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The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.
We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.
The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing, and documenting good modelling practice. TRACE documents should provide convincing evidence that a model was thoughtfully designed, correctly implemented, thoroughly tested, well understood, and appropriately used for its intended purpose. TRACE documents link the science underlying a model to its application, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its structure and more specific guidance for its use are needed. The updated TRACE format follows the recently developed framework of model 'evaludation': the entire process of establishing model quality and credibility throughout all stages of model development, analysis, and application. TRACE thus becomes a tool for planning, documenting, and assessing model evaludation, which includes understanding the rationale behind a model and its envisaged use. We introduce the new structure and revised terminology of TRACE and provide examples. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Improving the photochemical properties of molecular photoswitches is crucial for the development of light-responsive systems in materials and life sciences. ortho-Fluoroazobenzenes are a new class of rationally designed photochromic azo compounds with optimized properties, such as the ability to isomerize with visible light only, high photoconversions, and unprecedented robust bistable character. Introducing sigma-electron-withdrawing F atoms ortho to the N=N unit leads to both an effective separation of the n -> pi* bands of the E and Z isomers, thus offering the possibility of using these two transitions for selectively inducing E/Z iso-merizations, and greatly enhanced thermal stability of the Z isomers. Additional para-electron-withdrawing groups (EWGs) work in concert with ortho-F atoms, giving rise to enhanced separation of the n -> pi* transitions. A comprehensive study of the effect of substitution on the key photochemical properties of ortho-fluoroazobenzenes is reported herein. In particular, the position, number, and nature of the EWGs have been varied, and the visible light photoconversions, quantum yields of isomerization, and thermal stabilities have been measured and rationalized by DFT calculations.
Towards an understanding of climate proxy formation in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopian Rift
(2018)
Deciphering paleoclimate from lake sediments is a challenge due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Here we show the links between potassium (K) concentrations in the sediments of the Chew Bahir basin in the Southern Ethiopian Rift and fluctuations in the catchment precipitation/evaporation balance. Our micro-X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction results suggest that the most likely process linking climate with potassium concentrations is the authigenic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed -basin lake, due to a drier climate. Whole-rock and clay size fraction analyses suggest that illitization of the Chew Bahir clay minerals with increasing evaporation is enhanced by octahedral Al-to-Mg substitution in the clay minerals, with the resulting layer charge increase facilitating potassium-fixation. Linking mineralogy with geochemistry shows the links between hydroclimatic control, process and formation of the Chew Bahir K patterns, in the context of well-known and widely documented eastern African climate fluctuations over the last 45,000 years. These results indicate characteristic mineral alteration patterns associated with orbitally controlled wet-dry cycles such as the African Humid Period (similar to 15-5 ka) or high-latitude controlled climate events such as the Younger Dryas (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka) chronozone. Determining the impact of authigenic mineral alteration on the Chew Bahir records enables the interpretation of the previously established pXRF-derived aridity proxy K and provides a better paleohydrological understanding of complex climate proxy formation.
Ventilator-induced lung injury is aggravated by antibiotic mediated microbiota depletion in mice
(2018)
BackgroundAntibiotic exposure alters the microbiota, which can impact the inflammatory immune responses. Critically ill patients frequently receive antibiotic treatment and are often subjected to mechanical ventilation, which may induce local and systemic inflammatory responses and development of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). The aim of this study was to investigate whether disruption of the microbiota by antibiotic therapy prior to mechanical ventilation affects pulmonary inflammatory responses and thereby the development of VILI.MethodsMice underwent 6-8weeks of enteral antibiotic combination treatment until absence of cultivable bacteria in fecal samples was confirmed. Control mice were housed equally throughout this period. VILI was induced 3 days after completing the antibiotic treatment protocol, by high tidal volume (HTV) ventilation (34ml/kg; positive end-expiratory pressure=2 cmH(2)O) for 4h. Differences in lung function, oxygenation index, pulmonary vascular leakage, macroscopic assessment of lung injury, and leukocyte and lymphocyte differentiation were assessed. Control groups of mice ventilated with low tidal volume and non-ventilated mice were analyzed accordingly.ResultsAntibiotic-induced microbiota depletion prior to HTV ventilation led to aggravation of VILI, as shown by increased pulmonary permeability, increased oxygenation index, decreased pulmonary compliance, enhanced macroscopic lung injury, and increased cytokine/chemokine levels in lung homogenates.ConclusionsDepletion of the microbiota by broad-spectrum antibiotics prior to HTV ventilation renders mice more susceptible to developing VILI, which could be clinically relevant for critically ill patients frequently receiving broad-spectrum antibiotics.
