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Climate change fundamentally transforms glaciated high-alpine regions, with well-known cryospheric and hydrological implications, such as accelerating glacier retreat, transiently increased runoff, longer snow-free periods and more frequent and intense summer rainstorms. These changes affect the availability and transport of sediments in high alpine areas by altering the interaction and intensity of different erosion processes and catchment properties.
Gaining insight into the future alterations in suspended sediment transport by high alpine streams is crucial, given its wide-ranging implications, e.g. for flood damage potential, flood hazard in downstream river reaches, hydropower production, riverine ecology and water quality. However, the current understanding of how climate change will impact suspended sediment dynamics in these high alpine regions is limited. For one, this is due to the scarcity of measurement time series that are long enough to e.g. infer trends. On the other hand, it is difficult – if not impossible – to develop process-based models, due to the complexity and multitude of processes involved in high alpine sediment dynamics. Therefore, knowledge has so far been confined to conceptual models (which do not facilitate deriving concrete timings or magnitudes for individual catchments) or qualitative estimates (‘higher export in warmer years’) that may not be able to capture decreases in sediment export. Recently, machine-learning approaches have gained in popularity for modeling sediment dynamics, since their black box nature tailors them to the problem at hand, i.e. relatively well-understood input and output data, linked by very complex processes.
Therefore, the overarching aim of this thesis is to estimate sediment export from the high alpine Ötztal valley in Tyrol, Austria, over decadal timescales in the past and future – i.e. timescales relevant to anthropogenic climate change. This is achieved by informing, extending, evaluating and applying a quantile regression forest (QRF) approach, i.e. a nonparametric, multivariate machine-learning technique based on random forest.
The first study included in this thesis aimed to understand present sediment dynamics, i.e. in the period with available measurements (up to 15 years). To inform the modeling setup for the two subsequent studies, this study identified the most important predictors, areas within the catchments and time periods. To that end, water and sediment yields from three nested gauges in the upper Ötztal, Vent, Sölden and Tumpen (98 to almost 800 km² catchment area, 930 to 3772 m a.s.l.) were analyzed for their distribution in space, their seasonality and spatial differences therein, and the relative importance of short-term events. The findings suggest that the areas situated above 2500 m a.s.l., containing glacier tongues and recently deglaciated areas, play a pivotal role in sediment generation across all sub-catchments. In contrast, precipitation events were relatively unimportant (on average, 21 % of annual sediment yield was associated to precipitation events). Thus, the second and third study focused on the Vent catchment and its sub-catchment above gauge Vernagt (11.4 and 98 km², 1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), due to their higher share of areas above 2500 m. Additionally, they included discharge, precipitation and air temperature (as well as their antecedent conditions) as predictors.
The second study aimed to estimate sediment export since the 1960s/70s at gauges Vent and Vernagt. This was facilitated by the availability of long records of the predictors, discharge, precipitation and air temperature, and shorter records (four and 15 years) of turbidity-derived sediment concentrations at the two gauges. The third study aimed to estimate future sediment export until 2100, by applying the QRF models developed in the second study to pre-existing precipitation and temperature projections (EURO-CORDEX) and discharge projections (physically-based hydroclimatological and snow model AMUNDSEN) for the three representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
The combined results of the second and third study show overall increasing sediment export in the past and decreasing export in the future. This suggests that peak sediment is underway or has already passed – unless precipitation changes unfold differently than represented in the projections or changes in the catchment erodibility prevail and override these trends. Despite the overall future decrease, very high sediment export is possible in response to precipitation events. This two-fold development has important implications for managing sediment, flood hazard and riverine ecology.
This thesis shows that QRF can be a very useful tool to model sediment export in high-alpine areas. Several validations in the second study showed good performance of QRF and its superiority to traditional sediment rating curves – especially in periods that contained high sediment export events, which points to its ability to deal with threshold effects. A technical limitation of QRF is the inability to extrapolate beyond the range of values represented in the training data. We assessed the number and severity of such out-of-observation-range (OOOR) days in both studies, which showed that there were few OOOR days in the second study and that uncertainties associated with OOOR days were small before 2070 in the third study. As the pre-processed data and model code have been made publically available, future studies can easily test further approaches or apply QRF to further catchments.
