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Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.
Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.
Recent research has shown that many cold-adapted species survived the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northern refugia. Whether this evolutionary history has had consequences for their genetic diversity and adaptive potential remains unknown. We sampled 14 populations of Carex limosa, a sedge specialized to bog ecosystems, along a latitudinal gradient from its Scandinavian core to the southern lowland range-margin in Germany. Using microsatellite and experimental common-garden data, we evaluated the impacts of global climate change along this gradient and assessed the conservation status of the southern marginal populations. Microsatellite data revealed two highly distinct genetic groups and hybrid individuals. In our common-garden experiment, the two groups showed divergent responses to increased nitrogen/phosphorus (N/P) availability, suggesting ecotypic differentiation. Each group formed genetically uniform populations at both northern and southern sampling areas. Mixed populations occurred throughout our sampling area, an area that was entirely glaciated during the LGM. The fragmented distribution implies allopatric divergence at geographically separated refugia that putatively differed in N/P availability. Molecular data and an observed low hybrid fecundity indicate the importance of clonal reproduction for hybrid populations. At the southern range-margin, however, all populations showed effects of clonality, lowered fecundity and low competitiveness, suggesting abiotic and biotic constraints to population persistence.
Specialisation and diversity of multiple trophic groups are promoted by different forest features
(2019)
While forest management strongly influences biodiversity, it remains unclear how the structural and compositional changes caused by management affect different community dimensions (e.g. richness, specialisation, abundance or completeness) and how this differs between taxa. We assessed the effects of nine forest features (representing stand structure, heterogeneity and tree composition) on thirteen above- and belowground trophic groups of plants, animals, fungi and bacteria in 150 temperate forest plots differing in their management type. Canopy cover decreased light resources, which increased community specialisation but reduced overall diversity and abundance. Features increasing resource types and diversifying microhabitats (admixing of oaks and conifers) were important and mostly affected richness. Belowground groups responded differently to those aboveground and had weaker responses to most forest features. Our results show that we need to consider forest features rather than broad management types and highlight the importance of considering several groups and community dimensions to better inform conservation.
This is a publication-based dissertation comprising three original research stud-ies (one published, one submitted and one ready for submission; status March 2019). The dissertation introduces a generic computer model as a tool to investigate the behaviour and population dynamics of animals in cyclic environments. The model is further employed for analysing how migratory birds respond to various scenarios of altered food supply under global change. Here, ecological and evolutionary time-scales are considered, as well as the biological constraints and trade-offs the individual faces, which ultimately shape response dynamics at the population level. Further, the effect of fine-scale temporal patterns in re-source supply are studied, which is challenging to achieve experimentally. My findings predict population declines, altered behavioural timing and negative carry-over effects arising in migratory birds under global change. They thus stress the need for intensified research on how ecological mechanisms are affected by global change and for effective conservation measures for migratory birds. The open-source modelling software created for this dissertation can now be used for other taxa and related research questions. Overall, this thesis improves our mechanistic understanding of the impacts of global change on migratory birds as one prerequisite to comprehend ongoing global biodiversity loss. The research results are discussed in a broader ecological and scientific context in a concluding synthesis chapter.
Global change has complex eco-evolutionary consequences for organisms and ecosystems, but related concepts (e.g., novel ecosystems) do not cover their full range. Here we propose an umbrella concept of "ecological novelty" comprising (1) a site-specific and (2) an organism-centered, eco-evolutionary perspective. Under this umbrella, complementary options for studying and communicating effects of global change on organisms, ecosystems, and landscapes can be included in a toolbox. This allows researchers to address ecological novelty from different perspectives, e.g., by defining it based on (a) categorical or continuous measures, (b) reference conditions related to sites or organisms, and (c) types of human activities. We suggest striving for a descriptive, non-normative usage of the term "ecological novelty" in science. Normative evaluations and decisions about conservation policies or management are important, but require additional societal processes and engagement with multiple stakeholders.
Aim: Across the planet, grass-dominated biomes are experiencing shrub encroachment driven by atmospheric CO2 enrichment and land-use change. By altering resource structure and availability, shrub encroachment may have important impacts on vertebrate communities. We sought to determine the magnitude and variability of these effects across climatic gradients, continents, and taxa, and to learn whether shrub thinning restores the structure of vertebrate communities. Location: Worldwide. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial vertebrates. Methods: We estimated relationships between percentage shrub cover and the structure of terrestrial vertebrate communities (species richness, Shannon diversity and community abundance) in experimentally thinned and unmanipulated shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes using systematic review and meta-analyses of 43 studies published from 1978 to 2016. We modelled the effects of continent, biome, mean annual precipitation, net primary productivity and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the relationship between shrub cover and vertebrate community structure. Results: Species richness, Shannon diversity and total abundance had no consistent relationship with shrub encroachment and experimental thinning did not reverse encroachment effects on vertebrate communities. However, some effects of shrub encroachment on vertebrate communities differed with net primary productivity, amongst vertebrate groups, and across continents. Encroachment had negative effects on vertebrate diversity at low net primary productivity. Mammalian and herpetofaunal diversity decreased with shrub encroachment. Shrub encroachment also had negative effects on species richness and total abundance in Africa but positive effects in North America. Main conclusions: Biodiversity conservation and mitigation efforts responding to shrub encroachment should focus on low-productivity locations, on mammals and herpetofauna, and in Africa. However, targeted research in neglected regions such as central Asia and India will be needed to fill important gaps in our knowledge of shrub encroachment effects on vertebrates. Additionally, our findings provide an impetus for determining the mechanisms associated with changes in vertebrate diversity and abundance in shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes.
