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VS30, slope, H800 and f0
(2017)
The aim of this paper is to investigate the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce ground-motion aleatory variability and evaluate how SCPs capture nonlinearity site effects. The SCPs used here are time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (VS30), the topographical slope (slope), the fundamental resonance frequency (f0) and the depth beyond which Vs exceeds 800 m/s (H800). We considered first the performance of each SCP taken alone and then the combined performance of the 6 SCP pairs [VS30–f0], [VS30–H800], [f0–slope], [H800–slope], [VS30–slope] and [f0–H800]. This analysis is performed using a neural network approach including a random effect applied on a KiK-net subset for derivation of ground-motion prediction equations setting the relationship between various ground-motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-spectral acceleration PSA (T), and Mw, RJB, focal depth and SCPs. While the choice of SCP is found to have almost no impact on the median groundmotion prediction, it does impact the level of aleatory uncertainty. VS30 is found to perform the best of single proxies
at short periods (T < 0.6 s), while f0 and H800 perform better at longer periods; considering SCP pairs leads to significant improvements, with particular emphasis on [VS30–H800] and [f0–slope] pairs. The results also indicate significant nonlinearity on the site terms for soft sites and that the most relevant loading parameter for characterising nonlinear site response is the “stiff” spectral ordinate at the considered period.
Die Femtosekundendynamik nach resonanten Photoanregungen mit optischen und Röntgenpulsen ermöglicht eine selektive Verformung von chemischen N‐H‐ und N‐C‐Bindungen in 2‐Thiopyridon in wässriger Lösung. Die Untersuchung der orbitalspezifischen elektronischen Struktur und ihrer Dynamik auf ultrakurzen Zeitskalen mit resonanter inelastischer Röntgenstreuung an der N1s‐Resonanz am Synchrotron und dem Freie‐Elektronen‐Laser LCLS in Kombination mit quantenchemischen Multikonfigurationsberechnungen erbringen den direkten Nachweis dieser kontrollierten photoinduzierten Molekülverformungen und ihrer ultrakurzen Zeitskala.
Die Femtosekundendynamik nach resonanten Photoanregungen mit optischen und Röntgenpulsen ermöglicht eine selektive Verformung von chemischen N‐H‐ und N‐C‐Bindungen in 2‐Thiopyridon in wässriger Lösung. Die Untersuchung der orbitalspezifischen elektronischen Struktur und ihrer Dynamik auf ultrakurzen Zeitskalen mit resonanter inelastischer Röntgenstreuung an der N1s‐Resonanz am Synchrotron und dem Freie‐Elektronen‐Laser LCLS in Kombination mit quantenchemischen Multikonfigurationsberechnungen erbringen den direkten Nachweis dieser kontrollierten photoinduzierten Molekülverformungen und ihrer ultrakurzen Zeitskala.
The femtosecond excited-state dynamics following resonant photoexcitation enable the selective deformation of N-H and N-C chemical bonds in 2-thiopyridone in aqueous solution with optical or X-ray pulses. In combination with multiconfigurational quantum-chemical calculations, the orbital-specific electronic structure and its ultrafast dynamics accessed with resonant inelastic X-ray scattering at the N 1s level using synchrotron radiation and the soft X-ray free-electron laser LCLS provide direct evidence for this controlled photoinduced molecular deformation and its ultrashort time-scale.
We present a setup combining a liquid flatjet sample delivery and a MHz laser system for time-resolved soft X-ray absorption measurements of liquid samples at the high brilliance undulator beamline UE52-SGM at Bessy II yielding unprecedented statistics in this spectral range. We demonstrate that the efficient detection of transient absorption changes in transmission mode enables the identification of photoexcited species in dilute samples. With iron(II)-trisbipyridine in aqueous solution as a benchmark system, we present absorption measurements at various edges in the soft X-ray regime. In combination with the wavelength tunability of the laser system, the set-up opens up opportunities to study the photochemistry of many systems at low concentrations, relevant to materials sciences, chemistry, and biology.
The role of serum amyloid A and sphingosine-1-phosphate on high-density lipoprotein functionality
(2017)
The high-density lipoprotein (HDL) is one of the most important endogenous cardiovascular protective markers. HDL is an attractive target in the search for new pharmaceutical therapies and in the prevention of cardiovascular events. Some of HDL’s anti-atherogenic properties are related to the signaling molecule sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), which plays an important role in vascular homeostasis. However, for different patient populations it seems more complicated. Significant changes in HDL’s protective potency are reduced under pathologic conditions and HDL might even serve as a proatherogenic particle. Under uremic conditions especially there is a change in the compounds associated with HDL. S1P is reduced and acute phase proteins such as serum amyloid A (SAA) are found to be elevated in HDL. The conversion of HDL in inflammation changes the functional properties of HDL. High amounts of SAA are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases such as atherosclerosis. SAA has potent pro-atherogenic properties, which may have impact on HDL’s biological functions, including cholesterol efflux capacity, antioxidative and anti-inflammatory activities. This review focuses on two molecules that affect the functionality of HDL. The balance between functional and dysfunctional HDL is disturbed after the loss of the protective sphingolipid molecule S1P and the accumulation of the acute-phase protein SAA. This review also summarizes the biological activities of lipid-free and lipid-bound SAA and its impact on HDL function.
The Kenya rift revisited
(2017)
We present three-dimensional (3-D) models that describe the present-day thermal and rheological state of the lithosphere of the greater Kenya rift region aiming at a better understanding of the rift evolution, with a particular focus on plume-lithosphere interactions. The key methodology applied is the 3-D integration of diverse geological and geophysical observations using gravity modelling. Accordingly, the resulting lithospheric-scale 3-D density model is consistent with (i) reviewed descriptions of lithological variations in the sedimentary and volcanic cover, (ii) known trends in crust and mantle seismic velocities as revealed by seismic and seismological data and (iii) the observed gravity field. This data-based model is the first to image a 3-D density configuration of the crystalline crust for the entire region of Kenya and northern Tanzania. An upper and a basal crustal layer are differentiated, each composed of several domains of different average densities. We interpret these domains to trace back to the Precambrian terrane amalgamation associated with the East African Orogeny and to magmatic processes during Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting phases. In combination with seismic velocities, the densities of these crustal domains indicate compositional differences. The derived lithological trends have been used to parameterise steady-state thermal and rheological models. These models indicate that crustal and mantle temperatures decrease from the Kenya rift in the west to eastern Kenya, while the integrated strength of the lithosphere increases. Thereby, the detailed strength configuration appears strongly controlled by the complex inherited crustal structure, which may have been decisive for the onset, localisation and propagation of rifting.
