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Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.
Aim: Across the planet, grass-dominated biomes are experiencing shrub encroachment driven by atmospheric CO2 enrichment and land-use change. By altering resource structure and availability, shrub encroachment may have important impacts on vertebrate communities. We sought to determine the magnitude and variability of these effects across climatic gradients, continents, and taxa, and to learn whether shrub thinning restores the structure of vertebrate communities. Location: Worldwide. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial vertebrates. Methods: We estimated relationships between percentage shrub cover and the structure of terrestrial vertebrate communities (species richness, Shannon diversity and community abundance) in experimentally thinned and unmanipulated shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes using systematic review and meta-analyses of 43 studies published from 1978 to 2016. We modelled the effects of continent, biome, mean annual precipitation, net primary productivity and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the relationship between shrub cover and vertebrate community structure. Results: Species richness, Shannon diversity and total abundance had no consistent relationship with shrub encroachment and experimental thinning did not reverse encroachment effects on vertebrate communities. However, some effects of shrub encroachment on vertebrate communities differed with net primary productivity, amongst vertebrate groups, and across continents. Encroachment had negative effects on vertebrate diversity at low net primary productivity. Mammalian and herpetofaunal diversity decreased with shrub encroachment. Shrub encroachment also had negative effects on species richness and total abundance in Africa but positive effects in North America. Main conclusions: Biodiversity conservation and mitigation efforts responding to shrub encroachment should focus on low-productivity locations, on mammals and herpetofauna, and in Africa. However, targeted research in neglected regions such as central Asia and India will be needed to fill important gaps in our knowledge of shrub encroachment effects on vertebrates. Additionally, our findings provide an impetus for determining the mechanisms associated with changes in vertebrate diversity and abundance in shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes.