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The thesis comprises three experimental studies, which were carried out to unravel the short- as well as the long-term mechanical properties of shale rocks. Short-term mechanical properties such as compressive strength and Young’s modulus were taken from recorded stress-strain curves of constant strain rate tests. Long-term mechanical properties are represented by the time– dependent creep behavior of shales. This was obtained from constant stress experiments, where the test duration ranged from a couple minutes up to two weeks. A profound knowledge of the mechanical behavior of shales is crucial to reliably estimate the potential of a shale reservoir for an economical and sustainable extraction of hydrocarbons (HC). In addition, healing of clay-rich forming cap rocks involving creep and compaction is important for underground storage of carbon dioxide and nuclear waste.
Chapter 1 introduces general aspects of the research topic at hand and highlights the motivation for conducting this study. At present, a shift from energy recovered from conventional resources e.g., coal towards energy provided by renewable resources such as wind or water is a big challenge. Gas recovered from unconventional reservoirs (shale plays) is considered a potential bridge technology.
In Chapter 2, short-term mechanical properties of two European mature shale rocks are presented, which were determined from constant strain rate experiments performed at ambient and in situ deformation conditions (confining pressure, pc ≤ 100 MPa, temperature, T ≤ 125 °C, representing pc, T - conditions at < 4 km depth) using a Paterson– type gas deformation apparatus. The investigated shales were mainly from drill core material of Posidonia (Germany) shale and weathered material of Bowland (United Kingdom) shale. The results are compared with mechanical properties of North American shales. Triaxial compression tests performed perpendicular to bedding revealed semibrittle deformation behavior of Posidonia shale with pronounced inelastic deformation. This is in contrast to Bowland shale samples that deformed brittle and displayed predominantly elastic deformation. The static Young’s modulus, E, and triaxial compressive strength, σTCS, determined from recorded stress-strain curves strongly depended on the applied confining pressure and sample composition, whereas the influence of temperature and strain rate on E and σTCS was minor. Shales with larger amounts of weak minerals (clay, mica, total organic carbon) yielded decreasing E and σTCS. This may be related to a shift from deformation supported by a load-bearing framework of hard phases (e.g., quartz) towards deformation of interconnected weak minerals, particularly for higher fractions of about 25 – 30 vol% weak phases. Comparing mechanical properties determined at reservoir conditions with mechanical data applying effective medium theories revealed that E and σTCS of Posidonia and Bowland shale are close to the lower (Reuss) bound. Brittleness B is often quoted as a measure indicating the response of a shale formation to stimulation and economic production. The brittleness, B, of Posidonia and Bowland shale, estimated from E, is in good agreement with the experimental results. This correlation may be useful to predict B from sonic logs, from which the (dynamic) Young’s modulus can be retrieved.
Chapter 3 presents a study of the long-term creep properties of an immature Posidonia shale. Constant stress experiments (σ = const.) were performed at elevated confining pressures (pc = 50 – 200 MPa) and temperatures (T = 50 – 200 °C) to simulate reservoir pc, T - conditions. The Posidonia shale samples were acquired from a quarry in South Germany. At stresses below ≈ 84 % compressive strength of Posidonia shale, at high temperature and low confining pressure, samples showed pronounced transient (primary) creep with high deformation rates in the semibrittle regime. Sample deformation was mainly accommodated by creep of weak sample constituents and pore space reduction. An empirical power law relation between strain and time, which also accounts for the influence of pc, T and σ on creep strain was formulated to describe the primary creep phase. Extrapolation of the results to a creep period of several years, which is the typical time interval for a large production decline, suggest that fracture closure is unlikely at low stresses. At high stresses as expected for example at the contact between the fracture surfaces and proppants added during stimulation measures, subcritical crack growth may lead to secondary and tertiary creep. An empirical power law is suggested to describe secondary creep of shale rocks as a function of stress, pressure and temperature. The predicted closure rates agree with typical production decline curves recorded during the extraction of hydrocarbons. At the investigated conditions, the creep behavior of Posidonia shale was found to correlate with brittleness, calculated from sample composition.
