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Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories
(2021)
Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individualproteins are routinely garnered insingle-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies.They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells.Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data.Such time-series are most typically evaluated in terms of time-averaged mean-squareddisplacements (TAMSDs), which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Theirstatistical properties are different for differentphysical stochastic processes, thus allowing us toextract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of thestatistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implementand computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the TAMSD from itsensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations forBrownian motion (BM) to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets.By comparing the probability of deviations fordifferent data sets, we demonstrate how thetheoretical bound for BM reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. Weapply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracerbeads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Ouranalysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effectiveroutine test to reject the BM hypothesis and unveil relevant information on statistical propertiessuch as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations.
A rapidly increasing number of systems is identified in which the stochastic motion of tracer particles follows the Brownian law < r(2)(t)> similar or equal to Dt yet the distribution of particle displacements is strongly non-Gaussian. A central approach to describe this effect is the diffusing diffusivity (DD) model in which the diffusion coefficient itself is a stochastic quantity, mimicking heterogeneities of the environment encountered by the tracer particle on its path. We here quantify in terms of analytical and numerical approaches the first passage behaviour of the DD model. We observe significant modifications compared to Brownian-Gaussian diffusion, in particular that the DD model may have a faster first passage dynamics. Moreover we find a universal crossover point of the survival probability independent of the initial condition.
We consider the emerging dynamics of a separable continuous time random walk (CTRW) in the case when the random walker is biased by a velocity field in a uniformly growing domain. Concrete examples for such domains include growing biological cells or lipid vesicles, biofilms and tissues, but also macroscopic systems such as expanding aquifers during rainy periods, or the expanding Universe. The CTRW in this study can be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive, including the particular case of a Lévy flight. We first consider the case when the velocity field is absent. In the subdiffusive case, we reveal an interesting time dependence of the kurtosis of the particle probability density function. In particular, for a suitable parameter choice, we find that the propagator, which is fat tailed at short times, may cross over to a Gaussian-like propagator. We subsequently incorporate the effect of the velocity field and derive a bi-fractional diffusion-advection equation encoding the time evolution of the particle distribution. We apply this equation to study the mixing kinetics of two diffusing pulses, whose peaks move towards each other under the action of velocity fields acting in opposite directions. This deterministic motion of the peaks, together with the diffusive spreading of each pulse, tends to increase particle mixing, thereby counteracting the peak separation induced by the domain growth. As a result of this competition, different regimes of mixing arise. In the case of Lévy flights, apart from the non-mixing regime, one has two different mixing regimes in the long-time limit, depending on the exact parameter choice: in one of these regimes, mixing is mainly driven by diffusive spreading, while in the other mixing is controlled by the velocity fields acting on each pulse. Possible implications for encounter–controlled reactions in real systems are discussed.
We consider the emerging dynamics of a separable continuous time random walk (CTRW) in the case when the random walker is biased by a velocity field in a uniformly growing domain. Concrete examples for such domains include growing biological cells or lipid vesicles, biofilms and tissues, but also macroscopic systems such as expanding aquifers during rainy periods, or the expanding Universe. The CTRW in this study can be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive, including the particular case of a Lévy flight. We first consider the case when the velocity field is absent. In the subdiffusive case, we reveal an interesting time dependence of the kurtosis of the particle probability density function. In particular, for a suitable parameter choice, we find that the propagator, which is fat tailed at short times, may cross over to a Gaussian-like propagator. We subsequently incorporate the effect of the velocity field and derive a bi-fractional diffusion-advection equation encoding the time evolution of the particle distribution. We apply this equation to study the mixing kinetics of two diffusing pulses, whose peaks move towards each other under the action of velocity fields acting in opposite directions. This deterministic motion of the peaks, together with the diffusive spreading of each pulse, tends to increase particle mixing, thereby counteracting the peak separation induced by the domain growth. As a result of this competition, different regimes of mixing arise. In the case of Lévy flights, apart from the non-mixing regime, one has two different mixing regimes in the long-time limit, depending on the exact parameter choice: in one of these regimes, mixing is mainly driven by diffusive spreading, while in the other mixing is controlled by the velocity fields acting on each pulse. Possible implications for encounter–controlled reactions in real systems are discussed.
We show that the codifference is a useful tool in studying the ergodicity breaking and non-Gaussianity properties of stochastic time series. While the codifference is a measure of dependence that was previously studied mainly in the context of stable processes, we here extend its range of applicability to random-parameter and diffusing-diffusivity models which are important in contemporary physics, biology and financial engineering. We prove that the codifference detects forms of dependence and ergodicity breaking which are not visible from analysing the covariance and correlation functions. We also discuss a related measure of dispersion, which is a nonlinear analogue of the mean squared displacement.
