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Thermokarst lakes are prevalent in Arctic coastal lowland regions and sublake permafrost degradation and talik development contributes to greenhouse gas emissions by tapping the large permafrost carbon pool. Whereas lateral thermokarst lake expansion is readily apparent through remote sensing and shoreline measurements, sublake thawed sediment conditions and talik growth are difficult to measure. Here we combine transient electromagnetic surveys with thermal modeling, backed up by measured permafrost properties and radiocarbon ages, to reveal closed-talik geometry associated with a thermokarst lake in continuous permafrost. To improve access to talik geometry data, we conducted surveys along three transient electromagnetic transects perpendicular to lakeshores with different decadal-scale expansion rates of 0.16, 0.38, and 0.58m/year. We modeled thermal development of the talik using boundary conditions based on field data from the lake, surrounding permafrost and a borehole, independent of the transient electromagnetics. A talik depth of 91m was determined from analysis of the transient electromagnetic surveys. Using a lake initiation age of 1400years before present and available subsurface properties the results from thermal modeling of the lake center arrived at a best estimate talk depth of 80m, which is on the same order of magnitude as the results from the transient electromagnetic survey. Our approach has provided a noninvasive estimate of talik geometry suitable for comparable settings throughout circum-Arctic coastal lowland regions.
Taking into account the climatic conditions of the semiarid region of Brazil, with its intermittent rivers and long periods of water scarcity, a dense network of surface reservoirs (on average one dam every 5 km(2)) of very different sizes has been built. The impact of such a network on water and sediment dynamics constitutes a remarkable challenge for hydrologists. The main objective of this work is to present a novel way of simulating water and sediment fluxes through such high-density reservoir networks, which enables the assessment of water and sediment retention in those structures. The new reservoir modeling approach has been coupled with the fully process-oriented and semidistributed hydrological WASA-SED model, which was tailored for semiarid hydroclimatological characteristics. This integrated modeling system was applied to the 933-km(2) Bengue catchment, located in semiarid northeastern Brazil, which has a network of 114 reservoirs with a wide range of surface areas (from 0.003 to 350 ha). The small reservoirs were grouped into size classes according to their storage capacity and a cascade routing scheme was applied to describe the upstream-downstream position of the classes; the large reservoirs were handled explicitly in the reservoir modeling approach. According to the model results, the proposed approach is capable of representing the water and sediment fluxes though the entire reservoir network with reasonable accuracy. In addition, the model shows that the dynamics of water and sediment within the Bengue catchment are strongly impacted by the presence of multiple reservoirs, which are able to retain approximately 21% of the generated runoff and almost 42% of the sediment yield of the catchment for the simulation period, from 2000 to 2012. (C) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Reading the sediment record in terms of past climates is challenging since linking climate change to the associated responses of sedimentary systems is not always straightforward. Here we analyze the erosional response of landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau to interglacial climate forcing. Using the theory of dynamical systems on Holocene time series of geochemical proxies, we derive a sedimentary response model that accurately simulates observed proxy variation in three lake records. The model suggests that millennial variations in sediment composition reflect a self-organization of landscapes in response to abrupt climate change between 11.6 and 11.9 ka BP. The self-organization is characterized by oscillations in sediment supply emerging from a feedback between physical and chemical erosion processes, with estimated response times between 3,000 to 18,000 years depending on catchment topography. The implications of our findings emphasize the need for landscape response models to decipher the paleoclimatic code in continental sediment records. Plain Language Summary Lake sediments are an important source of information on past climates. Reading the information is not always straightforward. Complex interactions in landscapes can affect the transmission of climatic signals to the sediment record. However, the exact nature of such complex interactions remains unknown. This study compares sediment deposits of three lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The deposits are continuous records of landscape responses to climate change during the last 12,000 years. We identified a mathematical model that accurately simulates changes in sediment composition at all sites. The model simulations suggest that an abrupt warming at the end of the last glacial period destabilized the landscapes. This caused fluctuations in the transport of sediments, which persisted for several thousand years. Our findings present evidence for a long-lasting impact of abrupt climate change on fundamental Earth surface processes.
Movements of tectonic plates often induce oblique deformation at divergent plate boundaries. This is in striking contrast with traditional conceptual models of rifting and rifted margin formation, which often assume 2-D deformation where the rift velocity is oriented perpendicular to the plate boundary. Here we quantify the validity of this assumption by analysing the kinematics of major continent-scale rift systems in a global plate tectonic reconstruction from the onset of Pangea breakup until the present day. We evaluate rift obliquity by joint examination of relative extension velocity and local rift trend using the script-based plate reconstruction software pyGPlates. Our results show that the global mean rift obliquity since 230 Ma amounts to 34 degrees with a standard deviation of 24 degrees, using the convention that the angle of obliquity is spanned by extension direction and rift trend normal. We find that more than similar to 70 % of all rift segments exceeded an obliquity of 20 degrees demonstrating that oblique rifting should be considered the rule, not the exception. In many cases, rift obliquity and extension velocity increase during rift evolution (e.g. Australia-Antarctica, Gulf of California, South Atlantic, India-Antarctica), which suggests an underlying geodynamic correlation via obliquity-dependent rift strength. Oblique rifting produces 3-D stress and strain fields that cannot be accounted for in simplified 2-D plane strain analysis. We therefore highlight the importance of 3-D approaches in modelling, surveying, and interpretation of most rift segments on Earth where oblique rifting is the dominant mode of deformation.
High-latitude treeless ecosystems represent spatially highly heterogeneous landscapes with small net carbon fluxes and a short growing season. Reliable observations and process understanding are critical for projections of the carbon balance of the climate-sensitive tundra. Space-borne remote sensing is the only tool to obtain spatially continuous and temporally resolved information on vegetation greenness and activity in remote circumpolar areas. However, confounding effects from persistent clouds, low sun elevation angles, numerous lakes, widespread surface inundation, and the sparseness of the vegetation render it highly challenging. Here, we conduct an extensive analysis of the timing of peak vegetation productivity as shown by satellite observations of complementary indicators of plant greenness and photosynthesis. We choose to focus on productivity during the peak of the growing season, as it importantly affects the total annual carbon uptake. The suite of indicators are as follows: (1) MODIS-based vegetation indices (VIs) as proxies for the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that is absorbed (fPAR), (2) VIs combined with estimates of PAR as a proxy of the total absorbed radiation (APAR), (3) sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serving as a proxy for photosynthesis, (4) vegetation optical depth (VOD), indicative of total water content and (5) empirically upscaled modelled gross primary productivity (GPP). Averaged over the pan-Arctic we find a clear order of the annual peak as APAR <= GPP < SIF < VIs/VOD. SIF as an indicator of photosynthesis is maximised around the time of highest annual temperatures. The modelled GPP peaks at a similar time to APAR. The time lag of the annual peak between APAR and instantaneous SIF fluxes indicates that the SIF data do contain information on light-use efficiency of tundra vegetation, but further detailed studies are necessary to verify this. Delayed peak greenness compared to peak photosynthesis is consistently found across years and land-cover classes. A particularly late peak of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in regions with very small seasonality in greenness and a high amount of lakes probably originates from artefacts. Given the very short growing season in circumpolar areas, the average time difference in maximum annual photosynthetic activity and greenness or growth of 3 to 25 days (depending on the data sets chosen) is important and needs to be considered when using satellite observations as drivers in vegetation models.
