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Part of the intorduction: The task of writing a reliable and convincing paper on this topic is a very uneasy one because it is threefold: one has to know at least a bit about the agricultural sector, biology (or more precisely ecology), and about the sometimes beneficial but often distorting consequences of human activities. And all that has to be judged from the perspective of an economist who is aware of the steadily increasing uncertainties which are closely connected with post-modem sciences. Especially with regard to global, but also regional environmental issues, neither the conventional applied sciences nor the traditional professional consultancy deliver promising results. Today scientists have to tackle problems which are created by political necessities overwhelmingly caused by short-term human behavior, due in part to a serious lack of information on the longterm behavioral consequences. In these issues, typically, information stacks are high, scientific facts uncertain, individual as well as collective values disputed, and political decisions very urgent. "In general, the post-normal situation is one where the traditional opposition of 'hard'facts and 'soft' values is inverted. Here we find decisions that are 'hard' in every sense, for which the scientific inputs are irremediably 'soft'" (FUNTOWICZ/RAVETZ, 1991, p. 138).
In this paper a partial least squares (PLS) approach to dynamic modelling with latent variables is proposed. Let Y be a matrix of manifest variables and H the matrix of the corresponding latent variables. And let H = BH+ε be a structural PLS model with a coefficient matrix B. Then this model can be made a dynamic one by substituting for B a matrix F = B + CL containing the lag operator L. Then the structural dynamic model H = FH+ε is formally estimated like an ordinary PLS model. In an exploratory way the model can be used for forecasting purposes. The procedure is being programmed in ISP.
The value concept of traditional resource economics is welfare. Therefore, sustainability of welfare is often taken to characterise our obligations to future generations. This paper argues that this view is inappropriate because it leaves no room for future generations autonomy. Future generations should be free to make their own decisions. Consequently freedom of choice is the appropriate value concept on which resource economics should be based. The concept of sustainability receives a new interpretation. Sustainability is a principle of intertemporal distributive justice which requires equitable opportunities across generations.
Inhalt: 1. Einleitung 1.1. Forschungsziele 1.2. Arbeitsmethodik 1.3. Aufbau der Pilotstudie 2. Kommunale Verwaltungsreform in Brandenburg 3. Die Kreisverwaltung Potsdam-Mittelmark 3.1. Der Landkreis Potsdam-Mittelmark 3.2. Das Personal der Kreisverwaltung 3.3. Verbeamtungskonzept 3.4. Folgen der Kreisgebietsreform 3.5. Gleichstellungsfragen 4. Verwaltungsreform im Landkreis Potsdam-Mittelmark 4.1. Zum Reformansatz 4.2. Weitere Reformschritte 4.3. Ziele der Reform 4.4. Leitbilddiskussion 4.5. Mitarbeiter und Reform 4.6. Personalrat und Reform 4.7. ÖTV und Reform 5. Personalfragen bei der Verwaltungsreform im Landkreis Potsdam-Mittelmark 5.1. Defizite im Personalbereich 5.2. Zur Arbeitsmotivation der Mitarbeiter in der Kreisverwaltung 5.3. Elemente des modernen Personalmanagements 5.4. Instrumente in der Personalarbeit - 5.4.1. Mitarbeiterbefragung - 5.4.2. Weiterbildung - 5.4.2. Weiterbildung 6. Ergebnisse der Pilotstudie 6.1. Besonderheiten der Verwaltungsreform in den neuen Bundesländern am Beispiel Potsdam-Mittelmark 6.2. Zwischenbilanz zur Umsetzung der Modernisierungskonzeption 6.3. Vorschläge für die Fortsetzung des Projekts
Of Rawls's two principles of justice only the second has received attention from economists. The second principle is concerned with the social and economic conditions in a just society. The first principle, however, has largely been neglected. It claims, that all people in society should have equal basic liberties. In this paper Rawls's first principle is characterised in a freedom of choice framework. The analysis reveals conceptual problems of the Rawlsian approach to justice.
