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ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
The NGC 346 young stellar system and associated N66 giant H ii region in the Small Magellanic Cloud are the nearest example of a massive star-forming event in a low metallicity (Z approximate to 0.2Z (circle dot)) galaxy. With an age of less than or similar to 3 Myr this system provides a unique opportunity to study relationships between massive stars and their associated H ii region. Using archival data, we derive a total H alpha luminosity of L(H alpha) = 4.1 x 10(38) erg s(-1) corresponding to an H-photoionization rate of 3 x 10(50) s(-1). A comparison with a predicted stellar ionization rate derived from the more than 50 known O-stars in NGC 346, including massive stars recently classified from Hubble Space Telescope far-ultraviolet (FUV) spectra, indicates an approximate ionization balance. Spectra obtained with SALT suggest the ionization structure of N66 could be consistent with some leakage of ionizing photons. Due to the low metallicity, the FUV luminosity from NGC 346 is not confined to the interstellar cloud associated with N66. Ionization extends through much of the spatial extent of the N66 cloud complex, and most of the cloud mass is not ionized. The stellar mass estimated from nebular L(H alpha) appears to be lower than masses derived from the census of resolved stars which may indicate a disconnect between the formation of high and low mass stars in this region. We briefly discuss implications of the properties of N66 for studies of star formation and stellar feedback in low metallicity environments.
Lyman limit systems (LLSs) trace the low-density circumgalactic medium and the most dense regions of the intergalactic medium, so their number density and evolution at high-redshift, just after reionization, are important to constrain. We present a survey for LLSs at high redshifts, z(LLS) = 3.5-5.4, in the homogeneous data set of 153 optical quasar spectra at z similar to 5 from the Giant Gemini GMOS survey. Our analysis includes detailed investigation of survey biases using mock spectra which provide important corrections to the raw measurements. We estimate the incidence of LLSs per unit redshift at z approximate to 4.4 to be l(z) = 2.6 +/- 0.4. Combining our results with previous surveys at z(LLS) < 4, the best-fit power-law evolution is l(z) = l(*)[(1 + z)/4](alpha) with l* = 1.46 +/- 0.11 and alpha = 1.70 +/- 0.22 (68 per cent confidence intervals). Despite hints in previous z(LLS) < 4 results, there is no indication for a deviation from this single power-law soon after reionization. Finally, we integrate our new results with previous surveys of the intergalactic and circumgalactic media to constrain the hydrogen column density distribution function, f(N-HI, X), over 10 orders ofmagnitude. The data at z similar to 5 are not well-described by the f(N-HI, X) model previously reported for z similar to 2-3 (after re-scaling) and a 7-pivot model fitting the full z similar to 2-5 data set is statistically unacceptable. We conclude that there is significant evolution in the shape of f(N-HI, X) over this similar to 2-billion-year period.
NGTS-5b
(2019)
Context. Planetary population analysis gives us insight into formation and evolution processes. For short-period planets, the sub-Jovian desert has been discussed in recent years with regard to the planet population in the mass/period and radius/period parameter space without taking stellar parameters into account. The Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS) is optimised for detecting planets in this regime, which allows for further analysis of the sub-Jovian desert. Aims. With high-precision photometric surveys (e.g. with NGTS and TESS), which aim to detect short period planets especially around M/K-type host stars, stellar parameters need to be accounted for when empirical data are compared to model predictions. Presenting a newly discovered planet at the boundary of the sub-Jovian desert, we analyse its bulk properties and use it to show the properties of exoplanets that border the sub-Jovian desert. Methods. Using NGTS light curve and spectroscopic follow-up observations, we confirm the planetary nature of planet NGTS-5b and determine its mass. Using exoplanet archives, we set the planet in context with other discoveries. Results. NGTS-5b is a short-period planet with an orbital period of 3.3569866 +/- 0.0000026 days. With a mass of 0.229 +/- 0.037 M-Jup and a radius of 1.136 +/- 0.023 R-Jup, it is highly inflated. Its mass places it at the upper boundary of the sub-Jovian desert. Because the host is a K2 dwarf, we need to account for the stellar parameters when NGTS-5b is analysed with regard to planet populations. Conclusions. With red-sensitive surveys (e.g. with NGTS and TESS), we expect many more planets around late-type stars to be detected. An empirical analysis of the sub-Jovian desert should therefore take stellar parameters into account.
Objective: The aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis are (i) to determine the impact of school-based interventions on objectively measured physical activity among adolescents and (ii) to examine accelerometer methods and decision rule reporting in previous interventions. Methods: A systematic search was performed to identify randomized controlled trials targeting adolescents (age: >= 10 years), conducted in the school setting, and reporting objectively measured physical activity. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to determine the pooled effects of previous interventions on total and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Potential moderators of intervention effects were also explored. Results: Thirteen articles met the inclusion criteria, and twelve were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled effects were small and non-significant for both total physical activity (standardized mean difference = 0.02 [95% confidence interval = -0.13 to 0.18]) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (standardized mean difference = 0.24 [95% confidence interval = -0.08 to 0.56]). Sample age and accelerometer compliance were significant moderators for total physical activity, with a younger sample and higher compliance associated with larger effects. Conclusion: Previous school-based physical activity interventions targeting adolescents have been largely unsuccessful, particularly for older adolescents. There is a need for more high-quality research using objective monitoring in this population. Future interventions should comply with best-practice recommendations regarding physical activity monitoring protocols.
We perform a statistical study calculating electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave amplitudes based off in situ plasma measurements taken by the Van Allen Probes’ (1.1–5.8 Re) Helium, Oxygen, Proton, Electron (HOPE) instrument. Calculated wave amplitudes are compared to EMIC waves observed by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science on board the Van Allen Probes during the same period. The survey covers a 22-month period (1 November 2012 to 31 August 2014), a full Van Allen Probe magnetic local time (MLT) precession. The linear theory proxy was used to identify EMIC wave events with plasma conditions favorable for EMIC wave excitation. Two hundred and thirty-two EMIC wave events (103 H+-band and 129 He+-band) were selected for this comparison. Nearly all events selected are observed beyond L = 4. Results show that calculated wave amplitudes exclusively using the in situ HOPE measurements produce amplitudes too low compared to the observed EMIC wave amplitudes. Hot proton anisotropy (Ahp) distributions are asymmetric in MLT within the inner (L < 7) magnetosphere with peak (minimum) Ahp, ∼0.81 to 1.00 (∼0.62), observed in the dawn (dusk), 0000 < MLT ≤ 1200 (1200 < MLT ≤ 2400), sectors. Measurements of Ahp are found to decrease in the presence of EMIC wave activity. Ahp amplification factors are determined and vary with respect to EMIC wave-band and MLT. He+-band events generally require double (quadruple) the measured Ahp for the dawn (dusk) sector to reproduce the observed EMIC wave amplitudes.