The structure of bulk liquid water was recently probed by x-ray scattering below the temperature limit of homogeneous nucleation (T-H) of similar to 232 K [J. A. Sellberg et al., Nature 510, 381-384 (2014)]. Here, we utilize a similar approach to study the structure of bulk liquid water below T-H using oxygen K-edge x-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). Based on previous XES experiments [T. Tokushima et al., Chem. Phys. Lett. 460, 387-400 (2008)] at higher temperatures, we expected the ratio of the 1b(1)' and 1b(1)" peaks associated with the lone-pair orbital in water to change strongly upon deep supercooling as the coordination of the hydrogen (H-) bonds becomes tetrahedral. In contrast, we observed only minor changes in the lone-pair spectral region, challenging an interpretation in terms of two interconverting species. A number of alternative hypotheses to explain the results are put forward and discussed. Although the spectra can be explained by various contributions from these hypotheses, we here emphasize the interpretation that the line shape of each component changes dramatically when approaching lower temperatures, where, in particular, the peak assigned to the proposed disordered component would become more symmetrical as vibrational interference becomes more important. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
Soft X-ray spectroscopies are ideal probes of the local valence electronic structure of photocatalytically active metal sites. Here, we apply the selectivity of time resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering at the iron L-edge to the transient charge distribution of an optically excited charge-transfer state in aqueous ferricyanide. Through comparison to steady-state spectra and quantum chemical calculations, the coupled effects of valence-shell closing and ligand-hole creation are experimentally and theoretically disentangled and described in terms of orbital occupancy, metal-ligand covalency, and ligand field splitting, thereby extending established steady-state concepts to the excited-state domain. pi-Back-donation is found to be mainly determined by the metal site occupation, whereas the ligand hole instead influences sigma-donation. Our results demonstrate how ultrafast resonant inelastic X-ray scattering can help characterize local charge distributions around catalytic metal centers in short-lived charge-transfer excited states, as a step toward future rationalization and tailoring of photocatalytic capabilities of transition-metal complexes.
We report on oxygen K-edge soft x-ray emission spectroscopy from a liquid water jet at the Linac Coherent Light Source. We observe significant changes in the spectral content when tuning over a wide range of incident x-ray fluences. In addition the total emission yield decreases at high fluences. These modifications result from reabsorption of x-ray emission by valence-excited molecules generated by the Auger cascade. Our observations have major implications for future x-ray emission studies at intense x-ray sources. We highlight the importance of the x-ray pulse length with respect to the core-hole lifetime.
A cationic surfactant containing a spiropyrane unit is prepared exhibiting a dual-responsive adjustability of its surface-active characteristics. The switching mechanism of the system relies on the reversible conversion of the non-ionic spiropyrane (SP) to a zwitterionic merocyanine (MC) and can be controlled by adjusting the pH value and via light, resulting in a pH-dependent photoactivity: While the compound possesses a pronounced difference in surface activity between both forms under acidic conditions, this behavior is suppressed at a neutral pH level. The underlying switching processes are investigated in detail, and a thermodynamic explanation based on a combination of theoretical and experimental results is provided. This complex stimuli-responsive behavior enables remote-control of colloidal systems. To demonstrate its applicability, the surfactant is utilized for the pH-dependent manipulation of oil-in-water emulsions.