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The deterministic calculation of earthquake scenarios using complete waveform modelling plays an increasingly important role in estimating shaking hazard in seismically active regions. Here we apply 3-D numerical modelling of seismic wave propagation to M 6+ earthquake scenarios in the area of the Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the seismically most active regions in central Europe. Using a 3-D basin model derived from geology, borehole information and seismic experiments, we aim at demonstrating the strong dependence of ground shaking on hypocentre location and basin structure. The simulations are carried out up to frequencies of ca. 1 Hz. As expected, the basin structure leads to strong lateral variations in peak ground motion, amplification and shaking duration. Depending on source-basin-receiver geometry, the effects correlate with basin depth and the slope of the basin flanks; yet, the basin also affects peak ground motion and estimated shaking hazard thereof outside the basin. Comparison with measured seismograms for one of the earthquakes shows that some of the main characteristics of the wave motion are reproduced. Cumulating the derived seismic intensities from the three modelled earthquake scenarios leads to a predominantly basin correlated intensity distribution for our study area
Ground ice and sedimentary records of a pingo exposure reveal insights into Holocene permafrost, landscape and climate dynamics. Early to mid-Holocene thermokarst lake deposits contain rich floral and faunal paleoassemblages, which indicate lake shrinkage and decreasing summer temperatures (chironomid-based T-July) from 10.5 to 3.5 cal kyr BP with the warmest period between 10.5 and 8 cal kyr BP. Talik refreezing and pingo growth started about 3.5 cal kyr BP after disappearance of the lake. The isotopic composition of the pingo ice (delta O-18 - 17.1 +/- 0.6 parts per thousand, delta D -144.5 +/- 3.4 parts per thousand, slope 5.85, deuterium excess -7.7 +/- 1.5 parts per thousand) point to the initial stage of closed-system freezing captured in the record. A differing isotopic composition within the massive ice body was found (delta O-18 - 21.3 +/- 1.4 parts per thousand, delta D -165 +/- 11.5 parts per thousand, slope 8.13, deuterium excess 4.9 +/- 3.2 parts per thousand), probably related to the infill of dilation cracks by surface water with quasi-meteoric signature. Currently inactive syngenetic ice wedges formed in the thermokarst basin after lake drainage. The pingo preserves traces of permafrost response to climate variations in terms of ground-ice degradation (thermokarst) during the early and mid-Holocene, and aggradation (wedge-ice and pingo-ice growth) during the late Holocene.
The membrane and actin cortex of a motile cell can autonomously differentiate into two states, one typical of the front, the other of the tail. On the substrate-attached surface of Dictyostelium discoideum cells, dynamic patterns of front-like and tail-like states are generated that are well suited to monitor transitions between these states. To image large-scale pattern dynamics independently of boundary effects, we produced giant cells by electric-pulse-induced cell fusion. In these cells, actin waves are coupled to the front and back of phosphatidylinositol (3,4,5)-trisphosphate (PIP3)-rich bands that have a finite width. These composite waves propagate across the plasma membrane of the giant cells with undiminished velocity. After any disturbance, the bands of PIP3 return to their intrinsic width. Upon collision, the waves locally annihilate each other and change direction; at the cell border they are either extinguished or reflected. Accordingly, expanding areas of progressing PIP3 synthesis become unstable beyond a critical radius, their center switching from a front-like to a tail-like state. Our data suggest that PIP3 patterns in normal-sized cells are segments of the self-organizing patterns that evolve in giant cells.
We analyze the variability in the x-ray lightcurves of the black hole candidate Cygnus X-1 by linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods. While a linear model describes the overall second order properties of the observed data well, surrogate data analysis reveals a significant deviation from linearity. We discuss the relation between shot noise models usually applied to analyze these data and linear stochastic autoregressive models. We debate statistical and interpretational issues of surrogate data testing for the present context. Finally, we suggest a combination of tools from linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods as a procedure to test the predictions of astrophysical models on observed data.