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Abstract. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is a transition zone where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) propagates westward from the Anatolian Plate to the Aegean Sea Plate. The area is of interest in the context of seismic hazard of Istanbul, a metropolitan area with about 15 million inhabitants. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the crustal heterogeneities is still missing. To assess if and how crustal heterogeneities are related to the NAFZ segmentation below the Sea of Marmara, we develop new crustal-scale 3-D density models which integrate geological and seismological data and that are additionally constrained by 3-D gravity modeling. For the latter, we use two different gravity datasets including global satellite data and local marine gravity observation. Considering the two different datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, we suggest three possible “end-member” solutions that are all consistent with the observed gravity field and illustrate the spectrum of possible solutions. These models indicate that the observed gravitational anomalies originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. Two layers of sediments, one syn-kinematic and one pre-kinematic with respect to the Sea of Marmara formation are underlain by a heterogeneous crystalline crust. A felsic upper crystalline crust (average density of 2720 kgm⁻³) and an intermediate to mafic lower crystalline crust (average density of 2890 kgm⁻³) appear to be cross-cut by two large, dome-shaped mafic highdensity bodies (density of 2890 to 3150 kgm⁻³) of considerable thickness above a rather uniform lithospheric mantle (3300 kgm⁻³). The spatial correlation between two major bends of the main Marmara fault and the location of the highdensity bodies suggests that the distribution of lithological heterogeneities within the crust controls the rheological behavior along the NAFZ and, consequently, maybe influences fault segmentation and thus the seismic hazard assessment in the region.
Abstract. The aim of this study is to investigate the shallow thermal field differences for two differently aged passive continental margins by analyzing regional variations in geothermal gradient and exploring the controlling factors for these variations. Hence, we analyzed two previously published 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models of the Southwest African and the Norwegian passive margins. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysical data such as seismic observations and the gravity field. We extracted the temperature–depth distributions in 1 km intervals down to 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition. The geothermal gradient was then calculated for these intervals between the upper thermal boundary condition and the respective depth levels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition). According to our results, the geothermal gradient decreases with increasing depth and shows varying lateral trends and values for these two different margins. We compare the 3-D geological structural models and the geothermal gradient variations for both thermal models and show how radiogenic heat production, sediment insulating effect, and thermal lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth influence the shallow thermal field pattern. The results indicate an ongoing process of oceanic mantle cooling at the young Norwegian margin compared with the old SW African passive margin that seems to be thermally equilibrated in the present day.
Abstract. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is a transition zone where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) propagates westward from the Anatolian Plate to the Aegean Sea Plate. The area is of interest in the context of seismic hazard of Istanbul, a metropolitan area with about 15 million inhabitants. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the crustal heterogeneities is still missing. To assess if and how crustal heterogeneities are related to the NAFZ segmentation below the Sea of Marmara, we develop new crustal-scale 3-D density models which integrate geological and seismological data and that are additionally constrained by 3-D gravity modeling. For the latter, we use two different gravity datasets including global satellite data and local marine gravity observation. Considering the two different datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, we suggest three possible “end-member” solutions that are all consistent with the observed gravity field and illustrate the spectrum of possible solutions. These models indicate that the observed gravitational anomalies originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. Two layers of sediments, one syn-kinematic and one pre-kinematic with respect to the Sea of Marmara formation are underlain by a heterogeneous crystalline crust. A felsic upper crystalline crust (average density of 2720 kgm⁻³) and an intermediate to mafic lower crystalline crust (average density of 2890 kgm⁻³) appear to be cross-cut by two large, dome-shaped mafic highdensity bodies (density of 2890 to 3150 kgm⁻³) of considerable thickness above a rather uniform lithospheric mantle (3300 kgm⁻³). The spatial correlation between two major bends of the main Marmara fault and the location of the highdensity bodies suggests that the distribution of lithological heterogeneities within the crust controls the rheological behavior along the NAFZ and, consequently, maybe influences fault segmentation and thus the seismic hazard assessment in the region.