A reliable estimation of flood impacts enables meaningful flood risk management and rapid assessments of flood impacts shortly after a flood. The flood in 2021 in Central Europe and the analysis of its impacts revealed that these estimations are still inadequate. Therefore, we investigate the influence of different data sets and methods aiming to improve flood impact estimates. We estimated economic flood impacts to private households and companies for a flood event in 2013 in Germany using (a) two different flood maps, (b) two approaches to map exposed objects based on OpenStreetMap and the Basic European Asset Map, (c) two different approaches to estimate asset values, and (d) tree-based models and Stage-Damage-Functions to describe the vulnerability. At the macro scale, water masks lead to reasonable impact estimations. At the micro and meso-scale, the identification of affected objects by means of water masks is insufficient leading to unreliable estimations. The choice of exposure data sets is most influential on the estimations. We find that reliable impact estimations are feasible with reported numbers of flood-affected objects from the municipalities. We conclude that more effort should be put in the investigation of different exposure data sets and the estimation of asset values. Furthermore, we recommend the establishment of a reporting system in the municipalities for a fast identification of flood-affected objects shortly after an event.
Volcanic tremor extraction and earthquake detection using music information retrieval algorithms
(2021)
Volcanic tremor signals are usually observed before or during volcanic eruptions and must be monitored to evaluate the volcanic activity. A challenge in studying seismic signals of volcanic origin is the coexistence of transient signal swarms and long-lasting volcanic tremor signals. Separating transient events from volcanic tremors can, therefore, contrib-ute to improving upon our understanding of the underlying physical processes. Exploiting the idea of harmonic-percussive separation in musical signal processing, we develop a method to extract the harmonic volcanic tremor signals and to detect tran-sient events from seismic recordings. Based on the similarity properties of spectrogram frames in the time-frequency domain, we decompose the signal into two separate spec-trograms representing repeating (harmonic) and nonrepeating (transient) patterns, which correspond to volcanic tremor signals and earthquake signals, respectively. We reconstruct the harmonic tremor signal in the time domain from the complex spectrogram of the repeating pattern by only considering the phase components for the frequency range in which the tremor amplitude spectrum is significantly contribut-ing to the energy of the signal. The reconstructed signal is, therefore, clean tremor signal without transient events. Furthermore, we derive a characteristic function suitable for the detection of tran-sient events (e.g., earthquakes) by integrating amplitudes of the nonrepeating spectro-gram over frequency at each time frame. Considering transient events like earthquakes, 78% of the events are detected for signal-to-noise ratio = 0.1 in our semisynthetic tests. In addition, we compared the number of detected earthquakes using our method for one month of continuous data recorded during the Holuhraun 2014-2015 eruption in Iceland with the bulletin presented in Agustsdottir et al. (2019). Our single station event detection algorithm identified 84% of the bulletin events. Moreover, we detected a total of 12,619 events, which is more than twice the number of the bulletin events.
Rainfall-triggered landslides are a globally occurring hazard that cause several thousand fatalities per year on average and lead to economic damages by destroying buildings and infrastructure and blocking transportation networks. For people living and governing in susceptible areas, knowing not only where, but also when landslides are most probable is key to inform strategies to reduce risk, requiring reliable assessments of weather-related landslide hazard and adequate warning. Taking proper action during high hazard periods, such as moving to higher levels of houses, closing roads and rail networks, and evacuating neighborhoods, can save lives. Nevertheless, many regions of the world with high landslide risk currently lack dedicated, operational landslide early warning systems.
The mounting availability of temporal landslide inventory data in some regions has increasingly enabled data-driven approaches to estimate landslide hazard on the basis of rainfall conditions. In other areas, however, such data remains scarce, calling for appropriate statistical methods to estimate hazard with limited data. The overarching motivation for this dissertation is to further our ability to predict rainfall-triggered landslides in time in order to expand and improve warning. To this end, I applied Bayesian inference to probabilistically quantify and predict landslide activity as a function of rainfall conditions at spatial scales ranging from a small coastal town, to metropolitan areas worldwide, to a multi-state region, and temporal scales from hourly to seasonal. This thesis is composed of three studies.
In the first study, I contributed to developing and validating statistical models for an online landslide warning dashboard for the small town of Sitka, Alaska, USA. We used logistic and Poisson regressions to estimate daily landslide probability and counts from an inventory of only five reported landslide events and 18 years of hourly precipitation measurements at the Sitka airport. Drawing on community input, we established two warning thresholds for implementation in the dashboard, which uses observed rainfall and US National Weather Service forecasts to provide real-time estimates of landslide hazard.
