Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (38)
- Postprint (5)
- Conference Proceeding (2)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (1)
- Review (1)
Language
- English (47)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (47)
Keywords
- ARL3 (2)
- RP2 (2)
- acute kidney injury (2)
- end-stage kidney disease (2)
- genome-wide association (2)
- heterojunction silicon solar cells (2)
- interfaces (2)
- perovskite solar cells (2)
- rapid eGFRcrea decline (2)
- study (2)
Institute
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (17)
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (15)
- Hasso-Plattner-Institut für Digital Engineering GmbH (4)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (4)
- Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät (3)
- Institut für Ernährungswissenschaft (2)
- Institut für Chemie (1)
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (1)
The origins and development of the arid and highly seasonal steppe-desert biome in Central Asia, the largest of its kind in the world, remain largely unconstrained by existing records. It is unclear how Cenozoic climatic, geological, and biological forces, acting at diverse spatial and temporal scales, shaped Central Asian ecosystems through time. Our synthesis shows that the Central Asian steppe-desert has existed since at least Eocene times but experienced no less than two regime shifts, one at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and one in the mid-Miocene. These shifts separated three successive "stable states," each characterized by unique floral and faunal structures. Past responses to disturbance in the Asian steppe-desert imply that modern ecosystems are unlikely to recover their present structures and diversity if forced into a new regime. This is of concern for Asian steppes today, which are being modified for human use and lost to desertification at unprecedented rates.
We report on simultaneous broadband observations of the TeV-emitting blazar Markarian 501 between 2013 April 1 and August 10, including the first detailed characterization of the synchrotron peak with Swift and NuSTAR. During the campaign, the nearby BL Lac object was observed in both a quiescent and an elevated state. The broadband campaign includes observations with NuSTAR, MAGIC, VERITAS, the Fermi Large Area Telescope, Swift X-ray Telescope and UV Optical Telescope, various ground-based optical instruments, including the GASP-WEBT program, as well as radio observations by OVRO, Metsahovi, and the F-Gamma consortium. Some of the MAGIC observations were affected by a sand layer from the Saharan desert, and had to be corrected using event-by-event corrections derived with a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) facility. This is the first time that LIDAR information is used to produce a physics result with Cherenkov Telescope data taken during adverse atmospheric conditions, and hence sets a precedent for the current and future ground-based gamma-ray instruments. The NuSTAR instrument provides unprecedented sensitivity in hard X-rays, showing the source to display a spectral energy distribution (SED) between 3 and 79 keV consistent with a log-parabolic spectrum and hard X-ray variability on hour timescales. None (of the four extended NuSTAR observations) show evidence of the onset of inverse-Compton emission at hard X-ray energies. We apply a single-zone equilibrium synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model to five simultaneous broadband SEDs. We find that the SSC model can reproduce the observed broadband states through a decrease in the magnetic field strength coinciding with an increase in the luminosity and hardness of the relativistic leptons responsible for the high-energy emission.
A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
(2019)
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
Birth weight within the normal range is associated with a variety of adult-onset diseases, but the mechanisms behind these associations are poorly understood(1). Previous genome-wide association studies of birth weight identified a variant in the ADCY5 gene associated both with birth weight and type 2 diabetes and a second variant, near CCNL1, with no obvious link to adult traits(2). In an expanded genome-wide association metaanalysis and follow-up study of birth weight (of up to 69,308 individuals of European descent from 43 studies), we have now extended the number of loci associated at genome-wide significance to 7, accounting for a similar proportion of variance as maternal smoking. Five of the loci are known to be associated with other phenotypes: ADCY5 and CDKAL1 with type 2 diabetes, ADRB1 with adult blood pressure and HMGA2 and LCORL with adult height. Our findings highlight genetic links between fetal growth and postnatal growth and metabolism.
River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth’s biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented “next-generation biomonitoring” by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother-child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P< 5 x 10(-8). In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights.
Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother–child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P < 5 Â 10 À8 . In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights.
Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or (LARP4B). Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.
Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or (LARP4B). Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.
Low cost, large area, lightweight, stretchable piezoelectric films, based on space-charge electret with a foam structure (i.e., ferroelectrets or piezoelectrets), have been fabricated by using commercially available irradiation cross-linked poly(propylene) (IXPP) foam sheets. Piezoelectric d(33) coefficients are as high as 100pCN(-1). The piezoelectric performance in such IXPP films is well preserved for repeated strains of less than 10%. Piezoelectric d(33) coefficients are frequency independent in the range from 2 to 100Hz. Such new class materials may be applied in sensory skins, smart clothing, bio-inspired systems, microenergy harvesters, and so on.