In Chapter 4 the creep properties of mature Posidonia and Bowland shales are presented. The observed long-term creep behavior is compared to the short-term behavior determined in Chapter 2. Creep experiments were performed at simulated reservoir conditions of pc = 50 – 115 MPa and T = 75 – 150 °C. Similar to the mechanical response of immature Posidonia shale samples investigated in Chapter 3, creep strain rates of mature Bowland and Posidonia shales were enhanced with increasing stress and temperature and decreasing confining pressures. Depending on applied deformation conditions, samples displayed either only a primary (decelerating) or in addition also a secondary (quasi-steady state) and subsequently a tertiary (accelerating) creep phase before failure. At the same deformation conditions, creep strain of Posidonia shale, which is rich in weak constituents, is tremendously higher than of quartz-rich Bowland shale. Typically, primary creep strain is again mostly accommodated by deformation of weak minerals and local pore space reduction. At the onset of tertiary creep most of the deformation was accommodated by micro crack growth. A power law was used to characterize the primary creep phase of Posidonia and Bowland shale. Primary creep strain of shale rocks is inversely correlated to triaxial compressive strength and brittleness, as described in Chapter 2.
Chapter 5 provides a synthesis of the experimental findings and summarizes the major results of the studies presented in Chapters 2 – 4 and potential applications in the Exploration & Production industry.
Chapter 6 gives a brief outlook on potential future experimental research that would help to further improve our understanding of processes leading to fracture closure involving proppant embedment in unconventional shale gas reservoirs. Such insights may allow to improve stimulation techniques aimed at maintaining economical extraction of hydrocarbons over several years.
The scientific drilling campaign PALEOVAN was conducted in the summer of 2010 and was part of the international continental drilling programme (ICDP). The main goal of the campaign was the recovery of a sensitive climate archive in the East of Anatolia. Lacustrine deposits underneath the lake floor of ‘Lake Van’ constitute this archive. The drilled core material was recovered from two locations: the Ahlat Ridge and the Northern Basin. A composite core was constructed from cored material of seven parallel boreholes at the Ahlat Ridge and covers an almost complete lacustrine history of Lake Van. The composite record offered sensitive climate proxies such as variations of total organic carbon, K/Ca ratios, or a relative abundance of arboreal pollen. These proxies revealed patterns that are similar to climate proxy variations from Greenland ice cores. Climate variations in Greenland ice cores have been dated by modelling the timing of orbital forces to affect the climate. Volatiles from melted ice aliquots are often taken as high-resolution proxies and provide a base for fitting the according temporal models.
The ICDP PALEOVAN scientific team fitted proxy data from the lacustrine drilling record to ice core data and constructed an age model. Embedded volcaniclastic layers had to be dated radiometrically in order to provide independent age constraints to the climate-stratigraphic age model. Solving this task by an application of the 40Ar/39Ar method was the main objective of this thesis. Earlier efforts to apply the 40Ar/39Ar dating resulted in inaccuracies that could not be explained satisfactorily.
The absence of K-rich feldspars in suitable tephra layers implied that feldspar crystals needed to be 500 μm in size minimum, in order to apply single-crystal 40Ar/39Ar dating. Some of the samples did not contain any of these grain sizes or only very few crystals of that size. In order to overcome this problem this study applied a combined single-crystal and multi-crystal approach with different crystal fractions from the same sample. The preferred method of a stepwise heating analysis of an aliquot of feldspar crystals has been applied to three samples. The Na-rich crystals and their young geological age required 20 mg of inclusion-free, non-corroded feldspars. Small sample volumes (usually 25 % aliquots of 5 cm3 of sample material – a spoon full of tephra) and the widespread presence of melt-inclusion led to the application of combined single- and multigrain total fusion analyses. 40Ar/39Ar analyses on single crystals have the advantage of being able to monitor the presence of excess 40Ar and detrital or xenocrystic contamination in the samples. Multigrain analyses may hide the effects from these obstacles. The results from the multigrain analyses are therefore discussed with respect to the findings from the respective cogenetic single crystal ages. Some of the samples in this study were dated by 40Ar/39Ar on feldspars on multigrain separates and (if available) in combination with only a few single crystals. 40Ar/39Ar ages from two of the samples deviated statistically from the age model. All other samples resulted in identical ages. The deviations displayed older ages than those obtained from the age model. t-Tests compared radiometric ages with available age control points from various proxies and from the relative paleointensity of the earth magnetic field within a stratigraphic range of ± 10 m. Concordant age control points from different relative chronometers indicated that deviations are a result of erroneous 40Ar/39Ar ages. The thesis argues two potential reasons for these ages: (1) the irregular appearance of 40Ar from rare melt- and fluid- inclusions and (2) the contamination of the samples with older crystals due to a rapid combination of assimilation and ejection.