The Bruce effect revisited
(2017)
Pregnancy termination after encountering a strange male, the Bruce effect, is regarded as a counterstrategy of female mammals towards anticipated infanticide. While confirmed in caged rodent pairs, no verification for the Bruce effect existed from experimental field populations of small rodents. We suggest that the effect may be adaptive for breeding rodent females only under specific conditions related to populations with cyclically fluctuating densities. We investigated the occurrence of delay in birth date after experimental turnover of the breeding male under different population composition in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in large outdoor enclosures: one-male–multiple-females (n = 6 populations/18 females), multiple-males–multiple-females (n = 15/45), and single-male–single-female (MF treatment, n = 74/74). Most delays were observed in the MF treatment after turnover. Parallel we showed in a laboratory experiment (n = 205 females) that overwintered and primiparous females, the most abundant cohort during population lows in the increase phase of cyclic rodent populations, were more likely to delay births after turnover of the male than year-born and multiparous females. Taken together, our results suggest that the Bruce effect may be an adaptive breeding strategy for rodent females in cyclic populations specifically at low densities in the increase phase, when isolated, overwintered animals associate in MF pairs. During population lows infanticide risk and inbreeding risk may then be higher than during population highs, while also the fitness value of a litter in an increasing population is higher. Therefore, the Bruce effect may be adaptive for females during annual population lows in the increase phases, even at the costs of delaying reproduction.
Recent research has called into question the current practice to estimate individual usual food intake in large-scale studies. In such studies, usual food intake has been defined as diet over the past year. The aim of this review is to summarise the concepts of dietary assessment methods providing food intake data over this time period. A conceptualised framework is given to help researchers to understand the more recent developments to improve dietary assessment in large-scale prospective studies, and also to help to spot the gaps that need to be addressed in future methodological research. The conceptual framework illustrates the current options for the assessment of an individual’s food consumption over 1 year. Ideally, a person’s food intake on each day of this year should be assessed. Due to participants’ burden, and organisational and financial constraints, however, the options are limited to directly requesting the long-term average (e.g. food frequency questionnaires), or selecting a few days with detailed food consumption measurements (e.g. 24-hour dietary recalls) or using snapshot techniques (e.g. barcode scanning of purchases). It seems necessary and important to further evaluate the performance of statistical modelling of the individual usual food intake from all available sources. Future dietary assessment might profit from the growing prominence of internet and telecommunication technologies to further enhance the available data on food consumption for each study participant. Research is crucial to investigate the performance of innovative assessment tools. However, the self-reported nature of the data itself will always lead to bias.
Shifts among Eukaryota, Bacteria, and Archaea define the vertical organization of a lake sediment
(2017)
Background
Lake sediments harbor diverse microbial communities that cycle carbon and nutrients while being constantly colonized and potentially buried by organic matter sinking from the water column. The interaction of activity and burial remained largely unexplored in aquatic sediments. We aimed to relate taxonomic composition to sediment biogeochemical parameters, test whether community turnover with depth resulted from taxonomic replacement or from richness effects, and to provide a basic model for the vertical community structure in sediments.
Methods
We analyzed four replicate sediment cores taken from 30-m depth in oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin in northern Germany. Each 30-cm core spanned ca. 170 years of sediment accumulation according to 137Cs dating and was sectioned into layers 1–4 cm thick. We examined a full suite of biogeochemical parameters and used DNA metabarcoding to examine community composition of microbial Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukaryota.
Results
Community β-diversity indicated nearly complete turnover within the uppermost 30 cm. We observed a pronounced shift from Eukaryota- and Bacteria-dominated upper layers (<5 cm) to Bacteria-dominated intermediate layers (5–14 cm) and to deep layers (>14 cm) dominated by enigmatic Archaea that typically occur in deep-sea sediments. Taxonomic replacement was the prevalent mechanism in structuring the community composition and was linked to parameters indicative of microbial activity (e.g., CO2 and CH4 concentration, bacterial protein production). Richness loss played a lesser role but was linked to conservative parameters (e.g., C, N, P) indicative of past conditions.
Conclusions
By including all three domains, we were able to directly link the exponential decay of eukaryotes with the active sediment microbial community. The dominance of Archaea in deeper layers confirms earlier findings from marine systems and establishes freshwater sediments as a potential low-energy environment, similar to deep sea sediments. We propose a general model of sediment structure and function based on microbial characteristics and burial processes. An upper “replacement horizon” is dominated by rapid taxonomic turnover with depth, high microbial activity, and biotic interactions. A lower “depauperate horizon” is characterized by low taxonomic richness, more stable “low-energy” conditions, and a dominance of enigmatic Archaea.
The dynamics of fragmentation and vibration of molecular systems with a large number of coupled degrees of freedom are key aspects for understanding chemical reactivity and properties. Here we present a resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) study to show how it is possible to break down such a complex multidimensional problem into elementary components. Local multimode nuclear wave packets created by X-ray excitation to different core-excited potential energy surfaces (PESs) will act as spatial gates to selectively probe the particular ground-state vibrational modes and, hence, the PES along these modes. We demonstrate this principle by combining ultra-high resolution RIXS measurements for gas-phase water with state-of-the-art simulations.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study.
1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated).
2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments.
3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships.
4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.
The SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley-Atmospheric Brown Clouds) international air pollution measurement campaign was carried out from December 2012 to June 2013 in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions in Nepal. The Kathmandu Valley is a bowl-shaped basin with a severe air pollution problem. This paper reports measurements of two major greenhouse gases (GHGs), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), along with the pollutant CO, that began during the campaign and were extended for 1 year at the SusKat-ABC supersite in Bode, a semi-urban location in the Kathmandu Valley. Simultaneous measurements were also made during 2015 in Bode and a nearby rural site (Chanban) similar to 25 km (aerial distance) to the southwest of Bode on the other side of a tall ridge. The ambient mixing ratios of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor, and carbon monoxide (CO) were measured with a cavity ring-down spectrometer (G2401; Picarro, USA) along with meteorological parameters for 1 year (March 2013-March 2014). These measurements are the first of their kind in the central Himalayan foothills. At Bode, the annual average mixing ratios of CO2 and CH4 were 419.3 (+/- 6.0) ppm and 2.192 (+/- 0.066) ppm, respectively. These values are higher than the levels observed at background sites such as Mauna Loa, USA (CO2: 396.8 +/- 2.0 ppm, CH4: 1.831 +/- 0.110 ppm) and Waliguan, China (CO2: 397.7 +/- 3.6 ppm, CH4: 1.879 +/- 0.009 ppm) during the same period and at other urban and semi-urban sites in the region, such as Ahmedabad and Shadnagar (India). They varied slightly across the seasons at Bode, with seasonal average CH4 mixing ratios of 2.157 (+/- 0.230) ppm in the pre-monsoon season, 2.199 (+/- 0.241) ppm in the monsoon, 2.210 (+/- 0.200) ppm in the post-monsoon, and 2.214 (+/- 0.209) ppm in the winter season. The average CO2 mixing ratios were 426.2 (+/- 25.5) ppm in the pre-monsoon, 413.5 (+/- 24.2) ppm in the monsoon, 417.3 (+/- 23.1) ppm in the postmonsoon, and 421.9 (+/- 20.3) ppm in the winter season. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratio of CH4 in winter was only 0.057 ppm or 2.6% higher than the seasonal minimum during the pre-monsoon period, while CO2 was 12.8 ppm or 3.1% higher during the pre-monsoon period (seasonal maximum) than during the monsoon (seasonal minimum). On the other hand, the CO mixing ratio at Bode was 191% higher during the winter than during the monsoon season. The enhancement in CO2 mixing ratios during the pre-monsoon season is associated with additional CO2 emissions from forest fires and agro-residue burning in northern South Asia in addition to local emissions in the Kathmandu Valley. Published CO = CO2 ratios of different emission sources in Nepal and India were compared with the observed CO = CO2 ratios in this study. This comparison suggested that the major sources in the Kathmandu Valley were residential cooking and vehicle exhaust in all seasons except winter. In winter, brick kiln emissions were a major source. Simultaneous measurements in Bode and Chanban (15 July-3 October 2015) revealed that the mixing ratios of CO2, CH4, and CO were 3.8, 12, and 64% higher in Bode than Chanban.
The Kathmandu Valley thus has significant emissions from local sources, which can also be attributed to its bowl-shaped geography that is conducive to pollution build-up. At Bode, all three gas species (CO2, CH4, and CO) showed strong diurnal patterns in their mixing ratios with a pronounced morning peak (ca. 08:00), a dip in the afternoon, and a gradual increase again through the night until the next morning. CH4 and CO at Chanban, however, did not show any noticeable diurnal variations.
These measurements provide the first insights into the diurnal and seasonal variation in key greenhouse gases and air pollutants and their local and regional sources, which is important information for atmospheric research in the region.
Objective: A key challenge in ancient DNA research is massive microbial DNA contamination from the deposition site which accumulates post mortem in the study organism’s remains. Two simple and cost-effective methods to enrich the relative endogenous fraction of DNA in ancient samples involve treatment of sample powder with either bleach or Proteinase K pre-digestion prior to DNA extraction. Both approaches have yielded promising but vary-ing results in other studies. Here, we contribute data on the performance of these methods using a comprehensive and systematic series of experiments applied to a single ancient bone fragment from a giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca).Results: Bleach and pre-digestion treatments increased the endogenous DNA content up to ninefold. However, the absolute amount of DNA retrieved was dramatically reduced by all treatments. We also observed reduced DNA damage patterns in pre-treated libraries compared to untreated ones, resulting in longer mean fragment lengths and reduced thymine over-representation at fragment ends. Guanine–cytosine (GC) contents of both mapped and total reads are consistent between treatments and conform to general expectations, indicating no obvious biasing effect of the applied methods. Our results therefore confirm the value of bleach and pre-digestion as tools in palaeog-enomic studies, providing sufficient material is available.
We present an approach for reconstructing networks of pulse-coupled neuronlike oscillators from passive observation of pulse trains of all nodes. It is assumed that units are described by their phase response curves and that their phases are instantaneously reset by incoming pulses. Using an iterative procedure, we recover the properties of all nodes, namely their phase response curves and natural frequencies, as well as strengths of all directed connections.
Purpose: Comparison of the dissociation kinetics of rapid-acting insulins lispro, aspart, glulisine and human insulin under physiologically relevant conditions.
Methods: Dissociation kinetics after dilution were monitored directly in terms of the average molecular mass using combined static and dynamic light scattering. Changes in tertiary structure were detected by near-UV circular dichroism.
Results: Glulisine forms compact hexamers in formulation even in the absence of Zn2+. Upon severe dilution, these rapidly dissociate into monomers in less than 10 s. In contrast, in formulations of lispro and aspart, the presence of Zn2+ and phenolic compounds is essential for formation of compact R6 hexamers. These slowly dissociate in times ranging from seconds to one hour depending on the concentration of phenolic additives. The disadvantage of the long dissociation times of lispro and aspart can be diminished by a rapid depletion of the concentration of phenolic additives independent of the insulin dilution. This is especially important in conditions similar to those after subcutaneous injection, where only minor dilution of the insulins occurs.
Conclusion: Knowledge of the diverging dissociation mechanisms of lispro and aspart compared to glulisine will be helpful for optimizing formulation conditions of rapid-acting insulins.
There is growing interest in biological control as a sustainable and environmentally friendly way to control pest insects. Aphids are among the most detrimental agricultural pests worldwide, and parasitoid wasps are frequently employed for their control. The use of asexual parasitoids may improve the effectiveness of biological control because only females kill hosts and because asexual populations have a higher growth rate than sexuals. However, asexuals may have a reduced capacity to track evolutionary change in their host populations. We used a factorial experiment to compare the ability of sexual and asexual populations of the parasitoid Lysiphlebus fabarum to control caged populations of black bean aphids (Aphis fabae) of high and low clonal diversity. The aphids came from a natural population, and one-third of the aphid clones harbored Hamiltonella defensa, a heritable bacterial endosymbiont that increases resistance to parasitoids. We followed aphid and parasitoid population dynamics for 3 months but found no evidence that the reproductive mode of parasitoids affected their effectiveness as biocontrol agents, independent of host clonal diversity. Parasitoids failed to control aphids in most cases, because their introduction resulted in strong selection for clones protected by H. defensa. The increasingly resistant aphid populations escaped control by parasitoids, and we even observed parasitoid extinctions in many cages. The rapid evolution of symbiont-conferred resistance in turn imposed selection on parasitoids. In cages where asexual parasitoids persisted until the end of the experiment, they became dominated by a single genotype able to overcome the protection provided by H. defensa. Thus, there was evidence for parasitoid counteradaptation, but it was generally too slow for parasitoids to regain control over aphid populations. It appears that when pest aphids possess defensive symbionts, the presence of parasitoid genotypes able to overcome symbiont-conferred resistance is more important for biocontrol success than their reproductive mode.
