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Aus dem Inhalt dieser Ausgabe: BEITRÄGE: Elmar Henrich: Die Luccheser Bergmilizen: Bauernmobilisierung und Bauernmilitanz in einer Renaissancerepublik des späten 16. und frühen 17. Jahrhunderts, Jutta Nowosadtko: Der „Vampyrus Serviensis“ und sein Habitat: Impressionen von der österreichischen Militärgrenze, PROJEKTE: Thomas Fuchs, Ulrich Kandolf: Die Wehrbereichsbibliothek II (Hannover) in der Niedersächsischen Landesbibliothek, Sascha Möbius: „... Der blutdürstige Degen drung ihnen die Feder so gar aus der Hand.“ : Unruhe und Krieg in der Chronik des Lübecker Schreiners Heinrich Christian Schulze (1728-1734) (Dissertationsprojekt), Ernst Riegg: Die Erinnerungskultur der Stadt vom Spätmittelalter bis zum 18. Jahrhundert : ihre Erforschung anhand der städtischen Chronistik (DFG-Projekt, Potsdam), BERICHTE: Gregor Maier: „Krieg und Umbruch um 1800“ (12. bis 13. März 2004 Tübingen), Olaf Jessen: „Zur Geschichte des militärischen Denkens vom späten Mittelalter bis zum 20. Jahrhundert“ (29. bis 30. April 2004 Stuttgart), Cornel Zwierlein: „Militär und Gesellschaft im Europa der Neuzeit“ (13. bis 17. September 2004 Trient), Sonja Neubauer: „Christentum und Krieg in der Moderne“ (26. bis 29. September 2004 Weingarten), Protokoll der Mitgliederversammlung vom 29.10.2004, REZENSIONEN: Elke Anna Werner: Peter Burke, Augenzeugenschaft : Bilder als historische Quellen, Berlin 2003, Andrea Pühringer: Steffen Martus, Marina Münkler, Werner Röcke (Hrsg.), Schlachtfelder : Codierung von Gewalt im medialen Wandel, Berlin 2003, Arbeitskreis Historische Bildforschung (Hrsg.): Der Krieg im Bild – Bilder vom Krieg : Hamburger Beiträge zur Historischen Bildforschung, Frankfurt/Main 2003, Maren Lorenz: Johann Carl Wilhelm Moehsen, Betrachtungen über die Berlinischen Selbstmörder unter den Soldaten : nach dem Manuskript aus den Materialien der Berliner Mittwochsgesellschaft, hrsg. von Hans-Uwe Lammel, Hannover 2004, Thomas Wollschläger: Michael Römling, Ein Heer ist ein großes gefräßiges Tier : Soldaten in spanischen und kaiserlichen Diensten und die Bevölkerung der vom Krieg betroffenen Gebiete in Italien zwischen 1509 und 1530, Göttingen 2002, Jörg Muth: Jürgen Kloosterhuis (Bearb.), Legendäre „lange Kerls“. Quellen zur Regimentskultur der Königsgrenadiere Friedrich Wilhelms I., 1713-1740, Berlin 2003, Martin Winter: Alfred Messerli, Adolf Muschg (Hrsg.), Schreibsucht. Autobiographische Schriften des Pietisten Ulrich Bräker (1735-1798), Göttingen 2004, Michael Kleinen, Sascha Möbius: Stig Förster, Markus Pöhlmann, Dierk Walter (Hrsg.), Schlachten der Weltgeschichte : von Salamis bis Sinai, München 2001, ANKÜNDIGUNGEN: 11. Forschungskolloquium: Neuere Forschungen zur Militärgeschichte, Universität Potsdam, Winersemester 2004/05, AMG-Tagung: „Krieg, Militär und Migration in der Frühen Neuzeit“ (17. bis 19. November 2005 Tübingen), Aufruf: Werner-Hahlweg-Preis 2006 für Militärgeschichte und Wehrwissenschaften, Michael Hochedlinger: Aufruf: Habsburgs Generale. Die kaiserliche und kaiserlich-königliche Generalität 1618-1815 : ein biographisches Lexikon
Glacial-interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (> 40 degrees N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.
Stochastic information, to be understood as "information gained by the application of stochastic methods", is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate. This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA. The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes "redder", i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the "maneuvering space" humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider "probabilistic uncertainty", i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability. As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2°C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.
How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict. <br /> Deglacial forest expansion in the Northern Hemisphere poses a conundrum: Model results agree with the climate signal but are several millennia ahead of reconstructed forest dynamics. The underlying causes remain unsolved.