Another aliquot of feldspar crystals that underwent separation for the application of 40Ar/39Ar dating was investigated for geochemical inhomogeneities. Magmatic zoning is ubiquitous in the volcaniclastic feldspar crystals. Four different types of magmatic zoning were detected. The zoning types are compositional zoning (C-type zoning), pseudo-oscillatory zoning of trace ele- ment concentrations (PO-type zoning), chaotic and patchy zoning of major and trace element concentrations (R-type zoning) and concentric zoning of trace elements (CC-type zoning). Sam- ples that deviated in 40Ar/39Ar ages showed C-type zoning, R-type zoning or a mix of different types of zoning (C-type and PO-type). Feldspars showing PO-type zoning typically represent the smallest grain size fractions in the samples. The constant major element compositions of these crystals are interpreted to represent the latest stages in the compositional evolution of feldspars in a peralkaline melt. PO-type crystals contain less melt- inclusions than other zoning types and are rarely corroded. This thesis concludes that feldspars that show PO-type zoning are most promising chronometers for the 40Ar/39Ar method, if samples provide mixed zoning types of Quaternary anorthoclase feldspars.
Five samples were dated by applying the 40Ar/39Ar method to volcanic glass. High fractions of atmospheric Ar (typically > 98%) significantly hampered the precision of the 40Ar/39Ar ages and resulted in rough age estimates that widely overlap the age model. Ar isotopes indicated that the glasses bore a chorine-rich Ar-end member. The chlorine-derived 38Ar indicated chlorine-rich fluid-inclusions or the hydration of the volcanic glass shards. This indication strengthened the evidence that irregularly distributed melt-inclusions and thus irregular distributed excess 40Ar influenced the problematic feldspar 40Ar/39Ar ages. Whether a connection between a corrected initial 40Ar/36Ar ratio from glasses to the 40Ar/36Ar ratios from pore waters exists remains unclear.
This thesis offers another age model, which is similarly based on the interpolation of the temporal tie points from geophysical and climate-stratigraphic data. The model used a PCHIP- interpolation (piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial) whereas the older age model used a spline-interpolation. Samples that match in ages from 40Ar/39Ar dating of feldspars with the earlier published age model were additionally assigned with an age from the PCHIP- interpolation. These modelled ages allowed a recalculation of the Alder Creek sanidine mineral standard. The climate-stratigraphic calibration of an 40Ar/39Ar mineral standard proved that the age versus depth interpolations from PAELOVAN drilling cores were accurate, and that the applied chronometers recorded the temporal evolution of Lake Van synchronously.
Petrochemical discrimination of the sampled volcaniclastic material is also given in this thesis. 41 from 57 sampled volcaniclastic layers indicate Nemrut as their provenance. Criteria that served for the provenance assignment are provided and reviewed critically. Detailed correlations of selected PALEOVAN volcaniclastics to onshore samples that were described in detail by earlier studies are also discussed. The sampled volcaniclastics dominantly have a thickness of < 40 cm and have been ejected by small to medium sized eruptions. Onshore deposits from these types of eruptions are potentially eroded due to predominant strong winds on Nemrut and Süphan slopes. An exact correlation with the data presented here is therefore equivocal or not possible at all.
Deviating feldspar 40Ar/39Ar ages can possibly be explained by inherited 40Ar from feldspar xenocrysts contaminating the samples. In order to test this hypothesis diffusion couples of Ba were investigated in compositionally zoned feldspar crystals. The diffusive behaviour of Ba in feldspar is known, and gradients in the changing concentrations allowed for the calculation of the duration of the crystal’s magmatic development since the formation of the zoning interface. Durations were compared with degassing scenarios that model the Ar-loss during assimilation and subsequent ejection of the xenocrystals. Diffusive equilibration of the contrasting Ba concentrations is assumed to generate maximum durations as the gradient could have been developed in several growth and heating stages. The modelling does not show any indication of an involvement of inherited 40Ar in any of the deviating samples. However, the analytical set-up represents the lower limit of the required spatial resolution. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the degassing modelling relies on a significant overestimation of the maximum duration of the magmatic history. Nevertheless, the modelling of xenocrystal degassing evidences that the irregular incorporation of excess 40Ar by melt- and fluid inclusions represents the most critical problem that needs to be overcome in dating volcaniclastic feldspars from the PALEOVAN drill cores. This thesis provides the complete background in generating and presenting 40Ar/39Ar ages that are compared to age data from a climate-stratigraphic model. Deviations are identified statistically and then discussed in order to find explanations from the age model and/or from 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. Most of the PALEOVAN stratigraphy provides several chronometers that have been proven for their synchronicity. Lacustrine deposits from Lake Van represent a key archive for reconstructing climate evolution in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Near East. The PALEOVAN record offers a climate-stratigraphic age model with a remarkable accuracy and resolution.
