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We perform numerical studies of a thermally driven, overdamped particle in a random quenched force field, known as the Sinai model. We compare the unbounded motion on an infinite 1-dimensional domain to the motion in bounded domains with reflecting boundaries and show that the unbounded motion is at every time close to the equilibrium state of a finite system of growing size. This is due to time scale separation: inside wells of the random potential, there is relatively fast equilibration, while the motion across major potential barriers is ultraslow. Quantities studied by us are the time dependent mean squared displacement, the time dependent mean energy of an ensemble of particles, and the time dependent entropy of the probability distribution. Using a very fast numerical algorithm, we can explore times up top 10(17) steps and thereby also study finite-time crossover phenomena.
Both children and adults have been shown to benefit from the integration of multisensory and sensorimotor enrichment into pedagogy. For example, integrating pictures or gestures into foreign language (L2) vocabulary learning can improve learning outcomes relative to unisensory learning. However, whereas adults seem to benefit to a greater extent from sensorimotor enrichment such as the performance of gestures in contrast to multisensory enrichment with pictures, this is not the case in elementary school children. Here, we compared multisensory- and sensorimotor-enriched learning in an intermediate age group that falls between the age groups tested in previous studies (elementary school children and young adults), in an attempt to determine the developmental time point at which children's responses to enrichment mature from a child-like pattern into an adult-like pattern. Twelve-year-old and fourteen-year-old German children were trained over 5 consecutive days on auditorily presented, concrete and abstract, Spanish vocabulary. The vocabulary was learned under picture-enriched, gesture-enriched, and non-enriched (auditory-only) conditions. The children performed vocabulary recall and translation tests at 3 days, 2 months, and 6 months post-learning. Both picture and gesture enrichment interventions were found to benefit children's L2 learning relative to non-enriched learning up to 6 months post-training. Interestingly, gesture-enriched learning was even more beneficial than picture-enriched learning for the 14-year-olds, while the 12-year-olds benefitted equivalently from learning enriched with pictures and gestures. These findings provide evidence for opting to integrate gestures rather than pictures into L2 pedagogy starting at 14 years of age.
Introduction: Remote telemonitoring (RTM) for patients with chronic heart failure (HF) holds promise to improve prognosis and well-being beyond the standard of care (SoC). The CardioBBEAT trial assessed the health economic and clinical impact of an interactive bidirectional RTM system (Motiva(R)) versus SoC for patients with HF and a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), in Germany.Methods: This multicenter, randomized controlled trial enrolled 621 patients with HFrEF (mean age 63.0 +/- 11.5 years, 88% men). The primary endpoint was the integrated effect of the intervention on total costs and nonhospitalized days alive after 12 months, reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Costs (in keuro) were based on actual charges of patients' statutory health insurance. Among secondary outcome measures were mortality and disease-specific quality of life.Results: We found a neutral effect on nonhospitalized days alive (RTM mean 341 +/- 59 days, SoC 346 +/- 45 days; p = 0.298) associated with increased total costs (RTM 18.5 +/- 39.5 keuro, SoC 12.8 +/- 22.0 keuro; p = 0.046). This yielded an ICER of -1.15 keuro/day. RTM did not impact mortality risk. All quality of life scales were consistently and meaningfully improved in the RTM group at 12 months compared to SoC (all p < 0.01).Conclusions: The first 12 months of RTM were not cost-effective compared to SoC in patients with HFrEF, but associated with a relevant improvement in disease-specific quality of life. The balanced assessment of the potential benefit of RTM requires integration of both the societal and patient perspective.ClinTrials.gov (NCT02293252).
Local biodiversity patterns are expected to strongly reflect variation in topography, land use, dispersal boundaries, nutrient supplies, contaminant spread, management practices, and other anthropogenic influences. Contrary to this expectation, studies focusing on specific taxa revealed a biodiversity homogenization effect in areas subjected to long-term intensive industrial agriculture. We investigated whether land use affects biodiversity levels and community composition (alpha- and beta-diversity) in 67 kettle holes (KH) representing small aquatic islands embedded in the patchwork matrix of a largely agricultural landscape comprising grassland, forest, and arable fields. These KH, similar to millions of standing water bodies of glacial origin, spread across northern Europe, Asia, and North America, are physico-chemically diverse and differ in the degree of coupling with their surroundings. We assessed aquatic and sediment biodiversity patterns of eukaryotes, Bacteria, and Archaea in relation to environmental features of the KH, using deep-amplicon-sequencing of environmental DNA (eDNA). First, we asked whether deep sequencing of eDNA provides a representative picture of KH aquatic biodiversity across the Bacteria, Archaea, and eukaryotes. Second, we investigated if and to what extent KH biodiversity is influenced by the surrounding land use. We hypothesized that richness and community composition will greatly differ in KH from agricultural land use compared with KH in grasslands and forests. Our data show that deep eDNA amplicon sequencing is useful for in-depth assessments of cross-domain biodiversity comprising both micro- and macro-organisms, but has limitations with respect to single-taxa conservation studies. Using this broad method, we show that sediment eDNA, integrating several years to decades, depicts the history of agricultural land-use intensification. Aquatic biodiversity was best explained by seasonality, whereas land-use type explained little of the variation. We concluded that, counter to our hypothesis, land use intensification coupled with landscape wide nutrient enrichment (including atmospheric deposition), groundwater connectivity between KH and organismal (active and passive) dispersal in the tight network of ponds, resulted in a biodiversity homogenization in the KH water, leveling off today's detectable differences in KH biodiversity between land-use types. These findings have profound implications for measures and management strategies to combat current biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes worldwide.
This open access book is about Mozambicans and Angolans who migrated in state-sponsored schemes to East Germany in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. They went to work and to be trained as a vanguard labor force for the intended African industrial revolutions. While they were there, they contributed their labor power to the East German economy.
This book draws on more than 260 life history interviews and uncovers complex and contradictory experiences and transnational encounters. What emerges is a series of dualities that exist side by side in the memories of the former migrants: the state and the individual, work and consumption, integration and exclusion, loss and gain, and the past in the past and the past in the present and future. By uncovering these dualities, the book explores the lives of African migrants moving between the Third and Second worlds.
Devoted to the memories of worker-trainees, this transnational study comes at a time when historians are uncovering the many varied, complicated, and important connections within the global socialist world.
Background: Adolescents and young adults (AYA) with a chronic medical condition show an increased risk for developing mental comorbidities compared to their healthy peers. Internet- and mobile-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) might be a low-threshold treatment to support affected AYA. In this randomized controlled pilot trial, the feasibility and potential efficacy of youthCOACH(CD), an iCBT targeting symptoms of anxiety and depression in AYA with chronic medical conditions, was evaluated. Methods: A total of 30 AYA (M-age 16.13; SD= 2.34; 73% female), aged 12-21 years either suffering from cystic fibrosis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis or type 1 diabetes, were randomly assigned to either a guided version of the iCBT youthCOACH(CD) (IC, n=15) or to a waitlist control group (CG, n=15), receiving an unguided version of the iCBT six months post-randomization. Participants of the IG and the CG were assessed before (t0), twelve weeks after (t1) and six months after (t2) randomization. Primary outcome was the feasibility of the iCBT. Different parameters of feasibility e.g. acceptance, client satisfaction or potential side effects were evaluated. First indications of the possible efficacy with regard to the primary efficacy outcome, the Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and Depression Scale, and further outcome variables were evaluated using linear regression models, adjusting for baseline values. Results: Regarding feasibility, intervention completion was 60%; intervention satisfaction (M = 25.42, SD = 5.85) and perceived therapeutic alliance (M = 2.83, SD = 1.25) were moderate and comparable to other iCBTs. No patterns emerged regarding subjective and objective negative side effects due to participation in youthCOACH(CD). Estimates of potential efficacy showed between group differences, with a potential medium-term benefit of youthCOACH(CD) (beta = -0.55, 95%Cl: -1.17; 0.07), but probably not short-term (beta = 0.20, 95%Cl: -0.47; 0.88). Conclusions: Our results point to the feasibility of youthCOACH(CD) and the implementation of a future definitive randomized controlled trial addressing its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Due to the small sample size, conclusions are premature, however, further strategies to foster treatment adherence should be considered.
Recent observations have revealed remarkable insights into the gas reservoir in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxy haloes. In this paper, we characterise the gas in the vicinity of Milky Way and Andromeda analogues in the hestia (High resolution Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area) suite of constrained Local Group (LG) simulations. The hestia suite comprise of a set of three high-resolution arepo-based simulations of the LG, run using the Auriga galaxy formation model.
For this paper, we focus only on the 𝑧 = 0 simulation datasets and generate mock skymaps along with a power spectrum analysis to show that the distributions of ions tracing low-temperature gas (H i and Si iii) are more clumpy in comparison to warmer gas tracers (O vi, O vii and O viii). We compare to the spectroscopic CGM observations of M31 and low-redshift galaxies.
hestia under-produces the column densities of the M31 observations, but the simulations are consistent with the observations of low-redshift galaxies. A possible explanation for these findings is that the spectroscopic observations of M31 are contaminated by gas residing in the CGM of the Milky Way.
Improving permafrost dynamics in land surface models: insights from dual sensitivity experiments
(2024)
The thawing of permafrost and the subsequent release of greenhouse gases constitute one of the most significant and uncertain positive feedback loops in the context of climate change, making predictions regarding changes in permafrost coverage of paramount importance. To address these critical questions, climate scientists have developed Land Surface Models (LSMs) that encompass a multitude of physical soil processes. This thesis is committed to advancing our understanding and refining precise representations of permafrost dynamics within LSMs, with a specific focus on the accurate modeling of heat fluxes, an essential component for simulating permafrost physics.
The first research question overviews fundamental model prerequisites for the representation of permafrost soils within land surface modeling. It includes a first-of-its-kind comparison between LSMs in CMIP6 to reveal their differences and shortcomings in key permafrost physics parameters. Overall, each of these LSMs represents a unique approach to simulating soil processes and their interactions with the climate system. Choosing the most appropriate model for a particular application depends on factors such as the spatial and temporal scale of the simulation, the specific research question, and available computational resources.
The second research question evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Community Land Model (CLM5) in simulating Arctic permafrost regions. Our approach overcomes traditional evaluation limitations by individually addressing depth, seasonality, and regional variations, providing a comprehensive assessment of permafrost and soil temperature dynamics. I compare CLM5's results with three extensive datasets: (1) soil temperatures from 295 borehole stations, (2) active layer thickness (ALT) data from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network (CALM), and (3) soil temperatures, ALT, and permafrost extent from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI). The results show that CLM5 aligns well with ESA-CCI and CALM for permafrost extent and ALT but reveals a significant global cold temperature bias, notably over Siberia. These results echo a persistent challenge identified in numerous studies: the existence of a systematic 'cold bias' in soil temperature over permafrost regions. To address this challenge, the following research questions propose dual sensitivity experiments.
The third research question represents the first study to apply a Plant Functional Type (PFT)-based approach to derive soil texture and soil organic matter (SOM), departing from the conventional use of coarse-resolution global data in LSMs. This novel method results in a more uniform distribution of soil organic matter density (OMD) across the domain, characterized by reduced OMD values in most regions. However, changes in soil texture exhibit a more intricate spatial pattern. Comparing the results to observations reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias observed in the control run. This method shows noticeable improvements in permafrost extent, but at the cost of an overestimation in ALT. These findings emphasize the model's high sensitivity to variations in soil texture and SOM content, highlighting the crucial role of soil composition in governing heat transfer processes and shaping the seasonal variation of soil temperatures in permafrost regions.
