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To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.
Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
Resolving the grand challenges and wicked problems of the Anthropocene will require skillfully combining a broad range of knowledge and understandings-both scientific and non-scientific-of Earth systems and human societies. One approach to this is transdisciplinary research, which has gained considerable interest over the last few decades, resulting in an extensive body of literature about transdisciplinarity. However, this has in turn led to the challenge that developing a good understanding of transdisciplinary research can require extensive effort. Here we provide a focused overview and perspective for disciplinary and interdisciplinary researchers who are interested in efficiently obtaining a solid understanding of transdisciplinarity. We describe definitions, characteristics, schools of thought, and an exemplary three-phase model of transdisciplinary research. We also discuss three key challenges that transdisciplinary research faces in the context of addressing the broader challenges of the Anthropocene, and we consider approaches to dealing with these specific challenges, based especially on our experiences with building up transdisciplinary research projects at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies.
Urban air pollution is a substantial threat to human health. Traffic emissions remain a large contributor to air pollution in urban areas. The mobility restrictions put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic provided a large-scale real-world experiment that allows for the evaluation of changes in traffic emissions and the corresponding changes in air quality. Here we use observational data, as well as modelling, to analyse changes in nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter resulting from the COVID-19 restrictions at the height of the lockdown period in Spring of 2020. Accounting for the influence of meteorology on air quality, we found that reduction of ca. 30-50 % in traffic counts, dominated by changes in passenger cars, corresponded to reductions in median observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations of ca. 40 % (traffic and urban background locations) and a ca. 22 % increase in ozone (urban background locations) during weekdays. Lesser reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations were observed at urban background stations at weekends, and no change in ozone was observed. The modelled reductions in median nitrogen dioxide at urban background locations were smaller than the observed reductions and the change was not significant. The model results showed no significant change in ozone on weekdays or weekends. The lack of a simulated weekday/weekend effect is consistent with previous work suggesting that NOx emissions from traffic could be significantly underestimated in European cities by models. These results indicate the potential for improvements in air quality due to policies for reducing traffic, along with the scale of reductions that would be needed to result in meaningful changes in air quality if a transition to sustainable mobility is to be seriously considered. They also confirm once more the highly relevant role of traffic for air quality in urban areas.
The SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley-Atmospheric Brown Clouds) international air pollution measurement campaign was carried out from December 2012 to June 2013 in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions in Nepal. The Kathmandu Valley is a bowl-shaped basin with a severe air pollution problem. This paper reports measurements of two major greenhouse gases (GHGs), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), along with the pollutant CO, that began during the campaign and were extended for 1 year at the SusKat-ABC supersite in Bode, a semi-urban location in the Kathmandu Valley. Simultaneous measurements were also made during 2015 in Bode and a nearby rural site (Chanban) similar to 25 km (aerial distance) to the southwest of Bode on the other side of a tall ridge. The ambient mixing ratios of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor, and carbon monoxide (CO) were measured with a cavity ring-down spectrometer (G2401; Picarro, USA) along with meteorological parameters for 1 year (March 2013-March 2014). These measurements are the first of their kind in the central Himalayan foothills. At Bode, the annual average mixing ratios of CO2 and CH4 were 419.3 (+/- 6.0) ppm and 2.192 (+/- 0.066) ppm, respectively. These values are higher than the levels observed at background sites such as Mauna Loa, USA (CO2: 396.8 +/- 2.0 ppm, CH4: 1.831 +/- 0.110 ppm) and Waliguan, China (CO2: 397.7 +/- 3.6 ppm, CH4: 1.879 +/- 0.009 ppm) during the same period and at other urban and semi-urban sites in the region, such as Ahmedabad and Shadnagar (India). They varied slightly across the seasons at Bode, with seasonal average CH4 mixing ratios of 2.157 (+/- 0.230) ppm in the pre-monsoon season, 2.199 (+/- 0.241) ppm in the monsoon, 2.210 (+/- 0.200) ppm in the post-monsoon, and 2.214 (+/- 0.209) ppm in the winter season. The average CO2 mixing ratios were 426.2 (+/- 25.5) ppm in the pre-monsoon, 413.5 (+/- 24.2) ppm in the monsoon, 417.3 (+/- 23.1) ppm in the postmonsoon, and 421.9 (+/- 20.3) ppm in the winter season. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratio of CH4 in winter was only 0.057 ppm or 2.6% higher than the seasonal minimum during the pre-monsoon period, while CO2 was 12.8 ppm or 3.1% higher during the pre-monsoon period (seasonal maximum) than during the monsoon (seasonal minimum). On the other hand, the CO mixing ratio at Bode was 191% higher during the winter than during the monsoon season. The enhancement in CO2 mixing ratios during the pre-monsoon season is associated with additional CO2 emissions from forest fires and agro-residue burning in northern South Asia in addition to local emissions in the Kathmandu Valley. Published CO = CO2 ratios of different emission sources in Nepal and India were compared with the observed CO = CO2 ratios in this study. This comparison suggested that the major sources in the Kathmandu Valley were residential cooking and vehicle exhaust in all seasons except winter. In winter, brick kiln emissions were a major source. Simultaneous measurements in Bode and Chanban (15 July-3 October 2015) revealed that the mixing ratios of CO2, CH4, and CO were 3.8, 12, and 64% higher in Bode than Chanban.