The advances in modern geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provide surface deformation measurements with an unprecedented accuracy and temporal and spatial resolutions even at most remote volcanoes on Earth. Modelling of the high-quality geodetic data is crucial for understanding the underlying physics of volcano deformation processes. Among various approaches, mathematical models are the most effective for establishing a quantitative link between the surface displacements and the shape and strength of deformation sources. Advancing the geodetic data analyses and hence, the knowledge on the Earth’s interior processes, demands sophisticated and efficient deformation modelling approaches. Yet the majority of these models rely on simplistic assumptions for deformation source geometries and ignore complexities such as the Earth’s surface topography and interactions between multiple sources.
This thesis addresses this problem in the context of analytical and numerical volcano deformation modelling. In the first part, new analytical solutions for triangular dislocations (TDs) in uniform infinite and semi-infinite elastic media have been developed. Through a comprehensive investigation, the locations and causes of artefact singularities and numerical instabilities associated with TDs have been determined and these long-standing drawbacks have been addressed thoroughly. This approach has then been extended to rectangular dislocations (RDs) with full rotational degrees of freedom. Using this solution in a configuration of three orthogonal RDs a compound dislocation model (CDM) has been developed. The CDM can represent generalized volumetric and planar deformation sources efficiently. Thus, the CDM is relevant for rapid inversions in early warning systems and can also be used for detailed deformation analyses. In order to account for complex source geometries and realistic topography in the deformation models, in this thesis the boundary element method (BEM) has been applied to the new solutions for TDs. In this scheme, complex surfaces are simulated as a continuous mesh of TDs that may possess any displacement or stress boundary conditions in the BEM calculations. In the second part of this thesis, the developed modelling techniques have been applied to five different real-world deformation scenarios. As the first and second case studies the deformation sources associated with the 2015 Calbuco eruption and 2013–2016 Copahue inflation period have been constrained by using the CDM. The highly anisotropic source geometries in these two cases highlight the importance of using generalized deformation models such as the CDM, for geodetic data inversions. The other three case studies in this thesis involve high-resolution dislocation models and BEM calculations. As the third case, the 2013 pre-explosive inflation of Volcán de Colima has been simulated by using two ellipsoidal cavities, which locate zones of pressurization in the volcano’s lava dome. The fourth case study, which serves as an example for volcanotectonics interactions, the 3-D kinematics of an active ring-fault at Tendürek volcano has been investigated through modelling displacement time series over the 2003–2010 time period. As the fifth example, the deformation sources associated with North Korea’s underground nuclear test in September 2017 have been constrained. These examples demonstrate the advancement and increasing level of complexity and the general applicability of the developed dislocation modelling techniques.
This thesis establishes a unified framework for rapid and high-resolution dislocation modelling, which in addition to volcano deformations can also be applied to tectonic and humanmade deformations.
This dissertation combines field and geochemical observations and analyses with numerical modeling to understand the formation of vein-hosted Sn-W ore in the Panasqueira deposit of Portugal, which is among the ten largest worldwide. The deposit is located above a granite body that is altered by magmatic-hydrothermal fluids in its upper part (greisen). These fluids are thought to be the source of metals, but that was still under debate. The goal of this study is to determine the composition and temperature of hydrothermal fluids at Panasqueira, and with that information to construct a numerical model of the hydrothermal system. The focus is on analysis of the minerals tourmaline and white mica, which formed during mineralization and are widespread throughout the deposit. Tourmaline occurs mainly in alteration zones around mineralized veins and is less abundant in the vein margins. White mica is more widespread. It is abundant in vein margins as well as alteration zones, and also occurs in the granite greisen. The laboratory work involved in-situ microanalysis of major- and trace elements in tourmaline and white mica, and boron-isotope analysis in both minerals by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS).
The boron-isotope composition of tourmaline and white mica suggests a magmatic source. Comparison of hydrothermally-altered and unaltered rocks from drill cores shows that the ore metals (W, Sn, Cu, and Zn) and As, F, Li, Rb, and Cs were introduced during the alteration. Most of these elements are also enriched in tourmaline and mica, which confirms their potential value as exploration guides to Sn-W ores elsewhere.
The thermal evolution of the hydrothermal system was estimated by B-isotope exchange thermometry and the Ti-in-quartz method. Both methods yielded similar temperatures for the early hydrothermal phase: 430° to 460°C for B-isotopes and 503° ± 24°C for Ti-in-quartz. Mineral pairs from a late fault zone yield significantly lower median temperatures of 250°C. The combined results of thermometry with variations in chemical and B-isotope composition of tourmaline and mica suggest that a similar magmatic-hydrothermal fluid was active at all stages of mineralization. Mineralization in the late stage shows the same B-isotope composition as in the main stage despite a ca. 250°C cooling, which supports a multiple injection model of magmatic-hydrothermal fluids.
Two-dimensional numerical simulations of convection in a multiphase NaCl hydrothermal system were conducted: (a) in order to test a new approach (lower dimensional elements) for flow through fractures and faults and (b) in order to identify conditions for horizontal fluid flow as observed in the flat-lying veins at Panasqueira. The results show that fluid flow over an intrusion (heat and fluid source) develops a horizontal component if there is sufficient fracture connectivity. Late, steep fault zones have been identified in the deposit area, which locally contain low-temperature Zn-Pb mineralization. The model results confirm that the presence of subvertical faults with enhanced permeability play a crucial role in the ascent of magmatic fluids to the surface and the recharge of meteoric waters. Finally, our model results suggest that recharge of meteoric fluids and mixing processes may be important at later stages, while flow of magmatic fluids dominate the early stages of the hydrothermal fluid circulation.
Skarn deposits are found on every continents and were formed at different times from Precambrian to Tertiary. Typically, the formation of a skarn is induced by a granitic intrusion in carbonates-rich sedimentary rocks. During contact metamorphism, fluids derived from the granite interact with the sedimentary host rocks, which results in the formation of calc-silicate minerals at the expense of carbonates. Those newly formed minerals generally develop in a metamorphic zoned aureole with garnet in the proximal and pyroxene in the distal zone. Ore elements contained in magmatic fluids are precipitated due to the change in fluid composition. The temperature decrease of the entire system, due to the cooling of magmatic fluids and the entering of meteoric water, allows retrogression of some prograde minerals.
The Hämmerlein skarn deposit has a multi-stage history with a skarn formation during regional metamorphism and a retrogression of primary skarn minerals during the granitic intrusion. Tin was mobilized during both events. The 340 Ma old tin-bearing skarn minerals show that tin was present in sediments before the granite intrusion, and that the first Sn enrichment occurred during the skarn formation by regional metamorphism fluids. In a second step at ca. 320 Ma, tin-bearing fluids were produced with the intrusion of the Eibenstock granite. Tin, which has been added by the granite and remobilized from skarn calc-silicates, precipitated as cassiterite.
Compared to clay or marl, the skarn is enriched in Sn, W, In, Zn, and Cu. These metals have been supplied during both regional metamorphism and granite emplacement. In addition, the several isotopic and chemical data of skarn samples show that the granite selectively added elements such as Sn, and that there was no visible granitic contribution to the sedimentary signature of the skarn
The example of Hämmerlein shows that it is possible to form a tin-rich skarn without associated granite when tin has already been transported from tin-bearing sediments during regional metamorphism by aqueous metamorphic fluids. These skarns are economically not interesting if tin is only contained in the skarn minerals. Later alteration of the skarn (the heat and fluid source is not necessarily a granite), however, can lead to the formation of secondary cassiterite (SnO2), with which the skarn can become economically highly interesting.
Signals stored in sediment
(2018)
Tectonic and climatic boundary conditions determine the amount and the characteristics (size distribution and composition) of sediment that is generated and exported from mountain regions. On millennial timescales, rivers adjust their morphology such that the incoming sediment (Qs,in) can be transported downstream by the available water discharge (Qw). Changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions thus trigger an adjustment of the downstream river morphology. Understanding the sensitivity of river morphology to perturbations in boundary conditions is therefore of major importance, for example, for flood assessments, infrastructure and habitats. Although we have a general understanding of how rivers evolve over longer timescales, the prediction of channel response to changes in boundary conditions on a more local scale and over shorter timescales remains a major challenge. To better predict morphological channel evolution, we need to test (i) how channels respond to perturbations in boundary conditions and (ii) how signals reflecting the persisting conditions are preserved in sediment characteristics. This information can then be applied to reconstruct how local river systems have evolved over time.