Expanding upon a site experiment conducted in Trail Valley Creek by \citet{dutch_impact_2022}, the fourth research question extends the application of the snow scheme proposed by \citet{sturm_thermal_1997} to cover the entire Arctic domain. By employing a snow scheme better suited to the snow density profile observed over permafrost regions, this thesis seeks to assess its influence on simulated soil temperatures. Comparing this method to observational datasets reveals a significant reduction in the cold bias that was present in the control run. In most regions, the Sturm run exhibits a substantial decrease in the cold bias. However, there is a distinctive overshoot with a warm bias observed in mountainous areas. The Sturm experiment effectively addressed the overestimation of permafrost extent in the control run, albeit resulting in a substantial reduction in permafrost extent over mountainous areas. ALT results remain relatively consistent compared to the control run. These outcomes align with our initial hypothesis, which anticipated that the reduced snow insulation in the Sturm run would lead to higher winter soil temperatures and a more accurate representation of permafrost physics.
In summary, this thesis demonstrates significant advancements in understanding permafrost dynamics and its integration into LSMs. It has meticulously unraveled the intricacies involved in the interplay between heat transfer, soil properties, and snow dynamics in permafrost regions. These insights offer novel perspectives on model representation and performance.
Dieses Literatur-Review verfolgt angesichts des gegenwärtigen, gesteigerten öffentlichen Interesses zum Thema von Arbeitszeitverkürzungsmodellen mit Gehaltsausgleich das Ziel, den aktuellen deutsch- und englischsprachigen Forschungsstand zum möglichen Nutzen von Arbeitszeitverkürzungen mit Gehaltsausgleich (AZV+) für den öffentlichen Arbeitgeber dar-zustellen und kritisch auszuwerten. Das Review basiert auf insgesamt zehn Publikationen, die zum großen Teil zu dem Schluss kommen, dass AZV+ zu keinen negativen Effekten, sondern zu entweder neutralen oder auch mehrheitlich positiven Auswirkungen auf die Arbeitgebendenseite führen. Dabei handelt es sich insbesondere um verbesserte Stresslevel, gesundheitliche Aspekte, gleichbleibende oder erhöhte Produktivität und Motivation/Energie sowie verringerte Absentismuszahlen. Die Anreiz-Beitrags-Theorie bietet sich als Erklärungsmodell für diese Ergebnisse gut an, da sie Aussagen darüber trifft, inwiefern Anreizsysteme wie eine AZV+ für Arbeitnehmende durch deren subjektive Bedürfnisbefriedigung unter Einhaltung bestimmter Grenzen (keine Überschreitung der Beitragsforderungen durch Anpassung des Workload) zu Effekten führen kann, die sich indirekt auch positiv hinsichtlich der Organisationsziele aus-wirken. Die ebenfalls angewandten motivationstheoretischen Elemente der Cognitive Evaluation Theory und der Motivation Crowding Theorie eignen sich weniger gut in ihrer Erklärungskraft der untersuchten Effekte, da die Differenzierung verschiedener Motivationsarten im Rahmen der hier untersuchten Studien unerheblich zu sein scheint. Insgesamt ist die Studienlage zu dem Thema AZV+ generell, und auch speziell im öffentlichen Sektor, sehr dünn und bietet kaum Möglichkeiten für generalisierende Aus-sagen, sodass ein großer Forschungsbedarf zu diesem Thema besteht.
Das Anliegen, Theologie dialogisch zu betreiben, durchzieht das wissenschaftliche Schaffen und das kirchliche Engagement Bernd Oberdorfers. Dialogizität, Geselligkeit, Freundschaft und Partnerschaftlichkeit bilden nicht nur Themen in seinem Denken, sondern zeichnen auch seine Persönlichkeit aus.
Davon angeregt verfolgt der Sammelband verschiedene Ebenen und Felder menschlichen Zusammenlebens: von Nahbeziehungen in der Partnerschaft und Freundschaft bis hin zu nationalen und globalen Dialogen zwischen Kirchen und Diskursformen in der Gesellschaft. Schwerpunkte liegen auf den Themen Partnerschaft, Geselligkeit und Disput, interdisziplinären Begegnungen mit Literatur, Kultur und Ethik, Friedensethik und Frieden der Religionen und Dogmatik und weltweite Ökumene im Dialog zwischen Theorie und Praxis.
The present study estimated diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and land use (LU) in a sample of adults, examined main dietary contributors of GHGE, and evaluated socio demographic, lifestyle, and wellbeing factors as potential determinants of high environmental impact. A cross-sectional design based on data collected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (2010-2012) was used. Usual diet was assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Diet-related GHGE and LU were calculated using a European-average lifecycle analyses-food-item database (SHARP-ID). Information on potential determinants were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Men (n = 404) and women (n = 401) at an average age of 66.0 +/- 8.4 years were included. Dietary-related energy-adjusted GHGE in men was 6.6 +/- 0.9 and in women was 7.0 +/- 1.1 kg CO2 eq per 2000 kcal. LU in men was 7.8 +/- 1.2 and in women was 7.7 +/- 1.2 m(2)/year per 2000 kcal. Food groups contributing to most GHGE included dairy, meat and non-alcoholic beverages. Among women, being single, having a job, being a smoker and having higher BMI were characteristics associated with higher GHGE, whereas for men these included being married, longer sleeping duration and higher BMI. Further studies are warranted to provide insights into population-specific determinants of sustainable dietary choices.
The drug concentrations targeted in meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam therapy also depend on the susceptibility of the pathogen. Yet, the pathogen is often unknown, and antibiotic therapy is guided by empirical targets. To reliably achieve the targeted concentrations, dosing needs to be adjusted for renal function. We aimed to evaluate a meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam monitoring program in intensive care unit (ICU) patients by assessing (i) the adequacy of locally selected empirical targets, (ii) if dosing is adequately adjusted for renal function and individual target, and (iii) if dosing is adjusted in target attainment (TA) failure. In a prospective, observational clinical trial of drug concentrations, relevant patient characteristics and microbiological data (pathogen, minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC)) for patients receiving meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam treatment were collected. If the MIC value was available, a target range of 1-5 x MIC was selected for minimum drug concentrations of both drugs. If the MIC value was not available, 8-40 mg/L and 16-80 mg/L were selected as empirical target ranges for meropenem and piperacillin, respectively. A total of 356 meropenem and 216 piperacillin samples were collected from 108 and 96 ICU patients, respectively. The vast majority of observed MIC values was lower than the empirical target (meropenem: 90.0%, piperacillin: 93.9%), suggesting empirical target value reductions. TA was found to be low (meropenem: 35.7%, piperacillin 50.5%) with the lowest TA for severely impaired renal function (meropenem: 13.9%, piperacillin: 29.2%), and observed drug concentrations did not significantly differ between patients with different targets, indicating dosing was not adequately adjusted for renal function or target. Dosing adjustments were rare for both drugs (meropenem: 6.13%, piperacillin: 4.78%) and for meropenem irrespective of TA, revealing that concentration monitoring alone was insufficient to guide dosing adjustment. Empirical targets should regularly be assessed and adjusted based on local susceptibility data. To improve TA, scientific knowledge should be translated into easy-to-use dosing strategies guiding antibiotic dosing.
Biochemical markers and wellness status during a congested match play period in elite soccer players
(2022)
Objectives:
To analyze biochemical markers, wellness status, and physical fitness in elite soccer players in relation to changes in training and match exposure during a congested period of match play.
Methods:
Fourteen elite soccer players were evaluated 3 times (T1, T2, and T3) over 12 weeks (T1-T2: 6-wk regular period of match play and T2-T3: 6-wk congested period of match play). Players performed vertical jump tests, repeated shuttle sprint ability test, and the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test at T1, T2, and T3. Plasma C-reactive protein, creatinine, and creatine kinase were analyzed at T1, T2, and T3. Wellness status was measured daily using the Hopper questionnaire (delayed onset of muscle soreness, stress, fatigue, and sleep quality). Training session rating of perceived exertion was also recorded on a daily basis.
Results:
A significant increase was found in stress, fatigue, delayed onset of muscle soreness scores, and Hopper index during the congested period (between T2 and T3) compared with the regular period (between T1 and T2) (.001 < P < .008, 0.8 < ES < 2.3). Between T2 and T3, significant relationships were found between the percentage variations (Delta%) of C-reactive protein, and Delta% of creatine kinase with the Hopper Index, and the Delta% of fatigue score. In addition, the Delta% of fatigue score and Delta% of delayed onset of muscle soreness score correlated with Delta% Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test and Delta% best of repeated shuttle sprint ability test (.49 < r < P < .01).
Conclusions:
An intensive period of congested match play significantly compromised elite soccer players' physical fitness and wellness status. Elite soccer players' wellness status reflects declines in physical fitness during this period while biochemical changes do not.
State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.
Wer Religion im mittelalterlichen und frühneuzeitlichen Europa untersuchen will, ist mit ähnlichen Schwierigkeiten konfrontiert wie bei der Anwendung des Begriffs in außereuropäischen Kontexten. Die Menschen damals verfügten allenfalls über vergleichbare, nicht aber identische Konzepte. In meinem Artikel werde ich drei dieser möglichen äquivalenten Religionskonzepte vorstellen und auf ihre Anschlussfähigkeit diskutieren: fides, lex und natio. Um diese Begriffe besser einordnen zu können, wird es zunächst darum gehen, einige grundsätzliche Unterschiede der Rolle von Religion im späten Mittelalter und der Frühen Neuzeit im Gegensatz zur Moderne in den Blick zu nehmen.
Trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) is usually calculated as the ratio of production rates between two consecutive trophic levels. Although seemingly simple, TTE estimates from lakes are rare. In our review, we explore the processes and structures that must be understood for a proper lake TTE estimate.
We briefly discuss measurements of production rates and trophic positions and mention how ecological efficiencies, nutrients (N, P) and other compounds (fatty acids) affect energy transfer between trophic levels and hence TTE.
Furthermore, we elucidate how TTE estimates are linked with size-based approaches according to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, and how food-web models can be applied to study TTE in lakes.
Subsequently, we explore temporal and spatial heterogeneity of production and TTE in lakes, with a particular focus on the links between benthic and pelagic habitats and between the lake and the terrestrial environment.
We provide an overview of TTE estimates from lakes found in the published literature. Finally, we present two alternative approaches to estimating TTE. First, TTE can be seen as a mechanistic quantity informing about the energy and matter flow between producer and consumer groups.
This approach is informative with respect to food-web structure, but requires enormous amounts of data. The greatest uncertainty comes from the proper consideration of basal production to estimate TTE of omnivorous organisms.
An alternative approach is estimating food-chain and food-web efficiencies, by comparing the heterotrophic production of single consumer levels or the total sum of all heterotrophic production including that of heterotrophic bacteria to the total sum of primary production.
We close the review by pointing to a few research questions that would benefit from more frequent and standardized estimates of TTE in lakes.
Lithium and boron are trace components of magmas, released during exsolution of a gas phase during volcanic activity.
In this study, we determine the diffusivity and isotopic fractionation of Li and B in hydrous silicate melts.
Two glasses were synthesized with the same rhyolitic composition (4.2 wt% water), having different Li and B contents; these were studied in diffusion-couple experiments that were performed using an internally heated pressure vessel, operated at 300 MPa in the temperature range 700-1250 degrees C for durations from 0 s to 24 h. From this we determined activation energies for Li and B diffusion of 57 +/- 4 kJ/mol and 152 +/- 15 kJ/mol with pre-exponential factors of 1.53 x 10(-7) m(2)/s and 3.80 x 10(-8) m(2)/s, respectively.
Lithium isotopic fractionation during diffusion gave beta values between 0.15 and 0.20, whereas B showed no clear isotopic fractionation.
Our Li diffusivities and isotopic fractionation results differ somewhat from earlier published values, but overall confirm that Li diffusivity increases with water content. Our results on B diffusion show that similarly to Li, B mobility increases in the presence of water.
By applying the Eyring relation, we confirm that B diffusivity is limited by viscous flow in silicate melts.
Our results on Li and B diffusion present a new tool for understanding degassing-related processes, offering a potential geospeedometer to measure volcanic ascent rates.