In modern political philosophy social contract theory is the most prominent approach to individual rights and fair institutions. According to social contract theory the system of rights in a society ought to be justified by reconstructing its basic features as a contract between the mutually unconcerned members of society. This paper explores whether social contract theory can successfully be applied to justify rights of future generations. Three competing views are analysed: Rawls's theory of justice, Hobbes's radical liberalism and Gauthier's bargaining framework based on the Lockean proviso.
The paper is an enquiry into dynamic social contract theory. The social contract defines the rules of resource use. An intergenerational social contract in an economy with a single exhaustible resource is examined within a framework of an overlapping generations model. It is assumed that new generations do not accept the old social contract, and access to resources will be renegotiated between any incumbent generation and their successors. It turns out that later generations will be in an unfortunate position regardless of their bargaining power.
This paper opens a series of discussion papers which report about the findings of a research project within the Phare-ACE Programme of the European Union. We, a group of Bulgarian, German, Greek, Polish and Scottish economists and agricultural economists, undertake this research to provide An Integrated Analysis of Industrial Policies and Social Security Systems in Countries in Transition.1 This paper outlines the basic motivation for such study.
The concepts of food deficit, hunger, undernourishment and food security are discussed. Axioms and indices for the assessment of nutrition of individuals and groups are suggested. Furthermore a measure for food aid donor performance is developed and applied to a sample of bilateral and multilateral donors providing food aid for African countries.
Inhalt: Introduction: -Some Introductory Examples -Consumer-relevant Utility Dimensions -Communication Flow between the Relevant Actors -Risk Communication Dimensions -Complete Model -Aims of the Study Method: -Participants -Procedure -Content Analysis Results: -Sample Category 1: Food safety -Sample Category 2: Product Quality -Sample Category 3: Freedom of Choice -Sample Category 4: Decision Power over Foodstuffs -Strategy 1: Scientific Information Approach -Strategy 2: Balanced Information Approach -Strategy 3: Product Information Approach -Strategy 4: Classical Advertising -Strategy 5: Trust me I'm no Baddie -Strategy 6: Induction of Fear
Inhalt: Grundgedanken zur Entwicklung von Leitbildern -Leitbilder im Kontext eines Stadtmarketingkonzeptes -Ein Modell zur Entwicklung von Leitbildern -Das Leitbild als ein Element der Entwicklung eines Stadtmarketing- Konzepts -Funktion von Leitbildern -Anforderungen an Leitbilder Beispiele zur Leitbildentwicklung für die Städte Hennigsdorf und Potsdam
Industrial policy measures can be a reasonable supplement to economic and social policy actions during the period of transformation of centrally planned economies. This paper shows the interplay between industrial and social policy. Special attention is given to the timing and sequencing of the transformation process. This approach is closely modeled on the example of New Zealand.
The study presents estimates and analyses of the social expenditure in Poland. Changes which occurred during the transformation period are a reflection of consciously launched political transformations as well as decisions taken as a result of current needs and political pressures. This has an impact on the volume and structure of expenditures which are under consolidation. The debate devoted to budget issues, which gets more intense every autumn, testifies to increasing problems with correcting guidelines for distribution of expenditures. Even slight changes stand for depriving a specified group of transfers, what in democratic conditions produces strong protests. A similar negative attitude to changes became evident with regard to taxation. Recommendations presented in 1998 by the Polish government [see Ministry of Finance, 1998a, 1998b] introduce substantial modifications to the current tax system (withdrawal from tax exemptions and introduction of a tax-free minimum income) and thus met with a massive reluctance of major political fractions. This study provides readers with information on the volume of public expenditures, the source of public revenue, that is taxes, and a thorough study on expenditures allocated to social goals. The analysis was carried out on the basis of own estimates, which employ data acquired from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy.
