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We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.
Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years
(2013)
I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least.
1. Introduction 2. Analysis of implementation of the Basel III in China 2.1 Implementation of capital adequacy rules 2.2 Implementation of leverage ratio rules 2.3 Implementation of liquidity management rules 3. Suggestions for further development of China’s banking industry 3.1 Promoting capital structure adjustment and broadening capital supplement channels 3.2 Transforming business models and developing intermediary and off-balance business 3.3 Increasing the intensity of risk management and refining its standards
The main morphological features of variations of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere before the earthquakes on March 11, 2011 (Japan) and October 23, 2011 (Turkey) are examined. The revealed features are compared to those of ionospheric TEC disturbances observed prior to several other large seismic events, as well as to those included in a list of the most frequently observed ionospheric TEC disturbances interpreted as possible ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. It is shown that, in the periods of preparation of the earthquakes under consideration, on March 8-11 and October 20-23, abnormal ionospheric TEC disturbances were observed as long-lived structures in a near-epicentral region and in the region magnetically conjugated to it.
The sidi Mohamed peridotites (Edough Massif, NE Algeria) - evidence for an upper mantle origin
(2013)
The Hercynian Edough massif is the easternmost crystalline massif of the Algerian coast. It consists of two tectonically superposed units composed of micaschists, gneisses, and peridotite. This study concentrates on the small and isolated Sidi Mohamed peridotite outcrop area (0.03 km(2)). The Sidi Mohamed peridotite is composed mainly of harzburgites (Mg-rich olivine and orthopyroxene as major minerals). The Ni (2051-2920 ppm), Cr (2368-5514 ppm) and MgO (similar to 28-35 wt.%) whole-rock composition and the relative depletion in Nb make these harzburgites comparable to depleted peridotites related to a subduction zone. We suggest that the Sidi Mohamed ultramafic body was derived directly from the upper mantle and tectonically incorporated into the gneiss units of the Edough metamorphic core complex in a subduction environment.
Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama
(2013)
Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones.
In 2009, 'Palestine' lodged a declaration recognizing the jurisdiction of the ICC under Article 12(3). However, in April 2012, the OTP determined that this declaration had not brought about the result, of providing for the ICC's jurisdiction, pending clarification from the political organs of the UN concerning the legal status of Palestine within the organization. On 29 November 2012, the General Assembly granted Palestine the status of a non-member observer state within the UN framework, thereby fulfilling the condition mentioned by the OTP in April 2012. It is against this background that the article considers the current legal effects of the 2009 Palestinian declaration. In particular, it addresses the issue of whether the declaration, when read in conjunction with the 29 November 2012 decision, possesses retroactive effect, i.e. whether it provides, as claimed, for the Court's temporal jurisdiction from 1 July 2002 onwards or rather starting only from 29 November 2012.
... the current status granted to Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly is that of 'observer', not as a 'Non-member State'. ... [T]his... informs the current legal status of Palestine for the interpretation and application of article 12 [Rome Statute]. ... The Office could in the future consider allegations of crimes committed in Palestine, should competent organs of the United Nations... resolve the legal issue relevant to an assessment of article 12. ... International Criminal Court, Office of the Prosecutor, 'Situation in Palestine', 3 April 2012
Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) is an important soil characteristic affecting soil water storage, runoff generation and erosion processes. In some areas where high-intensity rainfall coincides with low K-s values at shallow soil depths, frequent overland flow entails dense drainage networks. Consequently, linear structures such as flowlines alternate with inter-flowline areas. So far, investigations of the spatial variability of K-s mainly relied on isotropic covariance models which are unsuitable to reveal patterns resulting from linear structures. In the present study, we applied two sampling approaches so as to adequately characterize K-s spatial variability in a tropical forest catchment that features a high density of flowlines: A classical nested sampling survey and a purposive sampling strategy adapted to the presence of flowlines. The nested sampling approach revealed the dominance of small-scale variability, which is in line with previous findings. Our purposive sampling, however, detected a strong spatial gradient: surface K-s increased substantially as a function of distance to flowline; 10 m off flowlines, values were similar to the spatial mean of K-s. This deterministic trend can be included as a fixed effect in a linear mixed modeling framework to obtain realistic spatial fields of K-s. In a next step we used probability maps based on those fields and prevailing rainfall intensities to assess the hydrological relevance of the detected pattern. This approach suggests a particularly good agreement between the probability statements of K-s exceedance and observed overland flow occurrence during wet stages of the rainy season.
