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The prediction of the ground shaking that can occur at a site of interest due to an earthquake is crucial in any seismic hazard analysis. Usually, empirically derived ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are employed within a logic-tree framework to account for this step. This is, however, challenging if the area under consideration has only low seismicity and lacks enough recordings to develop a region-specific GMPE. It is then usual practice to adapt GMPEs from data-rich regions (host area) to the area with insufficient ground-motion recordings (target area). Host GMPEs must be adjusted in such a way that they will capture the specific ground-motion characteristics of the target area. In order to do so, seismological parameters of the target region have to be provided as, for example, the site-specific attenuation factor kappa0. This is again an intricate task if data amount is too sparse to derive these parameters.
In this thesis, I explore methods that can facilitate the selection of non-endemic GMPEs in a logic-tree analysis or their adjustment to a data-poor region. I follow two different strategies towards this goal.
The first approach addresses the setup of a ground-motion logic tree if no indigenous GMPE is available. In particular, I propose a method to derive an optimized backbone model that captures the median ground-motion characteristics in the region of interest. This is done by aggregating several foreign GMPEs as weighted components of a mixture model in which the weights are inferred from observed data. The approach is applied to Northern Chile, a region for which no indigenous GMPE existed at the time of the study. Mixture models are derived for interface and intraslab type events using eight subduction zone GMPEs originating from different parts of the world. The derived mixtures provide satisfying results in terms of average residuals and average sample log-likelihoods. They outperform all individual non-endemic GMPEs and are comparable to a regression model that was specifically derived for that area.
The second approach is concerned with the derivation of the site-specific attenuation factor kappa0. kappa0 is one of the key parameters in host-to-target adjustments of GMPEs but is hard to derive if data amount is sparse. I explore methods to estimate kappa0 from ambient seismic noise. Seismic noise is, in contrast to earthquake recordings, continuously available. The rapidly emerging field of seismic interferometry gives the possibility to infer velocity and attenuation information from the cross-correlation or deconvolution of long noise recordings. The extraction of attenuation parameters from diffuse wavefields is, however, not straightforward especially not for frequencies above 1 Hz and at shallow depth. In this thesis, I show the results of two studies. In the first one, data of a small-scale array experiment in Greece are used to derive Love wave quality factors in
the frequency range 1-4 Hz. In a second study, frequency dependent quality factors of S-waves (5-15 Hz) are estimated by deconvolving noise recorded in a borehole and at a co-located surface station in West Bohemia/Vogtland. These two studies can be seen as preliminary steps towards the estimation of kappa0 from seismic noise.
Rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provide a new source of information with high spatiotemporal resolution that overcomes the limitations of ground-based rainfall information worldwide. This study evaluates the performance of the Integrated multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Final Run product over Brazil by means of multi-temporal and -spatial analyses. The assessment of the IMERG Final Run product is based on six statistics obtained for the period between January-December 2016 (daily, monthly, and annual basis). The analysis consisted of comparing the satellite-based estimates against a ground-based gridded rainfall product created using daily records from 4911 rain gauges distributed throughout Brazil. Overall, the results show that the IMERG product can effectively capture the spatial patterns of rainfall across Brazil. However, the IMERG product presents a slight tendency in overestimating the ground-based rainfall at all timescales. Furthermore, the performance of the satellite product varies throughout the region. The higher errors and biases are found in the North and Central-West regions, but the low density of rain gauges in those regions can be a source of large deviations between IMERG estimates and observations. A large underestimation of the IMERG data is evident along the coastal zone of the North-east region, probably due to the inability of the passive microwave and infrared sensors to detect warm-rain processes over land. This study shows that the IMERG product can be a good source of rainfall data to complement the ground precipitation measurements in most of Brazil, although some uncertainties are found and need to be further studied
To achieve the goal of keeping global warming well below 2 °C, private investors have to shift capital from brown to green infrastructures and technologies and provide additional green investment. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic perspective on the challenge of triggering such investments. The question of climate change mitigation is often related to the prisoner's dilemma, a game with one Nash equilibrium. However, the authors perceive investment for mitigation and adaptation as a coordination problem of selecting among multiple equilibria. To illustrate this, we model a non-cooperative coordination game, related to the stag hunt, with a brown equilibrium with lower payoffs that can be achieved single-handedly and a green equilibrium with higher payoffs that requires coordination. As multiple experiments show, in such games actors often fail to coordinate on a payoff dominant equilibrium due to uncertainty. Thus, we discuss how uncertainty could be reduced along two options: one that concerns a change in the payoff structure of the game and another that concerns subjective probabilities.
GrassPlot is a collaborative vegetation-plot database organised by the Eurasian Dry Grassland Group (EDGG) and listed in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD ID EU-00-003). GrassPlot collects plot records (releves) from grasslands and other open habitats of the Palaearctic biogeographic realm. It focuses on precisely delimited plots of eight standard grain sizes (0.0001; 0.001;... 1,000 m(2)) and on nested-plot series with at least four different grain sizes. The usage of GrassPlot is regulated through Bylaws that intend to balance the interests of data contributors and data users. The current version (v. 1.00) contains data for approximately 170,000 plots of different sizes and 2,800 nested-plot series. The key components are richness data and metadata. However, most included datasets also encompass compositional data. About 14,000 plots have near-complete records of terricolous bryophytes and lichens in addition to vascular plants. At present, GrassPlot contains data from 36 countries throughout the Palaearctic, spread across elevational gradients and major grassland types. GrassPlot with its multi-scale and multi-taxon focus complements the larger international vegetationplot databases, such as the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and the global database " sPlot". Its main aim is to facilitate studies on the scale-and taxon-dependency of biodiversity patterns and drivers along macroecological gradients. GrassPlot is a dynamic database and will expand through new data collection coordinated by the elected Governing Board. We invite researchers with suitable data to join GrassPlot. Researchers with project ideas addressable with GrassPlot data are welcome to submit proposals to the Governing Board.
Granitic melt inclusions were found in layers of garnet clinopyroxenites from orogenic peridotites hosted in high-pressure felsic granulites of the Granulitgebirge, central Europe. The inclusions are both glassy and crystallized, and occur as clusters in the garnet. Microstructural features suggest that the inclusions formed while garnet was growing as a peritectic phase, likely alongside clinopyroxene. The chemistry of the melt, in particular its trace element signature, shows a crustal contribution, probably due to the involvement of phengite in the melt-producing reaction, most likely in the presence of a fluid. The presence of a granitoid melt in mantle rocks may be the result of localized melting of a phengite-bearing protolith either already present in the peridotites or, more likely, within the local deeply subducted crustal units. In the latter case, the melt would have infiltrated the peridotites and generated pyroxenite via metasomatism. In either case, the presence of granitoid inclusions in orogenic peridotite provides direct evidence for a genetic connection between a high-pressure crustal melt and garnet pyroxenites. The in situ characterization of these remnants of natural melt provides direct quantitative constraints on (one of) the agents responsible for the interaction between crust and mantle.
Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
(2018)
Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate(1). Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability(2,3). However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland(2), a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.
Glaciers and rivers are the main agents of mountain erosion. While in the fluvial realm empirical relationships and their mathematical description, such as the stream power law, improved the understanding of fundamental controls on landscape evolution, simple constraints on glacial topography and governing scaling relations are widely lacking. We present a steady state solution for longitudinal profiles along eroding glaciers in a coupled system that includes tectonics and climate. We combined the shallow ice approximation and a glacial erosion rule to calculate ice surface and bed topography from prescribed glacier mass balance gradient and rock uplift rate. Our approach is inspired by the classic application of the stream power law for describing a fluvial steady state but with the striking difference that, in the glacial realm, glacier mass balance is added as an altitude-dependent variable. From our analyses we find that ice surface slope and glacial relief scale with uplift rate with scaling exponents indicating that glacial relief is less sensitive to uplift rate than relief in most fluvial landscapes. Basic scaling relations controlled by either basal sliding or internal deformation follow a power law with the exponent depending on the exponents for the glacial erosion rule and Glen's flow law. In a mixed scenario of sliding and deformation, complicated scaling relations with variable exponents emerge. Furthermore, a cutoff in glacier mass balance or cold ice in high elevations can lead to substantially larger scaling exponents which may provide an explanation for high relief in high latitudes.
The article provides a contribution to the glacial geomorphology of tropical high-altitude mountains. It focuses on the diversity of glacial landforms in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru). The landforms are classified as individual landform types as well as in their hypsometric sequence. Their spatial arrangement is depicted in vertical series and summarised in a glacial-morphological altitudinal belt model. The glacial landforms are analysed in a genetic succession from the moraine-delimited glacier forefields to the excessive pedestal moraines and taking account of the topographical conditions in the verticality. The Pleistocene glacial relief formation is considered as one of the dominating factors in the development of the moraine types. The sediments are on the one hand in situ deposition forms and on the other depositions dislocated by mass movements and represent paraglacial landforms. Using the example of the Paron Valley in the Artesonraju-Huandoy Massif and neighbouring valleys, the article provides a typology of the range of glacial and paraglacial landforms based on a holistic glacial landsystem approach with special reference to pedestal moraines. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by catastrophic floods that are caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams; however, the dynamics and long-term impacts of such floods remain poorly understood. We present a comprehensive set of observations that capture the July 2016 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River of Nepal. Seismic records of the flood provide new insights into GLOF mechanics and their ability to mobilize large boulders that otherwise prevent channel erosion. Because of this boulder mobilization, GLOF impacts far exceed those of the annual summer monsoon, and GLOFs may dominate fluvial erosion and channel-hillslope coupling many tens of kilometers downstream of glaciated areas. Long-term valley evolution in these regions may therefore be driven by GLOF frequency and magnitude, rather than by precipitation.