How accurately can we retrieve irrigation timing and water amounts from (satellite) soil moisture?
(2022)
While ensuring food security worldwide, irrigation is altering the water cycle and generating numerous environmental side effects. As detailed knowledge about the timing and the amounts of water used for irrigation over large areas is still lacking, remotely sensed soil moisture has proved potential to fill this gap.
However, the spatial resolution and revisit time of current satellite products represent a major limitation to accurately estimating irrigation. This work aims to systematically quantify their impact on the retrieved irrigation information, hence assessing the value of satellite soil moisture for estimating irrigation timing and water amounts.
In a real-world experiment, we modeled soil moisture using actual irrigation and meteorological data, obtained from farmers and weather stations, respectively. Modeled soil moisture was compared against various remotely sensed products differing in terms of spatio-temporal resolution to test the hypothesis that high-resolution observations can disclose the irrigation signal from individual fields while coarse-scale satellite products cannot.
Then, in a synthetic experiment, we systematically investigated the effect of soil moisture spatial and temporal resolution on the accuracy of irrigation estimates. The analysis was further elaborated by considering different irrigation scenarios and by adding realistic amounts of random errors in the soil moisture time series.
We show that coarse-scale remotely sensed soil moisture products achieve higher correlations with rainfed simulations, while high-resolution satellite observations agree significantly better with irrigated simulations, suggesting that high-resolution satellite soil moisture can inform on field-scale (similar to 40 ha) irrigation. A thorough analysis of the synthetic dataset showed that satisfactory results, both in terms of detection (F-score > 0.8) and quantification (Pearson's correlation > 0.8), are found for noise-free soil moisture observations either with a temporal sampling up to 3 days or if at least one-third of the pixel covers the irrigated field(s).
However, irrigation water amounts are systematically underestimated for temporal samplings of more than one day, and decrease proportionally to the spatial resolution, i.e., coarsening the pixel size leads to larger irrigation underestimations.
Although lower spatial and temporal resolutions decrease the detection and quantification accuracies (e.g., R between 0.6 and 1 depending on the irrigation rate and spatio-temporal resolution), random errors in the soil moisture time series have a stronger negative impact (Pearson R always smaller than 0.85).
As expected, better performances are found for higher irrigation rates, i.e. when more water is supplied during an irrigation event. Despite the potentially large underestimations, our results suggest that high-resolution satellite soil moisture has the potential to track and quantify irrigation, especially over regions where large volumes of irrigation water are applied to the fields, and given that low errors affect the soil moisture observations.
The process of species formation is characterized by the accumulation of multiple reproductive barriers. The evolution of hybrid male sterility, or Haldane's rule, typically characterizes later stages of species formation, when reproductive isolation is strongest.
Yet, understanding how quickly reproductive barriers evolve and their consequences for maintaining genetic boundaries between emerging species remains a challenging task because it requires studying taxa that hybridize in nature.
Here, we address these questions using the meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus, where populations that show multiple reproductive barriers, including hybrid male sterility, hybridize in two natural hybrid zones. Using mitochondrial data, we infer that such populations diverged some 100,000 years ago, at the beginning of the last glacial cycle in Europe.
Nuclear data show that contractions at multiple glacial refugia, and post-glacial expansions have facilitated genetic differentiation between lineages that today interact in hybrid zones.
We find extensive introgression throughout the sampled species range, irrespective of the current strength of reproductive isolation. Populations exhibiting hybrid male sterility in two hybrid zones show repeatable patterns of genomic differentiation, consistent with shared genomic constraints affecting ancestral divergence or with the role of those regions in reproductive isolation.
Together, our results suggest that reproductive barriers that characterize late stages of species formation can evolve relatively quickly, particularly when associated with strong demographic changes. Moreover, we show that such barriers persist in the face of extensive gene flow, allowing future studies to identify associated genomic regions.
In vitro transcribed (IVT)-mRNA has been accepted as a promising therapeutic modality. Advances in facile and rapid production technologies make IVT-mRNA an appealing alternative to protein- or virus-based medicines.
Robust expression levels, lack of genotoxicity, and their manageable immunogenicity benefit its clinical applicability.
We postulated that innate immune responses of therapeutically relevant human cells can be tailored or abrogated by combinations of 5'-end and internal IVT-mRNA modifications.
Using primary human macrophages as targets, our data show the particular importance of uridine modifications for IVT-mRNA performance.
Among five nucleotide modification schemes tested, 5-methoxy-uridine outperformed other modifications up to 4-fold increased transgene expression, triggering moderate proinflammatory and non-detectable antiviral responses.
Macrophage responses against IVT-mRNAs exhibiting high immunogenicity (e.g., pseudouridine) could be minimized upon HPLC purification. Conversely, 5'-end modifications had only modest effects on mRNA expression and immune responses.
Our results revealed how the uptake of chemically modified IVT-mRNA impacts human macrophages, responding with distinct patterns of innate immune responses concomitant with increased transient transgene expression.
We anticipate our findings are instrumental to predictively address specific cell responses required for a wide range of therapeutic applications from eliciting controlled immunogenicity in mRNA vaccines to, e.g., completely abrogating cell activation in protein replacement therapies.
Das Risiko, durch einen Suizid im Gefängnis zu versterben, ist erhöht. Während der COVID-19-Pandemie wurden zum Infektionsschutz zahlreiche Maßnahmen, die beispielsweise eine deutliche Minderung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote zur Folge hatten, eingeführt. Im Rahmen eines Kohortenvergleichs der Suizide und ausgewählter Merkmale der Suizident:innen in den Zeiträumen vom April 2017 bis zum Dezember 2019 sowie vom April 2020 bis zum Dezember 2022 wird untersucht, ob es eine Veränderung der Suizide während der Pandemie gab. Im Ergebnis zeigen sich eine Zunahme der Suizide während der Pandemie, insbesondere in den ersten 14 Tagen der Haft, und eine Zunahme der Suizide von Suizident:innen mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität. Keine Unterschiede wurden in den allgemeinen Risikomerkmalen für Suizide im Gefängnis festgestellt. Es ergeben sich Hinweise auf eine suizidpräventive Wirkung der Kontakt- und Behandlungsangebote. Daraus ergibt sich die Notwendigkeit, intensivere Präventionsangebote für Gefangene mit erhöhter Vulnerabilität bzw. geringerer Resilienz anzubieten.
Non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) as used in state-of-the-art organic solar cells feature highly crystalline layers that go along with low energetic disorder.
Here, the crucial role of energetic disorder in blends of the donor polymer PM6 with two Y-series NFAs, Y6, and N4 is studied.
By performing temperature-dependent charge transport and recombination studies, a consistent picture of the shape of the density of state distributions for free charges in the two blends is developed, allowing an analytical description of the dependence of the open-circuit voltage V-OC on temperature and illumination intensity.
Disorder is found to influence the value of the V-OC at room temperature, but also its progression with temperature. Here, the PM6:Y6 blend benefits substantially from its narrower state distributions.
The analysis also shows that the energy of the equilibrated free charge population is well below the energy of the NFA singlet excitons for both blends and possibly below the energy of the populated charge transfer manifold, indicating a down-hill driving force for free charge formation.
It is concluded that energetic disorder of charge-separated states has to be considered in the analysis of the photovoltaic properties, even for the more ordered PM6:Y6 blend.
The dynamics of grassland ecosystems are highly complex due to multifaceted interactions among their soil, water, and vegetation components.
Precise simulations of grassland productivity therefore rely on accurately estimating a variety of parameters that characterize different processes of these systems.
This study applied three calibration schemes - a Single-Objective (SO-SUFI2), a Multi-Objective Pareto (MO-Pareto), and, a novel Uncertainty-Based Multi-Objective (MO-SUFI2) - to estimate the parameters of MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon Simulation) agro-ecosystem model in grassland ecosystems across Germany.
The MO-Pareto model is based on a traditional Pareto optimality concept, while the MO-SUFI2 optimizes multiple target variables considering their level of prediction uncertainty.
We used measurements of leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture from experimental data at five sites with different intensities of cutting regimes (from two to five cutting events per season) to evaluate model performance.
Both MO-Pareto and MO-SUFI2 outperformed SO-SUFI2 during calibration and validation.
The comparison of the two MO approaches shows that they do not necessarily conflict with each other, but MO-SUFI2 provides complementary information for better estimations of model parameter uncertainty.
We used the obtained parameter ranges to simulate grassland productivity across Germany under different cutting regimes and quantified the uncertainty associated with estimated productivity across regions.
The results showed higher uncertainty in intensively managed grasslands compared to extensively managed grasslands, partially due to a lack of high-resolution input information concerning cutting dates. Furthermore, the additional information on the quantified uncertainty provided by our proposed MO-SUFI2 method adds deeper insights on confidence levels of estimated productivity.
Benefiting from additional management data collected at high resolution and ground measurements on the composition of grassland species mixtures appear to be promising solutions to reduce uncertainty and increase model reliability.
How do the rights of same-sex couples have to be ensured by states, and which kind of environmental obligations are induced by the right to life and to personal integrity? Questions as diverse and far-reaching as these are regularly dealt with by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in its advisory function. This book is the first comprehensive, non-Spanish-written treatise on the advisory function of this Court. It analyzes the scope of the Court's advisory jurisdiction and its procedural practice in comparison with that of other international courts. Moreover, the legal effects of the Court’s advisory opinions and the question when the Court should better reject a request for an advisory opinion are examined.
Objective:
The open expression of hatred, hostility, and violence against minorities has become a common online phenomenon. Adolescents are at particular risk of being involved in different hate speech roles (e.g., witness, perpetrator).
However, the correlates of their involvement as perpetrators and the mechanisms that might explain their involvement in hate speech across different roles have not yet been thoroughly investigated.
To this end, this study investigates moral disengagement and empathy as correlates of online hate speech perpetration and the moderation effects of empathy and moral disengagement in the relationship between witnessing and perpetrating online hate speech.
Method:
The sample consists of 3,560 7th to 9th graders from 40 schools in Germany and Switzerland. Self-report questionnaires were utilized to assess online hate speech involvement, moral disengagement, and empathy.
Results:
Multilevel regression analyses revealed that moral disengagement and witnessing online hate speech were positively associated with online hate speech perpetration, while empathy was negatively associated with it.
The findings also showed that the positive relationship between witnessing and perpetrating online hate speech was stronger at higher levels of moral disengagement and weaker when moral disengagement was low.
The association between witnessing and perpetrating online hate speech was weaker when adolescents had higher rather than lower levels of empathy.
Conclusions:
The findings underscore the need for prevention efforts to accelerate moral engagement and empathy as critical future directions in hate speech prevention. This study also contributes to our understanding of underlying mechanisms that explain adolescents' involvement across different roles in hate speech.
Adolescents around the globe are increasingly exposed to online hate speech (OHS). And yet little is known about the varying roles of involvement and the determinants of adolescents' hate speech perpetration.
Building on previous research, this study aims to test the cycle of violence hypothesis for OHS and to analyze whether moral disengagement (MD) and empathy moderate the victim-to-perpetrator relationship.
The sample consists of 3,560 seventh to ninth graders (52.1 percent girls), recruited from 40 schools across Germany and Switzerland. Self-report questionnaires were administered to assess OHS involvement, MD, and empathy.
Multilevel analyses revealed that victims of OHS were more likely to report OHS perpetration.
In addition, victims of OHS were more likely to report OHS perpetration when they reported higher levels of MD than those with lower levels of MD.
Finally, victims of OHS were less likely to report OHS perpetration when they reported higher levels of empathy than those with lower levels of empathy.
The findings extend the cycle of violence hypothesis to OHS and highlight the need to address MD and empathy in hate speech prevention. Implications for future research will be discussed.