Abstract. The aim of this study is to investigate the shallow thermal field differences for two differently aged passive continental margins by analyzing regional variations in geothermal gradient and exploring the controlling factors for these variations. Hence, we analyzed two previously published 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models of the Southwest African and the Norwegian passive margins. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysical data such as seismic observations and the gravity field. We extracted the temperature–depth distributions in 1 km intervals down to 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition. The geothermal gradient was then calculated for these intervals between the upper thermal boundary condition and the respective depth levels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition). According to our results, the geothermal gradient decreases with increasing depth and shows varying lateral trends and values for these two different margins. We compare the 3-D geological structural models and the geothermal gradient variations for both thermal models and show how radiogenic heat production, sediment insulating effect, and thermal lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth influence the shallow thermal field pattern. The results indicate an ongoing process of oceanic mantle cooling at the young Norwegian margin compared with the old SW African passive margin that seems to be thermally equilibrated in the present day.
How biased are our models?
(2021)
Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.
In an ocean-continent subduction zone, the assessment of the lithospheric thermal state is essential to determine the controls of the deformation within the upper plate and the dip angle of the subducting lithosphere. In this study, we evaluate the degree of influence of both the configuration of the upper plate (i.e., thickness and composition of the rock units) and variations of the subduction angle on the lithospheric thermal field of the southern Central Andes (29 degrees-39 degrees S). Here, the subduction angle increases from subhorizontal (5 degrees) north of 33 degrees S to steep (similar to 30 degrees) in the south. We derived the 3D temperature and heat flow distribution of the lithosphere in the southern Central Andes considering conversion of S wave tomography to temperatures together with steady-state conductive thermal modeling. We found that the orogen is overall warmer than the forearc and the foreland and that the lithosphere of the northern part of the foreland appears colder than its southern counterpart. Sedimentary blanketing and the thickness of the radiogenic crust exert the main control on the shallow thermal field (<50km depth). Specific conditions are present where the oceanic slab is relatively shallow (<85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin. This configuration results in relatively colder temperatures compared to regions where the radiogenic crust is thick and the slab is steep. At depths >50km, the temperatures of the overriding plate are mainly controlled by the mantle heat input and the subduction angle. The thermal field of the upper plate likely preserves the flat subduction angle and influences the spatial distribution of shortening.
Dissolved CO2 storage in geological formations with low pressure, low risk and large capacities
(2017)
Geological CO2 storage is a mitigation technology to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. However, major concerns are the pressure increase and saltwater displacement in the mainly targeted deep groundwater aquifers due to injection of supercritical CO2. The suggested solution is storage of CO2 exclusively in the dissolved state. In our exemplary regional case study of the North East German Basin based on a highly resolved temperature and pressure distribution model and a newly developed reactive transport coupling, we have quantified that 4.7 Gt of CO2 can be stored in solution compared to 1.5 Gt in the supercritical state.
Understanding the interactions between the different processes that control the geothermal and fluid flow fields in sedimentary basins is crucial for exploitation of geothermal energy. Numerical models provide predictive and feasible information for a correct assessment of geothermal resources especially in areas where data acquisition is demanding. Here, we present results from numerical efforts to characterize the thermal structure and its interaction with the fluid system for the area of the North East German Basin (NEGB). The relative impact of the different (diffusive and advective) processes affecting the hydrothermal setting of the basin are investigated by means of three- dimensional numerical simulations. Lithospheric-scale numerical models are evaluated to understand the specific thermal signature of the relevant factors influencing the present-day conductive geothermal field in the NEGB. Shallow and deep structural controls on the thermal configuration of the basin are addressed and quantified. Interaction between the resulting thermal field and the active fluid system is investigated by means of three-dimensional simulations of coupled fluid flow and heat transport. Factors influencing stability and reliability of modeling predictions are discussed. The main effort is to build a physically consistent model for the basin which integrates the impacts of thermal gradients on the regional fluid regime and their coupling with the main geological units defining the basin.
Based on a numerical model of the Northeast German Basin (NEGB), we investigate the sensitivity of the calculated thermal field as resulting from heat conduction, forced and free convection in response to consecutive horizontal and vertical mesh refinements. Our results suggest that computational findings are more sensitive to consecutive horizontal mesh refinements than to changes in the vertical resolution. In addition, the degree of mesh sensitivity depends strongly on the type of the process being investigated, whether heat conduction, forced convection or free thermal convection represents the active heat driver. In this regard, heat conduction exhibits to be relative robust to imposed changes in the spatial discretization. A systematic mesh sensitivity is observed in areas where forced convection promotes an effective role in shorten the background conductive thermal field. In contrast, free thermal convection is to be regarded as the most sensitive heat transport process as demonstrated by non-systematic changes in the temperature field with respect to imposed changes in the model resolution.