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Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.
We introduce and study a family of lattice equations which may be viewed either as a strongly nonlinear discrete extension of the Gardner equation, or a non-convex variant of the Lotka-Volterra chain. Their deceptively simple form supports a very rich family of complex solitary patterns. Some of these patterns are also found in the quasi-continuum rendition, but the more intriguing ones, like interlaced pairs of solitary waves, or waves which may reverse their direction either spontaneously or due a collision, are an intrinsic feature of the discrete realm.
Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.
Partial synchronous states appear between full synchrony and asynchrony and exhibit many interesting properties. Most frequently, these states are studied within the framework of phase approximation. The latter is used ubiquitously to analyze coupled oscillatory systems. Typically, the phase dynamics description is obtained in the weak coupling limit, i.e., in the first-order in the coupling strength. The extension beyond the first-order represents an unsolved problem and is an active area of research. In this paper, three partially synchronous states are investigated and presented in order of increasing complexity. First, the usage of the phase response curve for the description of macroscopic oscillators is analyzed. To achieve this, the response of the mean-field oscillations in a model of all-to-all coupled limit-cycle oscillators to pulse stimulation is measured. The next part treats a two-group Kuramoto model, where the interaction of one attractive and one repulsive group results in an interesting solitary state, situated between full synchrony and self-consistent partial synchrony. In the last part, the phase dynamics of a relatively simple system of three Stuart-Landau oscillators are extended beyond the weak coupling limit. The resulting model contains triplet terms in the high-order phase approximation, though the structural connections are only pairwise. Finally, the scaling of the new terms with the coupling is analyzed.
A detailed investigation of the energy levels of perylene-3,4,9,10-tetracarboxylic tetraethylester as a representative compound for the whole family of perylene esters was performed. It was revealed via electrochemical measurements that one oxidation and two reductions take place. The bandgaps determined via the electrochemical approach are in good agreement with the optical bandgap obtained from the absorption spectra via a Tauc plot. In addition, absorption spectra in dependence of the electrochemical potential were the basis for extensive quantum-chemical calculations of the neutral, monoanionic, and dianionic molecules. For this purpose, calculations based on density functional theory were compared with post-Hartree-Fock methods and the CAM-B3LYP functional proved to be the most reliable choice for the calculation of absorption spectra. Furthermore, spectral features found experimentally could be reproduced with vibronic calculations and allowed to understand their origins. In particular, the two lowest energy absorption bands of the anion are not caused by absorption of two distinct electronic states, which might have been expected from vertical excitation calculations, but both states exhibit a strong vibronic progression resulting in contributions to both bands.
We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices.
The Earth's electron radiation belts exhibit a two-zone structure, with the outer belt being highly dynamic due to the constant competition between a number of physical processes, including acceleration, loss, and transport. The flux of electrons in the outer belt can vary over several orders of magnitude, reaching levels that may disrupt satellite operations. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms that drive these variations is of high interest to the scientific community.
In particular, the important role played by loss mechanisms in controlling relativistic electron dynamics has become increasingly clear in recent years. It is now widely accepted that radiation belt electrons can be lost either by precipitation into the atmosphere or by transport across the magnetopause, called magnetopause shadowing. Precipitation of electrons occurs due to pitch-angle scattering by resonant interaction with various types of waves, including whistler mode chorus, plasmaspheric hiss, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. In addition, the compression of the magnetopause due to increases in solar wind dynamic pressure can substantially deplete electrons at high L shells where they find themselves in open drift paths, whereas electrons at low L shells can be lost through outward radial diffusion. Nevertheless, the role played by each physical process during electron flux dropouts still remains a fundamental puzzle.
Differentiation between these processes and quantification of their relative contributions to the evolution of radiation belt electrons requires high-resolution profiles of phase space density (PSD). However, such profiles of PSD are difficult to obtain due to restrictions of spacecraft observations to a single measurement in space and time, which is also compounded by the inaccuracy of instruments. Data assimilation techniques aim to blend incomplete and inaccurate spaceborne data with physics-based models in an optimal way. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct the entire radial profile of electron PSD, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment.
In this study, sparse measurements from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 are assimilated into the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) diffusion model, by means of a split-operator Kalman filter over a four-year period from 01 October 2012 to 01 October 2016. In comparison to previous works, the 3D model accounts for more physical processes, namely mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by EMIC waves, and magnetopause shadowing. It is shown how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector (the residual between observations and model forecast), can be used to account for missing physics in the model. This method is used to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where the model is inconsistent with the measured PSD for different values of the adiabatic invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and this is interpreted as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active.
Furthermore, two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons are investigated: EMIC wave-induced scattering and magnetopause shadowing. The innovation vector is inspected for values of the invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3000 MeV/G, and a statistical analysis is performed to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. The results of this work are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. EMIC wave scattering dominates loss at lower L shells and it may amount to between 10%/hr to 30%/hr of the maximum value of PSD over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt.
The results of this study are two-fold. Firstly, it demonstrates that the 3D data assimilative code provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belts and is an important step toward performing reanalysis using observations from current and future missions. Secondly, it achieves a better understanding and provides critical clues of the dominant loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of electrons at different locations over the outer radiation belt.
