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The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes.
Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988–2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research.
This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram.
To conclude, these three stages–from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard–provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.
The Himalayan thrust belt comprises three in-sequence foreland-propagating orogen-scale faults, the Main Central thrust, the Main Boundary thrust, and the Main Frontal thrust. Recently, the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system has been recognized as an additional, potentially orogen-scale shear zone in the proximal footwall of the Main Central thrust. The timing of the Munsiari, Ramgarh, and Shumar thrusts and their role in Himalayan tectonics are disputed. We present 31 new zircon (U–Th)/He ages from a profile across the central Himachal Himalaya in the Beas River area. Within a ∼40 km wide belt northeast of the Kullu–Larji–Rampur window, ages ranging from to constrain a distinct episode of rapid Pliocene to Present exhumation; north and south of this belt, zircon (U–Th)/He ages are older ( to ). We attribute the Pliocene rapid exhumation episode to basal accretion to the Himalayan thrust belt and duplex formation in the Lesser Himalayan sequence including initiation of the Munsiari thrust. Pecube thermokinematic modelling suggests exhumation rates of ∼2–3 mm/yr from 4–7 to 0 Ma above the duplex contrasting with lower (<0.3 mm/yr) middle-late Miocene exhumation rates. The Munsiari thrust terminates laterally in central Himachal Pradesh. In the NW Indian Himalaya, the Main Central thrust zone comprises the sheared basal sections of the Greater Himalayan sequence and the mylonitic ‘Bajaura nappe’ of Lesser Himalayan affinity. We correlate the Bajaura unit with the Ramgarh thrust sheet in Nepal based on similar lithologies and the middle Miocene age of deformation. The Munsiari thrust in the central Himachal Himalaya is several Myr younger than deformation in the Bajaura and Ramgarh thrust sheets. Our results illustrate the complex and segmented nature of the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system.
Formation of a Rain Shadow
(2018)
We measure the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope composition of authigenic clays from Himalayan foreland sediments (Siwalik Group), and from present day small stream waters in eastern Bhutan to explore the impact of uplift of the Shillong Plateau on rain shadow formation over the Himalayan foothills. Stable isotope data from authigenic clay minerals (<2 μm) suggest the presence of three paleoclimatic periods during deposition of the Siwalik Group, between ∼7 and ∼1 Ma. The mean δ18O value in paleometeoric waters, which were in equilibrium with clay minerals, is ∼2.5‰ lower than in modern meteoric and stream waters at the elevation of the foreland basin. We discuss the factors that could have changed the isotopic composition of water over time and we conclude that (a) the most likely and significant cause for the increase in meteoric water δ18O values over time is the “amount effect,” specifically, a decrease in mean annual precipitation. (b) The change in mean annual precipitation over the foreland basin and foothills of the Himalaya is the result of orographic effect caused by the Shillong Plateau's uplift. The critical elevation of the Shillong Plateau required to induce significant orographic precipitation was attained after ∼1.2 Ma. (c) By applying scale analysis, we estimate that the mean annual precipitation over the foreland basin of the eastern Bhutan Himalayas has decreased by a factor of 1.7–2.5 over the last 1–3 million years.