Reading the sediment record in terms of past climates is challenging since linking climate change to the associated responses of sedimentary systems is not always straightforward. Here we analyze the erosional response of landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau to interglacial climate forcing. Using the theory of dynamical systems on Holocene time series of geochemical proxies, we derive a sedimentary response model that accurately simulates observed proxy variation in three lake records. The model suggests that millennial variations in sediment composition reflect a self-organization of landscapes in response to abrupt climate change between 11.6 and 11.9 ka BP. The self-organization is characterized by oscillations in sediment supply emerging from a feedback between physical and chemical erosion processes, with estimated response times between 3,000 to 18,000 years depending on catchment topography. The implications of our findings emphasize the need for landscape response models to decipher the paleoclimatic code in continental sediment records. Plain Language Summary Lake sediments are an important source of information on past climates. Reading the information is not always straightforward. Complex interactions in landscapes can affect the transmission of climatic signals to the sediment record. However, the exact nature of such complex interactions remains unknown. This study compares sediment deposits of three lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The deposits are continuous records of landscape responses to climate change during the last 12,000 years. We identified a mathematical model that accurately simulates changes in sediment composition at all sites. The model simulations suggest that an abrupt warming at the end of the last glacial period destabilized the landscapes. This caused fluctuations in the transport of sediments, which persisted for several thousand years. Our findings present evidence for a long-lasting impact of abrupt climate change on fundamental Earth surface processes.
Evidence for Quaternary climate change in East Africa has been derived from outcrops on land and lake cores and from marine dust, leaf wax, and pollen records. These data have previously been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on hominin evolution, but correlations have proved to be difficult, given poor data continuity and the great distances between marine cores and terrestrial basins where fossil evidence is located. Here, we present continental coring evidence for progressive aridification since about 575 thousand years before present (ka), based on Lake Magadi (Kenya) sediments. This long-term drying trend was interrupted by many wet-dry cycles, with the greatest variability developing during times of high eccentricity-modulated precession. Intense aridification apparent in the Magadi record took place between 525 and 400 ka, with relatively persistent arid conditions after 350 ka and through to the present. Arid conditions in the Magadi Basin coincide with the Mid-Brunhes Event and overlap with mammalian extinctions in the South Kenya Rift between 500 and 400 ka. The 525 to 400 ka arid phase developed in the South Kenya Rift between the period when the last Acheulean tools are reported (at about 500 ka) and before the appearance of Middle Stone Age artifacts (by about 320 ka). Our data suggest that increasing Middle- to Late-Pleistocene aridification and environmental variability may have been drivers in the physical and cultural evolution of Homo sapiens in East Africa.
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.
Alkaline igneous rocks are relatively rare in settings of tectonic convergence and little is known about their petrogenesis in these settings. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the formation of alkaline igneous rocks by an investigation of the Tezhsar volcano-intrusive alkaline ring complex (TAC) in the Armenian Lesser Caucasus, which is located between the converging Eurasian and Arabian plates. We present new petrological, geochemical and Sr Nd isotope data for the TAC to constrain magma genesis and magma source characteristics. Moreover, we provide a new Ar-40/Ar-39 age of 41.0 +/- 0.5 Ma on amphibole from a nepheline syenite that is integrated into the regional context of ongoing regional convergence and widespread magmatism. The TAC is spatially concentric and measures similar to 10 km in diameter representing the relatively shallow plumbing system of a major stratovolcano juxtaposed by ring faulting with its extrusive products. The plutonic units comprise syenites and nepheline syenites, whereas the extrusive units are dominated by trachytic-phonolitic rocks. The characteristic feature of the TAC is the development of pseudomorphs after leucite in all types of the volcanic, subvolcanic and intrusive alkaline rocks. Whole-rock major element data show a metaluminous (Alkalinity Index = 0-0.1), alkalic and silica-undersaturated (Feldspathoid Silica-Saturation Index <0) character of the TAC. The general trace element enrichment and strong fractionation of REEs (La-N/Yb-N up to 70) indicate a relatively enriched magma source and small degrees of partial melting. All TAC rocks show a negative Nb Ta anomalies typical of subduction zone settings. The initial 87Sr/85Sr ratios (0.704-0.705) and positive sNd values (+3 to +5) indicate an isotopically depleted upper mantle and lack of significant crustal influence, which in turn suggests the TAC magma has formed via differentiation from lithospheric mantle melts.
Whistler mode exohiss are the structureless hiss waves observed outside the plasma pause with featured equatorward Poynting flux. An event of the amplification of exohiss as well as chorus waves was recorded by Van Allen Probes during the recovery phase of a weak geomagnetic storm. Amplitudes of both types of the waves showed a significant increase at the regions of electron density enhancements. It is found that the electrons resonant with exohiss and chorus showed moderate pitch angle anisotropies. The ratio of the number of electrons resonating with exohiss to total electron number presented in-phase correlation with density variations, which suggests that exohiss can be amplified due to electron density enhancement in terms of cyclotron instability. The calculation of linear growth rates further supports above conclusion. We suggest that exohiss waves have potential to become more significant due to the background plasma fluctuation.
The equatorial electrojet occasionally reverses during morning and afternoon hours, leading to periods of westward current in the ionospheric E region that are known as counter electrojet (CEJ) events. We present the first analysis of CEJ climatology and CEJ dependence on solar flux and lunar phase for the Brazilian sector, based on an extensive ground-based data set for the years 2008 to 2017 from the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (1.2 degrees S, 48.5 degrees W), and we compare it to the results found for Huancayo (12.0 degrees S, 75.3 degrees W) observatory in the Peruvian sector. We found a predominance of morning CEJ events for both sectors. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate in the Brazilian sector is twice as high as in the Peruvian sector. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate strongly depends on season, with maximum rates occurring during the northern-hemisphere summer for the Brazilian sector and during the northern-hemisphere winter for the Peruvian sector. Significant discrepancies between the two sectors are also found for morning CEJ rates during the northern-hemisphere summer. These longitudinal differences are in agreement with a CEJ climatology derived from contemporary Swarm satellite data and can be attributed in part to the well-known longitudinal wave-4 structure in the background equatorial electrojet strength that results from nonmigrating solar tides and stationary planetary waves. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model show that the remaining longitudinal variability in CEJ during northern summer can be explained by the effect of migrating tides in the presence of the varying geomagnetic field in the South Atlantic Anomaly.