The ultrafast photo-induced ring opening of the oxirane derivative trans-stilbene oxide has been studied through the use of ultrafast UV/UV pump-probe spectroscopy by using photo-ion detection. Single- and multiphoton probe paths and final states were identified through comparisons between UV power studies and synchrotron-based vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) single-photon ionization studies. Three major time-dependent features of the parent ion (sub-450 fs decay, (1.5 +/- 0.2) ps, and >100 ps) were observed. These decays are discussed in conjunction with the primary ring-opening mechanism of stilbene oxide, which occurs through C-C dissociation in the oxirane ring. The appearance of fragments relating to the masses of dehydrogenated diphenylmethane (167 amu) and dehydrogenated methylbenzene (90 amu) were also investigated. The appearance of the 167 amu fragment could suggest an alternative ultrafast ring-opening pathway via the dissociation of one of the C-O bonds within the oxirane ring.
Remote synchronization implies that oscillators interacting not directly but via an additional unit (hub) adjust their frequencies and exhibit frequency locking while the hub remains asynchronous. In this paper, we analyze the mechanisms of remote synchrony in a small network of three coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators using recent results on higher-order phase reduction. We analytically demonstrate the role of two factors promoting remote synchrony. These factors are the nonisochronicity of oscillators and the coupling terms appearing in the secondorder phase approximation. We show a good correspondence between our theory and numerical results for small and moderate coupling strengths.
In the frame of a world fighting a dramatic global warming caused by human-related activities, research towards the development of renewable energies plays a crucial role. Solar energy is one of the most important clean energy sources and its role in the satisfaction of the global energy demand is set to increase. In this context, a particular class of materials captured the attention of the scientific community for its attractive properties: halide perovskites. Devices with perovskite as light-absorber saw an impressive development within the last decade, reaching nowadays efficiencies comparable to mature photovoltaic technologies like silicon solar cells. Yet, there are still several roadblocks to overcome before a wide-spread commercialization of this kind of devices is enabled. One of the critical points lies at the interfaces: perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are made of several layers with different chemical and physical features. In order for the device to function properly, these properties have to be well-matched.
This dissertation deals with some of the challenges related to interfaces in PSCs, with a focus on the interface between the perovskite material itself and the subsequent charge transport layer. In particular, molecular assemblies with specific properties are deposited on the perovskite surface to functionalize it. The functionalization results in energy level alignment adjustment, interfacial losses reduction, and stability improvement.
First, a strategy to tune the perovskite’s energy levels is introduced: self-assembled monolayers of dipolar molecules are used to functionalize the surface, obtaining simultaneously a shift in the vacuum level position and a saturation of the dangling bonds at the surface. A shift in the vacuum level corresponds to an equal change in work function, ionization energy, and electron affinity. The direction of the shift depends on the direction of the collective interfacial dipole. The magnitude of the shift can be tailored by controlling the deposition parameters, such as the concentration of the solution used for the deposition. The shift for different molecules is characterized by several non-invasive techniques, including in particular Kelvin probe. Overall, it is shown that it is possible to shift the perovskite energy levels in both directions by several hundreds of meV. Moreover, interesting insights on the molecules deposition dynamics are revealed.
Secondly, the application of this strategy in perovskite solar cells is explored. Devices with different perovskite compositions (“triple cation perovskite” and MAPbBr3) are prepared. The two resulting model systems present different energetic offsets at the perovskite/hole-transport layer interface. Upon tailored perovskite surface functionalization, the devices show a stabilized open circuit voltage (Voc) enhancement of approximately 60 meV on average for devices with MAPbBr3, while the impact is limited on triple-cation solar cells. This suggests that the proposed energy level tuning method is valid, but its effectiveness depends on factors such as the significance of the energetic offset compared to the other losses in the devices.
Finally, the above presented method is further developed by incorporating the ability to interact with the perovskite surface directly into a novel hole-transport material (HTM), named PFI. The HTM can anchor to the perovskite halide ions via halogen bonding (XB). Its behaviour is compared to that of another HTM (PF) with same chemical structure and properties, except for the ability of forming XB. The interaction of perovskite with PFI and PF is characterized through UV-Vis, atomic force microscopy and Kelvin probe measurements combined with simulations. Compared to PF, PFI exhibits enhanced resilience against solvent exposure and improved energy level alignment with the perovskite layer. As a consequence, devices comprising PFI show enhanced Voc and operational stability during maximum-power-point tracking, in addition to hysteresis reduction. XB promotes the formation of a high-quality interface by anchoring to the halide ions and forming a stable and ordered interfacial layer, showing to be a particularly interesting candidate for the development of tailored charge transport materials in PSCs.
Overall, the results exposed in this dissertation introduce and discuss a versatile tool to functionalize the perovskite surface and tune its energy levels. The application of this method in devices is explored and insights on its challenges and advantages are given. Within this frame, the results shed light on XB as ideal interaction for enhancing stability and efficiency in perovskite-based devices.