Quantifying the pace of ice-sheet growth is critical to understanding ice-age climate and dynamics. Here, we show that the diversion of the Hudson River (northeastern North America) late in the last glaciation phase (ca. 30 ka), which some previous studies have speculated was due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), can be used to infer the timing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s growth to its maximum extent. Landscapes in the vicinity of glaciated regions have likely responded to crustal deformation produced by ice-sheet growth and decay through river drainage reorganization, given that rates of uplift and subsidence are on the order of tens of meters per thousand years. We perform global, gravitationally self-consistent simulations of GIA and input the predicted crustal deformation field into a landscape evolution model. Our calculations indicate that the eastward diversion of the Hudson River at 30 ka is consistent with exceptionally rapid growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet late in the glaciation phase, beginning at 50–35 ka.
Glacial deposits on the high-altitude, arid southern Central Andean Plateau (CAP), the Puna in northwestern Argentina, document past changes in climate, but the associated geomorphic features have rarely been directly dated. This study provides direct age control of glacial moraine deposits from the central Puna (24 degrees S) at elevations of 3900-5000 m through surface exposure dating with cosmogenic nuclides. Our results show that the most extensive glaciations occurred before 95 ka and an additional major advance occurred between 46 and 39 ka. The latter period is synchronous with the highest lake levels in the nearby Pozuelos basin and the Minchin (Inca Huasi) wet phase on the Altiplano in the northern CAP. None of the dated moraines produced boulder ages corresponding to the Tauca wet phase (24-15 ka). Additionally, the volcanic lithologies of the deposits allow us to establish production ratios at low latitude and high elevation for five different nuclide and mineral systems: Be-10, Ne-21, and Al-26 from quartz (11 or 12 samples) and He-3 and Ne-21 from pyroxene (10 samples). We present production ratios for all combinations of the measured nuclides and cross-calibrated production rates for 21Ne in pyroxene and quartz for the high, (sub-)tropical Andes. The production rates are based on our Be-10-normalized production ratios and a weighted mean of reference 10Be production rates calibrated in the high, tropical Andes (4.02 +/- 0.12 at g(-1) yr(-1)). These are, Ne-21(qtz): 18.1 +/- 1.2 at g(-1) yr(-1) and Ne-21(px): 36.6 +/- 1.8 at g(-1) yr(-1) (En(88-94)) scaled to sea level and high latitude using the Lal/Stone scheme, with 1 sigma uncertainties. As He-3 and Al-26 have been directly calibrated in the tropical Andes, we recommend using those rates. Finally, we compare exposure ages calculated using all measured cosmogenic nuclides from each sample, including 11 feldspar samples measured for Cl-36, and a suite of previously published production rates. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Quaternary glaciations have repeatedly shaped large tracts of the Andean foreland. Its spectacular large glacial lakes, staircases of moraine ridges, and extensive outwash plains have inspired generations of scientists to reconstruct the processes, magnitude, and timing of ice build-up and decay at the mountain front. Surprisingly few of these studies noticed many dozens of giant (≥108 m3) mass-wasting deposits in the foreland. We report some of the world's largest terrestrial landslides in the eastern piedmont of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) along the traces of the former Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Puyerredón glacier lobes and lakes. More than 283 large rotational slides and lateral spreads followed by debris slides, earthflows, rotational and translational rockslides, complex slides and few large rock avalanches detached some 164 ± 56 km3 of material from the slopes of volcanic mesetas, lake-bounding moraines, and river-gorge walls. Many of these landslide deposits intersect with well-dated moraine ridges or former glacial-lake shorelines, and offer opportunities for relative dating of slope failure. We estimate that >60% of the landslide volume (∼96 km3) detached after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Giant slope failures cross-cutting shorelines of a large Late Glacial to Early Holocene lake (“glacial lake PIS”) likely occurred during successive lake-level drop between ∼11.5 and 8 ka, and some of them are the largest hitherto documented landslides in moraines. We conclude that 1) large portions of terminal moraines can fail catastrophically several thousand years after emplacement; 2) slopes formed by weak bedrock or unconsolidated glacial deposits bordering glacial lakes can release extremely large landslides; and 3) landslides still occur in the piedmont, particularly along postglacial gorges cut in response to falling lake levels.
