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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.
Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
The "Lomonosov" space project is lead by Lomonosov Moscow State University in collaboration with the following key partners: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Russia, University of California, Los Angeles (USA), University of Pueblo (Mexico), Sungkyunkwan University (Republic of Korea) and with Russian space industry organi-zations to study some of extreme phenomena in space related to astrophysics, astroparticle physics, space physics, and space biology. The primary goals of this experiment are to study: -Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) in the energy range of the Greizen-ZatsepinKuzmin (GZK) cutoff; -Ultraviolet (UV) transient luminous events in the upper atmosphere; -Multi-wavelength study of gamma-ray bursts in visible, UV, gamma, and X-rays; -Energetic trapped and precipitated radiation (electrons and protons) at low-Earth orbit (LEO) in connection with global geomagnetic disturbances; -Multicomponent radiation doses along the orbit of spacecraft under different geomagnetic conditions and testing of space segments of optical observations of space-debris and other space objects; -Instrumental vestibular-sensor conflict of zero-gravity phenomena during space flight. This paper is directed towards the general description of both scientific goals of the project and scientific equipment on board the satellite. The following papers of this issue are devoted to detailed descriptions of scientific instruments.
The "Lomonosov" space project is lead by Lomonosov Moscow State University in collaboration with the following key partners: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Russia, University of California, Los Angeles (USA), University of Pueblo (Mexico), Sungkyunkwan University (Republic of Korea) and with Russian space industry organi-zations to study some of extreme phenomena in space related to astrophysics, astroparticle physics, space physics, and space biology. The primary goals of this experiment are to study:
-Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) in the energy range of the Greizen-ZatsepinKuzmin (GZK) cutoff;
-Ultraviolet (UV) transient luminous events in the upper atmosphere;
-Multi-wavelength study of gamma-ray bursts in visible, UV, gamma, and X-rays;
-Energetic trapped and precipitated radiation (electrons and protons) at low-Earth orbit (LEO) in connection with global geomagnetic disturbances;
-Multicomponent radiation doses along the orbit of spacecraft under different geomagnetic conditions and testing of space segments of optical observations of space-debris and other space objects;
-Instrumental vestibular-sensor conflict of zero-gravity phenomena during space flight.
This paper is directed towards the general description of both scientific goals of the project and scientific equipment on board the satellite. The following papers of this issue are devoted to detailed descriptions of scientific instruments.
This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
We combine data from the Spitzer Survey for Stellar Structure in Galaxies, a recently calibrated empirical stellar mass estimator from Eskew et al., and an extensive database of Hi spectral line profiles to examine the baryonic Tully-Fisher (BTF) relation. We find (1) that the BTF has lower scatter than the classic Tully-Fisher (TF) relation and is better described as a linear relationship, confirming similar previous results, (2) that the inclusion of a radial scale in the BTF decreases the scatter but only modestly, as seen previously for the TF relation, and (3) that the slope of the BTF, which we find to be 3.5 +/- 0.2 (Delta log M-baryon/Delta log v(c)), implies that on average a nearly constant fraction (similar to 0.4) of all baryons expected to be in a halo are "condensed" onto the central region of rotationally supported galaxies. The condensed baryon fraction, M-baryon/M-total, is, to our measurement precision, nearly independent of galaxy circular velocity (our sample spans circular velocities, vc, between 60 and 250 km s(-1), but is extended to v(c) similar to 10 km s(-1) using data from the literature). The observed galaxy-to-galaxy scatter in this fraction is generally <= a factor of 2 despite fairly liberal selection criteria. These results imply that cooling and heating processes, such as cold versus hot accretion, mass loss due to stellar winds, and active galactic nucleus driven feedback, to the degree that they affect the global galactic properties involved in the BTF, are independent of halo mass for galaxies with 10 < v(c) < 250 km s(-1) and typically introduce no more than a factor of two range in the resulting M-baryon/M-total. Recent simulations by Aumer et al. of a small sample of disk galaxies are in excellent agreement with our data, suggesting that current simulations are capable of reproducing the global properties of individual disk galaxies. More detailed comparison to models using the BTF holds great promise, but awaits improved determinations of the stellar masses.
The bimolecular recombination characteristics of conjugated polymer poly[(4,4'-bis(2-ethylhexyl)dithieno[3,2-b:2',3'-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(2,5-bis 3-tetradecylthiophen-2-y1 thiazolo 5,4-d thiazole)-2,5diy1] (PDTSiTTz) blended with the fullerene series PC60BM, ICMA, ICBA, and ICTA have been investigated using microsecond and femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy, in conjunction with electroluminescence measurements and ambient photoemission spectroscopy. The non-Langevin polymer PDTSiTTz allows an inspection of intrinsic bimolecular recombination rates uninhibited by diffusion, while the low oscillator strengths of fullerenes allow polymer features to dominate, and we compare our results to those of the well-known polymer Si-PCPDTBT. Using mu s-TAS, we have shown that the trap -limited decay dynamics of the PDTSiTTz polaron becomes progressively slower across the fullerene series, while those of Si-PCPDTBT are invariant. Electroluminescence measurements showed an unusual double peak in pristine PDTSiTTz, attributed to a low energy intragap charge transfer state, likely interchain in nature. Furthermore, while the pristine PDTSiTTz showed a broad, low-intensity density of states, the ICBA and ICTA blends presented a virtually identical DOS to Si-PCPDTBT and its blends. This has been attributed to a shift from a delocalized, interchain highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) in the pristine material to a dithienosilole-centered HOMO in the blends, likely a result of the bulky fullerenes increasing interchain separation. This HOMO localization had a side effect of progressively shifting the polymer HOMO to shallower energies, which was correlated with the observed decrease in bimolecular recombination rate and increased "trap" depth. However, since the density of tail states remained the same, this suggests that the traditional viewpoint of "trapping" being dominated by tail states may not encompass the full picture and that the breadth of the DOS may also have a strong influence on bimolecular recombination.