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The response of rapidly compressed highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) normal to its basal plane was investigated at a pressure of & SIM;80 GPa. Ultrafast x-ray diffraction using & SIM;100 fs pulses at the Materials Under Extreme Conditions sector of the Linac Coherent Light Source was used to probe the changes in crystal structure resulting from picosecond timescale compression at laser drive energies ranging from 2.5 to 250 mJ. A phase transformation from HOPG to a highly textured hexagonal diamond structure is observed at the highest energy, followed by relaxation to a still highly oriented, but distorted graphite structure following release. We observe the formation of a highly oriented lonsdaleite within 20 ps, subsequent to compression. This suggests that a diffusionless martensitic mechanism may play a fundamental role in phase transition, as speculated in an early work on this system, and more recent static studies of diamonds formed in impact events. Published by AIP Publishing.
Understanding the association between autonomic nervous system [ANS] function and brain morphology across the lifespan provides important insights into neurovisceral mechanisms underlying health and disease. Resting-state ANS activity, indexed by measures of heart rate [HR] and its variability [HRV] has been associated with brain morphology, particularly cortical thickness [CT]. While findings have been mixed regarding the anatomical distribution and direction of the associations, these inconsistencies may be due to sex and age differences in HR/HRV and CT. Previous studies have been limited by small sample sizes, which impede the assessment of sex differences and aging effects on the association between ANS function and CT. To overcome these limitations, 20 groups worldwide contributed data collected under similar protocols of CT assessment and HR/HRV recording to be pooled in a mega-analysis (N = 1,218 (50.5% female), mean age 36.7 years (range: 12-87)). Findings suggest a decline in HRV as well as CT with increasing age. CT, particularly in the orbitofrontal cortex, explained additional variance in HRV, beyond the effects of aging. This pattern of results may suggest that the decline in HRV with increasing age is related to a decline in orbitofrontal CT. These effects were independent of sex and specific to HRV; with no significant association between CT and HR. Greater CT across the adult lifespan may be vital for the maintenance of healthy cardiac regulation via the ANS-or greater cardiac vagal activity as indirectly reflected in HRV may slow brain atrophy. Findings reveal an important association between CT and cardiac parasympathetic activity with implications for healthy aging and longevity that should be studied further in longitudinal research.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
The field of cognitive aging has seen considerable advances in describing the linguistic and semantic changes that happen during the adult life span to uncover the structure of the mental lexicon (i.e., the mental repository of lexical and conceptual representations). Nevertheless, there is still debate concerning the sources of these changes, including the role of environmental exposure and several cognitive mechanisms associated with learning, representation, and retrieval of information. We review the current status of research in this field and outline a framework that promises to assess the contribution of both ecological and psychological aspects to the aging lexicon.
A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
(2019)
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth’s biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented “next-generation biomonitoring” by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
The series of novel 3,3′-bis(trisarylsilyl)- and 3,3′-bis(arylalkylsilyl)-substituted binaphtholate rare-earth-metal complexes 2a–i (SiR3 = Si(o-biphenylene)Ph (a), SiCyPh2 (b), Si-t-BuPh2 (c), Si(i-Pr)3 (d), SiCy2Ph (e), Si(2-tolyl)Ph2 (f), Si(4-t-Bu-C6H4)3 (g), Si(4-MeO-C6H4)Ph2 (h), SiBnPh2 (i)) have been prepared via arene elimination from [Ln(o-C6H4CH2NMe2)3] (Ln = Y, Lu) and the corresponding 3,3′-bis(silyl)-substituted binaphthol. The complexes exhibit high catalytic activity in the hydroamination/cyclization of aminoalkenes, with activities exceeding 1000 h–1 for (R)-2f-Ln, (R)-2g-Ln, and (R)-2h-Ln in the cyclization of 2,2-diphenylpent-4-enylamine (3a) at 25 °C, while the rigid dibenzosilole-substituted complexes (R)-2a-Ln and the triisopropylsilyl-substituted complexes (R)-2d-Ln exhibited the lowest activity in the range of 150–270 h–1. Catalysts (R)-2b-Lu, (R)-2c-Lu, (R)-2f-Lu, and (R)-2i-Lu provide the highest selectivities for the majority of the substrates, while the yttrium congeners are usually less selective. The highest enantioselectivities of 96% ee were observed using (R)-2a-Lu and (R)-2c-Lu in the cyclization of (4E)-2,2,5-triphenylpent-4-enylamine (9). The reactions show apparently zero-order rate dependence on substrate concentration and first-order rate dependence on catalyst concentration, with some reactions exhibiting a slightly accelerated rate at high conversion due to a shift in the equilibrium between a less active, higher coordinate catalyst species in favor of a more active, lower coordinate species as a result of weaker binding of the hydroamination product in comparison to the aminoalkene substrate. The shift in equilibrium from the higher to the lower coordinate species is also entropically favored at elevated temperatures, which results in an unusual increase in selectivity in the cyclization of 2,2-dimethylpent-4-enylamine (3d), presumably due to a higher selectivity of the lower coordinate catalyst species. All binaphtholate yttrium complexes, except (R)-2a-Y, are catalytically active in the intermolecular hydroamination of benzylamines with terminal alkenes. The highest selectivity of 66% ee was observed for the reaction of benzylamine with 4-phenyl-1-butene using (R)-2h-Y at 110 °C.
Fullerene-based acceptors have dominated organic solar cells for almost two decades. It is only within the last few years that alternative acceptors rival their dominance, introducing much more flexibility in the optoelectronic properties of these material blends. However, a fundamental physical understanding of the processes that drive charge separation at organic heterojunctions is still missing, but urgently needed to direct further material improvements. Here a combined experimental and theoretical approach is used to understand the intimate mechanisms by which molecular structure contributes to exciton dissociation, charge separation, and charge recombination at the donor-acceptor (D-A) interface. Model systems comprised of polythiophene-based donor and rylene diimide-based acceptor polymers are used and a detailed density functional theory (DFT) investigation is performed. The results point to the roles that geometric deformations and direct-contact intermolecular polarization play in establishing a driving force ( energy gradient) for the optoelectronic processes taking place at the interface. A substantial impact for this driving force is found to stem from polymer deformations at the interface, a finding that can clearly lead to new design approaches in the development of the next generation of conjugated polymers and small molecules.