We introduce an abstract concept of quantum field theory on categories fibered in groupoids over the category of spacetimes. This provides us with a general and flexible framework to study quantum field theories defined on spacetimes with extra geometric structures such as bundles, connections and spin structures. Using right Kan extensions, we can assign to any such theory an ordinary quantum field theory defined on the category of spacetimes and we shall clarify under which conditions it satisfies the axioms of locally covariant quantum field theory. The same constructions can be performed in a homotopy theoretic framework by using homotopy right Kan extensions, which allows us to obtain first toy-models of homotopical quantum field theories resembling some aspects of gauge theories.
Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters
(2017)
We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95% of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56% of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.
Tracking changes in biodiversity through time requires an understanding of the relationship between modern diversity and how this diversity is preserved in the fossil record. Fossil pollen is one way in which past vegetation diversity can be reconstructed. However, there is limited understanding of modern pollen-vegetation diversity relationships from biodiverse tropical ecosystems. Here, pollen (palynological) richness and diversity (Hill N (1)) are compared with vegetation richness and diversity from forest and savannah ecosystems in the New World and Old World tropics (Neotropics and Palaeotropics). Modern pollen data were obtained from artificial pollen traps deployed in 1-ha vegetation study plots from which vegetation inventories had been completed in Bolivia and Ghana. Pollen counts were obtained from 15 to 22 traps per plot, and aggregated pollen sums for each plot were > 2,500. The palynological richness/diversity values from the Neotropics were moist evergreen forest = 86/6.8, semi-deciduous dry forest = 111/21.9, wooded savannah = 138/31.5, and from the Palaeotropics wet evergreen forest = 144/28.3, semi-deciduous moist forest = 104/4.4, forest-savannah transition = 121/14.1; the corresponding vegetation richness/diversity was 100/36.7, 80/38.7 and 71/39.4 (Neotropics), and 101/54.8, 87/45.5 and 71/34.5 (Palaeotropics). No consistent relationship was found between palynological richness/diversity, and plot vegetation richness/diversity, due to the differential influence of other factors such as landscape diversity, pollination strategy, and pollen source area. Palynological richness exceeded vegetation richness, while pollen diversity was lower than vegetation diversity. The relatively high global diversity of tropical vegetation was found to be reflected in the pollen rain.
This study explores the suitability of a single hillslope as a parsimonious representation of a catchment in a physically based model. We test this hypothesis by picturing two distinctly different catchments in perceptual models and translating these pictures into parametric setups of 2-D physically based hillslope models. The model parametrizations are based on a comprehensive field data set, expert knowledge and process-based reasoning. Evaluation against streamflow data highlights that both models predicted the annual pattern of streamflow generation as well as the hydrographs acceptably. However, a look beyond performance measures revealed deficiencies in streamflow simulations during the summer season and during individual rainfall-runoff events as well as a mismatch between observed and simulated soil water dynamics. Some of these shortcomings can be related to our perception of the systems and to the chosen hydrological model, while others point to limitations of the representative hillslope concept itself. Nevertheless, our results confirm that representative hillslope models are a suitable tool to assess the importance of different data sources as well as to challenge our perception of the dominant hydrological processes we want to represent therein. Consequently, these models are a promising step forward in the search for the optimal representation of catchments in physically based models.
Background
The members of the genus Muntiacus are of particular interest to evolutionary biologists due to their extreme chromosomal rearrangements and the ongoing discussions about the number of living species. Red muntjacs have the largest distribution of all muntjacs and were formerly considered as one species. Karyotype differences led to the provisional split between the Southern Red Muntjac (Muntiacus muntjak) and the Northern Red Muntjac (M. vaginalis), but uncertainties remain as, so far, no phylogenetic study has been conducted. Here, we analysed whole mitochondrial genomes of 59 archival and 16 contemporaneous samples to resolve uncertainties about their taxonomy and used red muntjacs as model for understanding the evolutionary history of other species in Southeast Asia.
Results
We found three distinct matrilineal groups of red muntjacs: Sri Lankan red muntjacs (including the Western Ghats) diverged first from other muntjacs about 1.5 Mya; later northern red muntjacs (including North India and Indochina) and southern red muntjacs (Sundaland) split around 1.12 Mya. The diversification of red muntjacs into these three main lineages was likely promoted by two Pleistocene barriers: one through the Indian subcontinent and one separating the Indochinese and Sundaic red muntjacs. Interestingly, we found a high level of gene flow within the populations of northern and southern red muntjacs, indicating gene flow between populations in Indochina and dispersal of red muntjacs over the exposed Sunda Shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum.
Conclusions
Our results provide new insights into the evolution of species in South and Southeast Asia as we found clear genetic differentiation in a widespread and generalist species, corresponding to two known biogeographical barriers: The Isthmus of Kra and the central Indian dry zone. In addition, our molecular data support either the delineation of three monotypic species or three subspecies, but more importantly these data highlight the conservation importance of the Sri Lankan/South Indian red muntjac.
Background
Cells are able to communicate and coordinate their function within tissues via secreted factors. Aberrant secretion by cancer cells can modulate this intercellular communication, in particular in highly organised tissues such as the liver. Hepatocytes, the major cell type of the liver, secrete Dickkopf (Dkk), which inhibits Wnt/ β-catenin signalling in an autocrine and paracrine manner. Consequently, Dkk modulates the expression of Wnt/ β-catenin target genes. We present a mathematical model that describes the autocrine and paracrine regulation of hepatic gene expression by Dkk under wild-type conditions as well as in the presence of mutant cells.
Results
Our spatial model describes the competition of Dkk and Wnt at receptor level, intra-cellular Wnt/ β-catenin signalling, and the regulation of target gene expression for 21 individual hepatocytes. Autocrine and paracrine regulation is mediated through a feedback mechanism via Dkk and Dkk diffusion along the porto-central axis. Along this axis an APC concentration gradient is modelled as experimentally detected in liver. Simulations of mutant cells demonstrate that already a single mutant cell increases overall Dkk concentration. The influence of the mutant cell on gene expression of surrounding wild-type hepatocytes is limited in magnitude and restricted to hepatocytes in close proximity. To explore the underlying molecular mechanisms, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the model parameters such as diffusion coefficient, mutation strength and feedback strength.