Astandard approach to study time-dependent stochastic processes is the power spectral density (PSD), an ensemble-averaged property defined as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function of the process in the asymptotic limit of long observation times, T → ∞. In many experimental situations one is able to garner only relatively few stochastic time series of finite T, such that practically neither an ensemble average nor the asymptotic limit T → ∞ can be achieved. To accommodate for a meaningful analysis of such finite-length data we here develop the framework of single-trajectory spectral analysis for one of the standard models of anomalous diffusion, scaled Brownian motion.Wedemonstrate that the frequency dependence of the single-trajectory PSD is exactly the same as for standard Brownian motion, which may lead one to the erroneous conclusion that the observed motion is normal-diffusive. However, a distinctive feature is shown to be provided by the explicit dependence on the measurement time T, and this ageing phenomenon can be used to deduce the anomalous diffusion exponent.Wealso compare our results to the single-trajectory PSD behaviour of another standard anomalous diffusion process, fractional Brownian motion, and work out the commonalities and differences. Our results represent an important step in establishing singletrajectory PSDs as an alternative (or complement) to analyses based on the time-averaged mean squared displacement.
Many studies on biological and soft matter systems report the joint presence of a linear mean-squared displacement and a non-Gaussian probability density exhibiting, for instance, exponential or stretched-Gaussian tails. This phenomenon is ascribed to the heterogeneity of the medium and is captured by random parameter models such as ‘superstatistics’ or ‘diffusing diffusivity’. Independently, scientists working in the area of time series analysis and statistics have studied a class of discrete-time processes with similar properties, namely, random coefficient autoregressive models. In this work we try to reconcile these two approaches and thus provide a bridge between physical stochastic processes and autoregressive models.Westart from the basic Langevin equation of motion with time-varying damping or diffusion coefficients and establish the link to random coefficient autoregressive processes. By exploring that link we gain access to efficient statistical methods which can help to identify data exhibiting Brownian yet non-Gaussian diffusion.
We consider the mean first-passage time of a random walker moving in a potential landscape on a finite interval, the starting and end points being at different potentials. From analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations we demonstrate that the mean first-passage time for a piecewise linear curve between these two points is minimized by the introduction of a potential barrier. Due to thermal fluctuations, this barrier may be crossed. It turns out that the corresponding expense for this activation is less severe than the gain from an increased slope towards the end point. In particular, the resulting mean first-passage time is shorter than for a linear potential drop between the two points.
We study generalized anomalous diffusion processes whose diffusion coefficient D(x, t) similar to D-0x(alpha)t(beta) depends on both the position x of the test particle and the process time t. This process thus combines the features of scaled Brownian motion and heterogeneous diffusion parent processes. We compute the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements of this generalized diffusion process. The scaling exponent of the ensemble averaged mean squared displacement is shown to be the product of the critical exponents of the parent processes, and describes both subdiffusive and superdiffusive systems. We quantify the amplitude fluctuations of the time averaged mean squared displacement as function of the length of the time series and the lag time. In particular, we observe a weak ergodicity breaking of this generalized diffusion process: even in the long time limit the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements are strictly disparate. When we start to observe this process some time after its initiation we observe distinct features of ageing. We derive a universal ageing factor for the time averaged mean squared displacement containing all information on the ageing time and the measurement time. External confinement is shown to alter the magnitudes and statistics of the ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacements.
In this paper we analyze correlated continuous-time random walks introduced recently by Tejedor and Metzler (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 082002). We obtain the Langevin equations associated with this process and the corresponding scaling limits of their solutions. We prove that the limit processes are self-similar and display anomalous dynamics. Moreover, we extend the model to include external forces. Our results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations.
Based on the space-fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a delta-sink term, we study the efficiency of random search processes based on Levy flights with power-law distributed jump lengths in the presence of an external drift, for instance, an underwater current, an airflow, or simply the preference of the searcher based on prior experience. While Levy flights turn out to be efficient search processes when the target is upstream relative to the starting point, in the downstream scenario, regular Brownian motion turns out to be advantageous. This is caused by the occurrence of leapovers of Levy flights, due to which Levy flights typically overshoot a point or small interval. Studying the solution of the fractional Fokker-Planck equation, we establish criteria when the combination of the external stream and the initial distance between the starting point and the target favours Levy flights over the regular Brownian search. Contrary to the common belief that Levy flights with a Levy index alpha = 1 (i.e. Cauchy flights) are optimal for sparse targets, we find that the optimal value for alpha may range in the entire interval (1, 2) and explicitly include Brownian motion as the most efficient search strategy overall.