TDS-1 GNSS Reflectometry
(2018)
This study presents the development and a systematic evaluation study of GNSS reflectometry wind speeds. After establishing a wind speed retrieval algorithm, UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) derived winds, from May 2015 to July 2017, are compared to the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). ERA-Interim wind fields of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and in situ observation from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific are taken as reference. One-year averaged TDS-1 global winds demonstrate small differences with ECMWF in a majority of areas as well as discuss under- and overestimations. The pioneering TDS-1 winds demonstrate a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias of 2.77 and -0.33 m/s, which are comparable to the RMSE and bias derived by ASCAT winds, as large as 2.31 and 0.25 m/s, respectively. Using buoys measurements as reference, RMSE and bias of 2.23 and -0.03 m/s for TDS-1 as well as 1.40 and -0.68 m/s for ASCAT are obtained. Utilizing rain microwave-infrared estimates of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, rain-affected observation of both ASCAT and TDS-1 are collected and evaluated. Although ASCAT winds show a significant performance degradation resulting in an RMSE and bias of 3.16 and 1.03 m/s, respectively, during rain condition, TDS-1 shows a more reliable performance with an RMSE and bias of 2.94 and -0.21 m/s, respectively, which indicates the promising capability of GNSS forward scattering for wind retrievals during rain. A decrease in TDS-1-derived bistatic radar cross sections during rain events, at weak winds, is also demonstrated.
Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
(2018)
Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
The effects of climate and topography on soil physico-chemical and microbial parameters were studied along an extensive latitudinal climate gradient in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile (26 degrees-38 degrees S). The study sites encompass arid (Pan de Azucar), semiarid (Santa Gracia), mediterranean (La Campana) and humid (Nahuelbuta) climates and vegetation, ranging from arid desert, dominated by biological soil crusts (biocrusts), semiarid shrubland and mediterranean sclerophyllous forest, where biocrusts are present but do have a seasonal pattern to temperate-mixed forest, where biocrusts only occur as an early pioneering development stage after disturbance. All soils originate from granitic parent materials and show very strong differences in pedogenesis intensity and soil depth. Most of the investigated physical, chemical and microbiological soil properties showed distinct trends along the climate gradient. Further, abrupt changes between the arid northernmost study site and the other semi-arid to humid sites can be shown, which indicate non-linearity and thresholds along the climate gradient. Clay and total organic carbon contents (TOC) as well as Ah horizons and solum depths increased from arid to humid climates, whereas bulk density (BD), pH values and base saturation (BS) decreased. These properties demonstrate the accumulation of organic matter, clay formation and element leaching as key-pedogenic processes with increasing humidity. However, the soils in the northern arid climate do not follow this overall latitudinal trend, because texture and BD are largely controlled by aeolian input of dust and sea salts spray followed by the formation of secondary evaporate minerals. Total soil DNA concentrations and TOC increased from arid to humid sites, while areal coverage by biocrusts exhibited an opposite trend. Relative bacterial and archaeal abundances were lower in the arid site, but for the other sites the local variability exceeds the variability along the climate gradient. Differences in soil properties between topographic positions were most pronounced at the study sites with the mediterranean and humid climate, whereas microbial abundances were independent on topography across all study sites. In general, the regional climate is the strongest controlling factor for pedogenesis and microbial parameters in soils developed from the same parent material. Topographic position along individual slopes of limited length augmented this effect only under humid conditions, where water erosion likely relocated particles and elements downward. The change from alkaline to neutral soil pH between the arid and the semi-arid site coincided with qualitative differences in soil formation as well as microbial habitats. This also reflects non-linear relationships of pedogenic and microbial processes in soils depending on climate with a sharp threshold between arid and semi-arid conditions. Therefore, the soils on the transition between arid and semi-arid conditions are especially sensitive and may be well used as indicators of long and medium-term climate changes. Concluding, the unique latitudinal precipitation gradient in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile is predestined to investigate the effects of the main soil forming factor - climate - on pedogenic processes.
From north to south, denudation rates from cosmogenic nuclides are similar to 10 t km(-2) yr(-1) at the arid Pan de Aziicar site, similar to 20 t km(2) yr(-1) at the semi-arid site of Santa Gracia, -60 t km(-2) yr(-1) at the Mediterranean climate site of La Campana, and similar to 30 t km(-2) yr(-1) at the humid site of Nahuelbuta. A and B horizons increase in thickness and elemental depletion or enrichment increases from north (similar to 26 degrees S) to south (similar to 38 degrees S) in these horizons. Differences in the degree of chemical weathering, quantified by the chemical depletion fraction (CDF), are significant only between the arid and sparsely vegetated site and the other three sites. Differences in the CDF between the sites, and elemental depletion within the sites are sometimes smaller than the variations induced by the bedrock heterogeneity. Microbial abundances (bacteria and archaea) in saprolite substantially increase from the arid to the semi-arid sites. With this study, we provide a comprehensive dataset characterizing the Critical Zone geochemistry in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera. This dataset confirms climatic controls on weathering and denudation rates and provides prerequisites to quantify the role of biota in future studies.
Flood damage estimation is a core task in flood risk assessments and requires reliable flood loss models. Identifying the driving factors of flood loss at residential buildings and gaining insight into their relations is important to improve our understanding of flood damage processes. For that purpose, we learn probabilistic graphical models, which capture and illustrate (in-)dependencies between the considered variables. The models are learned based on postevent surveys with flood-affected residents after six flood events, which occurred in Germany between 2002 and 2013. Besides the sustained building damage, the survey data contain information about flooding parameters, early warning and emergency measures, property-level mitigation measures and preparedness, socioeconomic characteristics of the household, and building characteristics. The analysis considers the entire data set with a total of 4,468 cases as well as subsets of the data set partitioned into single flood events and flood types: river floods, levee breaches, surface water flooding, and groundwater floods, to reveal differences in the damaging processes. The learned networks suggest that the flood loss ratio of residential buildings is directly influenced by hydrological and hydraulic aspects as well as by building characteristics and property-level mitigation measures. The study demonstrates also that for different flood events and process types the building damage is influenced by varying factors. This suggests that flood damage models need to be capable of reproducing these differences for spatial and temporal model transfers.
