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Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming.
We report on light sensitive microgel particles that can change their volume reversibly in response to illumination with light of different wavelengths. To make the anionic microgels photosensitive we add surfactants with a positively charged polyamine head group and an azobenzene containing tail. Upon illumination, azobenzene undergoes a reversible photo-isomerization reaction from a trans- to a cis-state accompanied by a change in the hydrophobicity of the surfactant. Depending on the isomerization state, the surfactant molecules are either accommodated within the microgel (trans-state) resulting in its shrinkage or desorbed back into water (cis-isomer) letting the microgel swell. We have studied three surfactants differing in the number of amino groups, so that the number of charges of the surfactant head varies between 1 and 3. We have found experimentally and theoretically that the surfactant concentration needed for microgel compaction increases with decreasing number of charges of the head group. Utilization of polyamine azobenzene containing surfactants for the light triggered remote control of the microgel size opens up a possibility for applications of light responsive microgels as drug carriers in biology and medicine.
Low-cost monitoring of snow height and thermal properties with inexpensive temperature sensors
(2011)
Small, self-recording temperature sensors were installed at several heights along a metal rod at five locations in a case study catchment. For each sensor, the presence or absence of snow cover was determined on the basis of its insulating effect and the resulting reduction of the diurnal temperature oscillations. Sensor coverage was then converted into a time series of snow height for each location. Additionally, cold content was calculated. Snow height and cold content provide valuable information for spring flood prediction.
Good agreement of estimated snow heights with reference measurements was achieved and increased discharge in the study catchment coincided with low cold content of the snow cover. The results of the proposed distributed assessment of snow cover and snow state show great potential for (i) flood warning, (ii) assimilation of snow state data and (iii) modelling snowmelt process.
Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.
Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.
Rising temperatures in the Arctic affect soil microorganisms, herbivores, and peatland vegetation, thus directly and indirectly influencing microbial CH4 production. It is not currently known how methanotrophs in Arctic peat respond to combined changes in temperature, CH4 concentration, and vegetation. We studied methanotroph responses to temperature and CH4 concentration in peat exposed to herbivory and protected by exclosures. The methanotroph activity was assessed by CH4 oxidation rate measurements using peat soil microcosms and a pure culture of Methylobacter tundripaludum SV96, qPCR, and sequencing of pmoA transcripts. Elevated CH4 concentrations led to higher CH4 oxidation rates both in grazed and exclosed peat soils, but the strongest response was observed in grazed peat soils. Furthermore, the relative transcriptional activities of different methanotroph community members were affected by the CH4 concentrations. While transcriptional responses to low CH4 concentrations were more prevalent in grazed peat soils, responses to high CH4 concentrations were more prevalent in exclosed peat soils. We observed no significant methanotroph responses to increasing temperatures. We conclude that methanotroph communities in these peat soils respond to changes in the CH4 concentration depending on their previous exposure to grazing. This "conditioning " influences which strains will thrive and, therefore, determines the function of the methanotroph community.
Aim Seed banks are central to the regeneration strategy of many plant species. Any factor altering seed bank density thus affects plant regeneration and population dynamics. Although seed banks are dynamic entities controlled by multiple environmental drivers, climatic factors are the most comprehensive, but still poorly understood. This study investigates how climatic variation structures seed production and resulting seed bank patterns.
Location Temperate forests along a 1900km latitudinal gradient in north-western (NW) Europe.
Methods Seed production and seed bank density were quantified in 153 plots along the gradient for four forest herbs with different seed longevity: Geum urbanum, Milium effusum, Poa nemoralis and Stachys sylvatica. We tested the importance of climatic and local environmental factors in shaping seed production and seed bank density.
Results Seed production was determined by population size, and not by climatic factors. G.urbanum and M.effusum seed bank density declined with decreasing temperature (growing degree days) and/or increasing temperature range (maximum-minimum temperature). P.nemoralis and S.sylvatica seed bank density were limited by population size and not by climatic variables. Seed bank density was also influenced by other, local environmental factors such as soil pH or light availability. Different seed bank patterns emerged due to differential seed longevities. Species with long-lived seeds maintained constant seed bank densities by counteracting the reduced chance of regular years with high seed production at colder northern latitudes.
Main conclusions Seed bank patterns show clear interspecific variation in response to climate across the distribution range. Not all seed banking species may be as well equipped to buffer climate change via their seed bank, notably in short-term persistent species. Since the buffering capacity of seed banks is key to species persistence, these results provide crucial information to advance climatic change predictions on range shifts, community and biodiversity responses.
