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Systems of Systems (SoS) have received a lot of attention recently. In this thesis we will focus on SoS that are built atop the techniques of Service-Oriented Architectures and thus combine the benefits and challenges of both paradigms. For this thesis we will understand SoS as ensembles of single autonomous systems that are integrated to a larger system, the SoS. The interesting fact about these systems is that the previously isolated systems are still maintained, improved and developed on their own. Structural dynamics is an issue in SoS, as at every point in time systems can join and leave the ensemble. This and the fact that the cooperation among the constituent systems is not necessarily observable means that we will consider these systems as open systems. Of course, the system has a clear boundary at each point in time, but this can only be identified by halting the complete SoS. However, halting a system of that size is practically impossible. Often SoS are combinations of software systems and physical systems. Hence a failure in the software system can have a serious physical impact what makes an SoS of this kind easily a safety-critical system. The contribution of this thesis is a modelling approach that extends OMG's SoaML and basically relies on collaborations and roles as an abstraction layer above the components. This will allow us to describe SoS at an architectural level. We will also give a formal semantics for our modelling approach which employs hybrid graph-transformation systems. The modelling approach is accompanied by a modular verification scheme that will be able to cope with the complexity constraints implied by the SoS' structural dynamics and size. Building such autonomous systems as SoS without evolution at the architectural level --- i. e. adding and removing of components and services --- is inadequate. Therefore our approach directly supports the modelling and verification of evolution.
ArcticBeach v1.0
(2022)
In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007-2016, and 1995-2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014-2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.
BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics.
Lake ecosystems across the globe have responded to climate warming of recent decades. However, correctly attributing observed changes to altered climatic conditions is complicated by multiple anthropogenic influences on lakes. This thesis contributes to a better understanding of climate impacts on freshwater phytoplankton, which forms the basis of the food chain and decisively influences water quality. The analyses were, for the most part, based on a long-term data set of physical, chemical and biological variables of a shallow, polymictic lake in north-eastern Germany (Müggelsee), which was subject to a simultaneous change in climate and trophic state during the past three decades. Data analysis included constructing a dynamic simulation model, implementing a genetic algorithm to parameterize models, and applying statistical techniques of classification tree and time-series analysis. Model results indicated that climatic factors and trophic state interactively determine the timing of the phytoplankton spring bloom (phenology) in shallow lakes. Under equally mild spring conditions, the phytoplankton spring bloom collapsed earlier under high than under low nutrient availability, due to a switch from a bottom-up driven to a top-down driven collapse. A novel approach to model phenology proved useful to assess the timings of population peaks in an artificially forced zooplankton-phytoplankton system. Mimicking climate warming by lengthening the growing period advanced algal blooms and consequently also peaks in zooplankton abundance. Investigating the reasons for the contrasting development of cyanobacteria during two recent summer heat wave events revealed that anomalously hot weather did not always, as often hypothesized, promote cyanobacteria in the nutrient-rich lake studied. The seasonal timing and duration of heat waves determined whether critical thresholds of thermal stratification, decisive for cyanobacterial bloom formation, were crossed. In addition, the temporal patterns of heat wave events influenced the summer abundance of some zooplankton species, which as predators may serve as a buffer by suppressing phytoplankton bloom formation. This thesis adds to the growing body of evidence that lake ecosystems have strongly responded to climatic changes of recent decades. It reaches beyond many previous studies of climate impacts on lakes by focusing on underlying mechanisms and explicitly considering multiple environmental changes. Key findings show that climate impacts are more severe in nutrient-rich than in nutrient-poor lakes. Hence, to develop lake management plans for the future, limnologists need to seek a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of overlapping effects of the multi-faceted human footprint on aquatic ecosystems.