Coccolithophores have influenced the global climate for over 200 million years(1). These marine phytoplankton can account for 20 per cent of total carbon fixation in some systems(2). They form blooms that can occupy hundreds of thousands of square kilometres and are distinguished by their elegantly sculpted calcium carbonate exoskeletons (coccoliths), rendering them visible from space(3). Although coccolithophores export carbon in the form of organic matter and calcite to the sea floor, they also release CO2 in the calcification process. Hence, they have a complex influence on the carbon cycle, driving either CO2 production or uptake, sequestration and export to the deep ocean(4). Here we report the first haptophyte reference genome, from the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi strain CCMP1516, and sequences from 13 additional isolates. Our analyses reveal a pan genome (core genes plus genes distributed variably between strains) probably supported by an atypical complement of repetitive sequence in the genome. Comparisons across strains demonstrate that E. huxleyi, which has long been considered a single species, harbours extensive genome variability reflected in different metabolic repertoires. Genome variability within this species complex seems to underpin its capacity both to thrive in habitats ranging from the equator to the subarctic and to form large-scale episodic blooms under a wide variety of environmental conditions.
GrassPlot is a collaborative vegetation-plot database organised by the Eurasian Dry Grassland Group (EDGG) and listed in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD ID EU-00-003). GrassPlot collects plot records (releves) from grasslands and other open habitats of the Palaearctic biogeographic realm. It focuses on precisely delimited plots of eight standard grain sizes (0.0001; 0.001;... 1,000 m(2)) and on nested-plot series with at least four different grain sizes. The usage of GrassPlot is regulated through Bylaws that intend to balance the interests of data contributors and data users. The current version (v. 1.00) contains data for approximately 170,000 plots of different sizes and 2,800 nested-plot series. The key components are richness data and metadata. However, most included datasets also encompass compositional data. About 14,000 plots have near-complete records of terricolous bryophytes and lichens in addition to vascular plants. At present, GrassPlot contains data from 36 countries throughout the Palaearctic, spread across elevational gradients and major grassland types. GrassPlot with its multi-scale and multi-taxon focus complements the larger international vegetationplot databases, such as the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and the global database " sPlot". Its main aim is to facilitate studies on the scale-and taxon-dependency of biodiversity patterns and drivers along macroecological gradients. GrassPlot is a dynamic database and will expand through new data collection coordinated by the elected Governing Board. We invite researchers with suitable data to join GrassPlot. Researchers with project ideas addressable with GrassPlot data are welcome to submit proposals to the Governing Board.
The Brassicaceae, including Arabidopsis thaliana and Brassica crops, is unmatched among plants in its wealth of genomic and functional molecular data and has long served as a model for understanding gene, genome, and trait evolution. However, genome information from a phylogenetic outgroup that is essential for inferring directionality of evolutionary change has been lacking. We therefore sequenced the genome of the spider flower (Tarenaya hassleriana) from the Brassicaceae sister family, the Cleomaceae. By comparative analysis of the two lineages, we show that genome evolution following ancient polyploidy and gene duplication events affect reproductively important traits. We found an ancient genome triplication in Tarenaya (Th-alpha) that is independent of the Brassicaceae-specific duplication (At-alpha) and nested Brassica (Br-a) triplication. To showcase the potential of sister lineage genome analysis, we investigated the state of floral developmental genes and show Brassica retains twice as many floral MADS (for MINICHROMOSOME MAINTENANCE1, AGAMOUS, DEFICIENS and SERUM RESPONSE FACTOR) genes as Tarenaya that likely contribute to morphological diversity in Brassica. We also performed synteny analysis of gene families that confer self-incompatibility in Brassicaceae and found that the critical SERINE RECEPTOR KINASE receptor gene is derived from a lineage-specific tandem duplication. The T. hassleriana genome will facilitate future research toward elucidating the evolutionary history of Brassicaceae genomes.
Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen organic carbon (OC) to microbial decomposition, generating the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and fueling a positive climate feedback. Over one quarter of permafrost OC is stored in deep, ice-rich Pleistocene-aged yedoma permafrost deposits. We used a combination of anaerobic incubations, microbial sequencing, and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry to show yedoma OC biolability increases with depth along a 12-m yedoma profile. In incubations at 3 degrees C and 13 degrees C, GHG production per unit OC at 12-versus 1.3-m depth was 4.6 and 20.5 times greater, respectively. Bacterial diversity decreased with depth and we detected methanogens at all our sampled depths, suggesting that in situ microbial communities are equipped to metabolize thawed OC into CH4. We concurrently observed an increase in the relative abundance of reduced, saturated OC compounds, which corresponded to high proportions of C mineralization and positively correlated with anaerobic GHG production potentials and higher proportions of OC being mineralized as CH4. Taking into account the higher global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 compared to CO2, thawed yedoma sediments in our study had 2 times higher GWP at 12-versus 9.0-m depth at 3 degrees C and 15 times higher GWP at 13 degrees C. Considering that yedoma is vulnerable to processes that thaw deep OC, our findings imply that it is important to account for this increasing GHG production and GWP with depth to better understand the disproportionate impact of yedoma on the magnitude of the permafrost carbon feedback.