The understanding of environmentally induced changes in the biochemical composition of phytoplankton species is of great importance in both physiological studies and ecological food web research. In extensive laboratory experiments we tested the influence of two different temperatures (10 degrees C and 25 degrees C) and a phosphorus supply gradient on the sterol concentrations of the three freshwater phytoplankton species Scenedesmus quadricauda, Cryptomonas ovata and Cyclotella meneghiniana. The diatom C. meneghiniana was additionally exposed to a silicate gradient. In two separate experiments we analysed (1) possible interactive effects of temperature and phosphorus supply and (2) the effect of four phosphorus levels and three silicate levels on algal sterol concentrations. We observed that sterol concentrations were higher at 25 degrees C than at 10 degrees C in S. quadricauda and C. meneghiniana, but were not affected by temperature in C. ovata. Interactive effects of temperature and phosphorus supply on sterol concentrations were found in C. meneghiniana. This presumably was due to the bioconversion of one sterol (24-methylenecholesterol) into another (22-dihydrobrassicasterol). Increasing phosphorus supply resulted in species-specific effects on sterol concentrations, viz. an optimum curve response in S. quadricauda, a saturation curve response in C. meneghiniana and no change in sterol concentration in C. ovata. Effects of silicate supply on the sterols of C. meneghiniana equalled the effects of phosphorus supply. Albeit we did not observe a general trend in the three phytoplankton species tested, we conclude that sterol concentrations of phytoplankton are strongly affected by temperature and nutrient supply. Interactive effects point out the importance of taking into account more than just one environmental factor when assessing the effects of environmentally induced changes on phytoplankton sterol concentrations.
We tested, in the laboratory, the influence of light intensity, temperature, and phosphorus (P) supply on fatty acid (FA) concentrations of four freshwater algae: the green algae Scenedesmus quadricauda (Turpin) Breb. and Chlamydomonas globosa J. Snow, the cryptophyte Cryptomonas ovata Ehrenb., and the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana Kutz. We investigated the main and interactive effects of two variables on algal FA concentrations (i.e., light intensity and P supply or temperature and P supply). Interactive effects of light intensity and P supply were most pronounced in C. meneghiniana, but were also found in S. quadricauda and C. ovata. Changes in several saturated and unsaturated FA concentrations with light were more distinct in the low-P treatments than in the high-P treatments. Interactive effects of temperature and P supply on various FA concentrations were observed in all four species, but there was no consistent pattern. In lake ecosystems, P limitation often coincides with high light intensities and temperatures in summer. Therefore, it is important to examine how combinations of these environmental conditions affect FA concentrations of primary producers that are important sources of FAs for higher trophic levels.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.
The functioning of the surface water-groundwater interface as buffer, filter and reactive zone is important for water quality, ecological health and resilience of streams and riparian ecosystems. Solute and heat exchange across this interface is driven by the advection of water. Characterizing the flow conditions in the streambed is challenging as flow patterns are often complex and multidimensional, driven by surface hydraulic gradients and groundwater discharge. This thesis presents the results of an integrated approach of studies, ranging from the acquisition of field data, the development of analytical and numerical approaches to analyse vertical temperature profiles to the detailed, fully-integrated 3D numerical modelling of water and heat flux at the reach scale. All techniques were applied in order to characterize exchange flux between stream and groundwater, hyporheic flow paths and temperature patterns.
The study was conducted at a reach-scale section of the lowland Selke River, characterized by distinctive pool riffle sequences and fluvial islands and gravel bars. Continuous time series of hydraulic heads and temperatures were measured at different depths in the river bank, the hyporheic zone and within the river. The analyses of the measured diurnal temperature variation in riverbed sediments provided detailed information about the exchange flux between river and groundwater. Beyond the one-dimensional vertical water flow in the riverbed sediment, hyporheic and parafluvial flow patterns were identified. Subsurface flow direction and magnitude around fluvial islands and gravel bars at the study site strongly depended on the position around the geomorphological structures and on the river stage. Horizontal water flux in the streambed substantially impacted temperature patterns in the streambed. At locations with substantial horizontal fluxes the penetration depths of daily temperature fluctuations was reduced in comparison to purely vertical exchange conditions.
The calibrated and validated 3D fully-integrated model of reach-scale water and heat fluxes across the river-groundwater interface was able to accurately represent the real system. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. The simulation results showed that the water and heat exchange at the surface water-groundwater interface is highly variable in space and time with zones of daily temperature oscillations penetrating deep into the sediment and spots of daily constant temperature following the average groundwater temperature. The average hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly correlate with the flow path residence time (flow path length) and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater. Despite the complexity of these processes, the simulation results allowed the derivation of a general empirical relationship between the hyporheic residence times and temperature patterns. The presented results improve our understanding of the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of water flux and thermal processes within the shallow streambed. Understanding these links provides a general basis from which to assess hyporheic temperature conditions in river reaches.
A rare example of in situ linker generation with the formation of soft porous Zn- and Co-MOFs (IFP-9 and -10, respectively) is reported. The flexible ethoxy groups of IFP-9 and -10 protrude into the 1D hexagonal channels. The gas-sorption behavior of both materials for H2, CO2 and CH4 showed wide hysteretic isotherms, typical for MOFs having a flexible substituent which can give rise to a gate effect.