Eine indifferente Gemengelage unterschiedlicher Erwartungen ist im Coaching nicht selten. Jeder will etwas anderes - was genau, weiß man häufig nicht. Oftmals ist man sich noch nicht einmal sicher, was man selbst will. Das führt zu Stress und Blockaden. Und die Optionen und Handlungsmöglichkeiten geraten aus dem Blick. Diese Situation ist auch vielen Führungskräften wohlbekannt.
Wie gut ist gut?
(2022)
Fortes fortuna adiuvat*
(2022)
Der Sinn des Lebens
(2023)
Job satisfaction is a major driver of an individual’s subjective well-being and thus affects public health, societal prosperity, and organisations, as dissatisfied employees are less productive and more likely to change jobs. However, changing jobs does not necessarily lead to higher job satisfaction in the long run. Previous studies have shown, instead, that changing jobs only increases job satisfaction for a short period of time before it gradually falls back to similar levels as before. This phenomenon is known as the ’honeymoon–hangover’ pattern. In our study, we identify an important new moderator of the relation between job change and job satisfaction: the job–education match of job changes. Based on relative deprivation theory, we argue that job changes from being overeducated in a job lowers the likelihood of negative comparisons and thus increases the honeymoon period, lessens the hangover period, and increases long-term job satisfaction. We use data from the Socio-Economic Panel ranging from 1994–2018 and focus specifically on individual periods of employees before and after job changes (n = 134,404). Our results confirm that a change to a job that requires a matched education has a stronger and longer-lasting effect on job satisfaction, and that this effect is slightly lower for respondents born abroad.
Perovskite/silicon tandem photovoltaics (PVs) promise to accelerate the decarbonization of our energy systems. Here, we present a thorough subcell diagnosis methodology to reveal deep insights into the practical efficiency limitations of state-of-the-art perovskite/silicon tandem PVs. Our subcell selective intensity-dependent photoluminescence (PL) and injection-dependent electroluminescence (EL) measurements allow independent assessment of pseudo-V-OC and power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) for both subcells. We reveal identical metrics from PL and EL, which implies well-aligned energy levels throughout the entire cell. Relatively large ideality factors and insufficient charge extraction, however, cause each a fill factor penalty of about 6% (absolute). Using partial device stacks, we then identify significant losses in standard perovskite subcells due to bulk and interfacial recombination. Lastly, we present strategies to minimize these losses using triple halide (CsFAPb(IBrCI)(3)) based perovskites. Our results give helpful feedback for device development and lay the foundation toward advanced perovskite/silicon tandem PVs capable of exceeding 33% PCE.
The article analyzes the investigations conducted by the Berlin police into the subsequent perpetrator of the vehicle-ramming attack at a Berlin Christmas market on December 19, 2016. We explore why the police closed these investigations prematurely and thereby focus on an attempt to prevent lone actor terrorism. The analysis shows that the police closed its investigations owing to organizational dynamics driven by an increasing need to justify further resource investments in the face of absent conclusive evidence and scarce resources in relation to the organizational case ecology. We propose hypotheses for future research and formulate three contributions to existing research on the sociology of police, terrorism prevention, and lone actor research.
Kontexturanalyse
(2022)
In den letzten 20 Jahren hat sich in der qualitativen und rekonstruktiven Sozialforschung vermehrt die Frage gestellt, wie sich polyphone, polykontexturale und in ihren Sinnbezügen mehrdeutige Verhältnisse erforschen lassen. In diesem Buch wird ein Zugang vorgestellt, der von Mehrdeutigkeiten ausgehend Systemdynamiken rekonstruiert. Die theoretischen und methodischen Überlegungen werden anhand von Beispielen aus der Organisations- und Managementforschung sowie der Erforschung der Selbst- und Weltverhältnisse religiöser Akteure vorgeführt.
Religionen sind wichtige Akteurinnen der Zivilgesellschaft. Die Frage, wie sie miteinander umgehen, ist von entscheidender Bedeutung für die Zukunft pluraler, offener Gesellschaften. Für dieses Buch haben sich vier Akteure der interreligiösen Verständigung erstmals zusammengetan: Die national und international agierenden Organisationen Religions for Peace und Stiftung Weltethos, der Bundeskongress der Räte der Religionen als Verbund kommunaler interreligiöser Initiativen sowie die Forschungsschnittstelle Forum Religionen im Kontext an der Universität Potsdam. Das Buch enthält Steckbriefe von siebzig interreligiösen Organisationen und Initiativen. Ergänzt wird es durch Reflexionen über die Geschichte und die Zukunft des interreligiösen Dialogs in Deutschland sowie über die Rolle von Religion in der Zivilgesellschaft.
Der Artikel analysiert staatliche Krisenprävention am Fall der polizeilichen Ermittlungen vor dem Anschlag auf den Breitscheidplatz. Die Leitfrage lautet, warum die Polizei ihre Ermittlungen vorzeitig einstellte, obwohl sie Hinweise hatte, dass der spätere Täter beabsichtigte, einen Anschlag zu begehen. Wir zeigen, dass dies auf eine organisationale Dynamik zurückging, die typisch für staatliche Krisenprävention im Bereich Terrorismus scheint.
Ground-motion models (GMMs) are often used to predict the random distribution of Spectral accelerations (SAs) at a site due to a nearby earthquake. In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, large earthquakes occurring close to a site are considered as critical scenarios. GMMs are expected to predict realistic SAs with low within-model uncertainty (sigma(mu)) for such rare scenarios. However, the datasets used to regress GMMs are usually deficient of data from critical scenarios. The (Kotha et al., A Regionally Adaptable Ground-Motion Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Europe Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 18:4091-4125, 2020) GMM developed from the Engineering strong motion (ESM) dataset was found to predict decreasing short-period SAs with increasing M-W >= M-h = 6.2, and with large sigma(mu) at near-source distances <= 30km. In this study, we updated the parametrisation of the GMM based on analyses of ESM and the Near source strong motion (NESS) datasets. With M-h = 5.7, we could rectify the M-W scaling issue, while also reducing sigma(mu). at M-W >= M-h. We then evaluated the GMM against NESS data, and found that the SAs from a few large, thrust-faulting events in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Mexico are significantly higher than GMM median predictions. However, recordings from these events were mostly made on soft-soil geology, and contain anisotropic pulse-like effects. A more thorough non-ergodic treatment of NESS was not possible because most sites sampled unique events in very diverse tectonic environments. We provide an updated set of GMM coefficients,sigma(mu), and heteroscedastic variance models; while also cautioning against its application for M-W <= 4 in low-moderate seismicity regions without evaluating the homogeneity of M-W estimates between pan-European ESM and regional datasets.
Rationalistische Zerrbilder
(2020)
Eine zentrale Problematik in der Analyse von Katastrophen liegt darin, dass sich katastrophale Ereignisse nur schwer in ihrem Entstehen beobachten lassen, da sie kaum prognostizierbar sind und sich aus diesem Grund oft einer direkten Beobachtung entziehen. Dies trifft erkennbar auf technische Unfälle zu, aber natürlich auch auf katastrophale Ereignisse abseits technischer Systeme – und dies obgleich der überwiegenden Mehrheit solcher Ereignisse eine relativ lange Inkubationszeit vorausgeht (Turner 1976, 1978; Vaughan 1996). Aber auch ungeachtet dieser Problematik ließe sich zurecht fragen, wie gut sich Finanzkrisen, Flugzeugabstürze oder das Versagen polizeilicher Ermittlungen der Position einer singulären Beobachterin oder eines singulären Beobachters erschließen.
Recent advances in organic solar cell performance have been mainly driven forward by combining high-performance p-type donor-acceptor copolymers (e.g.PM6) and non-fullerene small molecule acceptors (e.g.Y6) as bulk-heterojunction layers. A general observation in such devices is that the device performance, e.g., the open-circuit voltage, is strongly dependent on the processing solvent. While the morphology is a typically named key parameter, the energetics of donor-acceptor blends are equally important, but less straightforward to access in the active multicomponent layer. Here, we propose to use spectral onsets during electrochemical cycling in a systematic spectroelectrochemical study of blend films to access the redox behavior and the frontier orbital energy levels of the individual compounds. Our study reveals that the highest occupied molecular orbital offset (Delta E-HOMO) in PM6:Y6 blends is similar to 0.3 eV, which is comparable to the binding energy of Y6 excitons and therefore implies a nearly zero driving force for the dissociation of Y6 excitons. Switching the PM6 orientation in the blend films from face-on to edge-on in bulk has only a minor influence on the positions of the energy levels, but shows significant differences in the open circuit voltage of the device. We explain this phenomenon by the different interfacial molecular orientations, which are known to affect the non-radiative decay rate of the charge-transfer state. We compare our results to ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy data, which shows distinct differences in the HOMO offsets in the PM6:Y6 blend compared to neat films. This highlights the necessity to measure the energy levels of the individual compounds in device-relevant blend films.
Der Artikel analysiert aus organisationssoziologischer Perspektive wie die Bundeswehr Gleichstellungsrecht umsetzt. Das zentrale Argument lautet, dass die Bundeswehr das Gleichstellungsrecht managerialisiert, indem sie institutionalisierte Praktiken adaptiert, die es erlauben, das Gleichstellungsrecht für den Zweck der Personalgewinnung auszudeuten. Die Adaption dieser Praktiken wird maßgeblich dadurch begünstigt, dass sich das Gleichstellungsrecht als Lösung mit dem Problem der zukünftigen Personalgewinnung verknüpfen lässt, nachdem die Bundesregierung die Wehrpflicht aussetzte und beschloss, die Bundeswehr wieder zu vergrößern. Der beschriebene Prozess führt auch dazu, dass die Bundeswehr in der Umsetzung des Gleichstellungsrechtes zunehmend großen Unternehmen ähnlicher wird. Insgesamt leistet die vorliegende Studie einen Beitrag zur Analyse der Beziehung staatlicher Organisationen zu ihrer rechtlichen Umwelt.
Instrumental data show that the groundwater and lake levels in Northeast Germany have decreased over the past decades, and this process has accelerated over the past few years. In addition to global warming, the direct influence of humans on the local water balance is suspected to be the cause. Since the instrumental data usually go back only a few decades, little is known about the multidecadal to centennial-scale trend, which also takes long-term climate variation and the long-term influence by humans on the water balance into account. This study aims to quantitatively reconstruct the surface water areas in the Lower Havel Inner Delta and of adjacent Lake Gulpe in Brandenburg. The analysis includes the calculation of surface water areas from historical and modern maps from 1797 to 2020. The major finding is that surface water areas have decreased by approximately 30% since the pre-industrial period, with the decline being continuous. Our data show that the comprehensive measures in Lower Havel hydro-engineering correspond with groundwater lowering that started before recent global warming. Further, large-scale melioration measures with increasing water demands in the upstream wetlands beginning from the 1960s to the 1980s may have amplified the decline in downstream surface water areas.
forum:logopädie 30.2016, 4
(2016)
Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization
(2024)
Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.
Insights into the geographical origin and phylogeographical patterns of Paradisaea birds-of-paradise
(2022)
Birds-of-paradise represent a textbook example for geographical speciation and sexual selection. Perhaps the most iconic genus is Paradisaea, which is restricted to New Guinea and a few surrounding islands. Although several species concepts have been applied in the past to disentangle the different entities within this genus, no attempt has been made so far to uncover phylogeographical patterns based on a genetic dataset that includes multiple individuals per species. Here, we applied amplicon sequencing for the mitochondrial fragment Cytb for a total of 69 museum specimens representing all seven Paradisaea species described and inferred both phylogenetic relationships and colonization pathways across the island. Our analyses show that the most recent common ancestor of the diverging lineages within Paradisaea probably originated in the Late Miocene in the eastern part of the Central Range and suggest that tectonic processes played a key role in shaping the diversification and distribution of species. All species were recovered as monophyletic, except for those within the apoda-minor-raggiana clade, which comprises the allopatric and parapatric species P. apoda, P. minor and P. raggiana. The comparatively young divergence times, together with possible instances of mitochondrial introgression and incomplete lineage sorting, suggest recent speciation in this clade.
forum:logopädie 30.2016, 5
(2016)
Today, near-surface investigations are frequently conducted using non-destructive or minimally invasive methods of applied geophysics, particularly in the fields of civil engineering, archaeology, geology, and hydrology. One field that plays an increasingly central role in research and engineering is the examination of sedimentary environments, for example, for characterizing near-surface groundwater systems. A commonly employed method in this context is ground-penetrating radar (GPR). In this technique, short electromagnetic pulses are emitted into the subsurface by an antenna, which are then reflected, refracted, or scattered at contrasts in electromagnetic properties (such as the water table). A receiving antenna records these signals in terms of their amplitudes and travel times. Analysis of the recorded signals allows for inferences about the subsurface, such as the depth of the groundwater table or the composition and characteristics of near-surface sediment layers. Due to the high resolution of the GPR method and continuous technological advancements, GPR data acquisition is increasingly performed in three-dimensional (3D) fashion today.
