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Background and aims: Accurate and user-friendly assessment tools quantifying alcohol consumption are a prerequisite to effective prevention and treatment programmes, including Screening and Brief Intervention. Digital tools offer new potential in this field. We developed the ‘Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool’ (AAA-Tool), a mobile app providing an interactive version of the World Health Organization's Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) that facilitates the description of individual alcohol consumption via culturally informed animation features. This pilot study evaluated the Russia-specific version of the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool with regard to (1) its usability and acceptability in a primary healthcare setting, (2) the plausibility of its alcohol consumption assessment results and (3) the adequacy of its Russia-specific vessel and beverage selection. Methods: Convenience samples of 55 patients (47% female) and 15 healthcare practitioners (80% female) in 2 Russian primary healthcare facilities self-administered the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool and rated their experience on the Mobile Application Rating Scale – User Version. Usage data was automatically collected during app usage, and additional feedback on regional content was elicited in semi-structured interviews. Results: On average, patients completed the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool in 6:38 min (SD = 2.49, range = 3.00–17.16). User satisfaction was good, with all subscale Mobile Application Rating Scale – User Version scores averaging >3 out of 5 points. A majority of patients (53%) and practitioners (93%) would recommend the tool to ‘many people’ or ‘everyone’. Assessed alcohol consumption was plausible, with a low number (14%) of logically impossible entries. Most patients reported the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool to reflect all vessels (78%) and all beverages (71%) they typically used. Conclusion: High acceptability ratings by patients and healthcare practitioners, acceptable completion time, plausible alcohol usage assessment results and perceived adequacy of region-specific content underline the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool's potential to provide a novel approach to alcohol assessment in primary healthcare. After its validation, the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool might contribute to reducing alcohol-related harm by facilitating Screening and Brief Intervention implementation in Russia and beyond.
Wildfires play an essential role in the ecology of boreal forests.
In eastern Siberia, fire activity has been increasing in recent years, challenging the livelihoods of local communities. Intensifying fire regimes also increase disturbance pressure on the boreal forests, which currently protect the permafrost beneath from accelerated degradation.
However, long-term relationships between changes in fire regime and forest structure remain largely unknown.
We assess past fire-vegetation feedbacks using sedimentary proxy records from Lake Satagay, Central Yakutia, Siberia, covering the past c. 10,800 years.
Results from macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analyses indicate high amounts of burnt biomass during the Early Holocene, and that the present-day, low-severity surface fire regime has been in place since c. 4,500 years before present.
A pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation cover and a terrestrial plant record based on sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding suggest a pronounced shift in forest structure toward the Late Holocene.
Whereas the Early Holocene was characterized by postglacial open larch-birch woodlands, forest structure changed toward the modern, mixed larch-dominated closed-canopy forest during the Mid-Holocene.
We propose a potential relationship between open woodlands and high amounts of burnt biomass, as well as a mediating effect of dense larch forest on the climate-driven intensification of fire regimes.
Considering the anticipated increase in forest disturbances (droughts, insect invasions, and wildfires), higher tree mortality may force the modern state of the forest to shift toward an open woodland state comparable to the Early Holocene.
Such a shift in forest structure may result in a positive feedback on currently intensifying wildfires.
These new long-term data improve our understanding of millennial-scale fire regime changes and their relationships to changes of vegetation in Central Yakutia, where the local population is already being confronted with intensifying wildfire seasons.
In the Shadow of Ukraine
(2022)
In 2022, India captured global attention over its response to the war in Ukraine. While calling for both parties' return to diplomacy, India abstained from several United Nations resolutions condemning Russian aggression. For a country that ostensibly subscribes to the values of democracy and territorial integrity, its response appeared frustrating and contradictory, but it is broadly consistent with its long-standing policy of non-alignment. Although India's relationship with China is increasingly contentious, New Delhi is not yet fully convinced that it is in India's interest to swing westwards. The country's relations with Russia and China are deep, complex and substantive. In addition to the military and economic benefits it derives from its connection with Russia, New Delhi and Moscow share an avowed preference for a more equal, multipolar world. India will eventually have to reflect on the extent to which it can sustain its balancing act.
