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Giant earthquakes with magnitudes above 8.5 occur only in subduction zones. Despite the developments made in observing large subduction zone earthquakes with geophysical instruments, the factors controlling the maximum size of these earthquakes are still poorly understood. Previous studies have suggested the importance of slab shape, roughness of the plate interface contact, state of the strain in the upper plate, thickness of sediments filling the trenches, and subduction rate. Here, we present 2-D cross-scale numerical models of seismic cycles for subduction zones with various geometries, subduction channel friction configurations, and subduction rates. We found that low-angle subduction and thick sediments in the subduction channel are the necessary conditions for generating giant earthquakes, while the subduction rate has a negligible effect. We suggest that these key parameters determine the maximum magnitude of a subduction earthquake by controlling the seismogenic zone width and smoothness of the subduction interface. This interpretation supports previous studies that are based upon observations and scaling laws. Our modeling results also suggest that low static friction in the sediment-filled subduction channel results in neutral or moderate compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low-angle subduction zones hosting giant earthquakes. These modeling results agree well with observations for the largest earthquakes. Based on our models we predict maximum magnitudes of subduction earthquakes worldwide, demonstrating the fit to magnitudes of all giant earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries and good agreement with the predictions based on statistical analyses of observations.
Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old.
It has recently been demonstrated that the interaction of a mantle plume with sufficiently old oceanic lithosphere can initiate subduction. However, the existence of large lithospheric heterogeneities, such as a buoyant plateau, in proximity to a rising plume head may potentially hinder the formation of a new subduction zone. Here, we investigate this scenario by means of 3-D numerical thermomechanical modeling. We explore how plume-lithosphere interaction is affected by lithospheric age, relative location of plume head and plateau border, and the strength of the oceanic crust. Our numerical experiments suggest four different geodynamic regimes: (a) oceanic trench formation, (b) circular oceanic-plateau trench formation, (c) plateau trench formation, and (d) no trench formation. We show that regardless of the age and crustal strength of the oceanic lithosphere, subduction can initiate when the plume head is either below the plateau border or at a distance less than the plume radius from the plateau edge. Crustal heterogeneity facilitates subduction initiation of old oceanic lithosphere. High crustal strength hampers the formation of a new subduction zone when the plume head is located below a young lithosphere containing a thick and strong plateau. We suggest that plume-plateau interaction in the western margin of the Caribbean could have resulted in subduction initiation when the plume head impinged onto the oceanic lithosphere close to the border between plateau and oceanic crust.
The Earth's biggest magmatic events are believed to originate from massive melting when hot mantle plumes rising from the lowermost mantle reach the base of the lithosphere. Classical models predict large plume heads that cause kilometre-scale surface uplift, and narrow (100 km radius) plume tails that remain in the mantle after the plume head spreads below the lithosphere. However, in many cases, such uplifts and narrow plume tails are not observed. Here using numerical models, we show that the issue can be resolved if major mantle plumes contain up to 15-20% of recycled oceanic crust in a form of dense eclogite, which drastically decreases their buoyancy and makes it depth dependent. We demonstrate that, despite their low buoyancy, large enough thermochemical plumes can rise through the whole mantle causing only negligible surface uplift. Their tails are bulky (4200 km radius) and remain in the upper mantle for 100 millions of years.
Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during lithospheric shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical models to demonstrate that orogenic crustal thickness and foreland lithospheric thickness significantly control the shortening mode in the foreland. Pure-shear shortening occurs when the orogenic crust is not thicker than the foreland crust or thick, but the foreland lithosphere is thin (<70-80 km, as in the Puna foreland case). Conversely, simple-shear shortening, characterized by foreland underthrusting beneath the orogen, arises when the orogenic crust is much thicker. This thickened crust results in high gravitational potential energy in the orogen, which triggers the migration of deformation to the foreland under further shortening. Our models present fully thick-skinned, fully thin-skinned, and intermediate tectonic styles in the foreland. The first tectonics forms in a pure-shear shortening mode whereas the others require a simple-shear mode and the presence of thick (>similar to 4 km) sediments that are mechanically weak (friction coefficient <similar to 0.05) or weakened rapidly during deformation. The formation of fully thin-skinned tectonics in thick and weak foreland sediments, as in the Subandean Ranges, requires the strength of the orogenic upper lithosphere to be less than one-third as strong as that of the foreland upper lithosphere. Our models successfully reproduce foreland deformation patterns in the Central and Southern Andes and the Laramide province.
The formation of the Central Andes dates back to similar to 50 Ma, but its most pronounced episode, including the growth of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau and pulsatile tectonic shortening phases, occurred within the last 25 Ma.
The reason for this evolution remains unexplained. Using geodynamic numerical modeling we infer that the primary cause of the pulses of tectonic shortening and growth of the Central Andes is the changing geometry of the subducted Nazca plate, and particularly the steepening of the mid-mantle slab segment which results in a slowing down of the trench retreat and subsequent increase in shortening of the advancing South America plate.
