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The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation from 40 years of gauge data in the central Himalaya
(2022)
The topography of the Himalaya exerts a substantial control on the spatial distribution of monsoonal rainfall, which is a vital water source for the regional economy and population. But the occurrence of short-lived and high-intensity precipitation results in socio-economic losses. This study relies on 40 years of daily data from 204 ground stations in Nepal to derive extreme precipitation thresholds, amounts, and days at the 95th percentile. We additionally determine the precipitation magnitude-frequency relation. We observe that extreme precipitation amounts follow an almost uniform band parallel to topographic contour lines in the southern Himalaya mountains in central and eastern Nepal but not in western Nepal. The relationship of extreme precipitation indices with topographic relief shows that extreme precipitation thresholds decrease with increasing elevation, but extreme precipitation days increase in higher elevation areas. Furthermore, stations above 1 km elevation exhibit a power-law relation in the rainfall magnitude-frequency framework. Stations at higher elevations generally have lower values of power-law exponents than low elevation areas. This suggests a fundamentally different behaviour of the rainfall distribution and an increased occurrence of extreme rainfall storms in the high elevation areas of Nepal.
Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21-2.19% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45% to 9.67%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83-4.75% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced 3.47-28.3% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change.
Variation of deuterium excess in surface waters across a 5000-m elevation gradient in eastern Nepal
(2020)
The strong elevation gradient of the Himalaya allows for investigation of altitude and orographic impacts on surface water delta O-18 and delta D stable isotope values. This study differentiates the time- and altitude-variable contributions of source waters to the Arun River in eastern Nepal. It provides isotope data along a 5000-m gradient collected from tributaries as well as groundwater, snow, and glacial-sourced surface waters and time-series data from April to October 2016. We find nonlinear trends in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates with high-elevation lapse rates (4000-6000 masl) 5-7 times more negative than low-elevation lapse rates (1000-3000 masl). A distinct seasonal signal in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates indicates time-variable source-water contributions from glacial and snow meltwater as well as precipitation transitions between the Indian Summer Monsoon and Winter Westerly Disturbances. Deuterium excess correlates with the extent of snowpack and tracks melt events during the Indian Summer Monsoon season. Our analysis identifies the influence of snow and glacial melt waters on river composition during low-flow conditions before the monsoon (April/May 2016) followed by a 5-week transition to the Indian Summer Monsoon-sourced rainfall around mid-June 2016. In the post-monsoon season, we find continued influence from glacial melt waters as well as ISM-sourced groundwater.
Geochemical processes change the microstructure of rocks and thereby affect their physical behaviour at the macro scale. A micro-computer tomography (micro-CT) scan of a typical reservoir sandstone is used to numerically examine the impact of three spatial alteration patterns on pore morphology, permeability and elastic moduli by correlating precipitation with the local flow velocity magnitude. The results demonstrate that the location of mineral growth strongly affects the permeability decrease with variations by up to four orders in magnitude. Precipitation in regions of high flow velocities is characterised by a predominant clogging of pore throats and a drastic permeability reduction, which can be roughly described by the power law relation with an exponent of 20. A continuous alteration of the pore structure by uniform mineral growth reduces the permeability comparable to the power law with an exponent of four or the Kozeny-Carman relation. Preferential precipitation in regions of low flow velocities predominantly affects smaller throats and pores with a minor impact on the flow regime, where the permeability decrease is considerably below that calculated by the power law with an exponent of two. Despite their complete distinctive impact on hydraulics, the spatial precipitation patterns only slightly affect the increase in elastic rock properties with differences by up to 6.3% between the investigated scenarios. Hence, an adequate characterisation of the spatial precipitation pattern is crucial to quantify changes in hydraulic rock properties, whereas the present study shows that its impact on elastic rock parameters is limited. The calculated relations between porosity and permeability, as well as elastic moduli can be applied for upscaling micro-scale findings to reservoir-scale models to improve their predictive capabilities, what is of paramount importance for a sustainable utilisation of the geological subsurface.