In this thesis, I address those questions by combining targeted field data collection in the Quebrada del Toro (Southern Central Andes of NW Argentina) with cosmogenic nuclide analysis and remote sensing data. In particular, I (1) investigate how information on hillslope processes is preserved in the 10Be concentration (geochemical composition) of fluvial sediments and how those signals are altered during downstream transport. I complement the field-based approach with physical experiments in the laboratory, in which I (2) explore how changes in sediment supply (Qs,in) or water discharge (Qw) generate distinct signals in the amount of sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out). With the same set of experiments, I (3) study the adjustments of alluvial channel morphology to changes in Qw and Qs,in, with a particular focus in fill-terrace formation. I transfer the findings from the experiments to the field to (4) reconstruct the evolution of a several-hundred meter thick fluvial fill-terrace sequence in the Quebrada del Toro. I create a detailed terrace chronology and perform reconstructions of paleo-Qs and Qw from the terrace deposits. In the following paragraphs, I summarize my findings on each of these four topics.
First, I sampled detrital sediment at the outlet of tributaries and along the main stem in the Quebrada del Toro, analyzed their 10Be concentration ([10Be]) and compared the data to a detailed hillslope-process inventory. The often observed non-linear increase in catchment-mean denudation rate (inferred from [10Be] in fluvial sediment) with catchment-median slope, which has commonly been explained by an adjustment in landslide-frequency, coincided with a shift in the main type of hillslope processes. In addition, the [10Be] in fluvial sediments varied with grain-size. I defined the normalized sand-gravel-index (NSGI) as the 10Be-concentration difference between sand and gravel fractions divided by their summed concentrations. The NSGI increased with median catchment slope and coincided with a shift in the prevailing hillslope processes active in the catchments, thus making the NSGI a potential proxy for the evolution of hillslope processes over time from sedimentary deposits. However, the NSGI recorded hillslope-processes less well in regions of reduced hillslope-channel connectivity and, in addition, has the potential to be altered during downstream transport due to lateral sediment input, size-selective sediment transport and abrasion.
Second, my physical experiments revealed that sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out) varied in response to changes in Qs,in or Qw. While changes in Qw caused a distinct signal in Qs,out during the transient adjustment phase of the channel to new boundary conditions, signals related to changes in Qs,in were buffered during the transient phase and likely only become apparent once the channel is adjusted to the new conditions. The temporal buffering is related to the negative feedback between Qs,in and channel-slope adjustments. In addition, I inferred from this result that signals extracted from the geochemical composition of sediments (e.g., [10Be]) are more likely to represent modern-day conditions during times of aggradation, whereas the signal will be temporally buffered due to mixing with older, remobilized sediment during times of channel incision.
Third, the same set of experiments revealed that river incision, channel-width narrowing and terrace cutting were initiated by either an increase in Qw, a decrease in Qs,in or a drop in base level. The lag-time between the external perturbation and the terrace cutting determined (1) how well terrace surfaces preserved the channel profile prior to perturbation and (2) the degree of reworking of terrace-surface material. Short lag-times and well preserved profiles occurred in cases with a rapid onset of incision. Also, lag-times were synchronous along the entire channel after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in), whereas base-level fall triggered an upstream migrating knickzone, such that lag-times increased with distance upstream. Terraces formed after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in) were always steeper when compared to the active channel in new equilibrium conditions. In the base-level fall experiment, the slope of the terrace-surfaces and the modern channel were similar. Hence, slope comparisons between the terrace surface and the modern channel can give insights into the mechanism of terrace formation.
Fourth, my detailed terrace-formation chronology indicated that cut-and-fill episodes in the Quebrada del Toro followed a ~100-kyr cyclicity, with the oldest terraces ~ 500 kyr old. The terraces were formed due to variability in upstream Qw and Qs. Reconstructions of paleo-Qs over the last 500 kyr, which were restricted to times of sediment deposition, indicated only minor (up to four-fold) variations in paleo-denudation rates. Reconstructions of paleo-Qw were limited to the times around the onset of river incision and revealed enhanced discharge from 10 to 85% compared to today. Such increases in Qw are in agreement with other quantitative paleo-hydrological reconstructions from the Eastern Andes, but have the advantage of dating further back in time.