Modelers can improve a model by addressing the causes for the model errors (data errors and structural errors). This leads to implementing model enhancements (MEs), for example, meteorological data based on more monitoring stations, improved calibration data, and/or modifications in process formulations. However, deciding on which MEs to implement remains a matter of expert knowledge. After implementing multiple MEs, any improvement in model performance is not easily attributed, especially when considering different objectives or aspects of this improvement (e.g., better dynamics vs. reduced bias). We present an approach for comparing the effect of multiple MEs based on real observations and considering multiple objectives (MMEMO). A stepwise selection approach and structured plots help to address the multidimensionality of the problem. Tailored analyses allow a differentiated view on the effect of MEs and their interactions. MMEMO is applied to a case study employing the mesoscale hydro-sedimentological model WASA-SED for the Mediterranean-mountainous Isabena catchment, northeast Spain. The investigated seven MEs show diverse effects: some MEs (e.g., rainfall data) cause improvements for most objectives, while other MEs (e.g., land use data) only affect a few objectives or even decrease model performance. Interaction of MEs was observed for roughly half of the MEs, confirming the need to address them in the analysis. Calibration and increasing the temporal resolution showed by far stronger impact than any of the other MEs. The proposed framework can be adopted in other studies to analyze the effect of MEs and, thus, facilitate the identification and implementation of the most promising MEs for comparable cases.
Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth / diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth / diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
For the first time, a rain signature in Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations is demonstrated. Based on the argument that the forward quasi-specular scattering relies upon surface gravity waves with lengths larger than several wavelengths of the reflected signal, a commonly made conclusion is that the scatterometric GNSS-R measurements are not sensitive to the surface small-scale roughness generated by raindrops impinging on the ocean surface. On the contrary, this study presents an evidence that the bistatic radar cross section sigma(0) derived from TechDemoSat-1 data is reduced due to rain at weak winds, lower than approximate to 6 m/s. The decrease is as large as approximate to 0.7 dB at the wind speed of 3 m/s due to a precipitation of 0-2 mm/hr. The simulations based on the recently published scattering theory provide a plausible explanation for this phenomenon which potentially enables the GNSS-R technique to detect precipitation over oceans at low winds.
For several decades the Sant Llorenc de Montgai reservoir has experienced different problems that could affect the safety of the engineering structure. For this reason, several corrective actions have been taken over the years. Here, we present a study involving complementary geophysical methods including electrical resistivity tomography, seismic refraction tomography and frequency-domain electromagnetic surveys. The analysis of the inverted electrical resistivity tomography cross-sections combined with the seismic refraction results and land subsidence monitoring data show the likely mechanism of abnormal seepage. The areas where mortar injections were applied as a corrective measure are also clearly delineated. In addition, the evolution of the state of the embankment has been established from two successive electrical resistivity tomography surveys in the last two decades. The results show areas where corrective mortar injections have been effective, while in other areas new abnormal seepage has been detected. The lithological heterogeneity of the bedrock, especially the dissolution of gypsum-rich rocks, induced subsidence effects and caused abnormal seepage in different areas along the embankment. Our results indicate how corrective solutions can be optimized to reduce the cost of corrective engineering interventions.
The phi(ev) is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation P-cum ranging from less than 5mm to more than 80 mm. Because of the high uncertainty of phi(ev) associated with the hydrograph separation method, phi(ev) is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on (theta) over bar (ini): during dry conditions phi(ev) is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of (theta) over bar (ini) = 34 vol % phi(ev) can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of phi(ev) with P-cum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results.
The effect of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall on surface water delta D values in the central Himalaya
(2018)
Stable isotope proxy records, such as speleothems, plant-wax biomarker records, and ice cores, are suitable archives for the reconstruction of regional palaeohydrologic conditions. But the interpretation of these records in the tropics, especially in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) domain, is difficult due to differing moisture and water sources: precipitation from the ISM and Winter Westerlies, as well as snow- and glacial meltwater. In this study, we use interannual differences in ISM strength (2011-2012) to understand the stable isotopic composition of surface water in the Arun River catchment in eastern Nepal. We sampled main stem and tributary water (n = 204) for stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope analysis in the postmonsoon phase of two subsequent years with significantly distinct ISM intensities. In addition to the 2011/2012 sampling campaigns, we collected a 12-month time series of main stem waters (2012/2013, n = 105) in order to better quantify seasonal effects on the variability of surface water delta O-18/delta D. Furthermore, remotely sensed satellite data of rainfall, snow cover, glacial coverage, and evapotranspiration was evaluated. The comparison of datasets from both years revealed that surface waters of the main stem Arun and its tributaries were D-enriched by similar to 15 parts per thousand when ISM rainfall decreased by 20%. This strong response emphasizes the importance of the ISM for surface water run-off in the central Himalaya. However, further spatio-temporal analysis of remote sensing data in combination with stream water d-excess revealed that most high-altitude tributaries and the Tibetan part of the Arun receive high portions of glacial melt water and likely Winter Westerly Disturbances precipitation. We make the following two implications: First, palaeohydrologic archives found in high-altitude tributaries and on the southern Tibetan Plateau record a mixture of past precipitation delta D values and variable amounts of additional water sources. Second, surface water isotope ratios of lower elevated tributaries strongly reflect the isotopic composition of ISM rainfall implying a suitable region for the analysis of potential delta D value proxy records.
The lateral and vertical temperature distribution in Oman is so far only poorly understood, particularly in the area between Muscat and the Batinah coast, which is the area of this study and which is composed of Cenozoic sediments developed as part of a foreland basin of the Makran Thrust Zone. Temperature logs (T-logs) were run and physical rock properties of the sediments were analyzed to understand the temperature distribution, thermal and hydraulic properties, and heat-transport processes within the sedimentary cover of northern Oman. An advective component is evident in the otherwise conduction-dominated geothermal play system, and is caused by both topography and density driven flow. Calculated temperature gradients (T-gradients) in two wells that represent conductive conditions are 18.7 and 19.5 °C km−1, corresponding to about 70–90 °C at 2000–3000 m depth. This indicates a geothermal potential that can be used for energy intensive applications like cooling or water desalinization. Sedimentation in the foreland basin was initiated after the obduction of the Semail Ophiolite in the late Campanian, and reflects the complex history of alternating periods of transgressive and regressive sequences with erosion of the Oman Mountains. Thermal and hydraulic parameters were analyzed of the basin’s heterogeneous clastic and carbonate sedimentary sequence. Surface heat-flow values of 46.4 and 47.9 mW m−2 were calculated from the T-logs and calculated thermal conductivity values in two wells. The results of this study serve as a starting point for assessing different geothermal applications that may be suitable for northern Oman.