Despite the considerable temporal and technical efforts involved in data acquisition and processing, the resulting 3D data sets (providing high-resolution images of the subsurface) are typically interpreted manually. This is generally an extremely time-consuming analysis step. Therefore, representative 2D sections highlighting distinctive reflection structures are often selected from the 3D data set. Regions showing similar structures are then grouped into so-called radar facies. The results obtained from 2D sections are considered representative of the entire investigated area. Interpretations conducted in this manner are often incomplete and highly dependent on the expertise of the interpreters, making them generally non-reproducible.
A promising alternative or complement to manual interpretation is the use of GPR attributes. Instead of using the recorded data directly, derived quantities characterizing distinctive reflection structures in 3D are applied for interpretation. Using various field and synthetic data sets, this thesis investigates which attributes are particularly suitable for this purpose. Additionally, the study demonstrates how selected attributes can be utilized through specific processing and classification methods to create 3D facies models. The ability to generate attribute-based 3D GPR facies models allows for partially automated and more efficient interpretations in the future. Furthermore, the results obtained in this manner describe the subsurface in a reproducible and more comprehensive manner than what has typically been achievable through manual interpretation methods.
A dataset of 2184 field measurements reported in the literature was used to evaluate the predictive capability of eight conventional flow resistance equations to predict the mean flow velocity in gravel-bed rivers. The results reveal considerable disagreement with the observed flow velocities for relative submergence less than 4 and for the non-uniformity of the bed material greater than 7.5 for all the equations. However, the predictions made using the Smart and Jaggi (1983), Ferguson (2007), and Rickenmann and Recking (2011) equations were closer to the observed values. Furthermore, bedload sediment transport also reduces the predictive capability of the equations considered in this study except for the Recking et al. (2008) equation, which was developed consid- ering active bedload transport. The performance of flow resistance equations improves when corrected by considering the geometric standard deviation of the bed material. Here we present an empirical approach using the whole dataset and its subsets for accounting for the additional energy losses occurring due to the wake vortices, spill losses, and free surface instabilities occurring due to the protrusions from the bed. The results obtained using the validation dataset shows the importance and usefulness of this approach to account for the additional energy losses, especially for the Strickler (1923) and Keulegan (1938) equations.
Statistical distributions of flood peak discharge often show heavy tail behavior, that is, extreme floods are more likely to occur than would be predicted by commonly used distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior.
This heavy tail behavior may surprise flood managers and citizens, as human intuition tends to expect light tail behavior, and the heaviness of the tails is very difficult to predict, which may lead to unnecessarily high flood damage.
Despite its high importance, the literature on the heavy tail behavior of flood distributions is rather fragmented.
In this review, we provide a coherent overview of the processes causing heavy flood tails and the implications for science and practice.
Specifically, we propose nine hypotheses on the mechanisms causing heavy tails in flood peak distributions related to processes in the atmosphere, the catchment, and the river system.
We then discuss to which extent the current knowledge supports or contradicts these hypotheses.
We also discuss the statistical conditions for the emergence of heavy tail behavior based on derived distribution theory and relate them to the hypotheses and flood generation mechanisms.
We review the degree to which the heaviness of the tails can be predicted from process knowledge and data. Finally, we recommend further research toward testing the hypotheses and improving the prediction of heavy tails.
Continuous pollen and chironomid records from Lake Emanda (65 degrees 17'N, 135 degrees 45'E) provide new insights into the Late Quaternary environmental history of the Yana Highlands (Yakutia). Larch forest with shrubs (alders, pines, birches) dominated during the deposition of the lowermost sediments suggesting its Early Weichselian [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5] age. Pollen- and chironomid-based climate reconstructions suggest July temperatures (T-July) slightly lower than modern. Gradually increasing amounts of herb pollen and cold stenotherm chironomid head capsules reflect cooler and drier environments, probably during the termination of MIS 5. T-July dropped to 8 degrees C. Mostly treeless vegetation is reconstructed during MIS 3. Tundra and steppe communities dominated during MIS 2. Shrubs became common after similar to 14.5 ka BP but herb-dominated habitats remained until the onset of the Holocene. Larch forests with shrub alder and dwarf birch dominated after the Holocene onset, ca. 11.7 ka BP. Decreasing amounts of shrub pollen during the Lateglacial are assigned to the Older Dryas and Younger Dryas with T-July similar to 7.5 degrees C. T-July increased up to 13 degrees C. Shrub stone pine was present after similar to 7.5 ka BP. The vegetation has been similar to modern since ca. 5.8 ka BP. Chironomid diversity and concentration in the sediments increased towards the present day, indicating the development of richer hydrobiological communities in response to the Holocene thermal maximum.
1. Der Staat ist nach dem Krankenhausfinanzierungsgesetz und dem Grundgesetz zur funktionsgerechten Finanzierung der in den Krankenhausplan eines Landes aufgenommenen (Plan-)Krankenhäuser verpflichtet. Um die Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit Krankenhausbehandlung sicherzustellen, müssen die Länder sämtliche bei wirtschaftlicher Betriebsführung notwendigen Investitionskosten der Plankrankenhäuser decken (§ 1 Abs. 1, § 4 Nr. 1, § 9 Abs. 5 KHG, Art. 12 Abs. 1 GG). Es gilt das Kostendeckungsprinzip. Die Sozialleistungsträger müssen Krankenhäuser durch leistungsgerechte Erlöse aus den Pflegesätzen wirtschaftlich sichern (§ 1 Abs. 1, § 4 Nr. 2 KHG, Art. 12 Abs. 1 GG).
2. Die Vergütung der Krankenhäuser durch die Sozialleistungsträger ist unzureichend. Die Fallpauschalen des DRG-Systems bleiben hinter dem zur Betriebskostenfinanzierung erforderlichen Maß zurück, weil die anhaltenden Preissteigerungen in den Landesbasisfallwerten nicht ausreichend berücksichtigt sind.
3. Die Länder kommen ihrer gesetzlichen und verfassungsrechtlichen Verpflichtung zur Übernahme der notwendigen Investitionskosten der Plankrankenhäuser seit vielen Jahren ungenügend nach.
4. Vor allem Kommunen, aber auch Länder gewähren staatlichen Krankenhäusern Ausgleichsleistungen wie Jahresfehlbetragsdeckungen, Investitions- und Betriebskostenzuschüsse, Eigenkapitalerhöhungen, zinsvergünstigte Darlehen, kostenfreie Bürgschaften und Liquiditätshilfen (sog. Defizitausgleich). Eine weitere Form des selektiven Defizitausgleichs ist die Übernahme der Kosten von Entlastungstarifverträgen staatlicher Kliniken durch Länder. Freigemeinnützige und private Krankenhäuser erhalten bislang keinen solchen Defizitausgleich.
5. Der selektive Defizitausgleich eines Landes nur für staatliche Krankenhäuser verstößt gegen das gesetzliche (§ 1 Abs. 2 S. 1 und 2 KHG) und verfassungsrechtliche (Art. 12 Abs. 1 i.V.m. Art. 3 Abs. 1 GG) Gebot der Gleichbehandlung der Plankrankenhäuser (Prinzip der Trägervielfalt). Er ist des halb rechts- und verfassungswidrig.
6. Ein selektiver Defizitausgleich von Kommunen nur für eigene (kommunale) Krankenhäuser verstößt gegen das landesgesetzliche Prinzip der Trägervielfalt und das Gleichbehandlungsgebot des Art. 3 Abs. 1 GG und ist somit unzulässig.
7. Auf eigene Krankenhäuser beschränkte Ausgleichsleistungen von Kommunen oder Ländern sind eine unzulässige Beihilfe i.S.d. Art. 107 Abs. 1 AEUV und deshalb unvereinbar mit dem EU-Beihilferecht. Das gilt sowohl, wenn staatliche Krankenhäuser Ausgleichsleistungen für die Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit Krankenhausbehandlung (s. § 109 Abs. 1 S. 1 und 2, Abs. 4 S. 2 SGB V) erhalten, als auch, wenn der Ausgleich „Gegenleistung“ für eine hoheitlich auferlegte Betriebspflicht ist. Eine wirksame Durchsetzung des EU-Beihilferechts und effektiver Rechtsschutz für nicht begünstigte freigemeinnützige und private Krankenhäuser erfordern Transparenz und eine entsprechende Veröffentlichung der Betrauungsakte der Länder und Kommunen.
8. Ein Defizitausgleich für alle in den Krankenhausplan eines Landes aufgenommenen (Plan-)Krankenhäuser ist beihilferechtlich zulässig. Da sämtliche Plankrankenhäuser Dienstleistungen von allgemeinem wirtschaftlichen Interesse (DAWI) erbringen (gesetzliche Pflicht zur Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit Krankenhausbehandlung), müssen sie nach dem EU-Beihilferecht bei staatlichen Ausgleichsleistungen für die Erfüllung der Versorgungspflicht gleichbehandelt werden. Art. 107 Abs. 1 AEUV ist entsprochen, wenn entweder ein selektiver Defizitausgleich für staatliche Plankrankenhäuser unterbleibt bzw. aufgehoben und rückabgewickelt wird oder alle – staatlichen, freigemeinnützigen und privaten Plankrankenhäuser – gleichgefördert werden.
9. Diese nach dem EU-Beihilferecht bestehende Wahlmöglichkeit kann den Ländern nach nationalem Recht verschlossen sein. Ein Ausgleich der Länder für Investitionskosten ist prinzipiell erforderlich, um der gesetzlichen Verpflichtung aus § 1 Abs. 1, § 4 Nr. 1, § 9 Abs. 5 KHG nachzukommen und die notwendigen Investitionskosten der Plankrankenhäuser unter Beachtung betriebswirtschaftlicher Grundsätze zu decken. Freigemeinnützige und private Krankenhäuser haben Anspruch auf Ausgleichsleistungen zur Investitionskostendeckung bereits wegen des gesetzlichen Gebots funktionsgerechter Finanzierung (§ 8 Abs. 1 S. 1 KHG) und aus ihrem Grundrecht der Berufsfreiheit (Art. 12 Abs. 1 GG). Ihnen kann dieser Anspruch aber auch wegen des gesetzlichen und verfassungsrechtlichen Gebots der Gleichbehandlung zustehen. Gewähren die Länder staatlichen Plankrankenhäusern bei wirtschaftlicher Betriebsführung Ausgleichsleistungen, um ihrer Verpflichtung zur Übernahme notwendiger Investitionskosten nachzukommen, müssen sie freigemeinnützigen und privaten Plankrankenhäusern nach dem Gleichbehandlungsgebot einen entsprechenden Ausgleich zahlen (§ 8 Abs. 1 S. 1 i.V.m. § 1 Abs. 2 S. 1 und 2 KHG, Art. 12 Abs. 1 i.V.m. Art. 3 Abs. 1 GG). Einer nach nationalem Recht gebotenen, gleichen Förderung aller Plankrankenhäuser steht das EU-Beihilferecht nicht entgegen.
