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The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall
(2018)
Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520–780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580–780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during ‘dry’ extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability.
1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO2 level increase in combination with changes in inter- and intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.
Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment.
Our findings indicate that with regard to fire management a clear distinction between mesic and more arid savannas is necessary: While the frequency of fires is of relevance for mesic savannas, we recommend a fire management focussing on the timing of fire for semi-arid and arid savannas. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Savanna systems exhibit a high plant functional diversity. While aridity and livestock grazing intensity have been widely discussed as drivers of savanna vegetation composition, physical soil properties have received less attention. Since savannas can show local differences in soil properties, these might act as environmental filters and affect plant diversity and ecosystem functioning at the patch scale. However, research on the link between savanna vegetation diversity and ecosystem function is widely missing. 2. In this study, we aim at understanding the impact of local heterogeneity in soil conditions on plant diversity and on ecosystem functions. For this, we used the ecohydrological savanna model EcoHyD. The model simulates the fate of multiple plant functional types and their interactions with local biotic and abiotic conditions. We applied the model to a set of different landscapes under a wide range of livestock grazing and precipitation scenarios to assess the impact of local heterogeneity in soil conditions on the composition and diversity of plant functional types and on ecosystem functions. 3. Comparisons between homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes revealed that landscape soil heterogeneity allowed for a higher functional diversity of vegetation under conditions of high competition, i.e. scenarios of low grazing stress. However, landscape heterogeneity did not have this effect under low grazing stress in combination with high mean annual precipitation. Further, landscape heterogeneity led to a higher community biomass, especially for lower rainfall conditions, but also dependent on grazing stress. Total transpiration of the plant community decreased in heterogeneous landscapes under arid conditions. 4. This study highlights that local soil conditions interact with precipitation and grazing in driving savanna vegetation. It clearly shows that vegetation diversity and resulting ecosystem functioning can be driven by landscape heterogeneity. We therefore suggest that future research on ecosystem functioning of savanna systems should focus on the links between local environmental conditions via plant functional diversity to ecosystem functioning.
Precipitation and land use in terms of livestock grazing have been identified as two of the most important drivers structuring the vegetation composition of semi-arid and arid savannas. Savanna research on the impact of these drivers has widely applied the so-called plant functional type (PFT) approach, grouping the vegetation into two or three broad types (here called meta-PFTs): woody plants and grasses, which are sometimes divided into perennial and annual grasses. However, little is known about the response of functional traits within these coarse types towards water availability or livestock grazing. In this study, we extended an existing eco-hydrological savanna vegetation model to capture trait diversity within the three broad meta-PFTs to assess the effects of both grazing and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on trait composition along a gradient of both drivers. Our results show a complex pattern of trait responses to grazing and aridity. The response differs for the three meta-PFTs. From our findings, we derive that trait responses to grazing and aridity for perennial grasses are similar, as suggested by the convergence model for grazing and aridity. However, we also see that this only holds for simulations below a MAP of 500 mm. This combined with the finding that trait response differs between the three meta-PFTs leads to the conclusion that there is no single, universal trait or set of traits determining the response to grazing and aridity. We finally discuss how simulation models including trait variability within meta-PFTs are necessary to understand ecosystem responses to environmental drivers, both locally and globally and how this perspective will help to extend conceptual frameworks of other ecosystems to savanna research.
Ecohydrological models of savanna rangeland systems typically aggregate plant species to very broad plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by their trait combinations. However, neglecting trait variability within modelled PFTs may hamper our ability to understand the effects of climate or land use change on vegetation composition and thus on ecosystem processes. In this study we extended and parameterized the ecohydrological savanna model EcoHyD, which originally considered only three broad PFTs (perennial grasses, annuals and shrubs). We defined several sub-types of perennial grasses (sub-PFTs) to assess the effect of environmental conditions on vegetation composition and ecosystem functioning. These perennial sub-PFTs are defined by altering distinct trait values based on a trade-off approach for (i) the longevity of plants and (ii) grazing-resistance. We find that increasing grazing intensity leads to a dominance of the fast-growing and short-lived perennial grass type as well as a dominance of the poorly palatable grass type. Increasing precipitation dampens the magnitude of grazing-induced shifts between perennial grass types. The diversification of perennial grass PFTs generally increases the total perennial grass cover and ecosystem water use efficiency, but does not protect the community from shrub encroachment. We thus demonstrate that including trait heterogeneity into ecosystem models will allow for an improved representation of ecosystem responses to environmental change in savannas. This will help to better assess how ecosystem functions might be impacted under future conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.