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Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earthquakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.
Synorogenic extension has been recognized as an integral structural constituent of mountain belts and high-elevation plateaus during their evolution. In the Himalaya, both orogen-parallel and orogen-normal extension has been recognized. However, the underlying driving forces for extension and their timing are still a matter of debate. Here we present new fault kinematic data based on systematic measurements of hundreds of outcrop-scale brittle fault planes in the NW Indian Himalaya. This new data set, as well as field observations including crosscutting relationships, mineral fibers on fault planes, and correlations with deformation structures in lake sediments, allows us to distinguish different deformation styles. The overall strain pattern derived from our data reflects the large regional contractional deformation pattern very well but also reveals significant extensional deformation in a region, which is dominated by shortening. In total, we were able to identify six deformation styles, most of which are temporally and spatially linked, representing protracted shortening. Our observations also furnish the basis for a detailed overview of the younger deformation history in the NW Himalaya, which has been characterized by extension overprinting previously generated structures related to shortening. The four dominant deformation styles are (1) shortening parallel to the regional convergence direction; (2) arc-normal extension; (3) arc-parallel extension; and finally, (4) E-W extension. This is the first data set where a succession of both arc-normal and E-W extension has been documented in the Himalaya. Importantly, our observations help differentiate E-W extension triggered by processes within the Tibetan Plateau from arc-parallel and arc-normal extension originating from the curvature of the Himalayan orogen.
Explaining the presence of normal faults in overall compressive settings is a challenging problem in understanding the tectonics of active mountain belts. The Himalayan-Tibetan orogenic system is an excellent setting to approach this problem because it preserves one of the most dramatic records of long-term, contemporaneous shortening and extension. Over the past decades, several studies have described extensional features, not only in the Tibetan Plateau, but also in the Himalaya. For a long time, the favored model explained the function of the Southern Tibetan detachment system, a major fault zone in the Himalaya, as a decoupling horizon between the regime of crustal shortening forming the Himalayan wedge to the south and the extensional regime of the Tibetan Plateau to the north. However, in recent years, increasing evidence has shown that N-S-trending normal faults in the Central Himalaya crosscut not only the Southern Tibetan detachment system, but also the Main Central thrust. Here, we present new structural data and geologic evidence collected within the NW Indian Himalaya and combine them with previously published seismicity data sets in order to document pervasive E-W extension accommodated along N-S-trending faults extending as far south as the footwall of the Main Central thrust. We conducted a kinematic analysis of fault striations on brittle faults, documented and mapped fault scarps in Quaternary sedimentary deposits using satellite imagery, and made field observations in the Greater Sutlej region (Spiti, Lahul, Kinnaur) and the Garhwal Himalaya. Studies of extensional features within the regionally NW- SE-trending NW Indian Himalaya provide the advantage that arc-parallel and E-W extension can be separated, in contrast to the Central Himalaya. Therefore, our observations of E-W extension in the Indian NW Himalaya are well suited to test the applicability of current tectonic models for the whole Himalaya. We favor the interpretation of E-W extension in the NW Indian Himalaya as a propagation of extension driven by collapse of the Tibetan Plateau.