Arboreal epiphytes (plants residing in forest canopies) are present across all major climate zones and play important roles in forest biogeochemistry. The substantial water storage capacity per unit area of the epiphyte "bucket" is a key attribute underlying their capability to influence forest hydrological processes and their related mass and energy flows. It is commonly assumed that the epiphyte bucket remains saturated, or near-saturated, most of the time; thus, epiphytes (particularly vascular epiphytes) can store little precipitation, limiting their impact on the forest canopy water budget. We present evidence that contradicts this common assumption from (i) an examination of past research; (ii) new datasets on vascular epiphyte and epi-soil water relations at a tropical montane cloud forest (Monteverde, Costa Rica); and (iii) a global evaluation of non-vascular epiphyte saturation state using a process-based vegetation model, LiBry. All analyses found that the external and internal water storage capacity of epiphyte communities is highly dynamic and frequently available to intercept precipitation. Globally, non-vascular epiphytes spend <20% of their time near saturation and regionally, including the humid tropics, model results found that non-vascular epiphytes spend similar to 1/3 of their time in the dry state (0-10% of water storage capacity). Even data from Costa Rican cloud forest sites found the epiphyte community was saturated only 1/3 of the time and that internal leaf water storage was temporally dynamic enough to aid in precipitation interception. Analysis of the epi-soils associated with epiphytes further revealed the extent to which the epiphyte bucket emptied-as even the canopy soils were often <50% saturated (29-53% of all days observed). Results clearly show that the epiphyte bucket is more dynamic than currently assumed, meriting further research on epiphyte roles in precipitation interception, redistribution to the surface and chemical composition of "net" precipitation waters reaching the surface.
EDTA and NTA effectively tune the mineralization of calcium phosphate from bulk aqueous solution
(2017)
This study describes the effects of nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA) and ethylenediaminotetraacetic acid (EDTA) on themineralization of calciumphosphate from bulk aqueous solution. Mineralization was performed between pH 6 and 9 and with NTA or EDTA concentrations of 0, 5, 10, and 15 mM. X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy show that at low pH, mainly brushite precipitates and at higher pH, mostly hydroxyapatite forms. Both additives alter the morphology of the precipitates. Without additive, brushite precipitates as large plates. With NTA, the morphology changes to an unusual rod-like shape. With EDTA, the edges of the particles are rounded and disk-like particles form. Conductivity and pH measurements suggest that the final products form through several intermediate steps.
In this study, we detect high percentile rainfall events in the eastern central Andes, based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25°, a temporal resolution of 3 h, and for the duration from 2001 to 2018. We identify three areas with high mean accumulated rainfall and analyze their atmospheric behaviour and rainfall characteristics with specific focus on extreme events. Extreme events are defined by events above the 95th percentile of their daily mean accumulated rainfall. Austral summer (DJF) is the period of the year presenting the most frequent extreme events over these three regions. Daily statistics show that the spatial maxima, as well as their associated extreme events, are produced during the night. For the considered period, ERA-Interim reanalysis data, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 0.75° x0.75° spatial and 6-hourly temporal resolutions, were used for the analysis of the meso- and synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Night- and day-time differences indicate a nocturnal overload of northerly and northeasterly low-level humidity flows arriving from tropical South America. Under these conditions, cooling descending air from the mountains may find unstable air at the surface, giving place to the development of strong local convection. Another possible mechanism is presented here: a forced ascent of the low-level flow due to the mountains, disrupting the atmospheric stratification and generating vertical displacement of air trajectories. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in T-mode is applied to day- and night-time data during the maximum and extreme events. The results show strong correlation areas over each subregion under study during night-time, whereas during day-time no defined patterns are found. This confirms the observed nocturnal behavior of rainfall within these three hotspots.
Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure – the weighted degree–betweenness (WDB) measure – to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail.
Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure – the weighted degree–betweenness (WDB) measure – to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail.
Arboreal epiphytes (plants residing in forest canopies) are present across all major climate zones and play important roles in forest biogeochemistry. The substantial water storage capacity per unit area of the epiphyte “bucket” is a key attribute underlying their capability to influence forest hydrological processes and their related mass and energy flows. It is commonly assumed that the epiphyte bucket remains saturated, or near-saturated, most of the time; thus, epiphytes (particularly vascular epiphytes) can store little precipitation, limiting their impact on the forest canopy water budget. We present evidence that contradicts this common assumption from (i) an examination of past research; (ii) new datasets on vascular epiphyte and epi-soil water relations at a tropical montane cloud forest (Monteverde, Costa Rica); and (iii) a global evaluation of non-vascular epiphyte saturation state using a process-based vegetation model, LiBry. All analyses found that the external and internal water storage capacity of epiphyte communities is highly dynamic and frequently available to intercept precipitation. Globally, non-vascular epiphytes spend <20% of their time near saturation and regionally, including the humid tropics, model results found that non-vascular epiphytes spend ~1/3 of their time in the dry state (0–10% of water storage capacity). Even data from Costa Rican cloud forest sites found the epiphyte community was saturated only 1/3 of the time and that internal leaf water storage was temporally dynamic enough to aid in precipitation interception. Analysis of the epi-soils associated with epiphytes further revealed the extent to which the epiphyte bucket emptied—as even the canopy soils were often <50% saturated (29–53% of all days observed). Results clearly show that the epiphyte bucket is more dynamic than currently assumed, meriting further research on epiphyte roles in precipitation interception, redistribution to the surface and chemical composition of “net” precipitation waters reaching the surface.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations.
EDTA and NTA effectively tune the mineralization of calcium phosphate from bulk aqueous solution
(2017)
This study describes the effects of nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA) and ethylenediaminotetraacetic acid (EDTA) on themineralization of calciumphosphate from bulk aqueous solution. Mineralization was performed between pH 6 and 9 and with NTA or EDTA concentrations of 0, 5, 10, and 15 mM. X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy show that at low pH, mainly brushite precipitates and at higher pH, mostly hydroxyapatite forms. Both additives alter the morphology of the precipitates. Without additive, brushite precipitates as large plates. With NTA, the morphology changes to an unusual rod-like shape. With EDTA, the edges of the particles are rounded and disk-like particles form. Conductivity and pH measurements suggest that the final products form through several intermediate steps.
BACKROUND: Few studies have been carried out to connect nutrients recovery from wastewater and heavy metals immobilization in contaminated soil. To achieve the goal, ammonia nitrogen (AN) and phosphorus (P) were recovered from rare-earth wastewater by using the formation of struvite, which was used as the amendment with plant ash for copper, lead and chromium immobilization. RESULTS: AN removal efficiency and residual P reached 95.32 +/- 0.73% and 6.14 +/- 1.72mgL(-1) under optimal conditions: pH= 9.0, n(Mg): n(N): n(P)= 1.2: 1: 1.1, which were obtained using response surface methodology (RSM). The minimum available concentrations of Cu, Pb and Cr (CPC) separately reduced to 320.82 mg kg(-1), 190.77 mg kg(-1) and 121.46 mg kg(-1) with increasing immobilization time at the mass ratio of phosphate precipitate (PP)/plant ash (PA) of 1: 3. Humic acid (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) were beneficial to immobilize Cu, both of which showed no effect or even a negative effect on Pb and Cr immobilization.