Complete protection against flood risks by structural measures is impossible. Therefore flood prediction is important for flood risk management. Good explanatory power of flood models requires a meaningful representation of bio-physical processes. Therefore great interest exists to improve the process representation. Progress in hydrological process understanding is achieved through a learning cycle including critical assessment of an existing model for a given catchment as a first step. The assessment will highlight deficiencies of the model, from which useful additional data requirements are derived, giving a guideline for new measurements. These new measurements may in turn lead to improved process concepts. The improved process concepts are finally summarized in an updated hydrological model. In this thesis I demonstrate such a learning cycle, focusing on the advancement of model evaluation methods and more cost effective measurements. For a successful model evaluation, I propose that three questions should be answered: 1) when is a model reproducing observations in a satisfactory way? 2) If model results deviate, of what nature is the difference? And 3) what are most likely the relevant model components affecting these differences? To answer the first two questions, I developed a new method to assess the temporal dynamics of model performance (or TIGER - TIme series of Grouped Errors). This method is powerful in highlighting recurrent patterns of insufficient model behaviour for long simulation periods. I answered the third question with the analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity (TEDPAS). For calculating TEDPAS, an efficient method for sensitivity analysis is necessary. I used such an efficient method called Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, which has a smart sampling scheme. Combining the two methods TIGER and TEDPAS provided a powerful tool for model assessment. With WaSiM-ETH applied to the Weisseritz catchment as a case study, I found insufficient process descriptions for the snow dynamics and for the recession during dry periods in late summer and fall. Focusing on snow dynamics, reasons for poor model performance can either be a poor representation of snow processes in the model, or poor data on snow cover, or both. To obtain an improved data set on snow cover, time series of snow height and temperatures were collected with a cost efficient method based on temperature measurements on multiple levels at each location. An algorithm was developed to simultaneously estimate snow height and cold content from these measurements. Both, snow height and cold content are relevant quantities for spring flood forecasting. Spatial variability was observed at the local and the catchment scale with an adjusted sampling design. At the local scale, samples were collected on two perpendicular transects of 60 m length and analysed with geostatistical methods. The range determined from fitted theoretical variograms was within the range of the sampling design for 80% of the plots. No patterns were found, that would explain the random variability and spatial correlation at the local scale. At the watershed scale, locations of the extensive field campaign were selected according to a stratified sample design to capture the combined effects of elevation, aspect and land use. The snow height is mainly affected by the plot elevation. The expected influence of aspect and land use was not observed. To better understand the deficiencies of the snow module in WaSiM-ETH, the same approach, a simple degree day model was checked for its capability to reproduce the data. The degree day model was capable to explain the temporal variability for plots with a continuous snow pack over the entire snow season, if parameters were estimated for single plots. However, processes described in the simple model are not sufficient to represent multiple accumulation-melt-cycles, as observed for the lower catchment. Thus, the combined spatio-temporal variability at the watershed scale is not captured by the model. Further tests on improved concepts for the representation of snow dynamics at the Weißeritz are required. From the data I suggest to include at least rain on snow and redistribution by wind as additional processes to better describe spatio-temporal variability. Alternatively an energy balance snow model could be tested. Overall, the proposed learning cycle is a useful framework for targeted model improvement. The advanced model diagnostics is valuable to identify model deficiencies and to guide field measurements. The additional data collected throughout this work helps to get a deepened understanding of the processes in the Weisseritz catchment.
A comet is a highly dynamic object, undergoing a permanent state of change. These changes have to be carefully classified and considered according to their intrinsic temporal and spatial scales. The Rosetta mission has, through its contiguous in-situ and remote sensing coverage of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P) over the time span of August 2014 to September 2016, monitored the emergence, culmination, and winding down of the gas and dust comae. This provided an unprecedented data set and has spurred a large effort to connect in-situ and remote sensing measurements to the surface. In this review, we address our current understanding of cometary activity and the challenges involved when linking comae data to the surface. We give the current state of research by describing what we know about the physical processes involved from the surface to a few tens of kilometres above it with respect to the gas and dust emission from cometary nuclei. Further, we describe how complex multidimensional cometary gas and dust models have developed from the Halley encounter of 1986 to today. This includes the study of inhomogeneous outgassing and determination of the gas and dust production rates. Additionally, the different approaches used and results obtained to link coma data to the surface will be discussed. We discuss forward and inversion models and we describe the limitations of the respective approaches. The current literature suggests that there does not seem to be a single uniform process behind cometary activity. Rather, activity seems to be the consequence of a variety of erosion processes, including the sublimation of both water ice and more volatile material, but possibly also more exotic processes such as fracture and cliff erosion under thermal and mechanical stress, sub-surface heat storage, and a complex interplay of these processes. Seasons and the nucleus shape are key factors for the distribution and temporal evolution of activity and imply that the heliocentric evolution of activity can be highly individual for every comet, and generalisations can be misleading.
Biomimicry is the art of mimicking nature to overcome a particular technical or scientific challenge. The approach studies how evolution has found solutions to the most complex problems in nature. This makes it a powerful method for science. In combination with the rapid development of manufacturing and information technologies into the digital age, structures and material that were before thought to be unrealizable can now be created with simple sketch and the touch of a button. This doctoral thesis had as its primary goal to investigate how digital tools, such as programming, modelling, 3D-Design tools and 3D-Printing, with the help from biomimicry, could lead to new analysis methods in science and new medical devices in medicine.
The Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) process is applied commonly to deform or mold hard metals that are difficult to work using normal machinery. A workpiece submerged in an electrolyte is deformed while being in close vicinity to an electrode. When high voltage is put between the workpiece and the electrode it will cause sparks that create cavitations on the substrate which in turn removes material and is flushed away by the electrolyte. Usually, such surfaces are analysed based on roughness, in this work another method using a novel curvature analysis method is presented as an alternative. In addition, to better understand how the surface changes during process time of the EDM process, a digital impact model was created which created craters on ridges on an originally flat substrate. These substrates were then analysed using the curvature analysis method at different processing times of the modelling. It was found that a substrate reaches an equilibrium at around 10000 impacts. The proposed curvature analysis method has potential to be used in the design of new cell culture substrates for stem cell.
The Venus flytrap can shut its jaws at an amazing speed. The shutting mechanism may be interesting to use in science and is an example of a so-called mechanical bi-stable system – there are two stable states. In this work two truncated pyramid structures were modelled using a non-linear mechanical model called the Chained Beam Constraint Model (CBCM). The structure with a slope angle of 30 degrees is not bi-stable and the structure with a slope angle of 45 degrees is bi-stable. Developing this idea further by using PEVA, which has a shape-memory effect, the structure which is not bi-stable could be programmed to be bi-stable and then turned off again. This could be used as an energy storage system. Another species which has interesting mechanism is the tapeworm. Some species of this animal has a crown of hooks and suckers located on its side. The parasite commonly is found in mammals in the lower intestine and attaches to the walls by using its suckers. When the tapeworm has found a suitable spot, it ejects its hooks and permanently attaches to the wall. This function could be used in minimally invasive medicine to have better control of implants during the implantation process. By using the CBCM model and a 3D-printer capable of tuning how hard or soft a printed part is, a design strategy was developed to investigate how one could create a device that mimics the tapeworm. In the end a prototype was created which was able attach to a pork loin at an under pressure of 20 kPa and to ejects its hooks at an under pressure of 50 kPa or above.
These three projects is an exhibit of how digital tools and biomimicry can be used together to come up with applicable solutions in science and in medicine.
To investigate the reliability and stability of spherical harmonic models based on archeo/-paleomagnetic data, 2000 Geomagnetic models were calculated. All models are based on the same data set but with randomized uncertainties. Comparison of these models to the geomagnetic field model gufm1 showed that large scale magnetic field structures up to spherical harmonic degree 4 are stable throughout all models. Through a ranking of all models by comparing the dipole coefficients to gufm1 more realistic uncertainty estimates were derived than the authors of the data provide.
The derived uncertainty estimates were used in further modelling, which combines archeo/-paleomagnetic and historical data. The huge difference in data count, accuracy and coverage of these two very different data sources made it necessary to introduce a time dependent spatial damping, which was constructed to constrain the spatial complexity of the model. Finally 501 models were calculated by considering that each data point is a Gaussian random variable, whose mean is the original value and whose standard deviation is its uncertainty. The final model arhimag1k is calculated by taking the mean of the 501 sets of Gauss coefficients. arhimag1k fits different dependent and independent data sets well. It shows an early reverse flux patch at the core-mantle boundary between 1000 AD and 1200 AD at the location of the South Atlantic Anomaly today. Another interesting feature is a high latitude flux patch over Greenland between 1200 and 1400 AD. The dipole moment shows a constant behaviour between 1600 and 1840 AD.
In the second part of the thesis 4 new paleointensities from 4 different flows of the island Fogo, which is part of Cape Verde, are presented. The data is fitted well by arhimag1k with the exception of the value at 1663 of 28.3 microtesla, which is approximately 10 microtesla lower than the model suggest.
Over the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates for floods occurred recently in Turkey. Despite the limited event documentation for each sector, the calibrated model yielded good results when compared to documented losses. Thus, by implementing the UNDRR method, this study provides an approach to estimate the direct economic losses in Turkey on the macro-scale, which can be used to fill gaps in event databases, support the coordination of financial aid after flood events and facilitate monitoring of the progress toward and achievement of Global Target C of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.
Borehole leakage is a common and complex issue. Understanding the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole is crucial to monitor and quantify the wellbore integrity as well as to find solutions to minimise existing leakages. In order to improve our understanding of the flow behaviour of cemented boreholes, we investigated experimental data of a large-scale borehole leakage tests by means of numerical modelling using three different conceptual models. The experiment was performed with an autoclave system consisting of two vessels bridged by a cement-filled casing. After a partial bleed-off at the well-head, a sustained casing pressure was observed due to fluid flow through the cementsteel composite. The aim of our simulations is to investigate and quantify the permeability of the cement-steel composite. From our model results, we conclude that the flow occurred along a preferential flow path at the cement-steel interface. Thus, the inner part of the cement core was impermeable during the duration of the experiment. The preferential flow path can be described as a highly permeable and highly porous area with an aperture of about 5 mu m and a permeability of 3 . 10(-12) m(2) (3 Darcy). It follows that the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole cannot be described using one permeability value for the entire cement-steel composite. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the quality of the cement and the filling process regarding the cement-steel interface is crucial to minimize possible well leakages.