The Kathmandu Valley thus has significant emissions from local sources, which can also be attributed to its bowl-shaped geography that is conducive to pollution build-up. At Bode, all three gas species (CO2, CH4, and CO) showed strong diurnal patterns in their mixing ratios with a pronounced morning peak (ca. 08:00), a dip in the afternoon, and a gradual increase again through the night until the next morning. CH4 and CO at Chanban, however, did not show any noticeable diurnal variations.
These measurements provide the first insights into the diurnal and seasonal variation in key greenhouse gases and air pollutants and their local and regional sources, which is important information for atmospheric research in the region.
Residents of the Kathmandu Valley experience severe particulate and gaseous air pollution throughout most of the year, even during much of the rainy season. The knowledge base for understanding the air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley was previously very limited, but is improving rapidly due to several field measurement studies conducted in the last few years. Thus far, most analyses of observations in the Kathmandu Valley have been limited to short periods of time at single locations. This study extends on the past studies by examining the spatial and temporal characteristics of two important gaseous air pollutant (CO and O3) based on simultaneous observations over a longer period at five locations within the valley and on its rim, including a supersite (at Bode in the valley center, 1345m above sea level) and four satellite sites (at Paknajol, 1380masl in the Kathmandu city center, at Bhimdhunga (1522masl), a mountain pass on the valley's western rim, at Nagarkot (1901masl), another mountain pass on the eastern rim, and Naikhandi, near the valley's only river outlet). CO and O3 mixing ratios were monitored from January to July 2013, along with other gases and aerosol particles by instruments deployed at the Bode supersite during the international air pollution measurement campaign SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – endorsed by the Atmospheric Brown Clouds program of UNEP). The O3 monitoring at Bode, Paknajol and Nagarkot as well as the CO monitoring at Bode were extended beyond July 2013 to investigate their variability over a complete annual cycle. Higher CO mixing ratios were found at Bode than at the outskirt sites (Bhimdhunga, Naikhandi and Nagarkot), and all sites except Nagarkot showed distinct diurnal cycles of CO mixing ratio with morning peaks and daytime lows. Seasonally, CO was higher during the pre-monsoon and winter seasons, especially due to the emissions from brick kiln industries, which only operate during this period, as well as increased domestic heating during winter, and regional forest fires and agro-residue burning. It was lower during the monsoon due to rainfall, which reduces open burning activities within the valley and in the surrounding regions, and thus reduces the sources of CO. The meteorology of the valley also played a key role in determining the CO mixing ratios. Furthermore, there was evidence of some influence of pollution from the greater region around the valley. A top-down estimate of the CO emission flux was made by using the CO mixing ratio and mixing layer height (MLH) measured at Bode. The estimated annual CO flux at Bode was 4.92μgm−2s−1, which is 2–14 times higher than that in widely used emission inventory databases (EDGAR HTAP, REAS and INTEX-B). This difference in CO flux between Bode and other emission databases likely arises from large uncertainties in both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimating the emission flux. The O3 mixing ratio was found to be highest during the pre-monsoon season at all sites, while the timing of the seasonal minimum varied across the sites. The daily maximum 8 hour average O3 exceeded the WHO recommended guideline of 50ppb on more days at the hilltop station of Nagarkot (159/357 days) than at the urban valley bottom sites of Paknajol (132/354 days) and Bode (102/353 days), presumably due to the influence of free-tropospheric air at the high-altitude site, as well as to titration of O3 by fresh NOx emissions near the urban sites. More than 78% of the exceedance days were during the pre-monsoon period at all sites. This was due to both favorable meteorological conditions as well as contributions of precursors from regional sources such as forest fires and agro-residue burning. The high O3 mixing ratio observed during the pre-monsoon period is of a high concern for human health and ecosystems, including agroecosystems in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions.
The SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley-Atmospheric Brown Clouds) international air pollution measurement campaign was carried out from December 2012 to June 2013 in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions in Nepal. The Kathmandu Valley is a bowl-shaped basin with a severe air pollution problem. This paper reports measurements of two major greenhouse gases (GHGs), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), along with the pollutant CO, that began during the campaign and were extended for 1 year at the SusKat-ABC supersite in Bode, a semi-urban location in the Kathmandu Valley. Simultaneous measurements were also made during 2015 in Bode and a nearby rural site (Chanban) similar to 25 km (aerial distance) to the southwest of Bode on the other side of a tall ridge. The ambient mixing ratios of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor, and carbon monoxide (CO) were measured with a cavity ring-down spectrometer (G2401; Picarro, USA) along with meteorological parameters for 1 year (March 2013-March 2014). These measurements are the first of their kind in the central Himalayan foothills. At Bode, the annual average mixing ratios of CO2 and CH4 were 419.3 (+/- 6.0) ppm and 2.192 (+/- 0.066) ppm, respectively. These values are higher than the levels observed at background sites such as Mauna Loa, USA (CO2: 396.8 +/- 2.0 ppm, CH4: 1.831 +/- 0.110 ppm) and Waliguan, China (CO2: 397.7 +/- 3.6 ppm, CH4: 1.879 +/- 0.009 ppm) during the same period and at other urban and semi-urban sites in the region, such as Ahmedabad and Shadnagar (India). They varied slightly across the seasons at Bode, with seasonal average CH4 mixing ratios of 2.157 (+/- 0.230) ppm in the pre-monsoon season, 2.199 (+/- 0.241) ppm in the monsoon, 2.210 (+/- 0.200) ppm in the post-monsoon, and 2.214 (+/- 0.209) ppm in the winter season. The average CO2 mixing ratios were 426.2 (+/- 25.5) ppm in the pre-monsoon, 413.5 (+/- 24.2) ppm in the monsoon, 417.3 (+/- 23.1) ppm in the postmonsoon, and 421.9 (+/- 20.3) ppm in the winter season. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratio of CH4 in winter was only 0.057 ppm or 2.6% higher than the seasonal minimum during the pre-monsoon period, while CO2 was 12.8 ppm or 3.1% higher during the pre-monsoon period (seasonal maximum) than during the monsoon (seasonal minimum). On the other hand, the CO mixing ratio at Bode was 191% higher during the winter than during the monsoon season. The enhancement in CO2 mixing ratios during the pre-monsoon season is associated with additional CO2 emissions from forest fires and agro-residue burning in northern South Asia in addition to local emissions in the Kathmandu Valley. Published CO = CO2 ratios of different emission sources in Nepal and India were compared with the observed CO = CO2 ratios in this study. This comparison suggested that the major sources in the Kathmandu Valley were residential cooking and vehicle exhaust in all seasons except winter. In winter, brick kiln emissions were a major source. Simultaneous measurements in Bode and Chanban (15 July-3 October 2015) revealed that the mixing ratios of CO2, CH4, and CO were 3.8, 12, and 64% higher in Bode than Chanban. The Kathmandu Valley thus has significant emissions from local sources, which can also be attributed to its bowl-shaped geography that is conducive to pollution build-up. At Bode, all three gas species (CO2, CH4, and CO) showed strong diurnal patterns in their mixing ratios with a pronounced morning peak (ca. 08:00), a dip in the afternoon, and a gradual increase again through the night until the next morning. CH4 and CO at Chanban, however, did not show any noticeable diurnal variations. These measurements provide the first insights into the diurnal and seasonal variation in key greenhouse gases and air pollutants and their local and regional sources, which is important information for atmospheric research in the region.
It was lower during the monsoon due to rainfall, which reduces open burning activities within the valley and in the surrounding regions and thus reduces sources of CO. The meteorology of the valley also played a key role in determining the CO mixing ratios. The wind is calm and easterly in the shallow mixing layer, with a mixing layer height (MLH) of about 250 m, during the night and early morning. The MLH slowly increases after sunrise and decreases in the afternoon. As a result, the westerly wind becomes active and reduces the mixing ratio during the daytime. Furthermore, there was evidence of an increase in the O-3 mixing ratios in the Kathmandu Valley as a result of emissions in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region, particularly from biomass burning including agroresidue burning. A top-down estimate of the CO emission flux was made by using the CO mixing ratio and mixing layer height measured at Bode. The estimated annual CO flux at Bode was 4.9 mu g M-2 s(-1), which is 2-14 times higher than that in widely used emission inventory databases (EDGAR HTAP, REAS and INTEX-B). This difference in CO flux between Bode and other emission databases likely arises from large uncertainties in both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimating the emission flux. The O-3 mixing ratio was found to be highest during the premonsoon season at all sites, while the timing of the seasonal minimum varied across the sites. The daily maximum 8 h average O-3 exceeded the WHO recommended guideline of 50 ppb on more days at the hilltop station of Nagarkot (159 out of 357 days) than at the urban valley bottom sites of Paknajol (132 out of 354 days) and Bode (102 out of 353 days), presumably due to the influence of free-tropospheric air at the high-altitude site (as also indicated by Putero et al., 2015, for the Paknajol site in the Kathmandu Valley) as well as to titration of O-3 by fresh NOx emissions near the urban sites. More than 78 % of the exceedance days were during the premonsoon period at all sites. The high O-3 mixing ratio observed during the premonsoon period is of a concern for human health and ecosystems, including agroecosystems in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions.
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
(2018)
Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth’s radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.