The isotopic composition of water in ice sheets is extensively used to infer past climate changes. In low-accumulation regions their interpretation is, however, challenged by poorly constrained effects that may influence the initial isotope signal during and after deposition of the snow. This is reflected in snow-pit isotope data from Kohnen Station, Antarctica, which exhibit a seasonal cycle but also strong interannual variations that contradict local temperature observations. These inconsistencies persist even after averaging many profiles and are thus not explained by local stratigraphic noise. Previous studies have suggested that post-depositional processes may significantly influence the isotopic composition of East Antarctic firn. Here, we investigate the importance of post-depositional processes within the open-porous firn (greater than or similar to 10 cm depth) at Kohnen Station by separating spatial from temporal variability. To this end, we analyse 22 isotope profiles obtained from two snow trenches and examine the temporal isotope modifications by comparing the new data with published trench data extracted 2 years earlier. The initial isotope profiles undergo changes over time due to downward advection, firn diffusion and densification in magnitudes consistent with independent estimates. Beyond that, we find further modifications of the original isotope record to be unlikely or small in magnitude (<< 1 parts per thousand RMSD). These results show that the discrepancy between local temperatures and isotopes most likely originates from spatially coherent processes prior to or during deposition, such as precipitation intermittency or systematic isotope modifications acting on drifting or loose surface snow.
The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
In active mountain belts with steep terrain, bedrock landsliding is a major erosional agent. In the Himalayas, landsliding is driven by annual hydro-meteorological forcing due to the summer monsoon and by rarer, exceptional events, such as earthquakes. Independent methods yield erosion rate estimates that appear to increase with sampling time, suggesting that rare, high-magnitude erosion events dominate the erosional budget. Nevertheless, until now, neither the contribution of monsoon and earthquakes to landslide erosion nor the proportion of erosion due to rare, giant landslides have been quantified in the Himalayas. We address these challenges by combining and analysing earthquake- and monsoon-induced landslide inventories across different timescales. With time series of 5 m satellite images over four main valleys in central Nepal, we comprehensively mapped landslides caused by the monsoon from 2010 to 2018. We found no clear correlation between monsoon properties and landsliding and a similar mean landsliding rate for all valleys, except in 2015, where the valleys
affected by the earthquake featured ∼ 5–8 times more landsliding than the pre-earthquake mean rate. The longterm size–frequency distribution of monsoon-induced landsliding (MIL) was derived from these inventories and from an inventory of landslides larger than ∼ 0.1 km 2 that occurred between 1972 and 2014. Using a published landslide inventory for the Gorkha 2015 earthquake, we derive the size–frequency distribution for earthquake-induced landsliding (EQIL). These two distributions are dominated by infrequent, large and giant landslides but under-predict an estimated Holocene frequency of giant landslides (> 1 km 3 ) which we derived from a literature compilation. This discrepancy can be resolved when modelling the effect of a full distribution of earthquakes of variable magnitude and when considering that a shallower earthquake may cause larger landslides. In this case, EQIL and MIL contribute about equally to a total long-term erosion of ∼ 2 ± 0.75 mm yr −1 in agreement with most thermo-chronological data. Independently of the specific total and relative erosion rates, the heavy-tailed size–frequency distribution from MIL and EQIL and the very large maximal landslide size in the Himalayas indicate that mean landslide erosion rates increase with sampling time, as has been observed for independent erosion estimates. Further, we find that the sampling timescale required to adequately capture the frequency of the largest landslides, which is necessary for deriving long-term mean erosion rates, is often much longer than the averaging time of cosmogenic 10 Be methods. This observation presents a strong caveat when interpreting spatial or temporal variability in erosion rates from this method. Thus, in areas where a very large, rare landslide contributes heavily to long-term erosion (as the Himalayas), we recommend 10 Be sample in catchments with source areas > 10 000 km 2 to reduce the method mean bias to below ∼ 20 % of the long-term erosion.
The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.
Trends in precipitation over Germany and the Rhine basin related to changes in weather patterns
(2017)
Precipitation as the central meteorological feature for agriculture, water security, and human well-being amongst others, has gained special attention ever since. Lack of precipitation may have devastating effects such as crop failure and water scarcity. Abundance of precipitation, on the other hand, may as well result in hazardous events such as flooding and again crop failure. Thus, great effort has been spent on tracking changes in precipitation and relating them to underlying processes. Particularly in the face of global warming and given the link between temperature and atmospheric water holding capacity, research is needed to understand the effect of climate change on precipitation.