The spatial and temporal variability of a low-centred polygon on the eastern floodplain area of the lower Anabar River (72.070 degrees N, 113.921 degrees E; northern Yakutia, Siberia) has been investigated using a multi-method approach. The present-day vegetation in each square metre was analysed, revealing a community of Larix, shrubby Betula, and Salix on the polygon rim, a dominance of Carex and Andromeda polifolia in the rim-to-pond transition zone, and a predominantly monospecific Scorpidium scorpioides coverage within the pond. The total organic carbon (TOC) content, TOC/TN (total nitrogen) ratio, grain size, vascular plant macrofossils, moss remains, diatoms, and pollen were analysed for two vertical sections and a sediment core from a transect across the polygon. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the formation of the polygon started at least 1500 yr ago; the general positions of the pond and rim have not changed since that time. Two types of pond vegetation were identified, indicating two contrasting development stages of the polygon. The first was a well-established moss association, dominated by submerged or floating Scorpidium scorpioides and/or Drepanocladus spp. and overgrown by epiphytic diatoms such as Tabellaria flocculosa and Eunotia taxa. This stage coincides temporally with a period in which the polygon was only drained by lateral subsurface water flow, as indicated by mixed grain sizes. A different moss association occurred during times of repeated river flooding (indicated by homogeneous medium-grained sand that probably accumulated during the annual spring snowmelt), characterized by an abundance of Meesia triquetra and a dominance of benthic diatoms (e. g. Navicula vulpina), indicative of a relatively high pH and a high tolerance of disturbance. A comparison of the local polygon vegetation (inferred from moss and macrofossil spectra) with the regional vegetation (inferred from pollen spectra) indicated that the moss association with Scorpidium scorpioides became established during relatively favourable climatic conditions, while the association dominated by Meesia triquetra occurred during periods of harsh climatic conditions. Our study revealed a strong riverine influence (in addition to climatic influences) on polygon development and the type of peat accumulated.
Parafoveal semantic processing has recently been well documented in reading Chinese sentences, presumably because of language-specific features. However, because of a large variation of fixation landing positions on pretarget words, some preview words actually were located in foveal vision when readers' eyes landed close to the end of the pretarget words. None of the previous studies has completely ruled out a possibility that the semantic preview effects might mainly arise from these foveally processed preview words. This case, whether previously observed positive evidence for parafoveal semantic processing can still hold, has been called into question. Using linear mixed models, we demonstrate in this study that semantic preview benefit from word N+1 decreased if fixation on pretarget word N was close to the preview. We argue that parafoveal semantic processing is not a consequence of foveally processed preview words.
We perform a systematic study of all cities in Europe to assess the Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity by means of remotely sensed land surface temperature data. Defining cities as spatial clusters of urban land cover, we investigate the relationships of the UHI intensity, with the cluster size and the temperature of the surroundings. Our results show that in Europe, the UHI intensity in summer has a strong correlation with the cluster size, which can be well fitted by an empirical sigmoid model. Furthermore, we find a novel seasonality of the UHI intensity for individual clusters in the form of hysteresis-like curves. We characterize the shape and identify apparent regional patterns.