In the second study, I estimated rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for shallow landsliding for 26 cities worldwide and a global threshold for urban landslides. I found that landslides in urban areas occurred at rainfall intensities that were lower than previously reported global thresholds, and that 31% of urban landslides were triggered during moderate rainfall events. However, landslides in cities with widely varying climates and topographies were triggered above similar critical rainfall intensities: thresholds for 77% of cities were indistinguishable from the global threshold, suggesting that urbanization may harmonize thresholds between cities, overprinting natural variability. I provide a baseline threshold that could be considered for warning in cities with limited landslide inventory data.
In the third study, I investigated seasonal landslide response to annual precipitation patterns in the Pacific Northwest region, USA by using Bayesian multi-level models to combine data from five heterogeneous landslide inventories that cover different areas and time periods. I quantitatively confirmed a distinctly seasonal pattern of landsliding and found that peak landslide activity lags the annual precipitation peak. In February, at the height of the landslide season, landslide intensity for a given amount of monthly rainfall is up to ten times higher than at the season onset in November, underlining the importance of antecedent seasonal hillslope conditions.
Together, these studies contributed actionable, objective information for landslide early warning and examples for the application of Bayesian methods to probabilistically quantify landslide hazard from inventory and rainfall data.
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.
Hazards and accessibility
(2018)
The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area’s local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of
the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
Mapping Damage-Affected Areas after Natural Hazard Events Using Sentinel-1 Coherence Time Series
(2018)
The emergence of the Sentinel-1A and 1B satellites now offers freely available and widely accessible Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Near-global coverage and rapid repeat time (6–12 days) gives Sentinel-1 data the potential to be widely used for monitoring the Earth’s surface. Subtle land-cover and land surface changes can affect the phase and amplitude of the C-band SAR signal, and thus the coherence between two images collected before and after such changes. Analysis of SAR coherence therefore serves as a rapidly deployable and powerful tool to track both seasonal changes and rapid surface disturbances following natural disasters. An advantage of using Sentinel-1 C-band radar data is the ability to easily construct time series of coherence for a region of interest at low cost. In this paper, we propose a new method for Potentially Affected Area (PAA) detection following a natural hazard event. Based on the coherence time series, the proposed method (1) determines the natural variability of coherence within each pixel in the region of interest, accounting for factors such as seasonality and the inherent noise of variable surfaces; and (2) compares pixel-by-pixel syn-event coherence to temporal coherence distributions to determine where statistically significant coherence loss has occurred. The user can determine to what degree the syn-event coherence value (e.g., 1st, 5th percentile of pre-event distribution) constitutes a PAA, and integrate pertinent regional data, such as population density, to rank and prioritise PAAs. We apply the method to two case studies, Sarpol-e, Iran following the 2017 Iran-Iraq earthquake, and a landslide-prone region of NW Argentina, to demonstrate how rapid identification and interpretation of potentially affected areas can be performed shortly following a natural hazard event.
Mapping Damage-Affected Areas after Natural Hazard Events Using Sentinel-1 Coherence Time Series
(2018)
The emergence of the Sentinel-1A and 1B satellites now offers freely available and widely accessible Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Near-global coverage and rapid repeat time (6–12 days) gives Sentinel-1 data the potential to be widely used for monitoring the Earth’s surface. Subtle land-cover and land surface changes can affect the phase and amplitude of the C-band SAR signal, and thus the coherence between two images collected before and after such changes. Analysis of SAR coherence therefore serves as a rapidly deployable and powerful tool to track both seasonal changes and rapid surface disturbances following natural disasters. An advantage of using Sentinel-1 C-band radar data is the ability to easily construct time series of coherence for a region of interest at low cost. In this paper, we propose a new method for Potentially Affected Area (PAA) detection following a natural hazard event. Based on the coherence time series, the proposed method (1) determines the natural variability of coherence within each pixel in the region of interest, accounting for factors such as seasonality and the inherent noise of variable surfaces; and (2) compares pixel-by-pixel syn-event coherence to temporal coherence distributions to determine where statistically significant coherence loss has occurred. The user can determine to what degree the syn-event coherence value (e.g., 1st, 5th percentile of pre-event distribution) constitutes a PAA, and integrate pertinent regional data, such as population density, to rank and prioritise PAAs. We apply the method to two case studies, Sarpol-e, Iran following the 2017 Iran-Iraq earthquake, and a landslide-prone region of NW Argentina, to demonstrate how rapid identification and interpretation of potentially affected areas can be performed shortly following a natural hazard event.