The present work aims at understanding past changes in precipitation and other meteorological variables. Trends were detected for various time periods and related to associated changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results derived in this thesis may be used as the foundation for attributing changes in floods to climate change. Assumptions needed for the downscaling of large-scale circulation model output to local climate stations are tested and verified here.
In a first step, changes in precipitation over Germany were detected, focussing not only on precipitation totals, but also on properties of the statistical distribution, transition probabilities as a measure for wet/dry spells, and extreme precipitation events.
Shifting the spatial focus to the Rhine catchment as one of the major water lifelines of Europe and the largest river basin in Germany, detected trends in precipitation and other meteorological variables were analysed in relation to states of an ``optimal'' weather pattern classification. The weather pattern classification was developed seeking the best skill in explaining the variance of local climate variables.
The last question addressed whether observed changes in local climate variables are attributable to changes in the frequency of weather patterns or rather to changes within the patterns itself. A common assumption for a downscaling approach using weather patterns and a stochastic weather generator is that climate change is expressed only as a changed occurrence of patterns with the pattern properties remaining constant. This assumption was validated and the ability of the latest generation of general circulation models to reproduce the weather patterns was evaluated.
% Paper 1
Precipitation changes in Germany in the period 1951-2006 can be summarised briefly as negative in summer and positive in all other seasons. Different precipitation characteristics confirm the trends in total precipitation: while winter mean and extreme precipitation have increased, wet spells tend to be longer as well (expressed as increased probability for a wet day followed by another wet day). For summer the opposite was observed: reduced total precipitation, supported by decreasing mean and extreme precipitation and reflected in an increasing length of dry spells.
Apart from this general summary for the whole of Germany, the spatial distribution within the country is much more differentiated. Increases in winter precipitation are most pronounced in the north-west and south-east of Germany, while precipitation increases are highest in the west for spring and in the south for autumn. Decreasing summer precipitation was observed in most regions of Germany, with particular focus on the south and west.
The seasonal picture, however, was again differently represented in the contributing months, e.g.\ increasing autumn precipitation in the south of Germany is formed by strong trends in the south-west in October and in the south-east in November. These results emphasise the high spatial and temporal organisation of precipitation changes.
% Paper 2
The next step towards attributing precipitation trends to changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns was the derivation of a weather pattern classification that sufficiently stratifies the local climate variables under investigation. Focussing on temperature, radiation, and humidity in addition to precipitation, a classification based on mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and specific humidity was found to have the best skill in explaining the variance of the local variables. A rather high number of 40 patterns was selected, allowing typical pressure patterns being assigned to specific seasons by the associated temperature patterns. While the skill in explaining precipitation variance is rather low, better skill was achieved for radiation and, of course, temperature.
Most of the recent GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble were found to reproduce these weather patterns sufficiently well in terms of frequency, seasonality, and persistence.
% Paper 3
Finally, the weather patterns were analysed for trends in pattern frequency, seasonality, persistence, and trends in pattern-specific precipitation and temperature. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years were considered. Thus, the assumption of a constant link between patterns and local weather was tested rigorously. This assumption was found to hold true only partly. While changes in temperature are mainly attributable to changes in pattern frequency, for precipitation a substantial amount of change was detected within individual patterns.
Magnitude and even sign of trends depend highly on the selected time period. The frequency of certain patterns is related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes.
Changes in precipitation were found to be heterogeneous not only in space, but also in time - statements on trends are only valid for the specific time period under investigation. While some part of the trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale circulation, distinct changes were found within single weather patterns as well.
The results emphasise the need to analyse multiple periods for thorough trend detection wherever possible and add some note of caution to the application of downscaling approaches based on weather patterns, as they might misinterpret the effect of climate change due to neglecting within-type trends.