We study the dynamics of polymer chains in a bath of self-propelled particles (SPP) by extensive Langevin dynamics simulations in a two-dimensional model system. Specifically, we analyse the polymer looping properties versus the SPP activity and investigate how the presence of the active particles alters the chain conformational statistics. We find that SPPs tend to extend flexible polymer chains, while they rather compactify stiffer semiflexible polymers, in agreement with previous results. Here we show that higher activities of SPPs yield a higher effective temperature of the bath and thus facilitate the looping kinetics of a passive polymer chain. We explicitly compute the looping probability and looping time in a wide range of the model parameters. We also analyse the motion of a monomeric tracer particle and the polymer's centre of mass in the presence of the active particles in terms of the time averaged mean squared displacement, revealing a giant diffusivity enhancement for the polymer chain via SPP pooling. Our results are applicable to rationalising the dimensions and looping kinetics of biopolymers at constantly fluctuating and often actively driven conditions inside biological cells or in suspensions of active colloidal particles or bacteria cells.
We show that the codifference is a useful tool in studying the ergodicity breaking and non-Gaussianity properties of stochastic time series. While the codifference is a measure of dependence that was previously studied mainly in the context of stable processes, we here extend its range of applicability to random-parameter and diffusing-diffusivity models which are important in contemporary physics, biology and financial engineering. We prove that the codifference detects forms of dependence and ergodicity breaking which are not visible from analysing the covariance and correlation functions. We also discuss a related measure of dispersion, which is a nonlinear analogue of the mean squared displacement.
A single predator charging a herd of prey: effects of self volume and predator-prey decision-making
(2016)
We study the degree of success of a single predator hunting a herd of prey on a two-dimensional square lattice landscape. We explicitly consider the self volume of the prey restraining their dynamics on the lattice. The movement of both predator and prey is chosen to include an intelligent, decision making step based on their respective sighting ranges, the radius in which they can detect the other species (prey cannot recognise each other besides the self volume interaction): after spotting each other the motion of prey and predator turns from a nearest neighbour random walk into directed escape or chase, respectively. We consider a large range of prey densities and sighting ranges and compute the mean first passage time for a predator to catch a prey as well as characterise the effective dynamics of the hunted prey. We find that the prey's sighting range dominates their life expectancy and the predator profits more from a bad eyesight of the prey than from his own good eye sight. We characterise the dynamics in terms of the mean distance between the predator and the nearest prey. It turns out that effectively the dynamics of this distance coordinate can be captured in terms of a simple Ornstein–Uhlenbeck picture. Reducing the many-body problem to a simple two-body problem by imagining predator and nearest prey to be connected by an effective Hookean bond, all features of the model such as prey density and sighting ranges merge into the effective binding constant.
We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black–Scholes–Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.
We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black–Scholes–Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.
Astandard approach to study time-dependent stochastic processes is the power spectral density (PSD), an ensemble-averaged property defined as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function of the process in the asymptotic limit of long observation times, T → ∞. In many experimental situations one is able to garner only relatively few stochastic time series of finite T, such that practically neither an ensemble average nor the asymptotic limit T → ∞ can be achieved. To accommodate for a meaningful analysis of such finite-length data we here develop the framework of single-trajectory spectral analysis for one of the standard models of anomalous diffusion, scaled Brownian motion.Wedemonstrate that the frequency dependence of the single-trajectory PSD is exactly the same as for standard Brownian motion, which may lead one to the erroneous conclusion that the observed motion is normal-diffusive. However, a distinctive feature is shown to be provided by the explicit dependence on the measurement time T, and this ageing phenomenon can be used to deduce the anomalous diffusion exponent.Wealso compare our results to the single-trajectory PSD behaviour of another standard anomalous diffusion process, fractional Brownian motion, and work out the commonalities and differences. Our results represent an important step in establishing singletrajectory PSDs as an alternative (or complement) to analyses based on the time-averaged mean squared displacement.
Many studies on biological and soft matter systems report the joint presence of a linear mean-squared displacement and a non-Gaussian probability density exhibiting, for instance, exponential or stretched-Gaussian tails. This phenomenon is ascribed to the heterogeneity of the medium and is captured by random parameter models such as ‘superstatistics’ or ‘diffusing diffusivity’. Independently, scientists working in the area of time series analysis and statistics have studied a class of discrete-time processes with similar properties, namely, random coefficient autoregressive models. In this work we try to reconcile these two approaches and thus provide a bridge between physical stochastic processes and autoregressive models.Westart from the basic Langevin equation of motion with time-varying damping or diffusion coefficients and establish the link to random coefficient autoregressive processes. By exploring that link we gain access to efficient statistical methods which can help to identify data exhibiting Brownian yet non-Gaussian diffusion.
We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.
Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories
(2021)
Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individualproteins are routinely garnered insingle-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies.They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells.Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data.Such time-series are most typically evaluated in terms of time-averaged mean-squareddisplacements (TAMSDs), which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Theirstatistical properties are different for differentphysical stochastic processes, thus allowing us toextract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of thestatistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implementand computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the TAMSD from itsensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations forBrownian motion (BM) to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets.By comparing the probability of deviations fordifferent data sets, we demonstrate how thetheoretical bound for BM reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. Weapply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracerbeads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Ouranalysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effectiveroutine test to reject the BM hypothesis and unveil relevant information on statistical propertiessuch as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations.