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Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
Green recovery
(2023)
This chapter reviews how the European Union has fared in enabling a green recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, drawing comparisons to developments after the financial crisis. The chapter focuses on the European Commission and its evolving role in promoting decarbonisation efforts in its Member States, paying particular attention to its role in financing investments in low-carbon assets. It considers both the direct effects of green stimulus policies on decarbonisation in the EU and how these actions have shaped the capacities of the Commission as an actor in the field of climate and energy policy. The analysis reveals a significant expansion of the Commission’s role compared to the period following the financial crisis. EU-level measures have provided incentives for Member States to direct large volumes of financing towards investments in climate-friendly assets. Nevertheless, the ultimate impact will largely be shaped by implementation at the national level.
The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy package introduced fundamental changes compared to its 2020 predecessor. These changes included a stronger focus on the internal market and an increased emphasis on technology-neutral decarbonization while simultaneously de-emphasizing the renewables target. This article investigates whether changes in domestic policy strategies of leading member states in European climate policy preceded the observed changes in EU policy. Disaggregating strategic change into changes in different elements (goals, objectives, instrumental logic), allows us to go beyond analyzing the relative prioritization of different goals, and to analyze how policy requirements for reaching those goals were dynamically redefined over time. To this end, we introduce a new method, which based on insights from social network analysis, enables us to systematically trace those strategic chances. We find that shifts in national strategies of the investigated member states preceded the shift in EU policy. In particular, countries reframed their understanding of supply security, and pushed for the internal electricity market also as a security measure to balance fluctuating renewables. Hence, the increasing focus on markets and market integration in the European 2030 package echoed the increasingly central role of the internal market for electricity supply security in national strategies. These findings also highlight that countries dynamically redefined their goals relative to the different phases of the energy transition.
Digital technology offers significant political, economic, and societal opportunities. At the same time, the notion of digital sovereignty has become a leitmotif in German discourse: the state’s capacity to assume its responsibilities and safeguard society’s – and individuals’ – ability to shape the digital transformation in a self-determined way. The education sector is exemplary for the challenge faced by Germany, and indeed Europe, of harnessing the benefits of digital technology while navigating concerns around sovereignty. It encompasses education as a core public good, a rapidly growing field of business, and growing pools of highly sensitive personal data. The report describes pathways to mitigating the tension between digitalization and sovereignty at three different levels – state, economy, and individual – through the lens of concrete technical projects in the education sector: the HPI Schul-Cloud (state sovereignty), the MERLOT data spaces (economic sovereignty), and the openHPI platform (individual sovereignty).
Despite new challenges like climate change and digitalization, global and regional organizations recently went through turbulent times due to a lack of support from several of their member states. Next to this crisis of multilateralism, the COVID-19 pandemic now seems to question the added value of international organizations for addressing global governance issues more specifically. This article analyses this double challenge that several organizations are facing and compares their ways of managing the crisis by looking at their institutional and political context, their governance structure, and their behaviour during the pandemic until June 2020. More specifically, it will explain the different and fragmented responses of the World Health Organization, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund/World Bank. With the aim of understanding the old and new problems that these international organizations are trying to solve, this article argues that the level of autonomy vis-a-vis the member states is crucial for understanding the politics of crisis management. <br /> Points for practitioners <br /> As intergovernmental bodies, international organizations require authorization by their member states. Since they also need funding for their operations, different degrees of autonomy also matter for reacting to emerging challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The potential for international organizations is limited, though through proactive and bold initiatives, they can seize the opportunity of the crisis and partly overcome institutional and political constraints.
Digitale Technologien bieten erhebliche politische, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Chancen. Zugleich ist der Begriff digitale Souveränität zu einem Leitmotiv im deutschen Diskurs über digitale Technologien geworden: das heißt, die Fähigkeit des Staates, seine Verantwortung wahrzunehmen und die Befähigung der Gesellschaft – und des Einzelnen – sicherzustellen, die digitale Transformation selbstbestimmt zu gestalten. Exemplarisch für die Herausforderung in Deutschland und Europa, die Vorteile digitaler Technologien zu nutzen und gleichzeitig Souveränitätsbedenken zu berücksichtigen, steht der Bildungssektor. Er umfasst Bildung als zentrales öffentliches Gut, ein schnell aufkommendes Geschäftsfeld und wachsende Bestände an hochsensiblen personenbezogenen Daten. Davon ausgehend beschreibt der Bericht Wege zur Entschärfung des Spannungsverhältnisses zwischen Digitalisierung und Souveränität auf drei verschiedenen Ebenen – Staat, Wirtschaft und Individuum – anhand konkreter technischer Projekte im Bildungsbereich: die HPI Schul-Cloud (staatliche Souveränität), die MERLOT-Datenräume (wirtschaftliche Souveränität) und die openHPI-Plattform (individuelle Souveränität).