Gary Jacobsohn and Yaniv Roznai’s (2020) book Constitutional Revolution offers a sophisticated conceptual framework with a fascinating description of empirical occurrences of substantive revolutions in the practice and understanding of constitutionalism in Germany, India, Hungary, and Israel. While the conceptualization in the book and its empirical illustration clearly draw from regime transformations or substantive changes within democratic regimes, we know little about the extent to which substantive constitutional reforms are possible and meaningful in autocratic regimes. As their concept of constitutional revolution is ambiguous and requires a substantive engagement with an individual case at hand, we cannot sim- ply expect concept equivalence when expanding its use beyond a transitory or democratic context. Hence, in this contribution I ask, What constitutes a constitutional revolution in an autocratic regime? To shed light on this question, I rely on the expectation that we do not find important differences in the substance of autocratic constitutions compared to democratic constitutions. Autocratic elites, also, under- stand the possibilities of constitutional change and respond to them as they offer regime stability and simply more power, but that is not a revolution. Therefore, I argue that the substantive meaning of an amendment must be a departure from the inherent logic of the constitution, especially outside the standard procedures for autocratic ruling. Thus, in this paper I discuss the theoretical implications of a constitutional revolution under autocracy without a regime transition and provide empirical evidence from various constitutional amendments and de facto reforms in Russia. I show that a constitutional revolution is not always the most important or most discussed constitutional change—at least, not in an autocratic context. This discussion has important implications for understanding constitutionalism and autocratic stability and the largely overlooked relationship between substance and process in nondemocratic settings.
Is translation child's play?
(2021)
1765 and 1767 saw the publication of the German, respectively the English translation of Lomonosov's Kratkij rossijskij letopisec s rodosloviem (1760). For the very first time the European reading public could find out how Russians saw their own history. These translations testified to Russia's ascent both as an empire and as a part of European learned society, and were made by youths who wanted to further their own career and were neither professional translators nor historians. In this article, we argue that the translations of Lomonosov's Kratkij rossijskij letopisec should not be studied as an isolated act of cultural transfer but as an episode in a longer history of circulation of knowledge. We demonstrate the complexity of this circulation by reassessing the 'quality' of these translations and positioning them in that longer history of circulation of knowledge by analysing the distribution of historical concepts (Begriffe) in Lomonosov's original and its translations.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
This article explores the various futures of relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. After distilling two major drivers we construct a future compass in order to conceive of four futures of relations between the EU and Ukraine. Our scenarios aim to challenge deep-rooted assumptions on the EU’s neighbourhood with Ukraine: How will the politico-economic challenges in the European countries influence the EU’s approach towards the East? Will more EU engagement in Ukraine contribute to enduring peace? Does peace always come with stability? Which prospects does the idea of Intermarium have? Are the pivotal transformation players in Ukraine indeed oligarchs or rather small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs? After presenting our scenarios, we propose indicators to know in the years to come, along which path future relations do develop. By unearthing surprising developments we hope to provoke innovative thoughts on Eastern Europe in times of post truth societies, confrontation between states and hybrid warfare.
