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The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021–2050) and far-term period (2071–2100) with reference to 1976–2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021–2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071–2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.
BISSINGER, V.; TITTEL, J.: Process rates and growth limiting factors of planktonic algae (Chlamydomonas sp.) from extremely acidic (pH 2,5 - 3) mining lakes in Germany ; BORK, H.-R. et al.: Erodierte Autos und Brunnen in Oregon, USA ; BRONSTERT, A. et al.: Bewirtschaftunsmöglichkeiten im Einzugsgebiet der Havel ; JELTSCH, F. et al.: Beweidung als Degradationsfaktor in ariden und semiariden Weidesystemen ; JELTSCH, F. et al.: Entstehung und Bedeutung räumlicher Vegetationsstrukturen in Trockensavannen: Baum-Graskoexistenz und Artenvielfalt ; JESSEL, B. et al.: Bodenbewertung für Planungs- und Zulassungsverfahren in Brandenburg ; JESSEL, B.; ZSCHALICH, A.: Erarbeitung von Ausgleichs- und Ersatzmaßnahmen für die Wert- und Funktionselemente des Landschaftsbildes ; RÖßLING, H. et al.: Umsetzung von Ausgleichs- und Ersatzmaßnahmen beim Ausbau der Bundesautobahn A 9 ; SPINDLER, J.; GAEDKE, U.: Estimating production in plankton food webs from biomass size spectra and allometric relationships ; TIELBÖRGER, K. et al.: Sukzessionsprozesse in einem Sanddünengebiet nach Ausschluß von Beweidung ; TIELBÖRGER, K. et al.: Populationsdynamische Funktionen von Ausbreitung und Dormanz ; TIELBÖRGER, K. et al.: Raum-zeitliche Populationsdynamik von einjährigen Wüstenpflanzen ; TITTEL, J. et al.: Ressourcennutzung und -weitergabe im planktischen Nahrungsnetz eines extrem sauren (pH 2,7) Tagebausees ; WALLSCHLÄGER, D.; WIEGLEB, G.: Offenland-Management auf ehemaligen und in Nutzung befindlichen Truppenübungsplätzen im pleistozänen Flachland Nordostdeutschlands: Naturschutzfachliche Grundlagen und praktische Anwendungen ; WEITHOFF, G.; GAEDKE, U.: Planktische Räuber-Beute-Systeme: Experimentelle Untersuchung von ökologischen Synchronisationen
BLUMENSTEIN, O.: Investigation of Environmental Quality and Social Structures in a Mining Area in the North West Province of South Africa ; BRONSTERT, A.; GÜNTNER, A.: A large-scale hydrological model for the semi-arid environment of north-eastern Brazil ; BRONSTERT, A. et al.: Hochwasserproblematik und der Zusammenhang mit Landnutzungs- und Klimaänderungen ; FRIEDRICH, S.: Vergleichende Untersuchungen zur Wasserqualität des anfallenden Regenwassers an den 14 Regenwassereinläufen der Stadt Potsdam ; GELDMACHER, K. et al.: Bodenzerstörung im Palouse, Washington, USA ; ITZEROTT, S.; KADEN, K.: Modellierung der flächenhaften Verdunstung im Gebiet der Unteren Havel ; KNÖSCHE, R.: Das remobilisierbare Nährstoffpotential in Augewässersedimenten einer Tieflandflußaue
Glaciated high-alpine areas are fundamentally altered by climate change, with well-known implications for hydrology, e.g., due to glacier retreat, longer snow-free periods, and more frequent and intense summer rainstorms. While knowledge on how these hydrological changes will propagate to suspended sediment dynamics is still scarce, it is needed to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand the processes and source areas most relevant to sediment dynamics, we analyzed discharge and sediment dynamics in high temporal resolution as well as their patterns on several spatial scales, which to date few studies have done.
We used a nested catchment setup in the Upper Ötztal in Tyrol, Austria, where high-resolution (15 min) time series of discharge and suspended sediment concentrations are available for up to 15 years (2006–2020). The catchments of the gauges in Vent, Sölden and Tumpen range from 100 to almost 800 km2 with 10 % to 30 % glacier cover and span an elevation range of 930 to 3772 m a.s.l. We analyzed discharge and suspended sediment yields (SSY), their distribution in space, their seasonality and spatial differences therein, and the relative importance of short-term events. We complemented our analysis by linking the observations to satellite-based snow cover maps, glacier inventories, mass balances and precipitation data.
Our results indicate that the areas above 2500 m a.s.l., characterized by glacier tongues and the most recently deglaciated areas, are crucial for sediment generation in all sub-catchments. This notion is supported by the synchronous spring onset of sediment export at the three gauges, which coincides with snowmelt above 2500 m but lags behind spring discharge onsets. This points at a limitation of suspended sediment supply as long as the areas above 2500 m are snow-covered. The positive correlation of annual SSY with glacier cover (among catchments) and glacier mass balances (within a catchment) further supports the importance of the glacier-dominated areas. The analysis of short-term events showed that summer precipitation events were associated with peak sediment concentrations and yields but on average accounted for only 21 % of the annual SSY in the headwaters. These results indicate that under current conditions, thermally induced sediment export (through snow and glacier melt) is dominant in the study area.
Our results extend the scientific knowledge on current hydro-sedimentological conditions in glaciated high-alpine areas and provide a baseline for studies on projected future changes in hydro-sedimentological system dynamics.