On 21 April 2021, the European Commission presented its long-awaited proposal for a Regulation “laying down harmonized rules on Artificial Intelligence”, the so-called “Artificial Intelligence Act” (AIA). This article takes a critical look at the proposed regulation. After an introduction (1), the paper analyzes the unclear preemptive effect of the AIA and EU competences (2), the scope of application (3), the prohibited uses of Artificial Intelligence (AI) (4), the provisions on high-risk AI systems (5), the obligations of providers and users (6), the requirements for AI systems with limited risks (7), the enforcement system (8), the relationship of the AIA with the existing legal framework (9), and the regulatory gaps (10). The last section draws some final conclusions (11).
Whilst the Covid-19 pandemic affects all European countries, the ways in which these countries are prepared for the health and subsequent economic crisis varies considerably. Financial solidarity within the European Union (EU) could mitigate some of these inequalities but depends upon the support of the citizens of individual member states for such policies. This paper studies attitudes of the Austrian population - a net-contributor to the European budget - towards financial solidarity using two waves of the Austrian Corona Panel Project collected in May and June 2020. We find that individuals (i) who are less likely to consider the Covid-19 pandemic as a national economic threat, (ii) who believe that Austria benefits from supporting other countries, and (iii) who prefer the crisis to be organized more centrally at EU-level show higher support for European financial solidarity. Using fixed effects models, we further show that perceiving economic threats and preferring central crisis management also explain attitude dynamics within individuals over time. We conclude that cost-benefit perceptions are important determinants for individual support of European financial solidarity during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Die Reform des Gemeinsamen Europäischen Asylsystems (GEAS) ist eine der größten Herausforderungen und eine der drängendsten Aufgaben der EU und ihrer Mitgliedstaaten. Dabei stellt die Frage der „gerechten Lastenteilung“ in der Asyl- und Migrationspolitik den Zusammenhalt der EU auf eine Zerreißprobe. Seit den gescheiterten Verhandlungen über die GEAS-Reform 2016/2017 versuchen die Mitgliedstaaten, einen Ausgleich zwischen den Grundsätzen der Solidarität und Verantwortlichkeit zu finden, wie es Art. 80 AEUV für das GEAS vorgibt. Je nach Interessenlage verbirgt sich dahinter aber ein sehr unterschiedliches Verständnis.
Diese Arbeit untersucht die Reformbemühungen beim GEAS nach Vorlage der Kommissionsvorschläge im September 2020 und beleuchtet die divergierenden Interessenlagen der Mitgliedstaaten hinsichtlich Aufnahme und Verteilung von Geflüchteten. Ziel der Arbeit ist, eine Aussage über die Erfolgsaussichten einer Einigung über die Grundsätze der Solidarität und Verantwortung zu treffen. Dazu werden zunächst die Verpflichtungen im Asylrecht basierend auf internationalen Übereinkommen wie der Genfer Flüchtlingskonvention dargestellt. An-schließend werden GEAS und Dublin-System, das dem Ersteinreisestaat die Zuständigkeit für die Asylverfahren zuschreibt, und die Ursachen für sein Scheitern analysiert.
Diese Verantwortungsteilung, die zu einer überproportionalen Belastung der Mitgliedstaaten im Süden führt, ist Kristallisationspunkt für Konflikte, gegenseitigen Vorwürfe und Misstrau-en zwischen den Mitgliedstaaten. Infolge einer tatsächlichen Überlastung und teilweise selbst verschuldeten Unmöglichkeit, die GEAS-Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen, rufen die Südstaaten nach Unterstützung aus dem Norden und betreiben teilweise sogar eine Politik des Laissez-Passer. Durch teilweise katastrophale Zustände bei Verfahren, Unterbringung und Versorgung der Geflüchteten entstehen Rückführungshindernisse und Druck auf die Zielstaaten, mehr Solidarität zu leisten.