10. Die Kommunen sind dagegen nach nationalem Recht (über die Krankenhausumlage hinaus) nicht zur Krankenhausfinanzierung verpflichtet. Sie entscheiden gem. Art. 28 Abs. 2 S. 1 GG (Gemeinden) bzw. gem. Art. 28 Abs. 2 S. 2 GG i.V.m. Landeskrankenhausrecht (Gemeindeverbände) eigenverantwortlich, ob und in welchem Umfang sie Plankrankenhäuser unter Beachtung des Wirtschaftlichkeitsgebots finanziell unterstützen (Investitions- und Betriebskosten). Dementsprechend engt das nationale Recht die nach EU-Beihilferecht bestehende Wahlmöglichkeit für Kommunen nicht ein, selektive Ausgleichsleistungen für kommunale Krankenhäuser zu unterlassen bzw. aufzuheben und rückabzuwickeln oder sie so umzugestalten, dass freigemeinnützige und private Plankrankenhäuser die gleiche Förderung erhalten. Scheidet allerdings eine Rückzahlung der von Kommunen an ihre Krankenhäuser gezahlten Finanzmittel wegen tatsächlicher Unmöglichkeit aus, wird dem EU-Beihilferecht nur entsprochen, wenn die Kommunen freigemeinnützige und private Plankrankenhäuser gleichermaßen fördern.
11. Ohne eine Nachzahlung der in den letzten Jahren unterbliebenen Förderung durch die Sozialleistungsträger und die Länder ist die anstehende Krankenhausreform für die Krankenhäuser nicht zu bewältigen. Um die geplante Umstellung auf neue Versorgungslevel und Leistungsgruppen vornehmen und die hiermit verbundenen kostenintensiven Umstrukturierungsprozesse leisten zu können, muss die infolge unzureichender Krankenhausfinanzierung entstandene Unterfinanzierung der Krankenhäuser vor der Reform behoben werden. Die Forderungen nach „Vorschaltgesetzen“ sind daher berechtigt.
Effect of temperature on the densification of silicate melts to lower earth's mantle conditions
(2022)
Physical properties of silicate melts play a key role for global planetary dynamics, controlling for example volcanic eruption styles, mantle convection and elemental cycling in the deep Earth. They are significantly modified by structural changes at the atomic scale due to external parameters such as pressure and temperature or due to chemistry. Structural rearrangements such as 4- to 6-fold coordination change of Si with increasing depth may profoundly influence melt properties, but have so far mostly been studied at ambient temperature due to experimental difficulties. In order to investigate the structural properties of silicate melts and their densification mechanisms at conditions relevant to the deep Earth's interior, we studied haplo basaltic glasses and melts (albite-diopside composition) at high pressure and temperature conditions in resistively and laser-heated diamond anvil cells using X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy. Samples were doped with 10 wt% of Ge, which is accessible with this experimental technique and which commonly serves as a structural analogue for the network forming cation Si. We acquired spectra on the Ge K edge up to 48 GPa and 5000 K and derived the average Ge-O coordination number NGe-O, and bond distance RGe-O as functions of pressure. Our results demonstrate a continuous transformation from tetrahedral to octahedral coordination between ca. 5 and 30 GPa at ambient temperature. Above 1600 K the data reveal a reduction of the pressure needed to complete conversion to octahedral coordination by ca. 30 %. The results allow us to determine the influence of temperature on the Si coordination number changes in natural melts in the Earth's interior. We propose that the complete transition to octahedral coordination in basaltic melts is reached at about 40 GPa, corresponding to a depth of ca. 1200 km in the uppermost lower mantle. At the core-mantle boundary (2900 km, 130 GPa, 3000 K) the existence of non-buoyant melts has been proposed to explain observed low seismic wave velocity features. Our results highlight that the melt composition can affect the melt density at such extreme conditions and may strongly influence the structural response.
The H alpha spectral line is a well-studied absorption line revealing properties of the highly structured and dynamic solar chromosphere. Typical features with distinct spectral signatures in H alpha include filaments and prominences, bright active-region plages, superpenumbrae around sunspots, surges, flares, Ellerman bombs, filigree, and mottles and rosettes, among others. This study is based on high-spectral resolution H alpha spectra obtained with the Echelle spectrograph of the Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT) located at Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, Spain. The t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) is a machine-learning algorithm, which is used for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. In this application, it projects H alpha spectra onto a two-dimensional map, where it becomes possible to classify the spectra according to results of cloud model (CM) inversions. The CM parameters optical depth, Doppler width, line-of-sight velocity, and source function describe properties of the cloud material. Initial results of t-SNE indicate its strong discriminatory power to separate quiet-Sun and plage profiles from those that are suitable for CM inversions. In addition, a detailed study of various t-SNE parameters is conducted, the impact of seeing conditions on the classification is assessed, results for various types of input data are compared, and the identified clusters are linked to chromospheric features. Although t-SNE proves to be efficient in clustering high-dimensional data, human inference is required at each step to interpret the results. This exploratory study provides a framework and ideas on how to tailor a classification scheme toward specific spectral data and science questions.
Die Mehrheit aktueller Studien schätzt das Transformationspotenzial digitaler Technologien für Organisationen hoch ein. In Auseinandersetzung mit dieser Einschätzung entwickelt der Artikel eine konzeptionelle organisationssoziologische Perspektive auf das Verhältnis von Organisation und digitalen Technologien. Wir nutzen diese Perspektive, um den Fall des Predictive Policing in Deutschland zu betrachten und die Entscheidung zur Adaption der Technologie, ihre organisationale Situierung sowie die Rolle des Organisationstyps zu diskutieren. Unsere Perspektive führt zu einem zurückhaltenden Urteil über das Transformationspotenzial dieser digitalen Technologie, die wir daher als Reform unter anderen Reformen begreifen. Insgesamt argumentieren wir dafür, Digitalisierung stärker als bisher als heterogenen Prozess zu verstehen.
forum:logopädie 30.2016, 6
(2016)
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 1
(2017)
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 2
(2017)
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 3
(2017)
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 4
(2017)
Climate change projections predict that Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) are becoming hotter and drier and that fires will become more frequent and severe.
While most plant species in these important biodiversity hotspots are adapted to hot, dry summers and recurrent fire, the Interval Squeeze framework suggests that reduced seed production (demographic shift), reduced seedling establishment after fire (post fire recruitment shift), and reduction in the time between successive fires (fire interval shift) will threaten fire killed species under climate change.
One additional potential driver of accelerated species decline, however, has not been considered so far: the decrease in pollination success observed in many ecosystems worldwide has the potential to further reduce seed accumulation and thus population persistence also in these already threatened systems.
Using the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species Banksia hookeriana as an example, we apply a new spatially implicit population simulation model to explore population dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climate conditions, deterministic and stochastic fire regimes, and alternative scenarios of pollination decline.
Overall, model results suggest that while B. hookeriana populations were stable under past climate conditions, they will not continue to persist under current (and prospective future) climate.
Negative effects of climatic changes and more frequent fires are reinforced by the measured decline in seed set leading to further reduction in the mean persistence time by 12-17%.
These findings clearly indicate that declining pollination rates can be a critical factor that increases further the pressure on the persistence of fire-killed plants.
Future research needs to investigate whether other fire-killed species are similarly threatened, and if local population extinction may be compensated by recolonization events, facilitating persistence in spatially structured meta-communities.
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 5
(2017)
forum:logopädie 31.2017, 6
(2017)
forum:logopädie 32.2018, 1
(2018)
The radiation-sensitive field-effect transistors (RADFETs) with an oxide thickness of 400 nm are irradiated with gate voltages of 2, 4 and 6 V, and without gate voltage.
A detailed analysis of the mechanisms responsible for the creation of traps during irradiation is performed.
The creation of the traps in the oxide, near and at the silicon/silicon-dioxide (Si/SiO2) interface during irradiation is modelled very well. This modelling can also be used for other MOS transistors containing SiO2.
The behaviour of radiation traps during postirradiation annealing is analysed, and the corresponding functions for their modelling are obtained. The switching traps (STs) do not have significant influence on threshold voltage shift, and two radiation-induced trap types fit the fixed traps (FTs) very well. The fading does not depend on the positive gate voltage applied during irradiation, but it is twice lower in case there is no gate voltage.
A new dosimetric parameter, called the Golden Ratio (GR), is proposed, which represents the ratio between the threshold voltage shift after irradiation and fading after spontaneous annealing. This parameter can be useful for comparing MOS dosimeters.
forum:logopädie 32.2018, 2
(2018)
The formation of large polarons has been proposed as reason for the high defect tolerance, low mobility, low charge carrier trapping, and low nonradiative recombination rates of lead halide perovskites. Recently, direct evidence for large-polaron formation has been reported from a 50% effective mass enhancement in angle-resolved photoemission of CsPbBr3 over theory for the orthorhombic structure. We present in-depth band dispersion measurements of CsPbBr3 and GW calculations, which lead to similar effective masses at the valence band maximum of 0.203 1 0.016 m0 in experiment and 0.226 m0 in orthorhombic theory. We argue that the effective mass can be explained solely on the basis of electron-electron correlation and largepolaron formation cannot be concluded from photoemission data.
forum:logopädie 32.2018, 3
(2018)
Care work 4.0
(2022)
Care-Berufe verändern sich durch demographische, technologische und wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen. Zuletzt erhöhen auch gesundheitspolitische Herausforderungen und die COVID-19 Maßnahmenpolitik den Druck auf das Sozial- und Gesundheitssystem. Dadurch befindet sich die bezahlte Care-Arbeit im berufsstrukturellen Wandel, d. h. es entstehen neue Bedingungen für und Anforderungen an diese Tätigkeiten, die in Österreich mehrheitlich von Frauen ausgeübt werden.
Das Buch analysiert die sicherheitsbehördlichen Ermittlungen zu der rechten Terrorgruppe „Nationalsozialistischer Untergrund“ aus einer Routine- und Lernperspektive. Im Fokus stehen die Ermittlungen der thüringischen Sicherheitsbehörden ab 1998 sowie die bundesweiten polizeilichen Ermittlungen ab 2000. Die Analyse zeigt, dass es jeweils organisationale Faktoren waren, die den Misserfolg der Ermittlungen begünstigten: die sicherheitsbehördlichen Ermittlungsroutinen wurden durch Aufmerksamkeitsverschiebungen unsystematisch, durch mikropolitische Konflikte beeinträchtigt und durch vergangene Erfahrungen limitiert, die zu enge Prämissen für gegenwärtige Ermittlungen setzten. Insgesamt verdeutlicht die Studie, dass eine organisationssoziologische Perspektive auf die Ermittlungen einen entscheidenden Beitrag zum Verständnis des NSU-Komplexes bietet.
- der Ermittlungsfall NSU erstmal organisationssoziologisch analysisiert
- Untersuchung von Führungsfragen und Polizeikultur
- theoretischer innovativer Ansatz in der Polizeiforschung
forum:logopädie 32.2018, 4
(2018)
Monitoring agricultural systems becomes increasingly important in the context of global challenges like climate change, biodiversity loss, population growth, and the rising demand for agricultural products. High-resolution, national-scale maps of agricultural land are needed to develop strategies for future sustainable agriculture.
However, the characterization of agricultural land cover over large areas and for multiple years remains challenging due to the locally diverse and temporally variable characteristics of cultivated land.
We here propose a workflow for generating national agricultural land cover maps on a yearly basis that accounts for varying environmental conditions. We tested the approach by mapping 24 agricultural land cover classes in Germany for the three years 2017, 2018, and 2019, in which the meteorological conditions strongly differed.
We used a random forest classifier and dense time series data from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 in combination with monthly Sentinel-1 composites and environmental data and evaluated the relative importance of optical, radar, and environmental data.