This article explores the multi-directional geographic trajectories and ties of Jews who came to the United States in the 19th century, working to complicate simplistic understandings of “German” Jewish immigration. It focuses on the case study of Henry Cohn, an ordinary Russian-born Jew whose journeys took him to Prussia, New York, Savannah, and California. Once in the United States he returned to Europe twice, the second time permanently, although a grandson ended up in California, where he worked to ensure the preservation of Cohn’s records. This story highlights how Jews navigated and transgressed national boundaries in the 19th century and the limitations of the historical narratives that have been constructed from their experiences.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
This article offers a reconstruction of the vegetation and climate of the south-western Siberian Baraba forest-steppe area during the last ca. 8000 years. The analysis of palynological data from the sediment core of Lake Bolshie Toroki using quantitative methods has made it possible to reconstruct changes of the dominant types of vegetation and mean July air temperatures. Coniferous forests grew in the vicinity of the lake, and mean July air temperatures were similar to present-day ones between 7.9 and 7.0 kyr BP. The warmest and driest climate occurred at 7.0-5.0 kyr BP. At that time, the region had open steppe landscapes; birch groves began to spread. A cooling trend is seen after 5.5 kyr BP, when forest-steppe began to emerge. Steppe communities started to dominate again after 1.5 kyr BP. Mean July air temperatures lower than now are reconstructed for the period of 1.9-1 kyr BP, and then the temperatures became similar to present-day ones. Comparing the archaeological data on the types of economy of the population which inhabited the Baraba forest-steppe with the data on changes in the natural environment revealed a connection between the gradual transition from hunting and fishing to livestock breeding and the development of forest-steppe landscapes with a decrease in the area covered by forests. The development of the forest-steppe as an ecotonic landscape starting around 5 kyr BP might have contributed to the coexistence of several archaeological cultures with different types of economy on the same territory. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
QuestionHow important is the effect of micro-relief and vegetation type on the characteristics of vascular plants and bryophytes in low-centred polygons? LocationSiberian Arctic, Russia. MethodsEight low-centred polygons in northern Siberia were surveyed for vegetation along transects running from the rim to the pond via the rim-pond transition of each polygon and across a vegetation type gradient from open forest to tundra. ResultsThe cover of vascular plants and bryophytes displays no significant differences between the rim and rim-pond transition but is significantly lower in the pond section of the polygons. Alpha-diversity of vascular plants decreases strongly from rim to pond, whereas bryophyte diversity in pond plots is significantly distinct from the rim and the rim-pond transition. There is no clear trend in cover for either plant group along the vegetation type transect and only a weak trend in -diversity. However, both gradients are reflected in the compositional turnover. The applied indicator species analysis identified taxa characteristic of certain environmental conditions. Among others, we found vascular plants primarily characteristic of the rim and bryophyte taxa characteristic of each micro-relief level and vegetation type. ConclusionsThe observed gradual pattern in -diversity and composition of polygonal vegetation suggests that micro-relief is the main driver of changes in the vegetation composition, while vegetation type and the related forest cover change are of subordinate importance for polygonal vegetation patterns along the Siberian tree line.
Fat loads were quantified for 2125 Yellow-browed Warblers Phylloscopus inornatus trapped at a stop-over site in Far East Russia during autumn migration. Flight ranges of 660–820 km were estimated for the fattest individuals, suggesting that they would need to stop for refuelling at least six times to reach their wintering areas in South East Asia.
Während die EU eine schwere Krise erlebt, denkt Russlands Präsident Putin zusammen mit seinen Amtskollegen aus Belarus und Kasachstan laut über die Schaffung einer Eurasischen Union nach. Basierend auf bereits existierenden Organisationsformen im postsowjetischen Raum soll diese Vereinigung zur Brücke zwischen Europa und Asien werden. Welche Hürden dieses Integrationsprojekt überwinden muss und ob das Ganze auf eine Wiederbelebung der UdSSR hinausläuft, analysiert Sergej Birukov. Ergänzt wird das Spezial durch einen Konferenzbericht zum Berliner Eurasischen Klub sowie einem Beitrag zu Kasachstans Rolle bei der Schaffung der ersten kernwaffenfreien Zone in der nördlichen Hemisphäre.
The article compares the postdemocracy with the postsocialism. At first the paper analyzes the debate of the postdemocracy and points out an analytical model of postdemocracy. Afterwards the paper searches for symptoms of the postdemocracy within the case of Russia which appears as one possible ideal type of postsocialism. The comparison shows that both post-phenomenons are two sides of one global process of transformation. However, the case of postsocialism acts as a trendsetter. The postsocialist Russia sets an example for the possible developments of the postdemocracy.
Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one’s own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.
Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one’s own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.
Russland sieht in der Shanghai-Gruppe ein wichtiges außen- und sicherheitspolitisches Instrument. Damit sollen sowohl das internationale Profil verbessert als auch militärische Interessen (Waffenexporte) umgesetzt werden. Obwohl sich das Verhältnis zu China deutlich verbesserte, ist es russisches Interesse, mittels der SCO Chinas Einfluss in Zentralasien zu begrenzen. Angesichts der strategischen Differenzen zwischen Moskau und Peking stellt sich das Problem des möglichen Bruchs der Shanghai-Gruppe.