Ausgehend von diesem Befund wird der Bedeutungsgehalt des Solidaritätsprinzips in Art. 80 AEUV in normativer und deskriptiver Hinsicht untersucht. Normativ handelt es sich dabei um eine abstrakte Rechtspflicht zur gegenseitigen Unterstützung, deren Ausgestaltung im politischen Ermessen der Mitgliedstaaten liegt. Deskriptiv kann unter „Solidarität“ der Zweck verstanden werden, dass die Verwirklichung individueller Interessen einer kollektiven Anstrengung bedarf, die wiederum das Gemeinwohl fördert und somit im Interesse aller liegt. Dem folgend müssten alle Mitgliedstaaten ein Interesse an der Bewältigung der Herausforderungen der Migration nach Europa haben.
Die Interessen der Mitgliedstaten deuten aber auf etwas anderes hin. Die durch die Ankünfte von Schutzsuchenden aus dem Süden stark belasteten Mittelmeeranrainer wie Griechenland und Italien fordern eine Abkehr vom Dublin-System. Die migrationskritischen Visegrád-Staaten verweigern im Grunde jede Unterstützung bei der Aufnahme und berufen sich darauf, dass sie ihre rechtlichen Verpflichtungen erfüllen. Staaten, die lange Zeit eine liberale Migrationspolitik verfolgten und beliebte Zielländer waren wie Schweden, ringen nach der Migrationskrise 2015/2016 mit sich auf der Suche nach einem migrationspolitischen Kurs, der rechts-populistische Kräfte nicht noch weiter erstarken lässt. Auch die Hauptzielländer Deutschland und Frankreich versuchen den jeweiligen innenpolitischen Diskursen entsprechend, die Sekundärmigration zu verhindern und wollen auf unterschiedliche Weise die Außengrenzstaaten unterstützen, wobei Deutschland die Umverteilung aller unterstützt.
Die im September 2020 vorgelegten Vorschläge der Kommission versuchen, den unterschiedlichen Interessen Rechnung zu tragen. Durch die Schaffung eines Grenzverfahrens soll die Anzahl der in die EU einreisenden und zu verteilenden Geflüchteten reduziert werden. Durch Änderung der Dublin-Kriterien soll die Zuständigkeit der potentiellen Zielländer erweitert werden, um die Südländer zu entlasten und der Sekundärmigration entgegenzuwirken. Mit der gleichen Zielrichtung soll auf Grundlage eines neuen Solidaritätsmechanismus eine Umverteilung unbegleiteter Minderjähriger und aus Seenot Geretteter erfolgen. In Krisenzeiten soll daraus eine generelle Umverteilung aller Schutzsuchenden erwachsen, wobei Solidarität weiterhin auf verschiedene Art und Weise geleistet werden können soll.
Angesichts der Verhandlungen während der deutschen EU-Ratspräsidentschaft und des er-reichten Zwischenergebnisses besteht Skepsis, dass die Mitgliedstaaten sich bald auf eine GEAS-Reform einigen werden. Dazu liegen die Interessen der Mitgliedstaaten auch hinsichtlich der Solidarität zu weit auseinander. Zudem stellt sich die in Hinblick auf die europäische Integration und die Zukunft der EU besorgniserregende Frage, worin das im Interesse aller liegende Gemeinwohl in der Asylpolitik liegen soll, das die gemeinsame Kraftanstrengung zu einem individuellen Interesse jedes Einzelnen werden lässt. Denn anders als bei der Schaffung des Schengen-Raums als Raum ohne Binnengrenzen sind Wohlstandsgewinne von der Aufnahme Geflüchteter vorerst nicht zu erwarten.
Research on multi-level implementation of EU legislation has almost exclusively focused on the national level, while little is known about the role of subnational authorities. Nevertheless, it is a prerequisite for the functioning of the European Union that all member states and their subnational authorities apply and enforce EU legislation in due time. I address this research gap and take a closer look at the legal transposition process in the German regional states. Using a novel data set comprising detailed information on about 700 subnational measures, I show that state-level variables, such as political preferences and ministerial resources, account for variation in the timing of legal transposition and repeatedly lead to subnational delay. To conclude, the paper addresses the role of subnational authorities in the EU multi-level system and points to their interest in shaping legal transposition in order to counterbalance their loss of competences to the national level.
Struggling over crisis
(2018)
If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.” Following the premise of this quotation attributed to Winston Churchill, varying perceptions of the European crisis by academic economists and their structural homology to economists’ positions in the field of economics are examined. The dataset analysed using specific multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) comprises information on the careers of 480 German-speaking economists and on statements they made concerning crisis-related issues. It can be shown that the main structural differences in the composition and amount of scientific and academic capital held by economists as well as their age and degree of transnationalisation are linked to how they see the crisis: as a national sovereign debt crisis, as a European banking crisis, or as a crisis of European integration and institutions.