Borehole leakage is a common and complex issue. Understanding the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole is crucial to monitor and quantify the wellbore integrity as well as to find solutions to minimise existing leakages. In order to improve our understanding of the flow behaviour of cemented boreholes, we investigated experimental data of a large-scale borehole leakage tests by means of numerical modelling using three different conceptual models. The experiment was performed with an autoclave system consisting of two vessels bridged by a cement-filled casing. After a partial bleed-off at the well-head, a sustained casing pressure was observed due to fluid flow through the cementsteel composite. The aim of our simulations is to investigate and quantify the permeability of the cement-steel composite. From our model results, we conclude that the flow occurred along a preferential flow path at the cement-steel interface. Thus, the inner part of the cement core was impermeable during the duration of the experiment. The preferential flow path can be described as a highly permeable and highly porous area with an aperture of about 5 mu m and a permeability of 3 . 10(-12) m(2) (3 Darcy). It follows that the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole cannot be described using one permeability value for the entire cement-steel composite. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the quality of the cement and the filling process regarding the cement-steel interface is crucial to minimize possible well leakages.
Fruits exhibit a vast array of different 3D shapes, from simple spheres and cylinders to more complex curved forms; however, the mechanism by which growth is oriented and coordinated to generate this diversity of forms is unclear. Here, we compare the growth patterns and orientations for two very different fruit shapes in the Brassicaceae: the heart-shaped Capsella rubella silicle and the near-cylindrical Arabidopsis thaliana silique. We show, through a combination of clonal and morphological analyses, that the different shapes involve different patterns of anisotropic growth during three phases. These experimental data can be accounted for by a tissue level model in which specified growth rates vary in space and time and are oriented by a proximodistal polarity field. The resulting tissue conflicts lead to deformation of the tissue as it grows. The model allows us to identify tissue-specific and temporally specific activities required to obtain the individual shapes. One such activity may be provided by the valve-identity gene FRUITFULL, which we show through comparative mutant analysis to modulate fruit shape during post-fertilisation growth of both species. Simple modulations of the model presented here can also broadly account for the variety of shapes in other Brassicaceae species, thus providing a simplified framework for fruit development and shape diversity.
Functional traits determine biomass dynamics, coexistence and energetics in plankton food webs
(2022)
Plankton food webs are the basis of marine and limnetic ecosystems. Especially aquatic ecosystems of high biodiversity provide important ecosystem services for humankind as providers of food, coastal protection, climate regulation, and tourism. Understanding the dynamics of biomass and coexistence in these food webs is a first step to understanding the ecosystems. It also lays the foundation for the development of management strategies for the maintenance of the marine and freshwater biodiversity despite anthropogenic influences.
Natural food webs are highly complex, and thus often equally complex methods are needed to analyse and understand them well. Models can help to do so as they depict simplified parts of reality. In the attempt to get a broader understanding of the complex food webs, diverse methods are used to investigate different questions.
In my first project, we compared the energetics of a food chain in two versions of an allometric trophic network model. In particular, we solved the problem of unrealistically high trophic transfer efficiencies (up to 70%) by accounting for both basal respiration and activity respiration, which decreased the trophic transfer efficiency to realistic values of ≤30%. Next in my second project I turned to plankton food webs and especially phytoplankton traits. Investigating a long-term data set from Lake Constance we found evidence for a trade-off between defence and growth rate in this natural phytoplankton community. I continued working with this data set in my third project focusing on ciliates, the main grazer of phytoplankton in spring. Boosted regression trees revealed that temperature and predators have the highest influence on net growth rates of ciliates. We finally investigated in my fourth project a food web model inspired by ciliates to explore the coexistence of plastic competitors and to study the new concept of maladaptive switching, which revealed some drawbacks of plasticity: faster adaptation led to higher maladaptive switching towards undefended phenotypes which reduced autotroph biomass and coexistence and increased consumer biomass.
It became obvious that even well-established models should be critically questioned as it is important not to forget reality on the way to a simplistic model. The results showed furthermore that long-term data sets are necessary as they can help to disentangle complex natural processes. Last, one should keep in mind that the interplay between models and experiments/ field data can deliver fruitful insights about our complex world.
The Central Asian Pamir Mountains (Pamirs) are a high-altitude region sensitive to climatic change, with only few paleoclimatic records available. To examine the glacial-interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analyzed the geochemical parameters of a 31-kyr record from Lake Karakul and performed a set of experiments with climate models to interpret the results. delta D values of terrestrial biomarkers showed insolation-driven trends reflecting major shifts of water vapor sources. For aquatic biomarkers, positive delta D shifts driven by changes in precipitation seasonality were observed at ca. 31-30, 28-26, and 17-14 kyr BP. Multiproxy paleoecological data and modelling results suggest that increased water availability, induced by decreased summer evaporation, triggered higher lake levels during those episodes, possibly synchronous to northern hemispheric rapid climate events. We conclude that seasonal changes in precipitation-evaporation balance significantly influenced the hydrological state of a large waterbody such as Lake Karakul, while annual precipitation amount and inflows remained fairly constant.
Zwischen 1990 und 1994 wurden rund 1000 Liegenschaften, die in der ehemaligen DDR von der Sowjetarmee und der NVA für militärische Übungen genutzt wurden, an Bund und Länder übergeben. Die größten Truppenübungsplätze liegen in Brandenburg und sind heute teilweise in Großschutzgebiete integriert, andere Plätze werden von der Bundeswehr weiterhin aktiv genutzt. Aufgrund des militärischen Betriebs sind die Böden dieser Truppenübungsplätze oft durch Blindgänger, Munitionsreste, Treibstoff- und Schmierölreste bis hin zu chemischen Kampfstoffen belastet. Allerdings existieren auf fast allen Liegenschaften neben diesen durch Munition und militärische Übungen belasteten Bereichen auch naturschutzfachlich wertvolle Flächen; gerade in den Offenlandbereichen kann dies durchaus mit einer Belastung durch Kampfmittel einhergehen. Charakteristisch für diese offenen Flächen, zu denen u.a. Zwergstrauchheiden, Trockenrasen, wüstenähnliche Sandflächen und andere nährstoffarme baumlose Lebensräume gehören, sind Großflächigkeit, Abgeschiedenheit sowie ihre besondere Nutzung und Bewirtschaftung, d.h. die Abwesenheit von land- und forstwirtschaftlichem Betrieb sowie von Siedlungsflächen. Diese Charakteristik war die Grundlage für die Entwicklung einer speziell angepassten Flora und Fauna. Nach Beendigung des Militärbetriebs setzte dann in weiten Teilen eine großflächige Sukzession – die allmähliche Veränderung der Zusammensetzung von Pflanzen- und Tiergesellschaften – ein, die diese offenen Bereiche teilweise bereits in Wald verwandelte und somit verschwinden ließ. Dies wiederum führte zum Verlust der an diese Offenlandflächen gebundenen Tier- und Pflanzenarten. Zur Erhaltung, Gestaltung und Entwicklung dieser offenen Flächen wurden daher von einer interdisziplinären Gruppe von Naturwissenschaftlern verschiedene Methoden und Konzepte auf ihre jeweilige Wirksamkeit untersucht. So konnten schließlich die für die jeweiligen Standortbedingungen geeigneten Maßnahmen eingeleitet werden. Voraussetzung für die Einleitung der Maßnahmen sind zum einen Kenntnisse zu diesen jeweiligen Standortbedingungen, d.h. zum Ist-Zustand, sowie zur Entwicklung der Flächen, d.h. zur Dynamik. So kann eine Abschätzung über die zukünftige Flächenentwicklung getroffen werden, damit ein effizienter Maßnahmeneinsatz stattfinden kann. Geoinformationssysteme (GIS) spielen dabei eine entscheidende Rolle zur digitalen Dokumentation der Biotop- und Nutzungstypen, da sie die Möglichkeit bieten, raum- und zeitbezogene Geometrie- und Sachdaten in großen Mengen zu verarbeiten. Daher wurde ein fachspezifisches GIS für Truppenübungsplätze entwickelt und implementiert. Die Aufgaben umfassten die Konzeption der Datenbank und des Objektmodells sowie fachspezifischer Modellierungs-, Analyse- und Präsentationsfunktionen. Für die Integration von Fachdaten in die GIS-Datenbank wurde zudem ein Metadatenkatalog entwickelt, der in Form eines zusätzlichen GIS-Tools verfügbar ist. Die Basisdaten für das GIS wurden aus Fernerkundungsdaten, topographischen Karten sowie Geländekartierungen gewonnen. Als Instrument für die Abschätzung der zukünftigen Entwicklung wurde das Simulationstool AST4D entwickelt, in dem sowohl die Nutzung der (Raster-)Daten des GIS als Ausgangsdaten für die Simulationen als auch die Nutzung der Simulationsergebnisse im GIS möglich ist. Zudem können die Daten in AST4D raumbezogen visualisiert werden. Das mathematische Konstrukt für das Tool war ein so genannter Zellulärer Automat, mit dem die Flächenentwicklung unter verschiedenen Voraussetzungen simuliert werden kann. So war die Bildung verschiedener Szenarien möglich, d.h. die Simulation der Flächenentwicklung mit verschiedenen (bekannten) Eingangsparametern und den daraus resultierenden unterschiedlichen (unbekannten) Endzuständen. Vor der Durchführung einer der drei in AST4D möglichen Simulationsstufen können angepasst an das jeweilige Untersuchungsgebiet benutzerspezifische Festlegungen getroffen werden.