Conclusions
Our simulations show that Dkk concentration is elevated in the presence of a mutant cell. However, the impact of these elevated Dkk levels on wild-type hepatocytes is confined in space and magnitude. The combination of inter- and intracellular processes, such as Dkk feedback, diffusion and Wnt/ β-catenin signal transduction, allow wild-type hepatocytes to largely maintain their gene expression.
The transition from hunting and gathering to farming involved profound cultural and technological changes. In Western and Central Europe, these changes occurred rapidly and synchronously after the arrival of early farmers of Anatolian origin [1-3], who largely replaced the local Mesolithic hunter-gatherers [1, 4-6]. Further east, in the Baltic region, the transition was gradual, with little or no genetic input from incoming farmers [7]. Here we use ancient DNA to investigate the relationship between hunter-gatherers and farmers in the Lower Danube basin, a geographically intermediate area that is characterized by a rapid Neolithic transition but also by the presence of archaeological evidence that points to cultural exchange, and thus possible admixture, between hunter-gatherers and farmers. We recovered four human paleogenomes (1.13 to 4.13 coverage) from Romania spanning a time transect between 8.8 thousand years ago (kya) and 5.4 kya and supplemented them with two Mesolithic genomes (1.73- and 5.33) from Spain to provide further context on the genetic background of Mesolithic Europe. Our results show major Western hunter-gatherer (WHG) ancestry in a Romanian Eneolithic sample with a minor, but sizeable, contribution from Anatolian farmers, suggesting multiple admixture events between hunter-gatherers and farmers. Dietary stableisotope analysis of this sample suggests a mixed terrestrial/ aquatic diet. Our results provide support for complex interactions among hunter-gatherers and farmers in the Danube basin, demonstrating that in some regions, demic and cultural diffusion were not mutually exclusive, but merely the ends of a continuum for the process of Neolithization.
Palaeogenomes of Eurasian straight-tusked elephants challenge the current view of elephant evolution
(2017)
The straight-tusked elephants Palaeoloxodon spp. were widespread across Eurasia during the Pleistocene. Phylogenetic reconstructions using morphological traits have grouped them with Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), and many paleontologists place Palaeoloxodon within Elephas. Here, we report the recovery of full mitochondrial genomes from four and partial nuclear genomes from two P. antiquus fossils. These fossils were collected at two sites in Germany, Neumark-Nord and Weimar-Ehringsdorf, and likely date to interglacial periods similar to 120 and similar to 244 thousand years ago, respectively. Unexpectedly, nuclear and mitochondrial DNA analyses suggest that P. antiquus was a close relative of extant African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis). Species previously referred to Palaeoloxodon are thus most parsimoniously explained as having diverged from the lineage of Loxodonta, indicating that Loxodonta has not been constrained to Africa. Our results demonstrate that the current picture of elephant evolution is in need of substantial revision.
The oceans absorb about a quarter of the annually produced anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting in a decrease in surface water pH, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). Surprisingly little is known about how OA affects the physiology of heterotrophic bacteria or the coupling of heterotrophic bacteria to phytoplankton when nutrients are limited. Previous experiments were, for the most part, undertaken during productive phases or following nutrient additions designed to stimulate algal blooms. Therefore, we performed an in situ large-volume mesocosm (similar to 55 m(3)) experiment in the Baltic Sea by simulating different fugacities of CO2 (fCO(2)) extending from present to future conditions. The study was conducted in July-August after the nominal spring bloom, in order to maintain low-nutrient conditions throughout the experiment. This resulted in phytoplankton communities dominated by small-sized functional groups (picophytoplankton). There was no consistent fCO(2)-induced effect on bacterial protein production (BPP), cell-specific BPP (csBPP) or biovolumes (BVs) of either free-living (FL) or particle-associated (PA) heterotrophic bacteria, when considered as individual components (univariate analyses). Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance (PERMANOVA) revealed a significant effect of the fCO(2) treatment on entire assemblages of dissolved and particulate nutrients, metabolic parameters and the bacteria-phytoplankton community. However, distance-based linear modelling only identified fCO(2) as a factor explaining the variability observed amongst the microbial community composition, but not for explaining variability within the metabolic parameters. This suggests that fCO(2) impacts on microbial metabolic parameters occurred indirectly through varying physicochemical parameters and microbial species composition. Cluster analyses examining the co-occurrence of different functional groups of bacteria and phytoplankton further revealed a separation of the four fCO(2)-treated mesocosms from both control mesocosms, indicating that complex trophic interactions might be altered in a future acidified ocean. Possible consequences for nutrient cycling and carbon export are still largely unknown, in particular in a nutrient-limited ocean.
Residents of the Kathmandu Valley experience severe particulate and gaseous air pollution throughout most of the year, even during much of the rainy season. The knowledge base for understanding the air pollution in the Kathmandu Valley was previously very limited, but is improving rapidly due to several field measurement studies conducted in the last few years. Thus far, most analyses of observations in the Kathmandu Valley have been limited to short periods of time at single locations. This study extends on the past studies by examining the spatial and temporal characteristics of two important gaseous air pollutant (CO and O3) based on simultaneous observations over a longer period at five locations within the valley and on its rim, including a supersite (at Bode in the valley center, 1345m above sea level) and four satellite sites (at Paknajol, 1380masl in the Kathmandu city center, at Bhimdhunga (1522masl), a mountain pass on the valley's western rim, at Nagarkot (1901masl), another mountain pass on the eastern rim, and Naikhandi, near the valley's only river outlet). CO and O3 mixing ratios were monitored from January to July 2013, along with other gases and aerosol particles by instruments deployed at the Bode supersite during the international air pollution measurement campaign SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – endorsed by the Atmospheric Brown Clouds program of UNEP). The O3 monitoring at Bode, Paknajol and Nagarkot as well as the CO monitoring at Bode were extended beyond July 2013 to investigate their variability over a complete annual cycle. Higher CO mixing ratios were found at Bode than at the outskirt sites (Bhimdhunga, Naikhandi and Nagarkot), and all sites except Nagarkot showed distinct diurnal cycles of CO mixing ratio with morning peaks and daytime lows. Seasonally, CO was higher during the pre-monsoon and winter seasons, especially due to the emissions from brick kiln industries, which only operate during this period, as well as increased domestic heating during winter, and regional forest fires and agro-residue burning. It was lower during the monsoon due to rainfall, which reduces open burning activities within the valley and in the surrounding regions, and thus reduces the sources of CO. The meteorology of the valley also played a key role in determining the CO mixing ratios. Furthermore, there was evidence of some influence of pollution from the greater region around the valley. A top-down estimate of the CO emission flux was made by using the CO mixing ratio and mixing layer height (MLH) measured at Bode. The estimated annual CO flux at Bode was 4.92μgm−2s−1, which is 2–14 times higher than that in widely used emission inventory databases (EDGAR HTAP, REAS and INTEX-B). This difference in CO flux between Bode and other emission databases likely arises from large uncertainties in both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimating the emission flux. The O3 mixing ratio was found to be highest during the pre-monsoon season at all sites, while the timing of the seasonal minimum varied across the sites. The daily maximum 8 hour average O3 exceeded the WHO recommended guideline of 50ppb on more days at the hilltop station of Nagarkot (159/357 days) than at the urban valley bottom sites of Paknajol (132/354 days) and Bode (102/353 days), presumably due to the influence of free-tropospheric air at the high-altitude site, as well as to titration of O3 by fresh NOx emissions near the urban sites. More than 78% of the exceedance days were during the pre-monsoon period at all sites. This was due to both favorable meteorological conditions as well as contributions of precursors from regional sources such as forest fires and agro-residue burning. The high O3 mixing ratio observed during the pre-monsoon period is of a high concern for human health and ecosystems, including agroecosystems in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions.