Der Anstieg der Energiepreise kann zu einer länger anhaltenden Verteuerung von Gütertransporten führen. Welche Auswirkungen haben steigende Transportkosten auf die Entwicklung von Städtesystemen? Ein solcher Transportkostenanstieg hat in der Russischen Föderation nach der Preisliberalisierung 1992 real, d.h. in Relation zu den Preisen anderer Gütergruppen stattgefunden. Gleichzeitig stellt die Bevölkerungsstatistik der Russischen Föderation Daten bereit, mit deren Hilfe Hypothesen zur Entwicklung von Städtesystemen unter dem Einfluss steigender Transportkosten geprüft werden können. Diese Daten werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit umfassend ausgewertet. Den theoretischen Hintergrund liefert die Modellierung eines Städtesystems mit linearer Raumstruktur im Rahmen der Neuen Ökonomischen Geographie. Damit wird ein Werkzeug geschaffen, das auch auf weiträumige Städtesysteme mit ausgeprägter Bandstruktur angewendet werden kann. Die hier erstmals erfolgte ausführliche Erläuterung des zu Grunde liegenden Theorieansatzes versteht sich als Ergänzung der Standardlehrbücher der Raumwirtschaftstheorie. Die Ergebnisse der empirischen Untersuchung bestätigen die Prognose des Modells, dass in großflächigen Ländern bzw. Regionen mit Ähnlichkeit zur unterstellten Raumstruktur ein Anstieg der Transportkosten Konzentrationstendenzen in den Zentren befördert, während die peripheren Regionen zunehmend abgekoppelt werden.
From the Russian perspective, the author describes the danger of a hegemonic US, dominating the world’s fate, weakening the UN and endangering peace. A counterweight to the US domination could be stronger ties between Western Europe and Russia. The rise of the Franco-German-Russian troika has been the only positive effect of the Iraq war. But not all members of the EU seem to recognise the necessity of a „Great Europe” from Reykjavik to Wladiwostok. Especially the new members of NATO and EU are vassals of the US and exhibit strong anti-Russian resentments.
Discourses of danger are a significant part of security and identity politics. They serve well for analysing the construction of both, security through identity politics, and identity through security policy. In this article, the declaration of the Vilnius Group of February 2003 is used as a point of departure. The author discusses the construction of state and national identities in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania throughout the 1990s by means of security policy, danger discourse, and mechanisms of exclusion. He argues that the replacement of Russia as a threat to Baltic security (in documents and policy manifestations) is a reflection of a relaxation of Baltic-Russian relations as well as an ingredient of the pre-accession strategy towards NATO. Political-military threats are replaced by cultural ones, while Russia, hitherto frequently represented as a concrete danger, gives way to abstractions such as „international terrorism“.
Gleich dem Individuum benötigen Gesellschaften Vergangenheit in erster Linie zur Selbstdefinition. Eine feste Struktur gesellschaftlich geteilter Vergangenheitsreferenzen erzeugt ein überindividuelles kollektives Gedächtnis, das soziale Rollen und Identitäten determiniert. Was aber geschieht, wenn eine Gemeinschaft ihre Vergangenheit oder wesentliche Teile dieser nicht erinnert? Am Beispiel Russlands wird dargestellt, warum tragische Ereignisse – in diesem Fall die stalinistischen Repressionen – nicht kommemoriert werden und in welcher Weise sich diese weitgehend verdrängten Erinnerungen und die defizitär ausgebildete Erinnerungskultur auf die heutige russländische Gesellschaft auswirken.
Europäische Zeitenwenden
(2009)
Kooperative Beziehungen zu Russland sind angesichts der politisch-wirtschaftlichen Interessenlage, der geopolitischen Realitäten im Osten Europas und des geschichtlichen Hintergrundes in der deutschen politischen Klasse Konsens. Mit dem Begriff der strategischen Partnerschaft werden die deutsch-russischen Beziehungen immer wieder charakterisiert, d. h. diese Kooperation soll weit über die normalen Interessen Deutschlands hinausgehen und eine globalpolitische Dimension erreichen.
Der Koordinator für deutsch-amerikanische Zusammenarbeit im Auswärtigen Amt, Karsten Voigt, attestiert der Außenpolitik der Großen Koalition eine erfolgreiche, solide Arbeit. Diese setzt die international geschätzte deutsche Kontinuität und Verlässlichkeit fort; auch in den zuletzt als schwierig empfundenen Beziehungen zu Russland und den USA.
Wie stabil ist die Außenpolitik der Großen Koalition? Aufgrund ihrer Position als stellvertretende außenpolitische Sprecherin der SPD ist es der Autorin möglich, neben den Gemeinsamkeiten auch die entscheidenden Unterschiede zu beleuchten. Vor dem Hintergrund mehrerer Beispiele, wie dem EU-Beitritt der Türkei, stellt sie den Konsens zwischen CDU/ CSU und SPD als fragil heraus.
Die „Gasabhängigkeit“ Europas von Russland ist ein Scheinproblem. Es gibt gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten, die auch Russlands Handeln begrenzen. Für den Russlandexperten Roland Götz wird das politisch motivierte Vorantreiben einer von Russland unabhängigen Energieversorgung nicht nur erfolglos bleiben, sondern auch den Aufbau eines partnerschaftlichen Verhältnisses zwischen Europa und Russland erschweren.
Die Putin-Medwedjew-Rochade
(2008)
Die Globalisierung Russlands wird durch Rohstoffexporte und hohe Investitionen des Westens in den russischen Energiesektor vorangetrieben. Gleichzeitig festigt sich ein hybrides politisches System mit sowohl autoritären als auch demokratischen Elementen. Soll Russland ein zuverlässlicher Partner des Westens bleiben, müssen die russischen Interessen sowie die neue außenpolitische Stärke berücksichtigt werden.
Der Kampf um die parteipolitische Macht in der Russländischen Föderation : die KPRF 1991 - 1996
(2007)
Wahlen sind wichtige Bestandteile demokratischer Strukturen und werfen schon im Vorfeld ihrer Durchführung ihre Schatten voraus. Die Russländische Föderation (RF) stellt hierbei keine Ausnahme dar, aber können in ihrem Falle nur selten westeuropäische Maßstäbe angewandt werden. Russischen Uhren ticken anders. Für die RF gelten keine Schablonen, keine allgemein übertragbaren Parameter. Fragen der Sozialisierung, Mentalitätsfragen und Fragen nach der politischen Kultur spielen hierbei in der Realität eine entscheidende Rolle. Es ist wichtig, die Akteure im System selbst zu untersuchen, nicht aber, wie es in der Literatur stattfindet, mit dem Blick auf die Wirkung der Einzelakteure auf das Gesamtsystem, sondern des Gesamtsystems auf einen Einzelakteur. Hierbei analysiert die Arbeit die spezifischen Eigenarten des russländischen politischen Systems, verdeutlicht die Entwicklung des politischen Lebens in der RF, besonders der politischen Vereinigungen und streicht die rechtliche Stellung sowie die politischen Lager heraus. Im vereinigungspolitischen Spektrum der RF haben sich nur wenige Konstanten herauskristallisieren können. Einer dieser Fixpunkte ist in der Kommunistischen Partei der Russländischen Föderation (KPRF) zu sehen. Die Vereinigung hatte es geschafft, wie ein Phönix aus der Asche aufzusteigen. Sich nicht nur über die Zeit des Putsches 1993 zu retten, sondern in der Folgezeit zur einzigen Vereinigung zu erwachsen, der es möglich war, sich gegen die rechtspopulistische Liberal-Demokratische Partei Russlands (LDPR), die Parteien der Macht´, aber auch gegen JABLOKO und die Jelzin-Administration zu behaupten. Keine Vereinigung dieser Zeit schaffte es, so viele Mitglieder und Wähler an sich zu binden, wie es die kommunistische Partei unter G. A. Sjuganow vermochte. Letztendlich ist es der KPRF gelungen, mit G. A. Sjuganow den aussichtsreichsten Gegenkandidaten zu B. N. Jelzin aufzubauen. Die Präsidentschaftswahl von 1996 ist, wie keine nach ihr, denkbar knapp ausgefallen und erst in der Stichwahl entschieden worden. Gleichsam stellt das Jahr 1996 für die Vereinigung eine tief greifende Zäsur dar. Für die Erfolge und Niederlagen der KPRF ist es von Vorteil, die sie beeinflussenden Faktoren in exogene, der Makroebene politische System der RF´ und in endogene, der Mikroebene KPRF´ entstammende Faktoren zu