Coastal ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by climate change. As summer rainfall frequency and intensity are projected to increase in the future, more organic matter, nutrients and sediment could bemobilized and transported into the coastal nearshore zones. However, knowledge of current processes and future changes is limited. We investigated streamflow dynamics and the impacts of summer rainfall on lateral fluxes in a small coastal catchment on Herschel Island in the western Canadian Arctic. For the summer monitoring periods of 2014-2016, mean dissolved organic matter flux over 17 days amounted to 82.7 +/- 30.7 kg km(-2) and mean total dissolved solids flux to 5252 +/- 1224 kg km(-2). Flux of suspended sediment was 7245 kg km(-2) in 2015, and 369 kg km(-2) in 2016. We found that 2.0% of suspended sediment was composed of particulate organic carbon. Data and hysteresis analysis suggest a limited supply of sediments; their interannual variability is most likely caused by short-lived localized disturbances. In contrast, our results imply that dissolved organic carbon is widely available throughout the catchment and exhibits positive linear relationship with runoff. We hypothesize that increased projected rainfall in the future will result in a similar increase of dissolved organic carbon fluxes.
Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data
(2018)
Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.
The Renewable energy power generation capacity has been rapidly increasing in China recently. Meanwhile, the contradiction between power supply and demand is becoming increasingly more prominent due to the intermittence of renewable energies. On the other hand, on the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China needs immediate attention. Power-to-Gas (PtG), a chemical energy storage technology, can convert surplus electricity into combustible gases. Subsurface energy storage can meet the requirements of long term storage with its large capacity. This paper provides a discussion of the entire PtG energy storage technology process and the current research progress. Based on the comparative study of different geological storage schemes for synthetic methane, their respective research progress and limitations are noted. In addition, a full investigation of the distribution and implementation of global PtG and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects is performed. Subsequently, the opportunities and challenges of the development of this technology in China are discussed based on techno-economic and ecological effects analysis. While PtG is expected to be a revolutionary technology that will replace traditional power systems, the main issues of site selection, energy efficiency and the economy still need to be adequately addressed. Additionally, based on the comprehensive discussion of the results of the analysis, power-to-gas and subsurface energy storage implementation strategies, as well as outlook in China are presented.
Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) concentrations in fluvial sediment, from which denudation rates are commonly inferred, can be affected by hillslope processes. TCN concentrations in gravel and sand may differ if localized, deep-excavation processes (e.g. landslides, debris flows) affect the contributing catchment, whereas the TCN concentrations of sand and gravel tend to be more similar when diffusional processes like soil creep and sheetwash are dominant. To date, however, no study has systematically compared TCN concentrations in different detrital grain-size fractions with a detailed inventory of hillslope processes from the entire catchment. Here we compare concentrations of the TCN Be-10 in 20 detrital sand samples from the Quebrada del Toro (southern Central Andes, Argentina) to a hillslope-process inventory from each contributing catchment. Our comparison reveals a shift from low-slope gullying and scree production in slowly denuding, low-slope areas to steep-slope gullying and landsliding in fast-denuding, steep areas. To investigate whether the nature of hillslope processes (locally excavating or more uniformly denuding) may be reflected in a comparison of the Be-10 concentrations of sand and gravel, we define the normalized sand-gravel index (NSGI) as the Be-10-concentration difference between sand and gravel divided by their summed concentrations. We find a positive, linear relationship between the NSGI and median slope, such that our NSGI values broadly reflect the shift in hillslope processes from low-slope gullying and scree production to steep-slope gullying and landsliding. Higher NSGI values characterize regions affected by steep-slope gullying or landsliding. We relate the large scatter in the relationship, which is exhibited particularly in low-slope areas, to reduced hillslope-channel connectivity and associated transient sediment storage within those catchments. While high NSGI values in well-connected catchments are a reliable signal of deep-excavation processes, hillslope excavation processes may not be reliably recorded by NSGI values where sediment experiences transient storage. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volcanic activities triggered or inhibited by resonance of volcanic edifices to large earthquakes
(2018)
The existence of a causal link between large earthquakes and volcanic unrest is widely accepted. Recent observations have also revealed counterintuitive negative responses of volcanoes to large earthquakes, including decreased gas emissions and subsidence in volcanic areas. In order to explore the mechanisms that could simultaneously explain both the positive and negative responses of volcanic activity to earthquakes, we here focus on the role played by topography. In the laboratory, we shook a volcanic edifice analogue, made of gel, previously injected with a buoyant fluid. We find that shaking triggers rapid migration of the buoyant fluid upward, downward, or laterally, depending on the fluid’s buoyancy and storage depth; bubbly fluids stored at shallow depth ascend, while low-buoyancy fluids descend or migrate laterally. The migration of fluids induced by shaking is two orders of magnitude faster than without shaking. Downward or lateral fluid migration may decrease volcanic gas emissions and cause subsidence as a negative response, while upward migration is consistent both with an increase in volcanic activity and immediate unrest (deformation and seismicity) after large earthquakes. The fluid migration is more efficient when the oscillation frequency is close to the resonance frequency of the edifice. The resonance frequency for a 30-km-wide volcanic mountain range, such as those where subsidence was observed, is ∼0.07 Hz. Only large earthquakes are able to cause oscillation at such low frequencies.
Mountain rivers respond to strong earthquakes by rapidly aggrading to accommodate excess sediment delivered by co-seismic landslides. Detailed sediment budgets indicate that rivers need several years to decades to recover from seismic disturbances, depending on how recovery is defined. We examine three principal proxies of river recovery after earthquake-induced sediment pulses around Pokhara, Nepal's second largest city. Freshly exhumed cohorts of floodplain trees in growth position indicate rapid and pulsed sedimentation that formed a fan covering 150 km2 in a Lesser Himalayan basin with tens of metres of debris between the 11th and 15th centuries AD. Radiocarbon dates of buried trees are consistent with those of nearby valley deposits linked to major medieval earthquakes, such that we can estimate average rates of re-incision since. We combine high-resolution digital elevation data, geodetic field surveys, aerial photos, and dated tree trunks to reconstruct geomorphic marker surfaces. The volumes of sediment relative to these surfaces require average net sediment yields of up to 4200 t km–2 yr–1 for the 650 years since the last inferred earthquake-triggered sediment pulse. The lithological composition of channel bedload differs from that of local bedrock, confirming that rivers are still mostly evacuating medieval valley fills, locally incising at rates of up to 0.2 m yr–1. Pronounced knickpoints and epigenetic gorges at tributary junctions further illustrate the protracted fluvial response; only the distal portions of the earthquake-derived sediment wedges have been cut to near their base. Our results challenge the notion that mountain rivers recover speedily from earthquakes within years to decades. The valley fills around Pokhara show that even highly erosive Himalayan rivers may need more than several centuries to adjust to catastrophic perturbations. Our results motivate some rethinking of post-seismic hazard appraisals and infrastructural planning in active mountain regions.