Plant functional traits reflect individual and community ecological strategies. They allow the detection of directional changes in community dynamics and ecosystemic processes, being an additional tool to assess biodiversity than species richness. Analysis of functional patterns in plant communities provides mechanistic insight into biodiversity alterations due to anthropogenic activity. Although studies have considered of either anthropogenic management or nutrient availability on functional traits in temperate grasslands, studies combining effects of both drivers are scarce. Here, we assessed the impacts of management intensity (fertilization, mowing, grazing), nutrient stoichiometry (C, N, P, K), and vegetation composition on community-weighted means (CWMs) and functional diversity (Rao's Q) from seven plant traits in 150 grasslands in three regions in Germany, using data of 6 years. Land use and nutrient stoichiometry accounted for larger proportions of model variance of CWM and Rao's Q than species richness and productivity. Grazing affected all analyzed trait groups; fertilization and mowing only impacted generative traits. Grazing was clearly associated with nutrient retention strategies, that is, investing in durable structures and production of fewer, less variable seed. Phenological variability was increased. Fertilization and mowing decreased seed number/mass variability, indicating competition-related effects. Impacts of nutrient stoichiometry on trait syndromes varied. Nutrient limitation (large N:P, C:N ratios) promoted species with conservative strategies, that is, investment in durable plant structures rather than fast growth, fewer seed, and delayed flowering onset. In contrast to seed mass, leaf-economics variability was reduced under P shortage. Species diversity was positively associated with the variability of generative traits. Synthesis. Here, land use, nutrient availability, species richness, and plant functional strategies have been shown to interact complexly, driving community composition, and vegetation responses to management intensity. We suggest that deeper understanding of underlying mechanisms shaping community assembly and biodiversity will require analyzing all these parameters.
Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
(2017)
Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10% in 2002 to 34% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.
Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition of photosynthesis, the accumulation of cell‐damaging reactive oxygen species and gene expression reprogramming, besides others. Transcription factors (TF) are central regulators of transcriptional reprogramming and expression of many TF genes is affected by drought, including members of the NAC family. Here, we identify the NAC factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) as a regulator of drought tolerance in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Expression of tomato JUB1 (SlJUB1) is enhanced by various abiotic stresses, including drought. Inhibiting SlJUB1 by virus‐induced gene silencing drastically lowers drought tolerance concomitant with an increase in ion leakage, an elevation of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) levels and a decrease in the expression of various drought‐responsive genes. In contrast, overexpression of AtJUB1 from Arabidopsis thaliana increases drought tolerance in tomato, alongside with a higher relative leaf water content during drought and reduced H2O2 levels. AtJUB1 was previously shown to stimulate expression of DREB2A, a TF involved in drought responses, and of the DELLA genes GAI and RGL1. We show here that SlJUB1 similarly controls the expression of the tomato orthologs SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA. Furthermore, AtJUB1 directly binds to the promoters of SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA in tomato. Our study highlights JUB1 as a transcriptional regulator of drought tolerance and suggests considerable conservation of the abiotic stress‐related gene regulatory networks controlled by this NAC factor between Arabidopsis and tomato.
The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
Strong events of long-range transported biomass burning aerosol were detected during July 2013 at three EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) stations, namely Granada (Spain), Leipzig (Germany) and Warsaw (Poland). Satellite observations from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instruments, as well as modeling tools such as HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) and NAAPS (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System), have been used to estimate the sources and transport paths of those North American forest fire smoke particles. A multiwavelength Raman lidar technique was applied to obtain vertically resolved particle optical properties, and further inversion of those properties with a regularization algorithm allowed for retrieving microphysical information on the studied particles. The results highlight the presence of smoke layers of 1-2 km thickness, located at about 5 km a.s.l. altitude over Granada and Leipzig and around 2.5 km a.s.l. at Warsaw. These layers were intense, as they accounted for more than 30% of the total AOD (aerosol optical depth) in all cases, and presented optical and microphysical features typical for different aging degrees: color ratio of lidar ratios (LR532/LR355) around 2, alpha-related angstrom exponents of less than 1, effective radii of 0.3 mu m and large values of single scattering albedos (SSA), nearly spectrally independent. The intensive microphysical properties were compared with columnar retrievals form co-located AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) stations. The intensity of the layers was also characterized in terms of particle volume concentration, and then an experimental relationship between this magnitude and the particle extinction coefficient was established.
In spite of the fundamental role of the landscape water balance for the Earth's water and energy cycles, monitoring the water balance and its components beyond the point scale is notoriously difficult due to the multitude of flow and storage processes and their spatial heterogeneity. Here, we present the first field deployment of an iGrav superconducting gravimeter (SG) in a minimized enclosure for long-term integrative monitoring of water storage changes. Results of the field SG on a grassland site under wet-temperate climate conditions were compared to data provided by a nearby SG located in the controlled environment of an observatory building. The field system proves to provide gravity time series that are similarly precise as those of the observatory SG. At the same time, the field SG is more sensitive to hydrological variations than the observatory SG. We demonstrate that the gravity variations observed by the field setup are almost independent of the depth below the terrain surface where water storage changes occur (contrary to SGs in buildings), and thus the field SG system directly observes the total water storage change, i.e., the water balance, in its surroundings in an integrative way. We provide a framework to single out the water balance components actual evapotranspiration and lateral subsurface discharge from the gravity time series on annual to daily timescales. With about 99 and 85% of the gravity signal due to local water storage changes originating within a radius of 4000 and 200m around the instrument, respectively, this setup paves the road towards gravimetry as a continuous hydrological field-monitoring technique at the landscape scale.