This steepening first happens after the end of the flat slab episode at similar to 25 Ma, and later during the buckling and stagnation of the slab in the mantle transition zone. Processes that mechanically weaken the lithosphere of the South America plate, as suggested in previous studies, enhance the intensity of the shortening events.
These processes include delamination of the mantle lithosphere and weakening of foreland sediments.
Our new modeling results are consistent with the timing and amplitude of the deformation from geological data in the Central Andes at the Altiplano latitude.
Plain Language Summary
The Central Andes is a subduction-type orogeny that formed as a result of the interaction between the Nazca oceanic plate and the South American continental plate over the last 50 million years. Growth of the Andes is primarily the result of crustal shortening. Nevertheless, "geological" data compiled from previous studies have shown that phases of drastic pulsatile shortening occur at 15 and 5 Ma.
In this study, we used high-resolution 2D numerical geodynamic simulations to investigate the link between oceanic and continental plate dynamics and their interaction. We find that when the oceanic plate steepens in the mantle transition zone, the trench retreat is hindered. Coupled with the weakening of the continental plate through the slab flattening and subsequent delamination of the lithospheric mantle, this leads to pulsatile shortening phases of a magnitude equivalent to that suggested by the data.
The magnitude of earthquakes on continental normal faults rarely exceeds 7.0 Mw. However, because of their vicinity to large population centers they can be highly destructive.
Long recurrence time, relatively small deformations, and limited observations hinder our understanding of the deformation patterns and mechanisms controlling the magnitude of events.
Here, this problem is addressed with 2D thermomechanical modeling of normal fault seismic cycles.
The 2020 Samos, Greece Mw7.0 earthquake is used as an example as it is one of the largest and most studied continental normal fault earthquakes. The modeling approach employs visco-elasto-plastic rheology, compressibility, free surface, and a rate-and-state friction law for the fault.
Modeling of the Samos earthquake suggests the pore fluid pressure ratio on the fault ranges from 0 to 0.7. The model demonstrates that most of the deformation during interseismic and coseismic periods, besides on the fault, occurs in the hanging wall and footwall below the seismogenic part of the fault. The largest vertical surface displacement during the earthquake is the subsidence of the hanging wall in the vicinity of the fault, while the uplift of the footwall and remote part of the hanging wall is significantly smaller.
Modeling of the seismic cycles on normal faults with different setups shows the dependency of the magnitude on the thermal profile and dipping angle of the fault; low heat flow and low dipping angle are favorable conditions for the largest events, while steep normal faults in the areas of high heat flow tend to have the smallest magnitudes.
Teleseismic tomography reveals no signature of the Dead Sea Transform in the upper mantle structure
(2006)
We present results of a tomographic inversion of teleseismic data recorded at 48 stations of a temporary network which was installed in the area of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) and operated for 1 yr in the framework of the multidisciplinary DESERT Project. The 3366 teleseismic P and PKP phases from 135 events were hand picked and corrected for surface topography and crustal thickness. The inversion shows pronounced low-velocity anomalies in the crust, beneath the DST, which are consistent with recent results from local-source tomography. These anomalies are likely related to the young sediments and fractured rocks in the fault zone. The deeper the retrieved anomalies are quite weak. Most prominent is the high-velocity strip-like anomaly striking SE-NW. We attribute this anomaly to the inherited heterogeneity of lithospheric structure, with a possible contribution by the shallow Precambrian basement east of the DST and to lower crustal heterogeneity reported in this region by other seismic studies. We do not observe reliable signature of the DST in the upper mantle structure. Some weak indications of low-velocity anomalies in the upper mantle beneath the DST may well result from the down-smearing of the strong upper crustal anomalies. We also see very little topography of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary beneath the DST, which would generate significant horizontal velocity variations. These results are consistent with predictions from a recent thereto-mechanical model of the DST. Our tomographic model provides some indication of hot mantle flow from the deeper upper mantle rooted in the region of the Red Sea. However, resolution tests show that this anomaly may well be beyond resolution of the model. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics-How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?-seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/ refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3-5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from 26 km at the Mediterranean to 39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries
We study segregation of the subducted oceanic crust (OC) at the core-mantle boundary and its ability to accumulate and form large thermochemical piles (such as the seismically observed Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs)). Our high-resolution numerical simulations of thermochemical mantle convection suggest that the longevity of LLSVPs for up to three billion years, and possibly longer, can be ensured by a balance in the rate of segregation of high-density OC material to the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the rate of its entrainment away from the CMB by mantle upwellings. For a range of parameters tested in this study, a large-scale compositional anomaly forms at the CMB, similar in shape and size to the LLSVPs. Neutrally buoyant thermochemical piles formed by mechanical stirringwhere thermally induced negative density anomaly is balanced by the presence of a fraction of dense anomalous materialbest resemble the geometry of LLSVPs. Such neutrally buoyant piles tend to emerge and survive for at least 3Gyr in simulations with quite different parameters. We conclude that for a plausible range of values of density anomaly of OC material in the lower mantleit is likely that it segregates to the CMB, gets mechanically mixed with the ambient material, and forms neutrally buoyant large-scale compositional anomalies similar in shape to the LLSVPs.