Small repeating earthquakes are thought to represent rupture of isolated asperities loaded by surrounding creep. The observed scaling between recurrence interval and seismic moment, T-r approximate to M-1/6, contrasts with expectation assuming constant stress drop and no aseismic slip (T-r approximate to M-1/3). Here we demonstrate that simple crack models of velocity-weakening asperities in a velocity-strengthening fault predict the M-1/6 scaling; however, the mechanism depends on asperity radius, R. For small asperities ( , where R is the nucleation radius) numerical simulations with rate-state friction show interseismic creep penetrating inward from the edge, and earthquakes nucleate in the center and rupture the entire asperity. Creep penetration accounts for approximate to 25% of the slip budget, the nucleation phase takes up a larger fraction of slip. Stress drop increases with increasing R; the lack of self-similarity being due to the finite nucleation dimension. For 2R<R less than or similar to 6Rsimulations exhibit simple cycles with ruptures nucleating from the edge. Asperities with R6R exhibit complex cycles of partial and full ruptures. Here T-r is explained by an energy criterion: full rupture requires that the energy release rate everywhere on the asperity at least equals the fracture energy, leading to the scaling T-r approximate to M-1/6. Remarkably, in spite of the variability in behavior with source dimension, the scaling of T-r with stress drop , nucleation length and creep rate v(pl) is the same across all regimes: Tr approximate to vpl. This supports the use of repeating earthquakes as creepmeters and provides a physical interpretation for the scaling observed in nature. Plain Language Summary While most earthquake sequences have complex temporal patterns, some small earthquakes are quite predictable: they repeat periodically. The time between consecutive events (recurrence interval) grows with earthquake size: as intuitive, it takes longer to accumulate the mechanical energy for large earthquakes. However, the scaling between the recurrence interval and earthquake energy (seismic moment) is not what simple physical considerations predict. It is often assumed that faults are locked between events and seismic slip must therefore keep up with long-term plate motion. This leads to the scaling: Tr approximate to M01/3, but the observed scaling is . In fact, faults are not fully locked between earthquakes: they can slip slowly, or release part of the energy in smaller quakes between the larger ones. Here we use numerical simulations, and ideas from fracture mechanics, to understand what controls the time between repeating quakes. The main results are (1) analytical expressions of the recurrence interval as a function of earthquake size, predicting the observed scaling; (2) explanation of the differences between the cycle of small and large earthquakes (fraction of slow slip, direction of rupture propagation, and the occurrence of smaller quakes between large ones) and the quantities determining these transitions.
Prior to the development of the modern Amazonian drainage network during the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene, large areas of western Amazonia may have been occupied by an extensive lacustrine and wetland environment known as the Pebas and Acre systems. These depositional systems are thought to have formed in response to foreland subsidence east of the uplifting Andes. Based on the occurrence at a present-day elevation of 1600 m of fossil pearly freshwater mussels of the genus Anodontites (indet. species) in intermontane Chota Basin of northern Ecuador (the westernmost South American fossil record for this genus), we discuss their potential implications for understanding of westernmost limit of the Miocene wetland ecosystem and consequently a later timing for the regional uplift of the Eastern Cordillera.
The correct estimation of site-specific attenuation is crucial for the assessment of seismic hazard. Downhole instruments provide in this context valuable information to constrain attenuation directly from data. In this study, we apply an interferometric approach to this problem by deconvolving seismic motions recorded at depth with those recorded at the surface. In doing so, incident and surface-reflected waves can be separated. We apply this technique not only to earthquake data but also to recordings of ambient vibrations. We compute the transfer function between incident and surface-reflected waves in order to infer frequency-dependent quality factors for S waves. The method is applied to a 87m deep borehole sensor and a colocated surface instrument situated at a hard-rock site in West Bohemia/Vogtland, Germany. We show that the described method provides comparable attenuation estimates using either earthquake data or ambient noise for frequencies between 5 and 15 Hz. Moreover, a single hour of noise recordings seems to be sufficient to yield stable deconvolution traces and quality factors, thus, offering a fast and easy way to derive attenuation estimates from borehole recordings even in low- to mid-seismicity regions.
We study the rupture processes of Iquique earthquake 8.1 (2014/04/01) and its largest aftershock 7.7 (2014/04/03) that ruptured the North Chile subduction zone. High-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings and strong motion data are used to reconstruct the evolution of the slip amplitude, rise time and rupture time of both earthquakes. A two-step inversion scheme is assumed, by first building prior models for both earthquakes from the inversion of the estimated static displacements and then, kinematic inversions in the frequency domain are carried out taken into account this prior information. The preferred model for the mainshock exhibits a seismic moment of 1.73 × 1021 Nm ( 8.1) and maximum slip of ∼9 m, while the aftershock model has a seismic moment of 3.88 × 1020 ( 7.7) and a maximum slip of ∼3 m. For both earthquakes, the final slip distributions show two asperities (a shallow one and a deep one) separated by an area with significant slip deficit. This suggests a segmentation along-dip which might be related to a change of the dipping angle of the subducting slab inferred from gravimetric data. Along-strike, the areas where the seismic ruptures stopped seem to be well correlated with geological features observed from geophysical information (high-resolution bathymetry, gravimetry and coupling maps) that are representative of the long-term segmentation of the subduction margin. Considering the spatially limited portions that were broken by these two earthquakes, our results support the idea that the seismic gap is not filled yet.
Linking deep seismic profiles with regional-scale gravity inversion is a powerful tool to deduce the architecture of rifted margins and their structural evolution. Here we map upper and lower crustal thicknesses of the northern South China Sea (SCS) margin in order to investigate the occurrence of depth-dependent crustal extension from the proximal to the distal margin. By comparing upper and lower crustal stretching factors, we find that the northern margin of the SCS is segmented in three parts: (1) sedimentary basins where upper crust is stretched more than lower crust, (2) distal margin where lower crust is stretched more than upper crust, (3) mostly proximal margin regions where the two layers have similar stretching factors. Our results suggest that sedimentary basins and distal margin prominently feature depth-dependent extension, however accommodated by different processes. While differential thinning within sedimentary basins appears to be governed by lateral pressure variations inducing lower crustal flow, we suggest the distal margin to be affected by a combination of mantle flow-induced lower crustal shearing and sequential fault activity during crustal hyper-extension.