This article explores the various futures of relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. After distilling two major drivers we construct a future compass in order to conceive of four futures of relations between the EU and Ukraine. Our scenarios aim to challenge deep-rooted assumptions on the EU’s neighbourhood with Ukraine: How will the politico-economic challenges in the European countries influence the EU’s approach towards the East? Will more EU engagement in Ukraine contribute to enduring peace? Does peace always come with stability? Which prospects does the idea of Intermarium have? Are the pivotal transformation players in Ukraine indeed oligarchs or rather small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs? After presenting our scenarios, we propose indicators to know in the years to come, along which path future relations do develop. By unearthing surprising developments we hope to provoke innovative thoughts on Eastern Europe in times of post truth societies, confrontation between states and hybrid warfare.
Clusterpolitik als Politikfeld an der Schnittstelle von Industrie-, Innovations- (F&E) und Regionalpolitik entwickelte sich Mitte der 1990er Jahre zuerst in einigen EU Mitgliedsstaaten, darunter Deutschland. Mit einem Abstand von rund 10 Jahren begann die Herausbildung als eigenes Politikfeld in Frankreich. Die europäische Ebene begann ebenfalls erst ab Mitte der 2000er Jahre im Zusammenhang mit der Lissabon Strategie sich intensiver mit Clustern und Clusterpolitik zu beschäftigen und entwickelte ab 2008 Jahren einen systematischen Politikansatz.
Der Anstoß zur Politikfeldentwicklung auf dem Gebiet der Clusterpolitik ging in Europa also gerade nicht von der EU-Ebene aus. Auch wenn das Politikfeld „EU-Clusterpolitik“ einem erheblichen Wandel im Zuge der Europa 2020 Strategie unterlag, findet eine Koordinierung der mitgliedsstaatlichen Politiken durch die EU-Ebene bislang nicht statt und ist – soweit ersichtlich – von Seiten der EU auch nicht angestrebt. Die EU Clusterpolitik ist vielmehr komplementär und unterstützend zu den nationalen Politiken ausgerichtet.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird aufgezeigt, dass sich die drei clusterpolitischen Arenen EU, Deutschland, Frankreich weitestgehend unabhängig voneinander entwickelten und jeweils eigenen von unterschiedlichen Institutionen, Kontexten, Traditionen und Pfadabhängigkeiten bestimmten Logiken folgten. Sowohl der vertikale als auch der horizontale Verflechtungsgrad ist gering zwischen EU und Mitgliedsstaaten. Verflechtungsmuster beginnen gerade erst sich auszudifferenzieren. Jedoch sind Policy-Transfer oder sogar Policy-Learning Prozesse zwischen den drei Arenen EU, Deutschland und Frankreich schon in Ansätzen erkennbar.
Es gibt deutliche Unterschiede in den Clusterpolitiken Frankreichs und Deutschlands. Clusterpolitik wird in Deutschland in erster Linie auf Ebene der Länder konzipiert und implementiert, während sie in Frankreich nach wie vor vom Zentralstaat gesteuert wird – wenn auch mit zunehmend konzeptioneller Beteiligung der regionalen Ebene. Die Neuausrichtung der EU Clusterpolitik im Rahmen der Europa 2020 Strategie fand in Frankreich eine deutlich stärkere Resonanz als in Deutschland.
Die Handlungslogik hinter den clusterpolitischen Maßnahmen der EU mit Bezug zur Lissabon-Strategie lag in der Verbesserung der Innovationsfähigkeit – die Handlungslogik der clusterpolitischen Maßnahmen im Rahmen der Europa 2020 Strategie liegt in der Modernisierung der industriellen Basis Europas durch Entwicklung neuer Wertschöpfungsketten. Die EU Clusterpolitik unterlag insofern einem erheblichen Wandel.
This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis.
The article explores Europeanisation as an effect of European political integration, a process driven by struggles over the legitimate political and social order that is to prevail in Europe. Firstly, an analytic framework is constructed, drawing on insights from Pierre Bourdieu’s work on similar struggles over nation-stateness. Secondly, the mechanisms identified are used to assess the role played by economic experts and expertise in the process of European political integration. It is argued that concepts arising from economic disciplines, agents educated in economics, and practising economic professionals influence European political integration and have benefited from Europeanisation initiated by this process. Special emphasis is placed on strategies of integrating Europe by law or by market, on governing Europe using economic expertise, on the role played by economic academia in researching and objectifying Europe, and on staffing European institutions with economists.
