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Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.
Identifying the entirety of gene regulatory interactions in a biological system offers the possibility to determine the key molecular factors that affect important traits on the level of cells, tissues, and whole organisms. Despite the development of experimental approaches and technologies for identification of direct binding of transcription factors (TFs) to promoter regions of downstream target genes, computational approaches that utilize large compendia of transcriptomics data are still the predominant methods used to predict direct downstream targets of TFs, and thus reconstruct genome-wide gene-regulatory networks (GRNs). These approaches can broadly be categorized into unsupervised and supervised, based on whether data about known, experimentally verified gene-regulatory interactions are used in the process of reconstructing the underlying GRN. Here, we first describe the generic steps of supervised approaches for GRN reconstruction, since they have been recently shown to result in improved accuracy of the resulting networks? We also illustrate how they can be used with data from model organisms to obtain more accurate prediction of gene regulatory interactions.