The southern Central Andes (SCA) (between 27 degrees S and 40 degrees S) is bordered to the west by the convergent margin between the continental South American Plate and the oceanic Nazca Plate. The subduction angle along this margin is variable, as is the deformation of the upper plate. Between 33 degrees S and 35 degrees S, the subduction angle of the Nazca plate increases from sub-horizontal (< 5 degrees) in the north to relatively steep (similar to 30 degrees) in the south. The SCA contain inherited lithological and structural heterogeneities within the crust that have been reactivated and overprinted since the onset of subduction and associated Cenozoic deformation within the Andean orogen. The distribution of the deformation within the SCA has often been attributed to the variations in the subduction angle and the reactivation of these inherited heterogeneities. However, the possible influence that the thickness and composition of the continental crust have had on both short-term and long-term deformation of the SCA is yet to be thoroughly investigated. For our investigations, we have derived density distributions and thicknesses for various layers that make up the lithosphere and evaluated their relationships with tectonic events that occurred over the history of the Andean orogeny and, in particular, investigated the short- and long-term nature of the present-day deformation processes. We established a 3D model of lithosphere beneath the orogen and its foreland (29 degrees S-39 degrees S) that is consistent with currently available geological and geophysical data, including the gravity data. The modelled crustal configuration and density distribution reveal spatial relationships with different tectonic domains: the crystalline crust in the orogen (the magmatic arc and the main orogenic wedge) is thicker (similar to 55 km) and less dense (similar to 2900 kg/m(3)) than in the forearc (similar to 35 km, similar to 2975 kg/m(3)) and foreland (similar to 30 km, similar to 3000 kg/m(3)). Crustal thickening in the orogen probably occurred as a result of stacking of low-density domains, while density and thickness variations beneath the forearc and foreland most likely reflect differences in the tectonic evolution of each area following crustal accretion. No clear spatial relationship exists between the density distribution within the lithosphere and previously proposed boundaries of crustal terranes accreted during the early Paleozoic. Areas with ongoing deformation show a spatial correlation with those areas that have the highest topographic gradients and where there are abrupt changes in the average crustal-density contrast. This suggests that the short-term deformation within the interior of the Andean orogen and its foreland is fundamentally influenced by the crustal composition and the relative thickness of different crustal layers. A thicker, denser, and potentially stronger lithosphere beneath the northern part of the SCA foreland is interpreted to have favoured a strong coupling between the Nazca and South American plates, facilitating the development of a sub-horizontal slab.
The southern Central Andes (SCA) (between 27 degrees S and 40 degrees S) is bordered to the west by the convergent margin between the continental South American Plate and the oceanic Nazca Plate. The subduction angle along this margin is variable, as is the deformation of the upper plate. Between 33 degrees S and 35 degrees S, the subduction angle of the Nazca plate increases from sub-horizontal (< 5 degrees) in the north to relatively steep (similar to 30 degrees) in the south. The SCA contain inherited lithological and structural heterogeneities within the crust that have been reactivated and overprinted since the onset of subduction and associated Cenozoic deformation within the Andean orogen. The distribution of the deformation within the SCA has often been attributed to the variations in the subduction angle and the reactivation of these inherited heterogeneities. However, the possible influence that the thickness and composition of the continental crust have had on both short-term and long-term deformation of the SCA is yet to be thoroughly investigated. For our investigations, we have derived density distributions and thicknesses for various layers that make up the lithosphere and evaluated their relationships with tectonic events that occurred over the history of the Andean orogeny and, in particular, investigated the short- and long-term nature of the present-day deformation processes. We established a 3D model of lithosphere beneath the orogen and its foreland (29 degrees S-39 degrees S) that is consistent with currently available geological and geophysical data, including the gravity data. The modelled crustal configuration and density distribution reveal spatial relationships with different tectonic domains: the crystalline crust in the orogen (the magmatic arc and the main orogenic wedge) is thicker (similar to 55 km) and less dense (similar to 2900 kg/m(3)) than in the forearc (similar to 35 km, similar to 2975 kg/m(3)) and foreland (similar to 30 km, similar to 3000 kg/m(3)). Crustal thickening in the orogen probably occurred as a result of stacking of low-density domains, while density and thickness variations beneath the forearc and foreland most likely reflect differences in the tectonic evolution of each area following crustal accretion. No clear spatial relationship exists between the density distribution within the lithosphere and previously proposed boundaries of crustal terranes accreted during the early Paleozoic. Areas with ongoing deformation show a spatial correlation with those areas that have the highest topographic gradients and where there are abrupt changes in the average crustal-density contrast. This suggests that the short-term deformation within the interior of the Andean orogen and its foreland is fundamentally influenced by the crustal composition and the relative thickness of different crustal layers. A thicker, denser, and potentially stronger lithosphere beneath the northern part of the SCA foreland is interpreted to have favoured a strong coupling between the Nazca and South American plates, facilitating the development of a sub-horizontal slab.