Natural extreme events are an integral part of nature on planet earth. Usually these events are only considered hazardous to humans, in case they are exposed. In this case, however, natural hazards can have devastating impacts on human societies. Especially hydro-meteorological hazards have a high damage potential in form of e.g. riverine and pluvial floods, winter storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, which can occur all over the globe. Along with an increasingly warm climate also an increase in extreme weather which potentially triggers natural hazards can be expected. Yet, not only changing natural systems, but also changing societal systems contribute to an increasing risk associated with these hazards. These can comprise increasing exposure and possibly also increasing vulnerability to the impacts of natural events. Thus, appropriate risk management is required to adapt all parts of society to existing and upcoming risks at various spatial scales. One essential part of risk management is the risk assessment including the estimation of the economic impacts. However, reliable methods for the estimation of economic impacts due to hydro-meteorological hazards are still missing. Therefore, this thesis deals with the question of how the reliability of hazard damage estimates can be improved, represented and propagated across all spatial scales. This question is investigated using the specific example of economic impacts to companies as a result of riverine floods in Germany.
Flood damage models aim to describe the damage processes during a given flood event. In other words they describe the vulnerability of a specific object to a flood. The models can be based on empirical data sets collected after flood events. In this thesis tree-based models trained with survey data are used for the estimation of direct economic flood impacts on the objects. It is found that these machine learning models, in conjunction with increasing sizes of data sets used to derive the models, outperform state-of-the-art damage models. However, despite the performance improvements induced by using multiple variables and more data points, large prediction errors remain at the object level. The occurrence of the high errors was explained by a further investigation using distributions derived from tree-based models. The investigation showed that direct economic impacts to individual objects cannot be modeled by a normal distribution. Yet, most state-of-the-art approaches assume a normal distribution and take mean values as point estimators. Subsequently, the predictions are unlikely values within the distributions resulting in high errors. At larger spatial scales more objects are considered for the damage estimation. This leads to a better fit of the damage estimates to a normal distribution. Consequently, also the performance of the point estimators get better, although large errors can still occur due to the variance of the normal distribution. It is recommended to use distributions instead of point estimates in order to represent the reliability of damage estimates.
In addition current approaches also mostly ignore the uncertainty associated with the characteristics of the hazard and the exposed objects. For a given flood event e.g. the estimation of the water level at a certain building is prone to uncertainties. Current approaches define exposed objects mostly by the use of land use data sets. These data sets often show inconsistencies, which introduce additional uncertainties. Furthermore, state-of-the-art approaches also imply problems of missing consistency when predicting the damage at different spatial scales. This is due to the use of different types of exposure data sets for model derivation and application. In order to face these issues a novel object-based method was developed in this thesis. The method enables a seamless estimation of hydro-meteorological hazard damage across spatial scales including uncertainty quantification. The application and validation of the method resulted in plausible estimations at all spatial scales without overestimating the uncertainty.
Mainly newly available data sets containing individual buildings make the application of the method possible as they allow for the identification of flood affected objects by overlaying the data sets with water masks. However, the identification of affected objects with two different water masks revealed huge differences in the number of identified objects. Thus, more effort is needed for their identification, since the number of objects affected determines the order of magnitude of the economic flood impacts to a large extent.
In general the method represents the uncertainties associated with the three components of risk namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability, in form of probability distributions. The object-based approach enables a consistent propagation of these uncertainties in space. Aside from the propagation of damage estimates and their uncertainties across spatial scales, a propagation between models estimating direct and indirect economic impacts was demonstrated. This enables the inclusion of uncertainties associated with the direct economic impacts within the estimation of the indirect economic impacts. Consequently, the modeling procedure facilitates the representation of the reliability of estimated total economic impacts. The representation of the estimates' reliability prevents reasoning based on a false certainty, which might be attributed to point estimates. Therefore, the developed approach facilitates a meaningful flood risk management and adaptation planning.
The successful post-event application and the representation of the uncertainties qualifies the method also for the use for future risk assessments. Thus, the developed method enables the representation of the assumptions made for the future risk assessments, which is crucial information for future risk management. This is an important step forward, since the representation of reliability associated with all components of risk is currently lacking in all state-of-the-art methods assessing future risk.
In conclusion, the use of object-based methods giving results in the form of distributions instead of point estimations is recommended. The improvement of the model performance by the means of multi-variable models and additional data points is possible, but small. Uncertainties associated with all components of damage estimation should be included and represented within the results. Furthermore, the findings of the thesis suggest that, at larger scales, the influence of the uncertainty associated with the vulnerability is smaller than those associated with the hazard and exposure. This leads to the conclusion that for an increased reliability of flood damage estimations and risk assessments, the improvement and active inclusion of hazard and exposure, including their uncertainties, is needed in addition to the improvements of the models describing the vulnerability of the objects.
Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake.
Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates.
Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales.
Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.
Arctic warming has implications for the functioning of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, global climate and socioeconomic systems of northern communities. A research gap exists in high spatial resolution monitoring and understanding of the seasonality of permafrost degradation, spring snowmelt and vegetation phenology. This thesis explores the diversity and utility of dense TerraSAR-X (TSX) X-Band time series for monitoring ice-rich riverbank erosion, snowmelt, and phenology of Arctic vegetation at long-term study sites in the central Lena Delta, Russia and on Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island), Canada. In the thesis the following three research questions are addressed:
• Is TSX time series capable of monitoring the dynamics of rapid permafrost degradation in ice-rich permafrost on an intra-seasonal scale and can these datasets in combination with climate data identify the climatic drivers of permafrost degradation?
• Can multi-pass and multi-polarized TSX time series adequately monitor seasonal snow cover and snowmelt in small Arctic catchments and how does it perform compared to optical satellite data and field-based measurements?
• Do TSX time series reflect the phenology of Arctic vegetation and how does the recorded signal compare to in-situ greenness data from RGB time-lapse camera data and vegetation height from field surveys?
To answer the research questions three years of TSX backscatter data from 2013 to 2015 for the Lena Delta study site and from 2015 to 2017 for the Qikiqtaruk study site were used in quantitative and qualitative analysis complimentary with optical satellite data and in-situ time-lapse imagery.
The dynamics of intra-seasonal ice-rich riverbank erosion in the central Lena Delta, Russia were quantified using TSX backscatter data at 2.4 m spatial resolution in HH polarization and validated with 0.5 m spatial resolution optical satellite data and field-based time-lapse camera data. Cliff top lines were automatically extracted from TSX intensity images using threshold-based segmentation and vectorization and combined in a geoinformation system with manually digitized cliff top lines from the optical satellite data and rates of erosion extracted from time-lapse cameras. The results suggest that the cliff top eroded at a constant rate throughout the entire erosional season. Linear mixed models confirmed that erosion was coupled with air temperature and precipitation at an annual scale, seasonal fluctuations did not influence 22-day erosion rates. The results highlight the potential of HH polarized X-Band backscatter data for high temporal resolution monitoring of rapid permafrost degradation.
The distinct signature of wet snow in backscatter intensity images of TSX data was exploited to generate wet snow cover extent (SCE) maps on Qikiqtaruk at high temporal resolution. TSX SCE showed high similarity to Landsat 8-derived SCE when using cross-polarized VH data. Fractional snow cover (FSC) time series were extracted from TSX and optical SCE and compared to FSC estimations from in-situ time-lapse imagery. The TSX products showed strong agreement with the in-situ data and significantly improved the temporal resolution compared to the Landsat 8 time series. The final combined FSC time series revealed two topography-dependent snowmelt patterns that corresponded to in-situ measurements. Additionally TSX was able to detect snow patches longer in the season than Landsat 8, underlining the advantage of TSX for detection of old snow. The TSX-derived snow information provided valuable insights into snowmelt dynamics on Qikiqtaruk previously not available.
The sensitivity of TSX to vegetation structure associated with phenological changes was explored on Qikiqtaruk. Backscatter and coherence time series were compared to greenness data extracted from in-situ digital time-lapse cameras and detailed vegetation parameters on 30 areas of interest. Supporting previous results, vegetation height corresponded to backscatter intensity in co-polarized HH/VV at an incidence angle of 31°. The dry, tall shrub dominated ecological class showed increasing backscatter with increasing greenness when using the cross polarized VH/HH channel at 32° incidence angle. This is likely driven by volume scattering of emerging and expanding leaves. Ecological classes with more prostrate vegetation and higher bare ground contributions showed decreasing backscatter trends over the growing season in the co-polarized VV/HH channels likely a result of surface drying instead of a vegetation structure signal. The results from shrub dominated areas are promising and provide a complementary data source for high temporal monitoring of vegetation phenology.
Overall this thesis demonstrates that dense time series of TSX with optical remote sensing and in-situ time-lapse data are complementary and can be used to monitor rapid and seasonal processes in Arctic landscapes at high spatial and temporal resolution.