Our results show high overall accuracy and plausible class accuracies for the most dominant crop types across different years despite the strong inter-annual meteorological variability and the presence of drought and nondrought years. The maps show high spatial consistency and good delineation of field parcels.
Combining optical, SAR, and environmental data increased overall accuracies by 6% to 10% compared to single sensor approaches, in which optical data outperformed SAR. Overall accuracy ranged between 78% and 80%, and the mapped areas aligned well with agricultural statistics at the regional and national level.
Based on the multi-year dataset we mapped major crop sequences of cereals and leaf crops. Most crop sequences were dominated by winter cereals followed by summer cereals.
Monocultures of summer cereals were mainly revealed in the Northwest of Germany. We showcased that high spatial and thematic detail in combination with annual mapping will stimulate research on crop cycles and studies to assess the impact of environmental policies on management decisions.
Our results demonstrate the capabilities of integrated optical time series and SAR data in combination with variables describing local and seasonal environmental conditions for annual large-area crop type mapping.
The past three decades of policy process studies have seen the emergence of a clear intellectual lineage with regard to complexity. Implicitly or explicitly, scholars have employed complexity theory to examine the intricate dynamics of collective action in political contexts. However, the methodological counterparts to complexity theory, such as computational methods, are rarely used and, even if they are, they are often detached from established policy process theory. Building on a critical review of the application of complexity theory to policy process studies, we present and implement a baseline model of policy processes using the logic of coevolving networks. Our model suggests that an actor's influence depends on their environment and on exogenous events facilitating dialogue and consensus-building. Our results validate previous opinion dynamics models and generate novel patterns. Our discussion provides ground for further research and outlines the path for the field to achieve a computational turn.
forum:logopädie 32.2018, 5
(2018)
Social theory has long predicted that social mobility, in particular downward social mobility, is detrimental to the well-being of individuals. Dissociative and “falling from grace” theories suggest that mobility is stressful due to the weakening of social ties, feelings of alienation, and loss of status. In light of these theories, it is a puzzle that the majority of quantitative studies in this area have shown null results. Our approach to resolve the puzzle is two-fold. First, we argue for a broader conception of the mobility process than is often used and thus focus on intragenerational occupational class mobility rather than restricting ourselves to the more commonly studied intergenerational mobility. Second, we argue that self-reported measures may be biased by habituation (or “entrenched deprivation”). Using nurse-collected health and biomarker data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2010–2012, N = 4,123), we derive a measure of allostatic load as an objective gauge of physiological “wear and tear” and compare patterns of mobility effects with self-reports of health using diagonal reference models. Our findings indicate a strong class gradient in both allostatic load and self-rated health, and that both first and current job matter for current well-being outcomes. However, in terms of the effects of mobility itself, we find that intragenerational social mobility is consequential for allostatic load, but not for self-rated health. Downward mobility is detrimental and upward mobility beneficial for well-being as assessed by allostatic load. Thus, these findings do not support the idea of generalized stress from dissociation, but they do support the “falling from grace” hypothesis of negative downward mobility effects. Our findings have a further implication, namely that the differences in mobility effects between the objective and subjective outcome infer the presence of entrenched deprivation. Null results in studies of self-rated outcomes may therefore be a methodological artifact, rather than an outright rejection of decades-old social theory.
Despite advanced seismological techniques, automatic source characterization for microseismic earthquakes remains difficult and challenging since current inversion and modelling of high-frequency signals are complex and time consuming. For real-time applications such as induced seismicity monitoring, the application of standard methods is often not fast enough for true complete real-time information on seismic sources. In this paper, we present an alternative approach based on recent advances in deep learning for rapid source-parameter estimation of microseismic earthquakes. The seismic inversion is represented in compact form by two convolutional neural networks, with individual feature extraction, and a fully connected neural network, for feature aggregation, to simultaneously obtain full moment tensor and spatial location of microseismic sources. Specifically, a multibranch neural network algorithm is trained to encapsulate the information about the relationship between seismic waveforms and underlying point-source mechanisms and locations. The learning-based model allows rapid inversion (within a fraction of second) once input data are available. A key advantage of the algorithm is that it can be trained using synthetic seismic data only, so it is directly applicable to scenarios where there are insufficient real data for training. Moreover, we find that the method is robust with respect to perturbations such as observational noise and data incompleteness (missing stations). We apply the new approach on synthesized and example recorded small magnitude (M <= 1.6) earthquakes at the Hellisheioi geothermal field in the Hengill area, Iceland. For the examined events, the model achieves excellent performance and shows very good agreement with the inverted solutions determined through standard methodology. In this study, we seek to demonstrate that this approach is viable for microseismicity real-time estimation of source parameters and can be integrated into advanced decision-support tools for controlling induced seismicity.
Reconstructing thermal histories in thrust belts is commonly used to infer the age and rates of thrusting and hence the driving mechanisms of orogenesis.
In areas where ancient basins have been incorporated into the orogenic wedge, a quantitative reconstruction of the thermal history helps distinguish among potential mechanisms responsible for heating events.
We present such a reconstruction for the Ischigualasto-Villa Union basin in the western Pampean Ranges of Argentina, where Triassic rifting and late Cretaceous-Cenozoic retroarc foreland basin development has been widely documented, including Miocene flat-slab subduction.
We report results of organic and inorganic thermal indicators acquired along three stratigraphic sections, including vitrinite reflectance and X-ray diffractometry in claystones and new thermochronological [(apatite fission-track and apatite and zircon [U-Th]/He)] analyses.
Despite up to 5 km-thick Cenozoic overburden and unlike previously thought, the thermal peak in the basin is not due to Cenozoic burial but occurred in the Triassic, associated with a high heat flow of up to 90 mWm(-2) and <2 km of burial, which heated the base of the Triassic strata to similar to 160 degrees C. Following exhumation, attested by the development of an unconformity between the Triassic and Late-Cretaceous-Cenozoic sequences, Cenozoic re-burial increased the temperature to similar to 110 degrees C at the base of the Triassic section and only similar to 50 degrees C 7 km upsection, suggesting a dramatic decrease in the thermal gradient.
The onset of Cenozoic cooling occurred at similar to 10(-8) Ma, concomitant with sediment accumulation and thus preceding the latest Miocene onset of thrusting that has been independently documented by stratigraphic-cross-cutting relationships.
We argue that the onset of cooling is associated with lithospheric refrigeration following establishment of flat-slab subduction, leading to the eastward displacement of the asthenospheric wedge beneath the South American plate.
Our study places time and temperature constraints on flat-slab cooling that calls for a careful interpretation of exhumation signals in thrustbelts inferred from thermochronology only.
Living alone in the city
(2023)
Over the past decades, the number of single households is constantly rising in metropolitan regions. In addition, they became increasingly heterogeneous. In the media, individuals who live alone are sometimes still presented as deficient. Recent research, however, indicates a way more complex picture. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the quality of life of different groups of single households in the city. Based on five waves of the Viennese Quality of Life Survey covering almost a quarter of a century (1995–2018), we analyse six domains of subjective well-being (satisfaction with the financial situation, the housing situation, the main activity, the family life, social contacts, and leisure time activities). Our analyses reveal that, in most domains, average satisfaction of single households has hardly changed over time. However, among those living alone satisfaction of senior people (60+) increased while satisfaction of younger people (below age 30) decreased. Increasing differences in satisfaction with main activity, housing, or financial situation reflect general societal developments on the Viennese labour and housing markets. The old clichéd images of the “young, reckless, happy single” and the “lonely, poor, dissatisfied senior single” reverse reality.
Only a fast and global transformation towards decarbonization and sustainability can keep the Earth in a civilization-friendly state. As hotspots for (green) innovation and experimentation, cities could play an important role in this transition. They are also known to profit from each other's ideas, with policy and technology innovations spreading to other cities. In this way, cities can be conceptualized as nodes in a globe-spanning learning network. The dynamics of this process are important for society's response to climate change and other challenges, but remain poorly understood on a macroscopic level. In this contribution, we develop an approach to identify whether network-based complex contagion effects are a feature of sustainability policy adoption by cities, based on dose-response contagion and surrogate data models. We apply this methodology to an exemplary data set, comprising empirical data on the spreading of a public transport innovation (Bus Rapid Transit Systems) and a global inter-city connection network based on scheduled flight routes. Although our approach is not able to identify detailed mechanisms, our results point towards a contagious spreading process, and cannot be explained by either the network structure or the increase in global adoption rate alone. Further research on the role of a city's abstract "global neighborhood" regarding its policy and innovation decisions is thus both needed and promising, and may connect with research on social tipping processes. The methodology is generic, and can be used to compare the predictive power for innovation spreading of different kinds of inter-city network connections, e.g. via transport links, trade, or co-membership in political networks.
For many years scholars and politicians discuss the economic importance of the middle income class. Our article contributes to broaden the present state of research by not only examining the structure of the middle class whilst focusing on individual attributes, but by especially taking the role of gender-specific occupational characteristics and country-specific conditions into account. Based on the EU-SILC data 2020 for 17 countries, we analyze which factors affect the structure of the middle income class on the individual, on the occupational and country level. Our findings show that occupational attributes (e.g. part-time rate) prove to be highly relevant in this realm. Moreover, significant gender differences can be observed: women who work in an occupation which is mainly performed by women bear a higher risk of belonging to the lower income class as compared to men.
In this study, we reassessed the taxonomic position of Typhlomys (Rodentia: Platacanthomyidae) from Huangshan, Anhui, China, based on morphological and molecular evidence. Results suggested that Typhlomys is comprised of up to six species, including four currently recognized species ( Typhlomys cinereus, T. chapensis, T. daloushanensis, and T. nanus), one unconfirmed candidate species, and one new species ( Typhlomys huangshanensis sp. nov.). Morphological analyses further supported the designation of the Huangshan specimens found at mid-elevations in the southern Huangshan Mountains (600 m to 1 200 m a.s.l.) as a new species.
The determination of residual stresses becomes more complicated with increasing complexity of the structures investigated. Additive manufacturing techniques generally allow the production of 'lattice structures' without any additional manufacturing step. These lattice structures consist of thin struts and are thus susceptible to internal stress-induced distortion and even cracks. In most cases, internal stresses remain locked in the structures as residual stress. The determination of the residual stress in lattice structures through nondestructive neutron diffraction is described in this work. It is shown how two difficulties can be overcome: (a) the correct alignment of the lattice structures within the neutron beam and (b) the correct determination of the residual stress field in a representative part of the structure. The magnitude and the direction of residual stress are discussed. The residual stress in the strut was found to be uniaxial and to follow the orientation of the strut, while the residual stress in the knots was more hydrostatic. Additionally, it is shown that strain measurements in at least seven independent directions are necessary for the estimation of the principal stress directions. The measurement directions should be chosen according to the sample geometry and an informed choice on the possible strain field. If the most prominent direction is not measured, the error in the calculated stress magnitude increases considerably.
We investigate the effects of Markovian resetting events on continuous time random walks where the waiting times and the jump lengths are random variables distributed according to power-law probability density functions.
We prove the existence of a nonequilibrium stationary state and finite mean first arrival time.
However, the existence of an optimum reset rate is conditioned to a specific relationship between the exponents of both power-law tails.
We also investigate the search efficiency by finding the optimal random walk which minimizes the mean first arrival time in terms of the reset rate, the distance of the initial position to the target, and the characteristic transport exponents.
Many adults older than 60 yr experience mobility limitations. Although physical exercise improves older adults' mobility, differences in baseline mobility produce large variations in individual responses to interventions, and these responses could further vary by the type and dose of exercise. Here, we propose an exercise prescription model for older adults based on their current mobility status.