The extent of continental rifts and subduction zones through deep geological time provides insights into the mechanisms behind supercontinent cycles and the long term evolution of the mantle. However, previous compilations have stopped short of mapping the locations of rifts and subduction zones continuously since the Neoproterozoic and within a self-consistent plate kinematic framework. Using recently published plate models with continuously closing boundaries for the Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic, we estimate how rift and peri-continental subduction length vary from 1 Ga to present and test hypotheses pertaining to the supercontinent cycle and supercontinent breakup. We extract measures of continental perimeter-to-area ratio as a proxy for the existence of a supercontinent, where during times of supercontinent existence the perimeter-to-area ratio should be low, and during assembly and dispersal it should be high. The amalgamation of Gondwana is clearly represented by changes in the length of peri-continental subduction and the breakup of Rodinia and Pangea by changes in rift lengths. The assembly of Pangea is not clearly defined using plate boundary lengths, likely because its formation resulted from the collision of only two large continents. Instead the assembly of Gondwana (ca. 520 Ma) marks the most prominent change in arc length and perimeter-to-area ratio during the last billion years suggesting that Gondwana during the Early Palaeozoic could explicitly be considered part of a Phanerozoic supercontinent. Consequently, the traditional understanding of the supercontinent cycle, in terms of supercontinent existence for short periods of time before dispersal and re-accretion, may be inadequate to fully describe the cycle. Instead, either a two-stage supercontinent cycle could be a more appropriate concept, or alternatively the time period of 1 to 0 Ga has to be considered as being dominated by supercontinent existence, with brief periods of dispersal and amalgamation.
We present the results of a consistency check performed over the flatfile extracted from the engineering strong motion (ESM) database. The flatfile includes 23,014 recordings from 2179 earthquakes in the magnitude range from 3.5 to 7.8 that occurred since the 1970s in Europe and Middle East, as presented in the companion article by Lanzano et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2018a). The consistency check is developed by analyzing different residual distributions obtained from ad-hoc ground motion prediction equations for the absolute spectral acceleration (SA), displacement and Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS). Only recordings from earthquakes shallower than 40 km are considered in the analysis. The between-event, between-station and event-and-station corrected residuals are computed by applying a mixed-effect regression. We identified those earthquakes, stations, and recordings showing the largest deviations from the GMPE median predictions, and also evaluated the statistical uncertainty on the median model to get insights on the applicable magnitude–distance ranges and the usable period (or frequency) range. We observed that robust median predictions are obtained up to 8 s for SA and up to 20 Hz for FAS, although median predictions for Mw ≥ 7 show significantly larger uncertainties with ‘bumps’ starting above 5 s for SA and below 0.3 Hz for FAS. The between-station variance dominates over the other residual variances, and the dependence of the between-station residuals on logarithm of Vs30 is well-described by a piece-wise linear function with period-dependent slopes and hinge velocity around 580 m/s. Finally, we compared the between-event residuals obtained by considering two different sources of moment magnitude. The results show that, at long periods, the between-event terms from the two regressions have a weak correlation and the overall between-event variability is dissimilar, highlighting the importance of magnitude source in the regression results.
X-ray emission and X-ray Raman scattering spectroscopy are powerful tools to investigate the local electronic and atomic structure of high and low Z elements in situ. Notably, these methods can be applied for in situ spectroscopy at high pressure and high temperature using resistively or laser-heated diamond anvil cells in order to achieve thermodynamic conditions which appear in the Earth's interior. We present a setup for combined X-ray emission and X-ray Raman scattering studies at beamline P01 of PETRA III using a portable wavelength-dispersive von Hamos spectrometer together with the permanently installed multiple-analyzer Johann-type spectrometer. The capabilities of this setup are exemplified by investigating the iron spin crossover of siderite FeCO3 up to 49.3 GPa by measuring the Fe M2,3-edge and the Fe Kβ1,3 emission line simultaneously. With this setup, the Fe valence-to-core emission can be detected together with the Kβ1,3 emission line providing complementary information on the sample's electronic structure. By implementing a laser-heating device, we demonstrate the strength of using a von Hamos type spectrometer for spin state mapping at extreme conditions. Finally, we give different examples of low Z elements' absorption edges relevant for application in geoscience that are accessible with the Johann-type XRS spectrometer. With this setup new insights into the spin transition and compression mechanisms of Earth's mantle materials can be obtained of importance for comprehension of the macroscopic physical and chemical properties of the Earth's interior.
The Cretaceous units exposed in the northwestern segment of the Colombian Andes preserve the record of extensional and compressional tectonics prior to the collision with Caribbean oceanic terranes. We integrated field, stratigraphic, sedimentary provenance, whole rock geochemistry, Nd isotopes and U-Pb zircon data to understand the Cretaceous tectonostratigraphic and magmatic record of the Colombian Andes. The results suggest that several sedimentary successions including the Abejorral Fm. were deposited on top of the continental basement in an Early Cretaceous backarc basin (150-100 Ma). Between 120 and 100 Ma, the appearance of basaltic and andesitic magmatism (similar to 115-100 Ma), basin deepening, and seafloor spreading were the result of advanced stages of backarc extension. A change to compressional tectonics took place during the Late Cretaceous (100-80 Ma). During this compressional phase, the extended blocks were reincorporated into the margin, closing the former Early Cretaceous backarc basin. Subsequently, a Late Cretaceous volcanic arc was built on the continental margin: as a result, the volcanic rocks of the Quebradagrande Complex were unconformably deposited on top of the faulted and folded rocks of the Abejorral Fm. Between the Late Cretaceous and the Paleocene (80-60 Ma), an arc-continent collision between the Caribbean oceanic plateau and the South-American continental margin deformed the rocks of the Quebradagrande Complex and shut-down the active volcanic arc. Our results suggest an Early Cretaceous extensional event followed by compressional tectonics prior to the collision with the Caribbean oceanic plateau. (C) 2019 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Urban areas play an unprecedented role in potentially mitigating climate change and supporting sustainable development. In light of the rapid urbanisation in many parts on the globe, it is crucial to understand the relationship between settlement size and CO2 emission efficiency of cities. Recent literature on urban scaling properties of emissions as a function of population size has led to contradictory results and more importantly, lacked an in-depth investigation of the essential factors and causes explaining such scaling properties. Therefore, in analogy to the well-established Kaya Identity, we develop a relation combining the involved exponents. We demonstrate that application of this Urban Kaya Relation will enable a comprehensive understanding about the intrinsic factors determining emission efficiencies in large cities by applying it to a global dataset of 61 cities. Contrary to traditional urban scaling studies which use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, we show that the Reduced Major Axis (RMA) is necessary when complex relations among scaling exponents are to be investigated. RMA is given by the geometric mean of the two OLS slopes obtained by interchanging the dependent and independent variable. We discuss the potential of the Urban Kaya Relation in mainstreaming local actions for climate change mitigation.
