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Background: Hybrids represent a cornerstone in the success story of breeding programs. The fundamental principle underlying this success is the phenomenon of hybrid vigour, or heterosis. It describes an advantage of the offspring as compared to the two parental lines with respect to parameters such as growth and resistance against abiotic or biotic stress. Dominance, overdominance or epistasis based models are commonly used explanations. Conclusion/Significance: The heterosis level is clearly a function of the combination of the parents used for offspring production. This results in a major challenge for plant breeders, as usually several thousand combinations of parents have to be tested for identifying the best combinations. Thus, any approach to reliably predict heterosis levels based on properties of the parental lines would be highly beneficial for plant breeding. Methodology/Principal Findings: Recently, genetic data have been used to predict heterosis. Here we show that a combination of parental genetic and metabolic markers, identified via feature selection and minimum-description-length based regression methods, significantly improves the prediction of biomass heterosis in resulting offspring. These findings will help furthering our understanding of the molecular basis of heterosis, revealing, for instance, the presence of nonlinear genotype-phenotype relationships. In addition, we describe a possible approach for accelerated selection in plant breeding.
Prediction of hybrid biomass in Arabidopsis thaliana by selected parental SNP and metabolic markers
(2009)
A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population, derived from two Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, and the corresponding testcrosses with these two original accessions were used for the development and validation of machine learning models to predict the biomass of hybrids. Genetic and metabolic information of the RILs served as predictors. Feature selection reduced the number of variables (genetic and metabolic markers) in the models by more than 80% without impairing the predictive power. Thus, potential biomarkers have been revealed. Metabolites were shown to bear information on inherited macroscopic phenotypes. This proof of concept could be interesting for breeders. The example population exhibits substantial mid-parent biomass heterosis. The results of feature selection could therefore be used to shed light on the origin of heterosis. In this respect, mainly dominance effects were detected.
Prediction of hybrid biomass in Arabidopsis thaliana by selected parental SNP and metabolic markers
(2009)
A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population, derived from two Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, and the corresponding testcrosses with these two original accessions were used for the development and validation of machine learning models to predict the biomass of hybrids. Genetic and metabolic information of the RILs served as predictors. Feature selection reduced the number of variables (genetic and metabolic markers) in the models by more than 80% without impairing the predictive power. Thus, potential biomarkers have been revealed. Metabolites were shown to bear information on inherited macroscopic phenotypes. This proof of concept could be interesting for breeders. The example population exhibits substantial mid-parent biomass heterosis. The results of feature selection could therefore be used to shed light on the origin of heterosis. In this respect, mainly dominance effects were detected.
We propose a network structure-based model for heterosis, and investigate it relying on metabolite profiles from Arabidopsis. A simple feed-forward two-layer network model (the Steinbuch matrix) is used in our conceptual approach. It allows for directly relating structural network properties with biological function. Interpreting heterosis as increased adaptability, our model predicts that the biological networks involved show increasing connectivity of regulatory interactions. A detailed analysis of metabolite profile data reveals that the increasing-connectivity prediction is true for graphical Gaussian models in our data from early development. This mirrors properties of observed heterotic Arabidopsis phenotypes. Furthermore, the model predicts a limit for increasing hybrid vigor with increasing heterozygosity—a known phenomenon in the literature.
Background
The aggregation of a series of N-of-1 trials presents an innovative and efficient study design, as an alternative to traditional randomized clinical trials. Challenges for the statistical analysis arise when there is carry-over or complex dependencies of the treatment effect of interest.
Methods
In this study, we evaluate and compare methods for the analysis of aggregated N-of-1 trials in different scenarios with carry-over and complex dependencies of treatment effects on covariates. For this, we simulate data of a series of N-of-1 trials for Chronic Nonspecific Low Back Pain based on assumed causal relationships parameterized by directed acyclic graphs. In addition to existing statistical methods such as regression models, Bayesian Networks, and G-estimation, we introduce a carry-over adjusted parametric model (COAPM).
Results
The results show that all evaluated existing models have a good performance when there is no carry-over and no treatment dependence. When there is carry-over, COAPM yields unbiased and more efficient estimates while all other methods show some bias in the estimation. When there is known treatment dependence, all approaches that are capable to model it yield unbiased estimates. Finally, the efficiency of all methods decreases slightly when there are missing values, and the bias in the estimates can also increase.
Conclusions
This study presents a systematic evaluation of existing and novel approaches for the statistical analysis of a series of N-of-1 trials. We derive practical recommendations which methods may be best in which scenarios.