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Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
§§ 327-327u
(2023)
Effect of magnesium salts with chaotropic anions on the swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films
(2023)
Poly(N-isopropylmethacrylamide) (PNIPMAM) is a stimuli responsive polymer, which in thin film geometry exhibits a volume-phase transition upon temperature increase in water vapor. The swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films containing magnesium salts in water vapor is investigated in view of their potential application as nanodevices. Both the extent and the kinetics of the swelling ratio as well as the water content are probed with in situ time-of-flight neutron reflectometry. Additionally, in situ Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy provides information about the local solvation of the specific functional groups, while two-dimensional FTIR correlation analysis further elucidates the temporal sequence of solvation events. The addition of Mg(ClO4)2 or Mg(NO3)2 enhances the sensitivity of the polymer and therefore the responsiveness of switches and sensors based on PNIPMAM thin films. It is found that Mg(NO3)2 leads to a higher relative water uptake and therefore achieves the highest thickness gain in the swollen state.
Thermal electrons have gyroradii many orders of magnitude smaller than the finite width of a shock, thus need to be pre-accelerated before they can cross it and be accelerated by diffusive shock acceleration. One region where pre-acceleration may occur is the inner foreshock, which upstream electrons must pass through before any potential downstream crossing. In this paper, we perform a large-scale particle-in-cell simulation that generates a single shock with parameters motivated from supernova remnants. Within the foreshock, reflected electrons excite the oblique whistler instability and produce electromagnetic whistler waves, which comove with the upstream flow and as nonlinear structures eventually reach radii of up to 5 ion-gyroradii. We show that the inner electromagnetic configuration of the whistlers evolves into complex nonlinear structures bound by a strong magnetic field around four times the upstream value. Although these nonlinear structures do not in general interact with cospatial upstream electrons, they resonate with electrons that have been reflected at the shock. We show that they can scatter, or even trap, reflected electrons, confining around 0.8% of the total upstream electron population to the region close to the shock where they can undergo substantial pre-acceleration. This acceleration process is similar to, yet approximately three times more efficient than, stochastic shock drift acceleration.
Analyzing social wrongs
(2023)
(Moralisch) guter Sex
(2023)
In einem kürzlich erschienenen Artikel argumentiert Almut v. Wedelstaedt überzeugend, warum Zustimmung zwar „die Bedingung für die Legitimation von Sex“ ist (2020, 127), dass die moralische Güte von Sex aber nur dann einzuschätzen ist, wenn wir darauf achten, ob die Beteiligten der Handlung sich auf Augenhöhe begegnen. Die Idee ist: Es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch gut sind, und es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch besser sind. Hier möchte ich die Idee des besseren Sexes genauer ausloten. Während v. Wedelstaedt von moralisch gelungenem Sex spricht und somit auf der Ebene der moralischen Bewertung von Sex bleibt, möchte ich die Frage danach stellen, was Sex qualitativ gut macht. Tatsächlich wird in der Zustimmungsdebatte meist davon ausgegangen, dass diese zwei Fragen wenig gemeinsam haben; ob eine sexuelle Handlung legitim ist, hat zunächst nichts damit zu tun, ob diese auch gut ist. Ich werde drei Argumente liefern, warum wir legitimen Sex und qualitativ guten Sex zusammen betrachten sollten – und es wird sich zeigen, dass die gegenwärtige philosophische und rechtstheoretische Debatte Zustimmung verkürzt diskutiert und daher alleingenommen wenig hilfreich ist, stattdessen benötigt die Zustimmungsdebatte auch eine Untersuchung von qualitativ gutem Sex.