This paper analyses the macroeconomic developments which have taken place in the Bulgarian economy in the period 1993-1997. The paper also looks at the institutional arrangements and the process of economic policy-making in the country. In this context the problems the Bulgarian economy has experienced in the transition process towards a market-oriented economy are also studied. The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 looks at the institutional arrangements and the process of economic policy-making through 1995. Section 3 studies the deep economic crisis in 1996 and points out what went wrong in that period. Section 4 continues studying the economic crisis of the Bulgarian economy as well as the problems in the transition process during the first half of 1997. Section 5 looks at the economic developments during the second half of 1997 and points to the prospects for growth in 1998. Section 6 deals with the Bulgarian financial institutions and the existing institutional arrangements. Finally, Section 7 concludes the paper.
In centrally planned economies state subsidies were the main instrument of supporting the economic sector. Most of them had also social functions (e.g. through subsidising the consumption of households). In the period of transition, with the withdraw all of the state from economic decisions of the enterprises, new social problems appeared. The paper analyses the process of granting state support to economic units - its scope and forms - in the 90-ties.
Like in all countries in transition, the tax as well as the transfer system have been under serious reform pressures. The socialistic systems were not able to fulfill the necessary functions in providing a certain degree of redistribution and social security, which are inevitable for social oriented market economies. Increasing income and wage differentiation is one of the most important prerequisites for a market oriented ability to pay tax system. But in the transformation period, numerous quasi-legal or even illegal property transactions have taken place, thus leading to wealth concentrations on the one hand while as consequence of the bankruptcy of socialism, enormous poverty problems have arisen on the other. For the political acceptance of the transformation process it is of utmost importance that an efficient and fair tax system is implemented and social security is organised by the state on a level which secures at least the physical minimum of subsistence or – if economically possible – even a social-cultural minimum. Whether the state should go further in providing compulsory social insurance systems has been a hotly debated topic for decades even in the welfare and social states of the Western type. Whereas the basic security systems have to be financed by general tax revenue, for a compulsory social insurance system – due to the insurance character – special earmarked social security contribution are held necessary. Both public goods and services as well as at least basic security have to be financed by total tax revenue. For the acceptance and fairness of the whole system the total redistributive effect of both sides of the budget – the tax system as well as the expenditure system – are decisive. In this paper we will concentrate on the revenue side, e.g. on the taxes as well as on the social security contributions. Adam Smith had already formulated some very simple tax norms which have been transformed in modern tax theory. The equivalence as well as the ability-topay principle are basic yardsticks for every tax system in a democratic oriented market system, not to forget tax fairness. In the historical development process equity-oriented measures have often produced an enormous complexity of the single taxes as well as of the whole tax system. Therefore, reconsidering the Smithian principles of simplicity and of minimum compliance costs for the tax payer would even press many Western European tax systems to undergo serious reform processes which often are delayed because of intense interest group influence. Hence, a modern tax system is a simple one which consists only of a few single taxes which are easy to administer. Such a system consists of two main taxes, the income and the value added tax. Consequently in all countries of transition both taxes have been implemented, while the implementation was fostered by the fact that both also constitute the typical components of the EU member states systems. Therefore such a harmonising tax reform is the most important prerequisite to become a membership candidate. Bulgaria also tried to follow this general pattern in reforming the income tax system starting in 1992 and replacing the old socialistic turnover tax and excise duty system by the value added tax (VAT) in 1994. Especially with regard to the income tax system the demand for simplicity has not been met yet. Complex rules to define the tax base as well as a steeply progressive tax schedule have led to behavioral adaptations which are even strengthened by the effects of a high social contribution burden which is predominantly laid on the employers. In the following some concise descriptions of the tax and social contribution system are given; the paper closes with a summary, in which the impacts of the system are evaluated and some political recommendations for further reforms are presented.
After promising beginnings towards transformation, in 1991 the Bulgarian economy fell into deep crisis in the period from 1995 to 1997. Social policy, already overstrained due to the demands of transition, was unable to cope effectively with the rapidly spreading state of emergency. The following essay analyses the development of the social indicators and instruments of social security in the years 1990 to 1998. In addition to unemployment and unemployment insurance, the issue of pensions and poverty will also be examined.