Water shortage is a serious threat for many societies worldwide. In drylands, water management measures like the construction of reservoirs are affected by eroded sediments transported in the rivers. Thus, the capability of assessing water and sediment fluxes at the river basin scale is of vital importance to support management decisions and policy making. This subject was addressed by the DFG-funded SESAM-project (Sediment Export from large Semi-Arid catchments: Measurements and Modelling). As a part of this project, this thesis focuses on (1) the development and implementation of an erosion module for a meso-scale catchment model, (2) the development of upscaling and generalization methods for the parameterization of such model, (3) the execution of measurements to obtain data required for the modelling and (4) the application of the model to different study areas and its evaluation. The research was carried out in two meso-scale dryland catchments in NE-Spain: Ribera Salada (200 km²) and Isábena (450 km²). Adressing objective 1, WASA-SED, a spatially semi-distributed model for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale was developed. The model simulates runoff and erosion processes at the hillslope scale, transport processes of suspended and bedload fluxes in the river reaches, and retention and remobilisation processes of sediments in reservoirs. This thesis introduces the model concept, presents current model applications and discusses its capabilities and limitations. Modelling at larger scales faces the dilemma of describing relevant processes while maintaining a manageable demand for input data and computation time. WASA-SED addresses this challenge by employing an innovative catena-based upscaling approach: the landscape is represented by characteristic toposequences. For deriving these toposequences with regard to multiple attributes (eg. topography, soils, vegetation) the LUMP-algorithm (Landscape Unit Mapping Program) was developed and related to objective 2. It incorporates an algorithm to retrieve representative catenas and their attributes, based on a Digital Elevation Model and supplemental spatial data. These catenas are classified to provide the discretization for the WASA-SED model. For objective 3, water and sediment fluxes were monitored at the catchment outlet of the Isábena and some of its sub-catchments. For sediment yield estimation, the intermittent measurements of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) had to be interpolated. This thesis presents a comparison of traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs), generalized linear models (GLMs) and non-parametric regression using Random Forests (RF) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF). The observed SSCs are highly variable and range over six orders of magnitude. For these data, traditional SRCs performed poorly, as did GLMs, despite including other relevant process variables (e.g. rainfall intensities, discharge characteristics). RF and QRF proved to be very robust and performed favourably for reproducing sediment dynamics. QRF additionally excels in providing estimates on the accuracy of the predictions. Subsequent analysis showed that most of the sediment was exported during intense storms of late summer. Later floods yielded successively less sediment. Comparing sediment generation to yield at the outlet suggested considerable storage effects within the river channel. Addressing objective 4, the WASA-SED model was parameterized for the two study areas in NE Spain and applied with different foci. For Ribera Salada, the uncalibrated model yielded reasonable results for runoff and sediment. It provided quantitative measures of the change in runoff and sediment yield for different land-uses. Additional land management scenarios were presented and compared to impacts caused by climate change projections. In contrast, the application for the Isábena focussed on exploring the full potential of the model's predictive capabilities. The calibrated model achieved an acceptable performance for the validation period in terms of water and sediment fluxes. The inadequate representation of the lower sub-catchments inflicted considerable reductions on model performance, while results for the headwater catchments showed good agreement despite stark contrasts in sediment yield. In summary, the application of WASA-SED to three catchments proved the model framework to be a practicable multi-scale approach. It successfully links the hillslope to the catchment scale and integrates the three components hillslope, river and reservoir in one model. Thus, it provides a feasible approach for tackling issues of water and sediment yield at the meso-scale. The crucial role of processes like transmission losses and sediment storage in the river has been identified. Further advances can be expected when the representation of connectivity of water and sediment fluxes (intra-hillslope, hillslope-river, intra-river) is refined and input data improves.
Continental rift systems open up unique possibilities to study the geodynamic system of our planet: geodynamic localization processes are imprinted in the morphology of the rift by governing the time-dependent activity of faults, the topographic evolution of the rift or by controlling whether a rift is symmetric or asymmetric. Since lithospheric necking localizes strain towards the rift centre, deformation structures of previous rift phases are often well preserved and passive margins, the end product of continental rifting, retain key information about the tectonic history from rift inception to continental rupture.
Current understanding of continental rift evolution is based on combining observations from active rifts with data collected at rifted margins. Connecting these isolated data sets is often accomplished in a conceptual way and leaves room for subjective interpretation. Geodynamic forward models, however, have the potential to link individual data sets in a quantitative manner, using additional constraints from rock mechanics and rheology, which allows to transcend previous conceptual models of rift evolution. By quantifying geodynamic processes within continental rifts, numerical modelling allows key insight to tectonic processes that operate also in other plate boundary settings, such as mid ocean ridges, collisional mountain chains or subduction zones.
In this thesis, I combine numerical, plate-tectonic, analytical, and analogue modelling approaches, whereas numerical thermomechanical modelling constitutes the primary tool. This method advanced rapidly during the last two decades owing to dedicated software development and the availability of massively parallel computer facilities. Nevertheless, only recently the geodynamical modelling community was able to capture 3D lithospheric-scale rift dynamics from onset of extension to final continental rupture.
The first chapter of this thesis provides a broad introduction to continental rifting, a summary of the applied rift modelling methods and a short overview of previews studies. The following chapters, which constitute the main part of this thesis feature studies on plate boundary dynamics in two and three dimension followed by global scale analyses (Fig. 1).
Chapter II focuses on 2D geodynamic modelling of rifted margin formation. It highlights the formation of wide areas of hyperextended crustal slivers via rift migration as a key process that affected many rifted margins worldwide. This chapter also contains a study of rift velocity evolution, showing that rift strength loss and extension velocity are linked through a dynamic feed-back. This process results in abrupt accelerations of the involved plates during rifting illustrating for the first time that rift dynamics plays a role in changing global-scale plate motions. Since rift velocity affects key processes like faulting, melting and lower crustal flow, this study also implies that the slow-fast velocity evolution should be imprinted in rifted margin structures.