unterteilen. Auf die exogenen Faktoren, wie beispielsweise die exponierte Stellung des Präsidenten, eine fehlende Parteiengesetzgebung, die marginale Stellung der Staatsduma, die Politikverdrossenheit und Sozialisierung der Wahlbevölkerung oder die geografischen Dimensionen der Föderation, konnte die Sjuganow-Vereinigung nur geringfügig Einfluss nehmen. Die endogenen Faktoren, wie das politische Programm, das Statut oder eine fehlende innerparteiliche Homogenität, lagen in den Händen der Vereinigung und konnten von ihr aktiv, aus ihr heraus gestaltet werden. Für den angestrebten Sieg zur Präsidentschaftswahl 1996 oblag es der KPRF, geeignete Strategien zu finden. Als für das Ziel positiv kann der Schwenk von der unversöhnlichen zur konstruktiven Opposition, eine breite Koalitionsbereitschaft, das Nutzen dichter Netzwerke und ein breites Angebot programmatischer Schwerpunkte, gekoppelt an den Passus Partei leninistischen Typs´ gewertet werden. Dass G. A. Sjuganow in der Vereinigung umstritten war, der Vorwurf des fehlenden Charismas im Raum stand und es die Vereinigung nicht vermochte, ausreichend Mobilisierungspotential gegenüber Wählern außerhalb der KPRF-Stammwählerschaft zu erreichen, sind als dem Ziel abträglich zu betrachten. Ferner verfolgte die KPRF einen grauen, klassischen, aber z. T. unprofessionellen Wahlkampf, der der Kremladministration nicht gefährlich werden konnte und dem modernen, stark medialen Wahlkampf B. N. Jelzins nichts entgegenzusetzen hatte. Eine einseitige Ausrichtung auf russisch-nationale Themen kann ebenfalls als strategischer Fehler der KPRF gesehen werden, zeigten doch Umfragen, dass dem Großteil der Wahlbevölkerung mehr an der Verbesserung der sozial-ökonomischen Lage gelegen war, als an nationaler Rhetorik. Eine von exogener Seite geschürte Kommunismusangst und das Fehlen eines positiven Alternativprogramms von endogener Seite runden das Scheitern der KPRF zur Präsidentschaftswahl 1996 ab. Die Arbeit zeigt, dass die exogenen, wie auch endogenen Faktoren sowohl hemmend, als auch fördernd auf die KPRF einwirken konnten. Woran die KPRF beim Erreichen des Wahlsieges von 1996 letztendlich scheiterte, kann aus keiner der beiden Seiten eindeutig abgeleitet werden. Sowohl die endogenen, als auch die exogenen Faktoren leisteten ihren Betrag zum Scheitern der Vereinigung, doch muss festgehalten werden, dass die Einflussnahme der KPRF auf die hemmenden Faktoren im exogenen Bereich hätte stärker ausfallen können.
The overall objective of the study is an elaboration of quantitative methods for national conservation planning, coincident with the international approach ('hotspots' approach). This objective requires a solution of following problems: 1) How to estimate large scale vegetation diversity from abiotic factors only? 2) How to adopt 'global hotspots' approach for bordering of national biodiversity hotspots? 3) How to set conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots? 4) How to design large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity? The case study for national conservation planning is Russia. Conclusions: · Large scale vegetation diversity can be predicted to a major extent by climatically determined latent heat for evaporation and geometrical structure of landscape, described as an altitudinal difference. The climate based model reproduces observed species number of vascular plant for different areas of the world with an average error 15% · National biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from biotic or abiotic data using corrected for a country the quantitative criteria for plant endemism and land use from the 'global hotspots' approach · Quantitative conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots can be set using national data for Red Data book species · Large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity can be designed by combination of abiotic method at national scale (identification of large scale hotspots) and biotic method at regional scale (analysis of species data from Red Data book)