Earthquake localization is both a necessity within the field of seismology, and a prerequisite for further analysis such as source studies and hazard assessment. Traditional localization methods often rely on manually picked phases. We present an alternative approach using deep learning that once trained can predict hypocenter locations efficiently. In seismology, neural networks have typically been trained with either single-station records or based on features that have been extracted previously from the waveforms. We use three-component full-waveform records of multiple stations directly. This means no information is lost during preprocessing and preparation of the data does not require expert knowledge. The first convolutional layer of our deep convolutional neural network (CNN) becomes sensitive to features that characterize the waveforms it is trained on. We show that this layer can therefore additionally be used as an event detector. As a test case, we trained our CNN using more than 2000 earthquake swarm events from West Bohemia, recorded by nine local three-component stations. The CNN successfully located 908 validation events with standard deviations of 56.4 m in east-west, 123.8 m in north-south, and 136.3 m in vertical direction compared to a double-difference relocated reference catalog. The detector is sensitive to events with magnitudes down to M-L = -0.8 with 3.5% false positive detections.
Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71-0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Landslides arc common in high-latitude forest ecosystems that have developed on permafrost. The most vulnerable areas in the permafrost territories of Siberia occur on the south-facing slopes of northern rivers, where they arc observed on about 20% of the total area of river slopes. Landslide disturbances will likely increase with climate change especially due to increasing summer-autumn precipitation. These processes are the most destructive natural disturbance agent and lead to the complete removal of pre-slide forest ecosystems (vegetation cover and soil). To evaluate postsliding ecosystem succession, we undertook integrated ecological research at landslides of different age classes along the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River and the Kochechum River (Tura, Krasnoyarsk region, Russia). Just after the event (at the one-year-old site), we registered a drop in soil respiration, a threefold lower microbial respiration rate, and a fourfold smaller mineral soil carbon and nitrogen stock at bare soil (melkozem) plots at the middle location of the site as compared with the non affected control site. The recovery of disturbed areas began with the re-establishment of plant cover and the following accumulation of an organic soil layer. During the 35-year succession (L1972), the accumulated layer (0 layer)at the oldest site contained similar C- and N stocks to those found at the control sites. However, the mineral soil C- and N stocks and the microbial biomass even of the oldest landslide area- did not reach the value of these parameters in control plots. Later, the soil respiration level and the eco-physiological status of soil microbiota also recovered due to these changes. This study demonstrates that the recovery after landslides in permafrost forests takes several decades. In addition, the degradation of permafrost due to landslides clearly hinders the accumulation of soil organic matter in the mineral soil. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.v. All rights reserved.
Three spinel lherzolite xenoliths from Mt. Quincan (Queensland, northeastern Australia) were studied with special attention to their enclosed fluid inclusions. The xenoliths are deformed, have porphyroclastic textures and overall show very similar petrographic features. The only significant difference is manifested in the abundance of fluid inclusions in the samples, mostly in orthopyroxene porphyroclasts. Xenolith JMTQ11 is fluid inclusion-free, whereas xenolith JMTQ20 shows a high abundance of fluid inclusions (fluid inclusion-rich). Xenolith JMTQ45 represents a transitional state between the previous two, as it contains only a small amount of fluid inclusions (fluid inclusion-bearing). Previous studies revealed that these xenoliths and the entrapped fluid inclusions represent a former addition of a MORB-type fluid to the pre-existing lithosphere, resulting from asthenosphere upwelling. There is a progressive enrichment in LREE, Nb, Sr and Ti from the fluid inclusion-free xenolith through the fluid inclusion-bearing one to the fluid inclusion-rich lherzolite. This suggests an increase in the extent of the interaction between the fluid-rich melt and the lherzolite wallrock. In addition, the same interaction is considered to be responsible for the formation of pargasitic amphibole as well. The presence of fluid inclusions indicates fluid migration at mantle depth, and their association with exsolution lamellae in orthopyroxene suggests fluid entrapment following the continental rifting (thermal relaxation) during cooling. A series of analyses, including microthermometry coupled with Raman spectroscopy, FTIR hyperspectral imaging, and Focused Ion Beam-Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM) was carried out on the fluid inclusions. Based on the results, the entrapped high-density fluid is composed of 7589 mol% CO2, 918 mol% H2O, 0.11.7 mol% N-2 and <= 0.5 mol% H2S with dissolved trace elements (melt component). Our findings suggest that the metasomatic fluid phase could have been either a fluid/fluid-rich silicate melt released from the deeper asthenosphere, or a coexisting incipient fluid-rich silicate melt. Further cooling, possibly due to thermal relaxation and the upward migration of the fluid phase, caused the investigated lherzolites to reach pargasite stability conditions. We conclude that pargasite, even if only present in very limited modal proportions, can be a common phase at spinel lherzolite stability in the lithospheric upper mantle in continental rift back-arc settings. Studies of fluid inclusions indicate that significant CO2 release from the asthenosphere in a continental rifting environment is resulting from asthenosphere upwelling and its addition to the lithospheric mantle together with fluid-rich melt lherzolite interaction that leaves a CO2-rich fluid behind.
Rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provide a new source of information with high spatiotemporal resolution that overcomes the limitations of ground-based rainfall information worldwide. This study evaluates the performance of the Integrated multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run product over Brazil by means of multi-temporal and -spatial analyses. The assessment of the IMERG Final Run product is based on six statistics obtained for the period between January-December 2016 (daily, monthly, and annual basis). The analysis consisted of comparing the satellite-based estimates against a ground-based gridded rainfall product created using daily records from 4911 rain gauges distributed throughout Brazil. Overall, the results show that the IMERG product can effectively capture the spatial patterns of rainfall across Brazil. However, the IMERG product presents a slight tendency in overestimating the ground-based rainfall at all timescales. Furthermore, the performance of the satellite product varies throughout the region. The higher errors and biases are found in the North and Central-West regions, but the low density of rain gauges in those regions can be a source of large deviations between IMERG estimates and observations. A large underestimation of the IMERG data is evident along the coastal zone of the North-east region, probably due to the inability of the passive microwave and infrared sensors to detect warm-rain processes over land. This study shows that the IMERG product can be a good source of rainfall data to complement the ground precipitation measurements in most of Brazil, although some uncertainties are found and need to be further studied
During the last years Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) has evolved as a research focus across Europe. UGI can be understood as a multifunctional network of different urban green spaces and elements contributing to urban benefits. Urban agriculture has gained increasing research interest in this context. While a strong focus has been made on functions and benefits of small scale activities, the question is still open, whether these findings can be up-scaled and transferred to the farmland scale. Furthermore, multifunctionality of urban and peri-urban agriculture is rarely being considered in the landscape context. This research aims to address these gaps and harnesses the question if agricultural landscapes – which in many European metropolitan regions provide significant spatial potential – can contribute to UGI as multifunctional green spaces. This work considers multifunctionality qualitatively based on stakeholder opinion, using a participatory research approach. This study provides new insights in peri-urban farmland potentials for UGI development, resulting into a strategy framework. Furthermore, it reflects on the role of the stakeholder involvement for `multifunctionality planning´. It suggests that it helps to define meaningful bundles of intertwined functions that interact on different scales, helping to deal with non-linearity of multiple functions and to better manage them simultaneously.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.