A comprehensive molecular analysis of a simple aqueous complexing system. U(VI) acetate. selected to be independently investigated by various spectroscopic (vibrational, luminescence, X-ray absorption, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy) and quantum chemical methods was achieved by an international round-robin test (RRT). Twenty laboratories from six different countries with a focus on actinide or geochemical research participated and contributed to this scientific endeavor. The outcomes of this RRT were considered on two levels of complexity: first, within each technical discipline, conformities as well as discrepancies of the results and their sources were evaluated. The raw data from the different experimental approaches were found to be generally consistent. In particular, for complex setups such as accelerator-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy, the agreement between the raw data was high. By contrast, luminescence spectroscopic data turned out to be strongly related to the chosen acquisition parameters. Second, the potentials and limitations of coupling various spectroscopic and theoretical approaches for the comprehensive study of actinide molecular complexes were assessed. Previous spectroscopic data from the literature were revised and the benchmark data on the U(VI) acetate system provided an unambiguous molecular interpretation based on the correlation of spectroscopic and theoretical results. The multimethodologic approach and the conclusions drawn address not only important aspects of actinide spectroscopy but particularly general aspects of modern molecular analytical chemistry.
We utilized femtosecond time-resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering and ab initio theory to study the transient electronic structure and the photoinduced molecular dynamics of a model metal carbonyl photocatalyst Fe(CO)(5) in ethanol solution. We propose mechanistic explanation for the parallel ultrafast intra-molecular spin crossover and ligation of the Fe(CO)(4) which are observed following a charge transfer photoexcitation of Fe(CO)(5) as reported in our previous study [ Wernet et al., Nature 520, 78 (2015)]. We find that branching of the reaction pathway likely happens in the (1)A(1) state of Fe(CO)(4). A sub-picosecond time constant of the spin crossover from B-1(2) to B-3(2) is rationalized by the proposed B-1(2) -> (1)A(1) -> B-3(2) mechanism. Ultrafast ligation of the B-1(2) Fe(CO)(4) state is significantly faster than the spin-forbidden and diffusion limited ligation process occurring from the B-3(2) Fe(CO)(4) ground state that has been observed in the previous studies. We propose that the ultrafast ligation occurs via B-1(2) -> (1)A(1) -> (1)A'Fe(CO)(4)EtOH pathway and the time scale of the (1)A(1) Fe(CO)(4) state ligation is governed by the solute-solvent collision frequency. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding the interaction of molecular excited states with the surrounding environment to explain the relaxation pathways of photoexcited metal carbonyls in solution. (C) 2016 Author(s).
Homotherium was a genus of large-bodied scimitar-toothed cats, morphologically distinct from any extant felid species, that went extinct at the end of the Pleistocene [1-4]. They possessed large, saber-form serrated canine teeth, powerful forelimbs, a sloping back, and an enlarged optic bulb, all of which were key characteristics for predation on Pleistocene megafauna [5]. Previous mitochondrial DNA phylogenies suggested that it was a highly divergent sister lineage to all extant cat species [6-8]. However, mitochondrial phylogenies can be misled by hybridization [9], incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), or sex-biased dispersal patterns [10], which might be especially relevant for Homotherium since widespread mito-nuclear discrepancies have been uncovered in modern cats [10]. To examine the evolutionary history of Homotherium, we generated a -7x nuclear genome and a similar to 38x exome from H. latidens using shotgun and target-capture sequencing approaches. Phylogenetic analyses reveal Homotherium as highly divergent (similar to 22.5 Ma) from living cat species, with no detectable signs of gene flow. Comparative genomic analyses found signatures of positive selection in several genes, including those involved in vision, cognitive function, and energy consumption, putatively consistent with diurnal activity, well-developed social behavior, and cursorial hunting [5]. Finally, we uncover relatively high levels of genetic diversity, suggesting that Homotherium may have been more abundant than the limited fossil record suggests [3, 4, 11-14]. Our findings complement and extend previous inferences from both the fossil record and initial molecular studies, enhancing our understanding of the evolution and ecology of this remarkable lineage.
On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip.
ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.