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RNA folding is assumed to be a hierarchical process. The secondary structure of an RNA molecule, signified by base-pairing and stacking interactions between the paired bases, is formed first. Subsequently, the RNA molecule adopts an energetically favorable three-dimensional conformation in the structural space determined mainly by the rotational degrees of freedom associated with the backbone of regions of unpaired nucleotides (loops). To what extent the backbone conformation of RNA loops also results from interactions within the local sequence context or rather follows global optimization constraints alone has not been addressed yet. Because the majority of base stacking interactions are exerted locally, a critical influence of local sequence on local structure appears plausible. Thus, local loop structure ought to be predictable, at least in part, from the local sequence context alone. To test this hypothesis, we used Random Forests on a nonredundant data set of unpaired nucleotides extracted from 97 X-ray structures from the Protein Data Bank (PDB) to predict discrete backbone angle conformations given by the discretized eta/theta-pseudo-torsional space. Predictions on balanced sets with four to six conformational classes using local sequence information yielded average accuracies of up to 55%, thus significantly better than expected by chance (17%-25%). Bases close to the central nucleotide appear to be most tightly linked to its conformation. Our results suggest that RNA loop structure does not only depend on long-range base-pairing interactions; instead, it appears that local sequence context exerts a significant influence on the formation of the local loop structure.
Climate models predict an increased likelihood of seasonal droughts for many areas of the world. Breeding for drought tolerance could be accelerated by marker-assisted selection. As a basis for marker identification, we studied the genetic variance, predictability of field performance and potential costs of tolerance in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.). Potato produces high calories per unit of water invested, but is drought-sensitive. In 14 independent pot or field trials, 34 potato cultivars were grown under optimal and reduced water supply to determine starch yield. In an artificial dataset, we tested several stress indices for their power to distinguish tolerant and sensitive genotypes independent of their yield potential. We identified the deviation of relative starch yield from the experimental median (DRYM) as the most efficient index. DRYM corresponded qualitatively to the partial least square model-based metric of drought stress tolerance in a stress effect model. The DRYM identified significant tolerance variation in the European potato cultivar population to allow tolerance breeding and marker identification. Tolerance results from pot trials correlated with those from field trials but predicted field performance worse than field growth parameters. Drought tolerance correlated negatively with yield under optimal conditions in the field. The distribution of yield data versus DRYM indicated that tolerance can be combined with average yield potentials, thus circumventing potential yield penalties in tolerance breeding.