Understanding how variance in environmental factors affects physiological performance, population growth, and persistence is central in ecology. Despite recent interest in the effects of variance in single biological drivers, such as temperature, we have lacked a comprehensive framework for predicting how the variances and covariances between multiple environmental factors will affect physiological rates. Here, we integrate current theory on variance effects with co-limitation theory into a single unified conceptual framework that has general applicability. We show how the framework can be applied (1) to generate mathematically tractable predictions of the physiological effects of multiple fluctuating co-limiting factors, (2) to understand how each co-limiting factor contributes to these effects, and (3) to detect mechanisms such as acclimation or physiological stress when they are at play. We show that the statistical covariance of co-limiting factors, which has not been considered before, can be a strong driver of physiological performance in various ecological contexts. Our framework can provide powerful insights on how the global change-induced shifts in multiple environmental factors affect the physiological performance of organisms.
Both Alpine and Mediterranean areas are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods which are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazards from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes the climatological and physical conditions that could influence the hydrology and sediment generation and hence the conveyance of water and sediments (including the river’s capacity, i.e. amount of sediment, and competence, i.e. channel deformation) and the vulnerabilities and economic repercussions of changing hydrological hazards (including the evaluation of the hydro-geomorphological risks too).
Within this framework, the purpose of this international symposium is to bring together researchers from several disciplines as hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, geography, economy (and any other related discipline) to discuss the effects of global change over the river system in relation with floods. The symposium is organized by means of invited talks given by prominent experts, oral lectures, poster sessions and discussion sessions for each individual topic; it will try to improve our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change and hence address the associated hazards of that fluvial environmental change concerning flooding.
Four main topics are going to be addressed:
- Modelling global change (i.e. climate and land-use) at relevant spatial (regional, local) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales.
- Measuring and modelling river floods from the hydrological, sediment transport (both suspended and bedload) and channel morphology points of view at different spatial (from the catchment to the reach) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales.
- Evaluation and assessment of current and future river flooding hazards and risks in a global change perspective.
- Catchment management to face river floods in a changing world.
We are very pleased to welcome you to Potsdam. We hope you will enjoy your participation at the International Symposium on the Effects of Global Change on Floods, Fluvial Geomorphology and Related Hazards in Mountainous Rivers and have an exciting and profitable experience. Finally, we would like to thank all speakers, participants, supporters, and sponsors for their contributions that for sure will make of this event a very remarkable and fruitful meeting. We acknowledge the valuable support of the European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship, Project ‘‘Floodhazards’’, PIEF-GA-2013-622468, Seventh EU Framework Programme) and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1) as the symposium would not have been possible without their help. Without your cooperation, this symposium would not be either possible or successful.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the best studied one, can convey environmental information through generations via parental germ lines. Past studies have focused on the maternal transmission of epigenetic information to the offspring of isogenic mice and rats in response to external changes, whereas heterogeneous wild mammals as well as paternal epigenetic effects have been widely neglected. In most wild mammal species, males are the dispersing sex and have to cope with differing habitats and thermal changes. As temperature is a major environmental factor we investigated if genetically heterogeneous Wild guinea pig (Cavia aperea) males can adapt epigenetically to an increase in temperature and if that response will be transmitted to the next generation(s). Five adult male guinea pigs (F0) were exposed to an increased ambient temperature for 2 months, i.e. the duration of spermatogenesis. We studied the liver (as the main thermoregulatory organ) of F0 fathers and F1 sons, and testes of F1 sons for paternal transmission of epigenetic modifications across generation(s). Reduced representation bisulphite sequencing revealed shared differentially methylated regions in annotated areas between F0 livers before and after heat treatment, and their sons’ livers and testes, which indicated a general response with ecological relevance. Thus, paternal exposure to a temporally limited increased ambient temperature led to an ‘immediate’ and ‘heritable’ epigenetic response that may even be transmitted to the F2 generation. In the context of globally rising temperatures epigenetic mechanisms may become increasingly relevant for the survival of species.