Data are presented on young people's sexual victimisation and perpetration from 10 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Greece, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain) using a shared measurement tool (N = 3480 participants, aged between 18 and 27 years). Between 19.7 and 52.2% of female and between 10.1 and 55.8% of male respondents reported having experienced at least one incident of sexual victimisation since the age of consent. In two countries, victimisation rates were significantly higher for men than for women. Between 5.5 and 48.7% of male and 2.6 and 14.8% of female participants reported having engaged in a least one act of sexual aggression perpetration, with higher rates for men than for women in all countries. Victimisation rates correlated negatively with sexual assertiveness and positively with alcohol use in sexual encounters. Perpetration rates correlated positively with attitudes condoning physical dating violence and with alcohol use in men, and negatively with sexual assertiveness in women. At the country level, lower gender equality in economic power and in the work domain was related to higher male perpetration rates. Lower gender equality in political power and higher sexual assertiveness in women relative to men were linked to higher male victimisation rates.
Compliance with EU biofuel targets in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe: Do interest groups matter?
(2015)
The European Union requires its member states to establish national targets for the biofuel content of all diesel and petrol supplies for transport placed on the market. This study explores the adoption of this European Union policy across South-Eastern and Eastern Europe between 2003 and 2012. In theoretical terms, we are specifically interested in examining the role of interest groups for policy adoption. We argue that the oil industry in general and the producers of biofuels in particular will support the establishment of national biofuel targets because they expect economic gains. By contrast, we expect environmental groups with international and regional ties to oppose such targets because biofuels have come under attack for their potential environmental impact including deforestation, a loss in biodiversity, and food insecurity. Empirically, we concentrate on policy adoptions in 21 South-Eastern and Eastern European states with varied relations to the European Union and the Energy Community. Our analysis supports our main arguments in suggesting that a stronger presence of environmental groups decreases the chances of adopting national biofuel targets across our country sample while producer interests tend to increase adoptions. This finding holds true also when controlling for a country's European Union membership and accession perspective, membership in the Energy Community, and additional domestic-level factors. These results add more generally to our understanding about compliance with European Union policies and environmental governance.
Sexual aggression poses a serious threat to the sexual well-being of young people. This paper documents the available evidence on the prevalence of sexual aggression perpetration and victimization from 27 EU countries, established as part of the Youth Sexual Aggression and Victimization (Y-SAV) project. A total of N = 113 studies were identified through a systematic review of the literature and consultations with experts in each country. Despite differences in the number of available studies, methodology, and sample composition, the review shows substantial prevalence rates of sexual aggression perpetration and victimization across Europe. A wide variation was found, both within and between countries. The lifetime prevalence rates of female sexual victimization, excluding childhood sexual abuse, ranged from 9 to 83%, the rates of male sexual victimization ranged from 2 to 66%, the rates of male sexual aggression ranged from 0 to 80%, and the range of female sexual aggression ranged from 0.8 to 40%. One-year prevalence rates showed a similar variability. Conceptual and methodological problems in the database are discussed, and an outline is presented for a more harmonized approach to studying the scale of sexual aggression among young people in Europe. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The term solidarity is lacking a precise definition despite being embedded as primary law in the EU treaties and regardless of its pivotal role in the current debate on the euro crisis. Once the semantic core is unearthed we sketch three dimensions of European solidarity (motives, references, level of action). Through this we shall distil three ideal types of an intergovernmental European solidarity: a federal, an organic and a distributive type. Empirically we assign the most relevant measures, which were discussed and partially enacted in the course of the euro crisis, to the three ideal types where we identify an increasing tendency towards a distributive solidarity. Once the first elements will be upgraded to a full-blown distributive solidarity through further integration, several risks arise from a normative perspective.
Ende Juli 2011 jubelt die europäische Presse: Endlich gebe es die nötige Solidarität in der Euro-Zone. Die Angriffe der Rating-Agenturen könnten abgewehrt, die Interessen der Finanzmärkte befriedet werden. Was aber heißt Solidarität hier und heute? Wie ist sie in der Europäischen Union verankert, formal, rechtlich und politisch? Mit was für einer Krise haben wir es überhaupt zu tun? Was verbindet die eingeforderte Solidarität mit der Demokratie? Und welche Rolle spielt Deutschland in dieser Krise? Antworten auf diese Fragen bietet der Text von Heinz Kleger.