This paper presents an experimental procedure for the characterization of the granitic rocks on a Mars-like environment. To gain a better understanding of the drilling conditions on Mars, the dynamic tensile behavior of the two granitic rocks was studied using the Brazilian disc test and a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar. The room temperature tests were performed on the specimens, which had gone through thermal cycling between room temperature and - 70 degrees C for 0, 10, 15, and 20 cycles. In addition, the high strain rate Brazilian disc tests were carried out on the samples without the thermal cyclic loading at test temperatures of - 30 degrees C, - 50 degrees C, and - 70 degrees C. Microscopy results show that the rocks with different microstructures respond differently to cyclic thermal loading. However, decreasing the test temperature leads to an increasing in the tensile strength of both studied rocks, and the softening of the rocks is observed for both rocks as the temperature reaches - 70 degrees C. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the effects of the thermal cyclic loading and temperature on the mechanical behavior of studied rocks in the Mars-like environment. The results of this work will bring new insight into the mechanical response of rock material in extreme environments.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
We present a systematic study on the properties of Na(Y,Gd)F-4-based upconverting nanoparticles (UCNP) doped with 18% Yb3+, 2% Tm3+, and the influence of Gd3+ (10-50 mol% Gd3+). UCNP were synthesized via the solvothermal method and had a range of diameters within 13 and 50 nm. Structural and photophysical changes were monitored for the UCNP samples after a 24-month incubation period in dry phase and further redispersion. Structural characterization was performed by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) as well as dynamic light scattering (DLS), and the upconversion luminescence (UCL) studies were executed at various temperatures (from 4 to 295 K) using time-resolved and steady-state spectroscopy. An increase in the hexagonal lattice phase with the increase of Gd3+ content was found, although the cubic phase was prevalent in most samples. The Tm3+-luminescence intensity as well as the Tm3+-luminescence decay times peaked at the Gd3+ concentration of 30 mol%. Although the general upconverting luminescence properties of the nanoparticles were preserved, the 24-month incubation period lead to irreversible agglomeration of the UCNP and changes in luminescence band ratios and lifetimes.
Late Holocene glacier variations in westernmost Tibetan Plateau were studied based on the analysis of grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and elements from an 8.3m long distal glaciolacustrine sediment core of Kalakuli Lake. Our results show that there are four glacier expansion episodes occurring in 4200-3700calibrated years (cal years) B.P., 2950-2300cal years B.P., 1700-1070cal years B.P., and 570-100cal years B.P. and four glacier retreat periods of 3700-2950cal years B.P., 2300-1700cal years B.P., 1070-570cal years B.P., and 50cal years B.P.-present. The four glacier expansion episodes are generally in agreement with the glacier activities indicted by the moraines at Muztagh Ata and Kongur Shan, as well as with the late Holocene ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic. Over the last 2000years, our reconstructed glacier variations are in temporal agreement with reconstructed temperature from China and the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that glacier variations at centennial time scales are very sensitive to temperature in western Tibetan Plateau.
The genus Shewanella is well known for its genetic diversity, its outstanding respiratory capacity, and its high potential for bioremediation. Here, a novel strain isolated from sediments of the Indian Ocean was characterized. A 16S rRNA analysis indicated that it belongs to the species Shewanella decolorationis. It was named Shewanella decolorationis LDS1. This strain presented an unusual ability to grow efficiently at temperatures from 24 degrees C to 40 degrees C without apparent modifications of its metabolism, as shown by testing respiratory activities or carbon assimilation, and in a wide range of salt concentrations. Moreover, S. decolorationis LDS1 tolerates high chromate concentrations. Indeed, it was able to grow in the presence of 4 mM chromate at 28 degrees C and 3 mM chromate at 40 degrees C. Interestingly, whatever the temperature, when the culture reached the stationary phase, the strain reduced the chromate present in the growth medium. In addition, S. decolorationis LDS1 degrades different toxic dyes, including anthraquinone, triarylmethane, and azo dyes. Thus, compared to Shewanella oneidensis, this strain presented better capacity to cope with various abiotic stresses, particularly at high temperatures. The analysis of genome sequence preliminary data indicated that, in contrast to S. oneidensis and S. decolorationis S12, S. decolorationis LDS1 possesses the phosphorothioate modification machinery that has been described as participating in survival against various abiotic stresses by protecting DNA. We demonstrate that its heterologous production in S. oneidensis allows it to resist higher concentrations of chromate. IMPORTANCE Shewanella species have long been described as interesting microorganisms in regard to their ability to reduce many organic and inorganic compounds, including metals. However, members of the Shewanella genus are often depicted as cold-water microorganisms, although their optimal growth temperature usually ranges from 25 to 28 degrees C under laboratory growth conditions. Shewanella decolorationis LDS1 is highly attractive, since its metabolism allows it to develop efficiently at temperatures from 24 to 40 degrees C, conserving its ability to respire alternative substrates and to reduce toxic compounds such as chromate or toxic dyes. Our results clearly indicate that this novel strain has the potential to be a powerful tool for bioremediation and unveil one of the mechanisms involved in its chromate resistance.
Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.