Landscape and scale-dependent spatial niches of bats foraging above intensively used arable fields
(2017)
Introduction
Bats are threatened by agricultural intensification, and although bat ecology in agricultural landscapes is in the focus of current research, the effects of interacting spatiotemporal factors on species-specific bat activity above farmland remain understudied. Our aim was to identify spatiotemporal factors and their interactions relevant for the activity of bat species above conventionally managed arable fields.
Methods
We repeatedly monitored relative bat activity above open arable fields in Germany using acoustic monitoring. We used site-related biotic and abiotic factors and landscape characteristics across five spatial scales, their combinations, and interactions to identify those factors which best explain variation in bat activity.
Results
Numerous interactions between landscape characteristics and the insect abundance affected bat activity above fields. For instance, Pipistrellus pipistrellus became more active with increasing insect abundance, but only above fields with a low proportion of woody vegetation cover in the surroundings. Additionally, the level of bat activity in summer depended on landscape characteristics. For example, the activity of Pipistrellus nathusii was relatively low in summer above fields that were surrounded by vegetation patches with a high degree of edge complexity (e.g., hedgerow). However, the activity remained at a relatively high level and did not differ between seasons above fields that were surrounded by vegetation patches with a low degree of edge complexity (e.g., roundly shaped forest patch).
Conclusions
Our results revealed that landscape characteristics and their interactions with insect abundance affected bat activity above conventionally managed fields and highlighted the opportunistic foraging behavior of bats. To improve the conditions for bats in agricultural landscapes, we recommend re-establishing landscape heterogeneity to protect aquatic habitats and to increase arthropod availability.
In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.
BACKGROUND: Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤30% is the most powerful prognostic indicator for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients after myocardial infarction (MI), but there are little data about long-term changes of LVEF after revascularization and the following implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator (ICD).
METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 277 patients with reduced LVEF at least 1month after MI and complete revascularization. Patients (median time post-MI 23.4months; 74.3% after PCI, 25.7% after CABG were assigned either to group 1 (LVEF<30%) or group 2 (LVEF 30-40%). Biplane echocardiography was redone after a mean follow-up of 441±220days.
RESULTS: LVEF increased significantly in both two groups (group 1: 26.2±4.8% to 32.4±8.5%; p<0.001; group 2: 38.2±2.5% to 44.4±9.6%; p<0.001). However, statistical analysis of first and second LVEF measurement by means of a LOWESS regression and with an appropriate correction of the regression towards the mean effect revealed only a moderate increase of the mean LVEF from 35 to 37% (p<0.001) with a large interindividual variation.
CONCLUSIONS: The impact of early revascularization on LVEF appears to be low in the majority of post-MI heart failure patients. Owing to the high variability, a single measurement may not be reliable enough to justify a decision on ICD indication.
Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria.& para;& para;To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and its three components (alpha, beta and r) as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation) for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC) are calculated.& para;& para;With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT) approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter.& para;& para;In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria is found for low- and mid-flow conditions. Moreover, the RT analyses emphasise the benefit of an individual analysis of the three components of KGE and of the FDC segments. Furthermore, the RT analyses highlight under which conditions these performance criteria provide insights into precise parameter identification. Our results show that separate performance criteria are required to identify dominant parameters on low- and mid-flow conditions, whilst the number of required performance criteria for high flows increases with increasing process complexity in the catchment. Overall, the analysis of the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria using RTs contribute to a more realistic handling of parameters and performance criteria in hydrological modelling.
The significance of biogenic silicon (BSi) pools as a key factor for the control of Si fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems has been recognized for decades. However, while most research has been focused on phytogenic Si pools, knowledge of other BSi pools is still limited. We hypothesized that different BSi pools influence short-term changes in the water-soluble Si fraction in soils to different extents. To test our hypothesis we took plant (Calamagrostis epigejos, Phragmites australis) and soil samples in an artificial catchment in a post-mining landscape in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. We quantified phytogenic (phytoliths), protistic (diatom frustules and testate amoeba shells) and zoogenic (sponge spicules) Si pools as well as Tironextractable and water-soluble Si fractions in soils at the beginning (t(0)) and after 10 years (t(10)) of ecosystem development. As expected the results of Tiron extraction showed that there are no consistent changes in the amorphous Si pool at Chicken Creek (Huhnerwasser) as early as after 10 years. In contrast to t(0) we found increased water-soluble Si and BSi pools at t(10); thus we concluded that BSi pools are the main driver of short-term changes in water-soluble Si. However, because total BSi represents only small proportions of water-soluble Si at t(0) (< 2 %) and t(10) (2.8-4.3 %) we further concluded that smaller (< 5 mu m) and/or fragile phytogenic Si structures have the biggest impact on short-term changes in water-soluble Si. In this context, extracted phytoliths (> 5 mu m) only amounted to about 16% of total Si con-tents of plant materials of C. epigejos and P. australis at t(10); thus about 84% of small-scale and/or fragile phytogenic Si is not quantified by the used phytolith extraction method. Analyses of small-scale and fragile phytogenic Si structures are urgently needed in future work as they seem to represent the biggest and most reactive Si pool in soils. Thus they are the most important drivers of Si cycling in terrestrial biogeosystems.
We evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of Earth's long-wavelength surface dynamic topography since the Jurassic using a series of high-resolution global mantle convection models. These models are Earth-like in terms of convective vigour, thermal structure, surface heat-flux and the geographic distribution of heterogeneity. The models generate a degree-2-dominated spectrum of dynamic topography with negative amplitudes above subducted slabs (i.e. circum-Pacific regions and southern Eurasia) and positive amplitudes elsewhere (i.e. Africa, north-western Eurasia and the central Pacific). Model predictions are compared with published observations and subsidence patterns from well data, both globally and for the Australian and southern African regions. We find that our models reproduce the long-wavelength component of these observations, although observed smaller-scale variations are not reproduced. We subsequently define "geodynamic rules" for how different surface tectonic settings are affected by mantle processes: (i) locations in the vicinity of a subduction zone show large negative dynamic topography amplitudes; (ii) regions far away from convergent margins feature long-term positive dynamic topography; and (iii) rapid variations in dynamic support occur along the margins of overriding plates (e.g. the western US) and at points located on a plate that rapidly approaches a subduction zone (e.g. India and the Arabia Peninsula). Our models provide a predictive quantitative framework linking mantle convection with plate tectonics and sedimentary basin evolution, thus improving our understanding of how subduction and mantle convection affect the spatio-temporal evolution of basin architecture.