Chapter III relies on 3D Cartesian rift models in order to investigate various aspects of rift obliquity. Oblique rifting occurs if the extension direction is not orthogonal to the rift trend. Using 3D lithospheric-scale models from rift initialisation to breakup I could isolate a characteristic evolution of dominant fault orientations. Further work in Chapter III addresses the impact of rift obliquity on the strength of the rift system. We illustrate that oblique rifting is mechanically preferred over orthogonal rifting, because the brittle yielding requires a lower tectonic force. This mechanism elucidates rift competition during South Atlantic rifting, where the more oblique Equatorial Atlantic Rift proceeded to breakup while the simultaneously active but less oblique West African rift system became a failed rift. Finally this Chapter also investigates the impact of a previous rift phase on current tectonic activity in the linkage area of the Kenyan with Ethiopian rift. We show that the along strike changes in rift style are not caused by changes in crustal rheology. Instead the rift linkage pattern in this area can be explained when accounting for the thinned crust and lithosphere of a Mesozoic rift event.
Chapter IV investigates rifting from the global perspective. A first study extends the oblique rift topic of the previous chapter to global scale by investigating the frequency of oblique rifting during the last 230 million years. We find that approximately 70% of all ocean-forming rift segments involved an oblique component of extension where obliquities exceed 20°. This highlights the relevance of 3D approaches in modelling, surveying, and interpretation of many rifted margins. In a final study, we propose a link between continental rift activity, diffuse CO2 degassing and Mesozoic/Cenozoic climate changes. We used recent CO2 flux measurements in continental rifts to estimate worldwide rift-related CO2 release, which we based on the global extent of rifts through time. The first-order correlation to paleo-atmospheric CO2 proxy data suggests that rifts constitute a major element of the global carbon cycle.
Chemical transformations and hydraulic processes in soil and groundwater often lead to an apparent retention of nitrate in lowland catchments. Models are needed to evaluate the interaction of these processes in space and time. The objectives of this study are i) to develop a specific modelling approach by combining selected modelling tools simulating N-transport and turnover in soils and groundwater of lowland catchments, ii) to study interactions between catchment properties and nitrogen transport. Special attention was paid to potential N-loads to surface waters. The modelling approach combines various submodels for water flow and solute transport in soil and groundwater: The soil-water- and nitrogen-model mRISK-N, the groundwater flow model MODFLOW and the solute transport model RT3D. In order to investigate interactions of N-transport and catchment characteristics, the distribution and availability of reaction partners have to be taken into account. Therefore, a special reaction-module is developed, which simulates various chemical processes in groundwater, such as the degradation of organic matter by oxygen, nitrate, sulphate or pyrite oxidation by oxygen and nitrate. The model approach is applied to different simulation, focussing on specific submodels. All simulation studies are based on field data from the Schaugraben catchment, a pleistocene catchment of approximately 25 km², close to Osterburg(Altmark) in the North of Saxony-Anhalt. The following modelling studies have been carried out: i) evaluation of the soil-water- and nitrogen-model based on lysimeter data, ii) modelling of a field scale tracer experiment on nitrate transport and turnover in the groundwater as a first application of the reaction module, iii) evaluation of interactions between hydraulic and chemical aquifer properties in a two-dimensional groundwater transect, iv) modelling of distributed groundwater recharge and soil nitrogen leaching in the study area, to be used as input data for subsequent groundwater simulations, v) study of groundwater nitrate distribution and nitrate breakthrough to the surface water system in the Schaugraben catchment area and a subcatchment, using three-dimensional modelling of reactive groundwater transport. The various model applications prove the model to be capable of simulating interactions between transport, turnover and hydraulic and chemical catchment properties. The distribution of nitrate in the sediment and the resulting loads to surface waters are strongly affected by the amount of reactive substances and by the residence time within the aquifer. In the Schaugraben catchment simulations, it is found that a period of 70 years is needed to raise the average seepage concentrations of nitrate to a level corresponding to the given input situation, if no reactions are considered. Under reactive transport conditions, nitrate concentrations are reduced effectively. Simulation results show that groundwater exfiltration does not contribute considerably to the nitrate pollution of surface waters, as most nitrate entering soils and groundwater is lost by denitrification. Additional sources, such as direct inputs or tile drains have to be taken into account to explain surface water loads. The prognostic value of the models for the study site is limited by uncertainties of input data and estimation of model parameters. Nevertheless, the modelling approach is a useful aid for the identification of source and sink areas of nitrate pollution as well as the investigation of system response to management measures or landuse changes with scenario simulations. The modelling approach assists in the interpretation of observed data, as it allows to integrate local observations into a spatial and temporal framework.