Thin thermoresponsive films of the triblock copolymer polystyrene-block-poly(methoxydiethylene glycol acrylate)-block-polystyrene (P(S-b-MDEGA-b-S)) are investigated on silicon substrates. By spin coating, homogeneous and smooth films are prepared for a range of film thicknesses from 6 to 82 nm. Films are stable with respect to dewetting as investigated with optical microscopy and atomic force microscopy. P(S-b-MDEGA-b-S) films with a thickness of 39 nm exhibit a phase transition of the lower critical solution temperature (LCST) type at 36.5 degrees C. The swelling and the thermoresponsive behavior of the films with respect to a sudden thermal stimulus are probed with in-situ neutron reflectivity. In undersaturated water vapor swelling proceeds without thickness increase. The thermoresponse proceeds in three steps: First, the film rejects water as the temperature is above LCST. Next, it stays constant for 600 s, before the collapsed film takes up water again. With ATR-FTIR measurements, changes of bound water in the film caused by different thermal stimuli are studied. Hydrogen bonds only form between C=O and water in the swollen film. Above the LCST most hydrogen bonds with water are broken, but some amount of bound water remains inside the film in agreement with the neutron reflectivity data. Grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) shows that the inner lateral structure is not significantly influenced by the different thermal stimuli.
Thick poly(styrene-b-monomethoxydiethylenglycol-acrylate-b-styrene) [P(S-b-MDEGA-b-S)] films (thickness 5 mu m) are prepared from different solvents on flexible substrates by solution casting and investigated with small-angle X-ray scattering. As the solvents are either PS- or PMDEGA-selective, micelles with different core-shell micellar structures are formed. In PMDEGA-selective solvents, the PS block is the core and PMDEGA is the shell, whereas in PS-selective solvents, the order is reversed. After exposing the films to liquid D2O, the micellar structure inside the films prepared from PMDEGA-selective solvents remains unchanged and only the PMDEGA (shell part) swells. On the contrary, in the films prepared from PS-selective solvents, the micelles revert the core and the shell. This reversal causes more entanglements of the PMDEGA chains between the micelles. Moreover, the thermal collapse transition of the PMDEGA block in liquid D2O is significantly broadened. Irrespective of the solvent used for film preparation, the swollen PMDEGA shell does not show a prominent shrinkage when passing the phase transition, and the transition process occurs via compaction. The collapsed micelles have a tendency to densely pack above the transition temperature.
Ostracod distribution and habitat relationships in the Kunlun Mountains, northern Tibetan Plateau
(2013)
Surface sediment samples were collected from the lakes Heihai, Kusai, Haiding Nuur and Yan Hu, and from streams and ponds in the Kunlun Mountains at the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau to investigate the sub-fossil ostracod (micro-crustacean) fauna of the region. Among 65 collected samples, 46 ostracod shell-rich samples were used to study the relationship between the ostracod distribution and specific conductivity (SC) of the water, which ranged from 0.6 to 53.0 mS cm(-1). A total of eleven ostracod species was identified from this region, with about half of the species restricted to the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent mountain areas, and the other half representing Holarctic taxa. Tonnacypris cf. estonica and Tonnacypris tonnensis are reported from the Tibetan Plateau for the first time. Leucocythere sp. is the dominant species and Ilyocypris cf. bradyi is also relatively abundant. The other seven species were recorded with limited abundances apparently due to lower SC tolerances. Leucocythere sp. was recorded over the full SC range from 0.6 to 53 mS cm(-1). Eucypris mareotica is a typical brackish and saline water species, which was found at sample sites with high SC (2.8-53.0 mS cm(-1)). In contrast, Leucocythere dorsotuberosa, Candona candida and Eucypris afghanistanensis prefer freshwater to slightly oli-gohaline waters with SC < 1.8 mS cm(-1). The SC optimum and tolerance range for each species were determined and compared to earlier reported data from other regions of Central Asia. The results indicate that species assemblage data from fossil ostracod shells have a large potential to provide information on past SC levels and more general climate-determined moisture conditions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.