Background
In patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), gait instability, particularly in dual-task situations, has been associated with impaired executive function and an increased fall risk. Ginkgo biloba extract (GBE) could be an effective mean to improve gait stability.
Aims
This study investigated the effect of GBE on spatiotemporal gait parameters of MCI patients while walking under single and dual-task conditions.
Methods
Fifty patients aged 50-85 years with MCI and associated dual-task-related gait impairment participated in this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, exploratory phase IV drug trial. Intervention group (IG) patients received GBE (Symfona (R) forte 120 mg) twice-daily for 6 months while control group (CG) patients received placebo capsules. A 6-month open-label phase with identical GBE dosage followed. Gait was quantified at months 0, 3, 6 and 12.
Results
After 6 months, dual-task-related cadence increased in the IG compared to the CG (p = 0.019, d = 0.71). No significant changes, but GBE-associated numerical non-significant trends were found after 6-month treatment for dual-task-related gait velocity and stride time variability.
Discussion
Findings suggest that 120 mg of GBE twice-daily for at least 6 months may improve dual-task-related gait performance in patients with MCI.
Conclusions
The observed gait improvements add to the understanding of the self-reported unspecified improvements among MCI patients when treated with standardised GBE.
Ancient genomes have revolutionized our understanding of Holocene prehistory and, particularly, the Neolithic transition in western Eurasia. In contrast, East Asia has so far received little attention, despite representing a core region at which the Neolithic transition took place independently similar to 3 millennia after its onset in the Near East. We report genome-wide data from two hunter-gatherers from Devil's Gate, an early Neolithic cave site (dated to similar to 7.7 thousand years ago) located in East Asia, on the border between Russia and Korea. Both of these individuals are genetically most similar to geographically close modern populations from the Amur Basin, all speaking Tungusic languages, and, in particular, to the Ulchi. The similarity to nearby modern populations and the low levels of additional genetic material in the Ulchi imply a high level of genetic continuity in this region during the Holocene, a pattern that markedly contrasts with that reported for Europe.
Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother–child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P < 5 Â 10 À8 . In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights.
Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.
The study deals with the identification and characterization of rapid subsurface flow structures through pedo- and geo-physical measurements and irrigation experiments at the point, plot and hillslope scale. Our investigation of flow-relevant structures and hydrological responses refers to the general interplay of form and function, respectively. To obtain a holistic picture of the subsurface, a large set of different laboratory, exploratory and experimental methods was used at the different scales. For exploration these methods included drilled soil core profiles, in situ measurements of infiltration capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity, and laboratory analyses of soil water retention and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The irrigation experiments at the plot scale were monitored through a combination of dye tracer, salt tracer, soil moisture dynamics, and 3-D time-lapse ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods. At the hillslope scale the subsurface was explored by a 3-D GPR survey. A natural storm event and an irrigation experiment were monitored by a dense network of soil moisture observations and a cascade of 2-D time-lapse GPR "trenches". We show that the shift between activated and non-activated state of the flow paths is needed to distinguish structures from overall heterogeneity. Pedo-physical analyses of point-scale samples are the basis for sub-scale structure inference. At the plot and hillslope scale 3-D and 2-D time-lapse GPR applications are successfully employed as non-invasive means to image subsurface response patterns and to identify flow-relevant paths. Tracer recovery and soil water responses from irrigation experiments deliver a consistent estimate of response velocities. The combined observation of form and function under active conditions provides the means to localize and characterize the structures (this study) and the hydrological processes (companion study Angermann et al., 2017, this issue).
The phrase form and function was established in architecture and biology and refers to the idea that form and functionality are closely correlated, influence each other, and co-evolve. We suggest transferring this idea to hydrological systems to separate and analyze their two main characteristics: their form, which is equivalent to the spatial structure and static properties, and their function, equivalent to internal responses and hydrological behavior. While this approach is not particularly new to hydrological field research, we want to employ this concept to explicitly pursue the question of what information is most advantageous to understand a hydrological system. We applied this concept to subsurface flow within a hillslope, with a methodological focus on function: we conducted observations during a natural storm event and followed this with a hillslope-scale irrigation experiment. The results are used to infer hydrological processes of the monitored system. Based on these findings, the explanatory power and conclusiveness of the data are discussed. The measurements included basic hydrological monitoring methods, like piezometers, soil moisture, and discharge measurements. These were accompanied by isotope sampling and a novel application of 2-D time-lapse GPR (ground-penetrating radar). The main finding regarding the processes in the hillslope was that preferential flow paths were established quickly, despite unsaturated conditions. These flow paths also caused a detectable signal in the catchment response following a natural rainfall event, showing that these processes are relevant also at the catchment scale. Thus, we conclude that response observations (dynamics and patterns, i.e., indicators of function) were well suited to describing processes at the observational scale. Especially the use of 2-D time-lapse GPR measurements, providing detailed subsurface response patterns, as well as the combination of stream-centered and hillslope-centered approaches, allowed us to link processes and put them in a larger context. Transfer to other scales beyond observational scale and generalizations, however, rely on the knowledge of structures (form) and remain speculative. The complementary approach with a methodological focus on form (i.e., structure exploration) is presented and discussed in the companion paper by Jackisch et al. (2017).
Fat loads were quantified for 2125 Yellow-browed Warblers Phylloscopus inornatus trapped at a stop-over site in Far East Russia during autumn migration. Flight ranges of 660–820 km were estimated for the fattest individuals, suggesting that they would need to stop for refuelling at least six times to reach their wintering areas in South East Asia.
Plants frequently have to weather both biotic and abiotic stressors, and have evolved sophisticated adaptation and defense mechanisms. In recent years, chromatin modifications, nucleosome positioning, and DNA methylation have been recognized as important components in these adaptations. Given their potential epigenetic nature, such modifications may provide a mechanistic basis for a stress memory, enabling plants to respond more efficiently to recurring stress or even to prepare their offspring for potential future assaults. In this review, we discuss both the involvement of chromatin in stress responses and the current evidence on somatic, intergenerational, and transgenerational stress memory.