Touching at a Distance
(2023)
Studies the capacity of Shakespeare’s plays to touch and think about touchBased on plays from all major genres: Hamlet, The Tempest, Richard III, Much Ado About Nothing and Troilus and CressidaCentres on creative, close readings of Shakespeare’s plays, which aim to generate critical impulses for the 21st century readerBrings Shakespeare Studies into touch with philosophers and theoreticians from a range of disciplinary areas – continental philosophy, literary criticism, psychoanalysis, sociology, phenomenology, law, linguistics: Friedrich Nietzsche, Maurice Blanchot, Jacques Lacan, Luce Irigaray, Jacques Derrida, Roland Barthes, Niklas Luhmann, Hans Blumenberg, Carl Schmitt, J. L. AustinTheatre has a remarkable capacity: it touches from a distance. The audience is affected, despite their physical separation from the stage. The spectators are moved, even though the fictional world presented to them will never come into direct touch with their real lives. Shakespeare is clearly one of the master practitioners of theatrical touch. As the study shows, his exceptional dramaturgic talent is intrinsically connected with being one of the great thinkers of touch. His plays fathom the complexity and power of a fascinating notion – touch as a productive proximity that is characterised by unbridgeable distance – which philosophers like Friedrich Nietzsche, Maurice Blanchot, Jacques Derrida, Luce Irigaray and Jean-Luc Nancy have written about, centuries later. By playing with touch and its metatheatrical implications, Shakespeare raises questions that make his theatrical art point towards modernity: how are communities to form when traditional institutions begin to crumble? What happens to selfhood when time speeds up, when oneness and timeless truth can no longer serve as reliable foundations? What is the role and the capacity of language in a world that has lost its seemingly unshakeable belief and trust in meaning? How are we to conceive of the unthinkable extremes of human existence – birth and death – when the religious orthodoxy slowly ceases to give satisfactory explanations? Shakespeare’s theatre not only prompts these questions, but provides us with answers. They are all related to touch, and they are all theatrical at their core: they are argued and performed by the striking experience of theatre’s capacities to touch – at a distance
Nicht erst seit Covid-19 sind die Wissens- und Kommunikationslücken sowie die Hierarchie zwischen Ärzt*innen und Patient*innen offensichtlich. Zusätzlich befinden sich kranke Menschen sowohl aufgrund ihrer Krankheit als auch aufgrund ihrer Abhängigkeit vom Gesundheitswesen in einer besonders verletzlichen Lage; Patient*innen sind ein paradigmatisches Beispiel für fragile epistemische Subjekte. Im vorliegenden Text wird zunächst skizziert inwieweit Patient*innen fragile epistemische Subjekte sind und welche Formen testimonialer und hermeneutischer Ungerechtigkeit im Gesundheitswesen besonders zum Tragen kommen. Danach wird ein besonderes Augenmerk auf die Idee gelegt, dass sogenannte „pathozentrische epistemische Ungerechtigkeiten“ durch bestimmte theoretische Vorstellungen von Gesundheit untermauert und reproduziert werden. Hierbei soll schlussendlich untersucht werden, inwieweit dieses Problem durch technische Mittel in der Medizin verstärkt oder geschwächt werden kann; so reproduzieren Algorithmen beispielsweise die vorhandenen Vorstellungen und Praktiken.
Eskalation in Tweets
(2023)
We tested whether a brief self-affirmation writing intervention protected against identity-threats (i.e., stereotyping and discrimination) for adolescents' school-related adjustment. The longitudinal study followed 639 adolescents in Germany (65% of immigrant descent, 50% female, M-age = 12.35 years, SDage = .69) from 7(th) grade (pre-intervention at T1, five to six months post-intervention at T2) to the end of 8(th) grade (one-year follow-up at T3). We tested for direct and moderated (by heritage group, discrimination, classroom cultural diversity climate) effects using regression and latent change models. The self-affirmation intervention did not promote grades or math competence. However, in the short-term and for adolescents of immigrant descent, the intervention prevented a downward trajectory in mastery reactions to academic challenges for those experiencing greater discrimination. Further, it protected against a decline in behavioral school engagement for those in positive classroom cultural diversity climates. In the long-term and for all adolescents, the intervention lessened an upward trajectory in disruptive behavior. Overall, the self-affirmation intervention benefited some aspects of school-related adjustment for adolescents of immigrant and non-immigrant descent. The intervention context is important, with classroom cultural diversity climate acting as a psychological affordance enhancing affirmation effects. Our study supports the ongoing call for theorizing and empirically testing student and context heterogeneity to better understand for whom and under which conditions this intervention may work.