Structure, mechanical properties and degradation behavior of electrospun PEEU fiber meshes and films
(2021)
The capability of a degradable implant to provide mechanical support depends on its degradation behavior. Hydrolytic degradation was studied for a polyesteretherurethane (PEEU70), which consists of poly(p-dioxanone) (PPDO) and poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) segments with a weight ratio of 70:30 linked by diurethane junction units. PEEU70 samples prepared in the form of meshes with average fiber diameters of 1.5 mu m (mesh1.5) and 1.2 mu m (mesh1.2), and films were sterilized and incubated in PBS at 37 degrees C with 5 vol% CO2 supply for 1 to 6 weeks. Degradation features, such as cracks or wrinkles, became apparent from week 4 for all samples. Mass loss was found to be 11 wt%, 6 wt%, and 4 wt% for mesh1.2, mesh1.5, and films at week 6. The elongation at break decreased to under 20% in two weeks for mesh1.2. In case of the other two samples, this level of degradation was achieved after 4 weeks. The weight average molecular weight of both PEEU70 mesh and film samples decreased to below 30 kg/mol when elongation at break dropped below 20%. The time period of sustained mechanical stability of PEEU70-based meshes depends on the fiber diameter and molecular weight.
Leptonic nonthermal emission from supernova remnants evolving in the circumstellar magnetic field
(2022)
The very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission observed from a number of supernova remnants (SNRs) indicates particle acceleration to high energies at the shock of the remnants and a potentially significant contribution to Galactic cosmic rays. It is extremely difficult to determine whether protons (through hadronic interactions and subsequent pion decay) or electrons (through inverse Compton scattering on ambient photon fields) are responsible for this emission. For a successful diagnostic, a good understanding of the spatial and energy distribution of the underlying particle population is crucial. Most SNRs are created in core-collapse explosions and expand into the wind bubble of their progenitor stars. This circumstellar medium features a complex spatial distribution of gas and magnetic field which naturally strongly affects the resulting particle population. In this work, we conduct a detailed study of the spectro-spatial evolution of the electrons accelerated at the forward shock of core-collapse SNRs and their nonthermal radiation, using the RATPaC code that is designed for the time- and spatially dependent treatment of particle acceleration at SNR shocks. We focus on the impact of the spatially inhomogeneous magnetic field through the efficiency of diffusion and synchrotron cooling. It is demonstrated that the structure of the circumstellar magnetic field can leave strong signatures in the spectrum and morphology of the resulting nonthermal emission.
Context
For a given body mass index (BMI), both impaired metabolic health (MH) and reduced cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) associate with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD).
Objective
It remains unknown whether both risk phenotypes relate to CVD independently of each other, and whether these relationships differ in normal weight, overweight, and obese subjects.
Methods
Data from 421 participants from the Tubingen Diabetes Family Study, who had measurements of anthropometrics, metabolic parameters, CRF (maximal aerobic capacity [VO2max]) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), an early marker of atherosclerosis, were analyzed. Subjects were divided by BMI and MH status into 6 phenotypes.
Results
In univariate analyses, older age, increased BMI, and a metabolic risk profile correlated positively, while insulin sensitivity and VO2max negatively with cIMT. In multivariable analyses in obese subjects, older age, male sex, lower VO2max (std. ss -0.21, P = 0.002) and impaired MH (std. ss 0.13, P = 0.02) were independent determinants of increased cIMT. After adjustment for age and sex, subjects with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) had higher cIMT than subjects with metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW; 0.59 +/- 0.009 vs 0.52 +/- 0.01 mm; P < 0.05). When VO2max was additionally included in this model, the difference in cIMT between MHO and MHNW groups became statistically nonsignificant (0.58 +/- 0.009 vs 0.56 +/- 0.02 mm; P > 0.05).
Conclusion
These data suggest that impaired MH and low CRF independently determine increased cIMT in obese subjects and that low CRF may explain part of the increased CVD risk observed in MHO compared with MHNW.
Ultrafast X-ray diffraction is used to quantify the transport of energy in laser-excited nanoscale gold-nickel (Au-Ni) bilayers.
Electron transport and efficient electron-phonon coupling in Ni convert the laser-deposited energy in the conduction electrons within a few picoseconds into a strong non-equilibrium between hot Ni and cold Au phonons at the bilayer interface.
Modeling of the subsequent equilibration dynamics within various two-temperature models confirms that for ultrathin Au films, the thermal transport is dominated by phonons instead of conduction electrons because of the weak electron-phonon coupling in Au.
A novel approach for estimating precipitation patterns is developed here and applied to generate a new hydrologically corrected daily precipitation dataset, called RAIN4PE (Rain for Peru and Ecuador), at 0.1 degrees spatial resolution for the period 1981-2015 covering Peru and Ecuador. It is based on the application of 1) the random forest method to merge multisource precipitation estimates (gauge, satellite, and reanalysis) with terrain elevation, and 2) observed and modeled streamflow data to first detect biases and second further adjust gridded precipitation by inversely applying the simulated results of the ecohydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Hydrological results using RAIN4PE as input for the Peruvian and Ecuadorian catchments were compared against the ones when feeding other uncorrected (CHIRP and ERA5) and gauge-corrected (CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO) precipitation datasets into the model. For that, SWAT was calibrated and validated at 72 river sections for each dataset using a range of performance metrics, including hydrograph goodness of fit and flow duration curve signatures. Results showed that gauge-corrected precipitation datasets outperformed uncorrected ones for streamflow simulation. However, CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO showed limitations for streamflow simulation in several catchments draining into the Pacific Ocean and the Amazon River. RAIN4PE provided the best overall performance for streamflow simulation, including flow variability (low, high, and peak flows) and water budget closure. The overall good performance of RAIN4PE as input for hydrological modeling provides a valuable criterion of its applicability for robust countrywide hydrometeorological applications, including hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and floods. Significance StatementWe developed a novel precipitation dataset RAIN4PE for Peru and Ecuador by merging multisource precipitation data (satellite, reanalysis, and ground-based precipitation) with terrain elevation using the random forest method. Furthermore, RAIN4PE was hydrologically corrected using streamflow data in watersheds with precipitation underestimation through reverse hydrology. The results of a comprehensive hydrological evaluation showed that RAIN4PE outperformed state-of-the-art precipitation datasets such as CHIRP, ERA5, CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO in terms of daily and monthly streamflow simulations, including extremely low and high flows in almost all Peruvian and Ecuadorian catchments. This underlines the suitability of RAIN4PE for hydrometeorological applications in this region. Furthermore, our approach for the generation of RAIN4PE can be used in other data-scarce regions.
Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
(2021)
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice.
However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance.
To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions.
We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
Magnetic reconnection is a multi-faceted process of energy conversion in astrophysical, space and laboratory plasmas that operates at microscopic scales but has macroscopic drivers and consequences.
Solar flares present a key laboratory for its study, leaving imprints of the microscopic physics in radiation spectra and allowing the macroscopic evolution to be imaged, yet a full observational characterization remains elusive.
Here we combine high resolution imaging and spectral observations of a confined solar flare at multiple wavelengths with data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic modeling to study the dynamics of the flare plasma from the current sheet to the plasmoid scale. The analysis suggests that the flare resulted from the interaction of a twisted magnetic flux rope surrounding a filament with nearby magnetic loops whose feet are anchored in chromospheric fibrils. Bright cusp-shaped structures represent the region around a reconnecting separator or quasi-separator (hyperbolic flux tube).
The fast reconnection, which is relevant for other astrophysical environments, revealed plasmoids in the current sheet and separatrices and associated unresolved turbulent motions.
Solar flares provide wide range of observational details about fundamental processes involved. Here, the authors show evidence for magnetic reconnection in a strong confined solar flare displaying all four reconnection flows with plasmoids in the current sheet and the separatrices.
With the advent of Nanotechnology, the use of nanomaterials in consumer products is increasing on a daily basis, due to which a deep understanding and proper investigation regarding their safety and risk assessment should be a major priority. To date, there is no investigation regarding the microrheological properties of nanomaterials (NMs) in biological media.
In our study, we utilized in silico models to select the suitable NMs based on their physicochemical properties such as solubility and lipophilicity. Then, we established a new method based on dynamic light scattering (DLS) microrheology to get the mean square displacement (MSD) and viscoelastic property of two model NMs that are dendrimers and cerium dioxide nanoparticles in Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium (DMEM) complete media at three different concentrations for both NMs. Subsequently, we established the cytotoxicological profiling using water-soluble tetrazolium salt-1 (WST-1) and a reactive oxygen species (ROS) assay.
To take one step forward, we further looked into the tight junction properties of the cells using immunostaining with Zonula occluden-1 (ZO-1) antibodies and found that the tight junction function or transepithelial resistance (TEER) was affected in response to the microrheology and cytotoxicity. The quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) results in the gene expression of ZO-1 after the 24 h treatment with NPs further validates the findings of immunostaining results.
This new method that we established will be a reference point for other NM studies which are used in our day-to-day consumer products.
Obesity has been linked to lower concentrations of fat-soluble micronutrients and higher concentrations of oxidative stress markers as well as an altered metabolism of branched chain amino acids and phospholipids. In the context of morbid obesity, the aim of this study was to investigate whether and to which extent plasma status of micronutrients, amino acids, phospholipids and oxidative stress differs between morbidly obese (n = 23) and non-obese patients (n = 13). In addition to plasma, malondialdehyde, retinol, cholesterol and triglycerides were assessed in visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue in both groups. Plasma gamma-tocopherol was significantly lower (p < 0.011) in the obese group while other fat-soluble micronutrients showed no statistically significant differences between both groups. Branched-chain amino acids (all p < 0.008) and lysine (p < 0.006) were significantly higher in morbidly obese patients compared to the control group. Malondialdehyde concentrations in both visceral (p < 0.016) and subcutaneous (p < 0.002) adipose tissue were significantly higher in the morbidly obese group while plasma markers of oxidative stress showed no significant differences between both groups. Significantly lower plasma concentrations of phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine, lyso-phosphatidylethanolamine (all p < 0.05) and their corresponding ether-linked analogs were observed, which were all reduced in obese participants compared to the control group. Pre-operative assessment of micronutrients in patients undergoing bariatric surgery is recommended for early identification of patients who might be at higher risk to develop a severe micronutrient deficiency post-surgery. Assessment of plasma BCAAs and phospholipids in obese patients might help to differentiate between metabolic healthy patients and those with metabolic disorders.
Taxed fairly?
(2023)
Empirically, the poor are more likely to support increases in the level of tax progressivity than the rich. Such income-stratified tax preferences can result from differences in preferences of what should be taxed as argued by previous literature. However, it may also result from income-stratified perceptions of what is taxed. This paper argues that the rich perceive higher levels of tax progressivity than the poor and that tax perceptions affect individuals’ support for progressive taxation. Using data from an Austrian survey experiment, we test this argument in three steps: First, in line with past research, we show that individuals’ income positions are connected to individuals’ tax preferences as a self-interest rationale would predict. However, second, we show that this variation is mainly driven by income-stratified tax perceptions. Third, randomly informing a subset of the sample about actual tax rates, we find that changing tax perceptions causally affects support for redistributive taxation among those who initially overestimated the level of tax progressivity. Our results indicate that tax perceptions are relevant for forming tax preferences and suggest that individuals are more polarized in their perceptions of who pays how much taxes than in their support for who should pay how much tax.
Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic in response to the warming climate. The impact on arctic plant communities is not well understood due to the limited knowledge about plant assembly rules.
Records of past plant diversity over long time series are rare. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding targeting the P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka, Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years.
Our results show that forb-rich steppe-tundra and dwarf-shrub tundra dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period since 14 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka, where the vegetation biomass could be highest.
We reveal highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-9 ka, with both periods being accompanied by low relative abundance of shrubs. During the cold period before 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting low genetic divergence in the assemblages despite the great number of species. This probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation due to limited resources under harsh environmental conditions. In contrast, during the warmer period after 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed.
This results from a high number of species which were found to harbor high genetic divergence, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Some of our evidence may be of relevance for inferring future arctic plant assembly rules and diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. Plant richness might overshoot in the short term; in the long-term, however, the ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community.