results to ( i) avoid critical delays, (ii) to estimate waiting times with higher confidence, and (iii) to enable risk considerations in dispatching strategies.
Most sales applications are characterized by competition and limited demand information. For successful pricing strategies, frequent price adjustments as well as anticipation of market dynamics are crucial. Both effects are challenging as competitive markets are complex and computations of optimized pricing adjustments can be time-consuming. We analyze stochastic dynamic pricing models under oligopoly competition for the sale of perishable goods. To circumvent the curse of dimensionality, we propose a heuristic approach to efficiently compute price adjustments. To demonstrate our strategy’s applicability even if the number of competitors is large and their strategies are unknown, we consider different competitive settings in which competitors frequently and strategically adjust their prices. For all settings, we verify that our heuristic strategy yields promising results. We compare the performance of our heuristic against upper bounds, which are obtained by optimal strategies that take advantage of perfect price anticipations. We find that price adjustment frequencies can have a larger impact on expected profits than price anticipations. Finally, our approach has been applied on Amazon for the sale of used books. We have used a seller’s historical market data to calibrate our model. Sales results show that our data-driven strategy outperforms the rule-based strategy of an experienced seller by a profit increase of more than 20%.
Merchants on modern e-commerce platforms face a highly competitive environment. They compete against each other using automated dynamic pricing and ordering strategies. Successfully managing both inventory levels as well as offer prices is a challenging task as (i) demand is uncertain, (ii) competitors strategically interact, and (iii) optimized pricing and ordering decisions are mutually dependent. We show how to derive optimized data-driven pricing and ordering strategies which are based on demand learning techniques and efficient dynamic optimization models. We verify the superior performance of our self-adaptive strategies by comparing them to different rule-based as well as data-driven strategies in duopoly and oligopoly settings. Further, to study and to optimize joint dynamic ordering and pricing strategies on online marketplaces, we built an interactive simulation platform. To be both flexible and scalable, the platform has a microservice-based architecture and allows handling dozens of competing merchants and streams of consumers with configurable characteristics.
Online markets have become highly dynamic and competitive. Many sellers use automated data-driven strategies to estimate demand and to update prices frequently. Further, notification services offered by marketplaces allow to continuously track markets and to react to competitors’ price adjustments instantaneously. To derive successful automated repricing strategies is challenging as competitors’ strategies are typically not known. In this paper, we analyze automated repricing strategies with data-driven price anticipations under duopoly competition. In addition, we account for reference price effects in demand, which are affected by the price adjustments of both competitors. We show how to derive optimized self-adaptive pricing strategies that anticipate price reactions of the competitor and take the evolution of the reference price into account. We verify that the results of our adaptive learning strategy tend to optimal solutions, which can be derived for scenarios with full information. Finally, we analyze the case in which our learning strategy is played against itself. We find that our self-adaptive strategies can be used to approximate equilibria in mixed strategies.