Local laws on urban policy, i.e., ordinances directly affect our daily life in various ways (health, business etc.), yet in practice, for many citizens they remain impervious and complex. This article focuses on an approach to make urban policy more accessible and comprehensible to the general public and to government officials, while also addressing pertinent social media postings. Due to the intricacies of the natural language, ranging from complex legalese in ordinances to informal lingo in tweets, it is practical to harness human judgment here. To this end, we mine ordinances and tweets via reasoning based on commonsense knowledge so as to better account for pragmatics and semantics in the text. Ours is pioneering work in ordinance mining, and thus there is no prior labeled training data available for learning. This gap is filled by commonsense knowledge, a prudent choice in situations involving a lack of adequate training data. The ordinance mining can be beneficial to the public in fathoming policies and to officials in assessing policy effectiveness based on public reactions. This work contributes to smart governance, leveraging transparency in governing processes via public involvement. We focus significantly on ordinances contributing to smart cities, hence an important goal is to assess how well an urban region heads towards a smart city as per its policies mapping with smart city characteristics, and the corresponding public satisfaction.
FicucariconeD (1) and its 4 '-demethyl congener 2 are isoflavones isolated from fruits of Ficus carica that share a 5,7-dimethoxy-6-prenyl-substituted A-ring. Both naturalproducts were, for the first time, obtained by chemical synthesisin six steps, starting from 2,4,6-trihydroxyacetophenone. Key stepsare a microwave-promoted tandem sequence of Claisen- and Cope-rearrangementsto install the 6-prenyl substituent and a Suzuki-Miyaura crosscoupling for installing the B-ring. By using various boronic acids,non-natural analogues become conveniently available. All compoundswere tested for cytotoxicity against drug-sensitive and drug-resistanthuman leukemia cell lines, but were found to be inactive. The compoundswere also tested for antimicrobial activities against a panel of eightGram-negative and two Gram-positive bacterial strains. Addition ofthe efflux pump inhibitor phenylalanine-arginine-beta-naphthylamide(PA beta N) significantly improved the antibiotic activity in mostcases, with MIC values as low as 2.5 mu M and activity improvementfactors as high as 128-fold.
Introduction:
Decision making results not only from logical analyses, but seems to be further guided by the ability to perceive somatic information (interoceptive accuracy). Relations between interoceptive accuracy and decision making have been exclusively studied in adults and with regard to complex, uncertain situations (as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT).
Methods:
In the present study, 1454 children (6-11 years) were examined at two time points (approximately 1 year apart) using an IGT as well as a delay-of-gratification task for sweets-items and toy-items. Interoceptive accuracy was measured using a child-adapted version of the Heartbeat Perception Task.
Results:
The present results revealed that children with higher, as compared to lower, interoceptive accuracy showed more advantageous choices in the IGT and delayed more sweets-items, but not toy-items, in a delay-of-gratification task at time point 2 but not at time point 1. However, no longitudinal relation between interoceptive accuracy and decision making 1 year later could be shown.
Discussion:
Results indicate that interoceptive accuracy relates to decision-making abilities in situations of varying complexity already in middle childhood, and that this link might consolidate across the examined 1-year period. Furthermore, the association of interoceptive accuracy and the delay of sweets-items might have implications for the regulation of body weight at a later age.
Weathering the storm?
(2023)
Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations.
„Die Gefahr eines Blackouts ist gegeben“ gab der Vorsitzende des Deutschen Städte- und Gemeindebundes (DStGB), Gerd Landsberg, am 15. September 2022 in einem Interview mit der Welt am Sonntag bekannt. Diese Diagnose – hier bezogen auf mögliche Engpässe in der Energieversorgung im Winter 2022/23, die durch den kriegerischen Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine zu drohen scheinen – reiht sich einer weiteren Perle gleich in die lange Kette unzähliger Krisendiagnosen der letzten Dekade ein, angesichts derer sich zunehmend der Eindruck einstellen muss, die Krise sei so etwas wie der neue Normalzustand. So ist seit etwas mehr als zehn Jahren die Klimakrise in aller Munde, die letzten drei Jahre wurden von der Corona-Krise dominiert, eine Energiekrise steht möglicherweise unmittelbar bevor.
The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several opportunities to work with event data and even for the most challenging task of comparing event time series with continuous time series. Here, the basic concept is introduced, the challenges are discussed, and the future perspectives are summarized.