The lateral and vertical temperature distribution in Oman is so far only poorly understood, particularly in the area between Muscat and the Batinah coast, which is the area of this study and which is composed of Cenozoic sediments developed as part of a foreland basin of the Makran Thrust Zone. Temperature logs (T-logs) were run and physical rock properties of the sediments were analyzed to understand the temperature distribution, thermal and hydraulic properties, and heat-transport processes within the sedimentary cover of northern Oman. An advective component is evident in the otherwise conduction-dominated geothermal play system, and is caused by both topography and density driven flow. Calculated temperature gradients (T-gradients) in two wells that represent conductive conditions are 18.7 and 19.5 °C km−1, corresponding to about 70–90 °C at 2000–3000 m depth. This indicates a geothermal potential that can be used for energy intensive applications like cooling or water desalinization. Sedimentation in the foreland basin was initiated after the obduction of the Semail Ophiolite in the late Campanian, and reflects the complex history of alternating periods of transgressive and regressive sequences with erosion of the Oman Mountains. Thermal and hydraulic parameters were analyzed of the basin’s heterogeneous clastic and carbonate sedimentary sequence. Surface heat-flow values of 46.4 and 47.9 mW m−2 were calculated from the T-logs and calculated thermal conductivity values in two wells. The results of this study serve as a starting point for assessing different geothermal applications that may be suitable for northern Oman.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth ∕ diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth ∕ diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth / diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth / diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
The Northern Central Iranian Micro-continent (CIM) represents Neotethys-related oceanic crust remnants, emplaced due to convergence between CIM and Eurasia plates during Eocene. Mafic and ultramafic units are exposed along the northern part of the CIM in the Sabzevar area. The geology and field relation of Sabzevar ophiolite indicate northward subduction of the Sabzevar basin. The average whole rock chemistry of mafic (gabbros) and ultramafic samples (lherzolite, harzburgite and dunite) is characterized by a range of MgO of 11.16-31.88, CaO 5.22-11.53 and Al2O3 2.77-14.57, respectively. Low LREE/HREE ratio of ultramafic samples is accompanied by enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Sr, Pb and K. Mafic samples show two distinct groups with low and high LREE/HREE ratios. The spider diagram of mafic samples indicates enrichment in Sr, Pb and K and depletion in REE. Petrological and geochemical evidence and field relations show that the mafic rocks formed in a supra-subduction zone setting. Petrological studies reveal the role of fractional crystallization and assimilation effect by released fluids during subduction related generation of the Sabzevar mafic rocks. We suggest that the studied mafic rocks likely represent the basement of an initial island arc, which was generated in a supra-subduction zone setting within the Neotethys branch of the Sabzevar Ocean at the north of CIM. Copper, gold and chromite mineralizations are studied in relation to island arc setting and supra-subduction environment. Similarities in lithology, ophiolite age and mineralization between Sabzevar ophiolite and Bardaskan-Torbat Heydariyeh ophiolites testify for their separation due to rotation (or faulting) of the Central Iranian Micro-continent.
From precipitation to damage
(2018)
Flood risk assessments for large river basins often involve piecing together smaller-scale assessments leading to erroneous risk statements. We describe a coupled model chain for quantifying flood risk at the scale of 100,000 km(2). It consists of a catchment model, a 1D-2D river network model, and a loss model. We introduce the model chain and present two applications. The first application for the Elbe River basin with an area of 66,000 km(2) demonstrates that it is feasible to simulate the complete risk chain for large river basins in a continuous simulation mode with high temporal and spatial resolution. In the second application, RFM is coupled to a multisite weather generator and applied to the Mulde catchment with an area of 6,000 km(2). This approach is able to provide a very long time series of spatially heterogeneous patterns of precipitation, discharge, inundation, and damage. These patterns respect the spatial correlation of the different processes and are suitable to derive large-scale risk estimates. We discuss how the RFM approach can be transferred to the continental scale.
The correct estimation of site-specific attenuation is crucial for the assessment of seismic hazard. Downhole instruments provide in this context valuable information to constrain attenuation directly from data. In this study, we apply an interferometric approach to this problem by deconvolving seismic motions recorded at depth with those recorded at the surface. In doing so, incident and surface-reflected waves can be separated. We apply this technique not only to earthquake data but also to recordings of ambient vibrations. We compute the transfer function between incident and surface-reflected waves in order to infer frequency-dependent quality factors for S waves. The method is applied to a 87m deep borehole sensor and a colocated surface instrument situated at a hard-rock site in West Bohemia/Vogtland, Germany. We show that the described method provides comparable attenuation estimates using either earthquake data or ambient noise for frequencies between 5 and 15 Hz. Moreover, a single hour of noise recordings seems to be sufficient to yield stable deconvolution traces and quality factors, thus, offering a fast and easy way to derive attenuation estimates from borehole recordings even in low- to mid-seismicity regions.
Foreword
(2018)
The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.